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In Moscow on Friday, a couple of days before Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, two of the West’s main adversaries – Russia and Iran – will sign a strategic partnership pact.

It will deepen a relationship that has blossomed since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Should the West be worried? Not according to Russia.

“This agreement, like our treaty with North Korea, is not directed against anyone,” foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier this week, referring to a similar pact Moscow signed with Pyongyang last year.

That treaty, however, included a mutual defence clause, with both countries pledging to come to the other’s aid if needed.

It instantly rang alarm bells in Washington, Kyiv, Seoul and beyond.

And now, little more than six months later, Ukraine says it has captured two North Korean soldiers on the battlefield – proof it claims that Russia has deployed thousands of Pyongyang’s troops to the frontline.

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It suggests the West’s fears were well-founded.

I expect the partnership with Iran will cause similar concern.

“Russia’s foreign policy major organising principle is now the prosecution of its war in Ukraine,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, told Sky News.

“Every country is assessed through the lens of what this country can bring to the battlefield effort. How can this country help Russia withstand economic pressure? And how can this relationship be instrumentalised by hard men in the Kremlin to punish the West?

“Iran neatly fits into the category.”

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un smile together in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Photo via AP, File)
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Vladimir Putin with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang last year. Pic: AP

The US and UK have already accused Tehran of providing Moscow with ballistic missiles and drones for use against Ukraine.

Both Russia and Iran deny the claim.

But defence is an area where the two countries will cooperate more closely as a result of this new partnership, which Mr Gabuev describes as the “symbolic icing on the cake”.

“The real cooperation is the underwater part of the iceberg, where Russia purchases drones, and designs for drones and missiles and various types of weapons that it needs for the battlefield in Ukraine,” he said.

“In return, Iran gets Russian technical expertise.”

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From Sept 2024: Blinken says ‘Russia has received Iranian missiles’

According to the Kremlin, the timing for the treaty signing is purely coincidental, and has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s inauguration.

“Let the conspiracy theorists entertain themselves,” said Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Coincidence or not, the optics are convenient for Russia.

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The pact serves as a pointed reminder to the West that the world is changing, and that, in Moscow’s view, the US-led rules-based global order is crumbling.

Mr Putin often speaks of his desire to create a multipolar world, free from Western imperialism and the hegemony of America.

He wants to show that his attempts are working, despite the West’s efforts to isolate Russia.

First North Korea, now Iran – solidarity through sanctions.

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Madeleine McCann suspect won’t face charges for foreseeable future, prosecutor tells Sky News

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Madeleine McCann suspect won't face charges for foreseeable future, prosecutor tells Sky News

The man suspected of abducting Madeleine McCann won’t face any charges in the foreseeable future, a prosecutor has told Sky News.

German drifter Christian B, who cannot be fully identified under his country’s privacy law, is expected to be freed from an unrelated jail sentence this year while police in three countries continue to search for evidence against him.

Prosecutor Hans Christian Wolters said: “There is currently no prospect of an indictment in the Maddie case.

“As things stand, the accused Christian B’s imprisonment will end in early September.”

Madeleine, aged three, was asleep with her younger twin siblings in the family’s Portuguese rented holiday apartment before mother Kate discovered her missing at around 10pm on 3 May, 2007.

Her parents were dining nearby on the complex with friends and taking turns to check on all their sleeping children every half an hour.

A man, who is a suspect in the disappearance of British toddler Madeleine McCann in Portugal, stands next to his lawyer Friedrich Fuelscher at his trial on unrelated sexual assault charges in Braunschweig, Germany, October 2, 2024. Christian B., is charged with three counts of aggravated rape and two counts of sexual abuse of children in Portugal between June 2007 and December 2000. Moritz Frankenberg/Pool via REUTERS
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Christian B at his trial on unrelated sexual assault charges in Germany last year. Pic: Reuters

Madeleine’s disappearance has become the world’s most mysterious missing child case.

Philipp Marquort, one of Christian B’s defence lawyers, welcomed the prosecutor’s pessimism about bringing charges.

He said: “This confirms the suspicions that we have repeatedly expressed, namely that there is no reliable evidence against our client.

“We regret that we have not yet been granted access to the investigation files. We have not yet been able to effectively counter the public prejudice arising from statements made by the prosecutor’s office.”

Christian B, 47, is in jail and coming to the end of his sentence for the rape of an elderly American woman in Praia da Luz, the Portuguese resort where Madeleine disappeared.

In October, he was acquitted on a series of rape and indecent assault charges after a non-jury trial in Germany, in which several references were made to his status as the main suspect in the Madeleine case.

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File photo dated 30/04/17 of Kate and Gerry McCann, whose daughter Madeleine disappeared from a holiday flat in Portugal seventeen years ago. They have released a statement on the 17th anniversary of her disappearance, saying "the absence still aches". Earlier this week, it was confirmed that up to a further ..192,000 has been granted by the Home Office for the Scotland Yard investigation into Madeleine's disappearance. Issue date: Friday May 3, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLICE Portugal. Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire....
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Kate and Gerry McCann. Pic: PA

The prosecutor said he was awaiting the court’s written judgment before launching an appeal against the acquittal. He believes the trial judges were biased against the prosecution.

If successful, he could apply for a new arrest warrant for Christian B to keep him in custody until a retrial with new judges.

He said: “We hope that the Federal Court of Justice will decide before the end of the accused’s imprisonment. If the Federal Court follows our legal opinion, we could apply for a new arrest warrant for the accused’s offences, so that the accused would then remain in custody beyond September 2025.

Mr Marquort said the defence team would oppose the prosecution’s appeal against the acquittal.

Prosecutor Mr Wolters has said in the past that he believes Madeleine is dead and that Christian B was responsible for her death. The suspect denies any involvement.

The case against Christian B is purely circumstantial; he’s alleged to have confessed to a friend that he abducted Madeleine, he has convictions for sex crimes against children, he was living in the area at the time, his mobile phone was close by when the young girl vanished and he re-registered one of his vehicles the next day.

The prosecutor won’t say what evidence he has to convince him Madeleine is dead, but he admitted he is still trying to find forensic evidence to link Christian B to the girl.

Christian B is acquitted of sex attacks not related to the Madeleine McCann case
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Christian B coming to the end of his sentence for the rape of an elderly woman

Jim Gamble, former head of the UK Child Exploitation and Online Protection centre, said he had expected the prosecutor to charge Christian B soon.

“He’s implied the whole way through that he has something more than the public are aware of,” he said.

“He’s made fairly definitive statements about whether Madeleine is alive or dead so you would expect their strategy to have been to charge him sooner rather than later.

“From what he’s said today I wonder if we’re witnessing the re-positioning of something to manage the disappointment that’ll come.”

Mr Wolters, who is based in Braunschweig, Lower Saxony, is investigating the case with the help of Portuguese police and detectives from Scotland Yard.

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Ex-Pakistan PM Imran Khan sentenced to 14 years in jail in corruption case – defence lawyer

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Ex-Pakistan PM Imran Khan sentenced to 14 years in jail in corruption case - defence lawyer

Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan has been given a 14-year jail sentence in a land corruption case, his lawyer has said.

The verdict in the case followed allegations of possible bribery involving land, which was exchanged for favours by real estate developer Malik Riaz Hussain.

It is linked to the Al Qadir Trust that Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi established while he was in office. Prosecutors say this was a front for the former prime minister.

It is the largest case of alleged financial wrongdoing against Khan and was delivered by an anti-corruption court in a prison in Rawalpindi, where the former prime minister has been jailed since August 2023.

Supports call for Imran Khan's release in Jwabi. Pic: Reuters
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The former prime minister has been jailed since August 2023, and says he has faced 150 cases. Pic: Reuters

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party insists the land was not for personal gain, and instead was meant for a spiritual educational institution.

Bibi was also convicted in the land corruption case. Local outlet Geo News reported that she was taken into custody shortly after the verdict, having been out on bail.

The PTI said in a statement: “Whilst we wait for detailed decision, it’s important to note that, the Al Qadir Trust case against Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi lacks any solid foundation and is bound to collapse.”

Omar Ayub Khan, a senior PTI leader, added: “This is a bogus case, and we will approach an appeals court against this decision.”

The 72-year-old, also a World Cup-winning cricketer, was removed from office in 2022 by a vote of no confidence. He claims he has faced more than 150 criminal cases since then.

The land corruption case centres on the use of £190m that the UK repatriated to Pakistan in 2019 after Hussain forfeited cash and assets in a British criminal probe.

Khan was alleged to have then used the money to pay fines against the tycoon for the illegal acquisition of government lands at below-market value.

Former interior minister Rana Sanaullah alleged in 2023 that Hussain gave land in Jhelum and Islamabad to the Al Qadir Trust in exchange for that favour.

After Khan’s sentence, Pakistan’s information minister Marriyum Aurangzeb said it was the country’s largest corruption case.

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Including the Al Qadir Trust corruption case, Khan has been charged with graft and misuse of power, and has also been accused of inciting violence against the state after being removed from office.

He has been acquitted or had his sentence suspended in most cases, including ones for leaked state secrets and two other corruption sentences.

In July last year, Khan and Bibi were acquitted of unlawful marriage charges, only for the former prime minister to be arrested again over three cases linked to violence against the military and other state bodies in Lahore on 9 May 2023.

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From November: Imran Khan supporters clash with police

Violent protests have broken sporadically since Khan was jailed.

In November, at least six people were killed and almost a thousand protesters were arrested over demonstrations to free the former prime minister.

Khan’s latest conviction comes just a day after the PTI held formal reconciliatory talks with the government in a bid to restore stability.

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Russia sanctions: Fears over UK enforcement by HMRC

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Russia sanctions: Fears over UK enforcement by HMRC

Fears have been raised over the robustness of Britain’s trade sanctions against Russia after the main government department enforcing the rules admitted it has no idea how many cases it is investigating.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), which monitors and polices flows of goods in and out of the country, says it had no central record of how many investigations it’s carrying out into Russian sanctions. It also said that while it had issued six fines in relation to sanction-breaking since 2022, it would not name the firms sanctioned or provide any further detail on what they did wrong.

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The disclosures were part of a response to a Freedom of Information (FOI) request from Sky News, as part of its wider investigation into the sanctions regime against Russia.

In recent months we’ve reported on data showing flows of goods, including dual-use items which can be turned into weapons, from the UK into Caucasus and Central Asian states. We’ve shown how luxury British cars are being transported across the border from the Caucasus into Russia. And we’ve shown the contrast between rhetoric and reality on the various rules clamping down on trade in Russian fossil fuels.

But despite the challenges facing the sanctions regime, information on the enforcement of those sanctions is quite scant. The Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) has so far only imposed a single £15,000 fine for breach of financial sanctions – in other words those moving money in or out of Russia or helping sanctioned individuals do so.

HMRC has so far issued six fines in relation to Russian sanctions, but it refused to name any companies or individuals affected by the fines – or to provide any further details on what they were doing to break the rules. And, unlike other organisations, such as OFSI, it has never said how many cases it is working on – giving little sense of the scale of the pipeline of forthcoming action.

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 Fines
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Fines

Asked by Sky News to provide such details under FOI legislation, HMRC said: “The number of current investigations which may involve these sanctions, regardless of the eventual outcome, is not centrally recorded.

“To determine how many investigations are within scope of your request would require a manual search of a significant number of records, held by different business areas. Not all investigations reach the level of formal cases being opened, but these investigations are still recorded as compliance activity which would need to be manually reviewed to provide an answer.”

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October: Are Russia sanctions working?

Mark Handley, a partner at law firm Duane Morris, has spent years monitoring the information released on sanctions cases. He said: “If you’re trying to organise an organisation like HMRC in terms of resourcing and all the rest of it, you would think that they might know how many investigations they have ongoing and how to staff all of those. So I’m surprised that they didn’t have that number to hand.”

HMRC also said it would protect the privacy of companies fined for breaking sanctions rules. The FOI response continued: “HMRC do not consider that disclosing the company name would drive compliance, promote voluntary disclosure or be proportionate.”

This is in stark contrast to other countries, notably the US, where companies are routinely named and shamed in an effort to drive compliance.

Enforcement
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Enforcement

Leigh Hansson, partner at legal firm Reed Smith and a sanctions expert, said: “The US loves to name and shame, and I think from a US compliance perspective, it’s actually done quite a lot in further enforcing compliance both within the United States and globally.

“Because once you see a company [has] been fined or they’re placed on the specially-designated nationals list, all the other companies in their industry call around going: ‘hey, am I next?’

“And they want to know what it is that the company did – how did they violate sanctions?”

“One of the things the United States does in these penalty announcements is they provide background on the things the company did wrong, but these are also the things the company did right… And the information that they publish is quite helpful.”

The absence of such disclosure in the UK means both businesses and the public more widely have less clarity on the rules – which in turn may help explain why the regime has been more leaky than expected, with goods still flowing towards Russian satellite states, despite the fact that sanctions prohibit even indirect flows of goods to Russia.

Mr Handley said one consequence of the secrecy from HMRC is that “you’re operating in a vacuum, at the moment. Because the government’s not giving you the information that tells you what kind of conduct gets you to a civil settlement as opposed to a criminal prosecution”.

“So, again, even if you’re keeping the name anonymous, you can help businesses and individuals behave better and properly by giving more information,” he added.

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