Could Donald Trump’s influence over Vladimir Putin really end the Ukraine war in a day?
Donald Trump will want to strike a deal on Russia’s war in Ukraine that brings him a “win” for ending the fighting but without also gifting a victory to Vladimir Putin.
Crucially, any settlement must be acceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has spent the past few months working hard to impress the value of Kyiv as an ally upon the incoming US leader – and the global menace posed by an emboldened Moscow.
Such a tricky balancing act – after almost three years of all-out war, hundreds of thousands of casualties and millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes – will require careful, patient diplomacy.
This was not always a feature of Mr Trump’s first term in office though his unpredictable, forceful style could yet bring something new to the table that enables the two warring sides to compromise in ways that had previously been impossible to imagine.
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In a sign of reality biting, previous claims by the president-elect that he could end the conflict in a day have become less binding. General Keith Kellogg, his envoy to Ukraine and Russia, now says he hopes to secure a deal within the first 100 days of a Trump presidency.
Donald Trump and retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg in 2017. File pic: AP
Washington has unprecedented influence over the course of the war.
US military support to the Ukrainian armed forces has been pivotal in enabling them to withstand President Putin’s initial full-scale invasion, launch a counter-offensive and continue bloody battles in the east and northeast of the country as well as initiating their own counter-invasion into western Russia over the summer.
Any decision by Mr Trump to reduce the flow of American weapons, ammunition and money would deal a devastating blow to Ukrainian chances of even holding the line, let alone ejecting Russian boots off their soil.
Follow the latest on the Ukraine war
European and other Western allies – despite strongly backing Ukraine – lack the military strength to fill the huge void that would be left by the US ending its support.
It means that what the new president decides on Ukraine will impact the fighting whether the Ukrainian president and his troops like it or not.
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In November Zelenskyy explained how a ceasefire could work
But the incoming US commander-in-chief – strongly criticised during his first term for being too pally with Mr Putin – will not want to force any kind of compromise on the Ukrainians that will look to the outside world as a win for the Russian leader.
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President Putin had initially wanted to capture the whole of Ukraine and install a puppet government sympathetic to Moscow.
NATO remains a sticking point
There is no sign he has reduced that ambition, though he has made fully seizing the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south a core goal, along with guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Such a land grab – while significantly reduced from the whole of the country – would still be nothing other than a win for President Putin. But perhaps he could be lent on to freeze the frontline where it stands today.
For Ukraine, its president for a long time would only conceive of forcing all Russian troops off his territory including Crimea and swathes of the Donbas that were captured following Moscow’s first invasion in 2014.
Could British forces be deployed?
However, Mr Zelenskyy, in an exclusive interview with Sky News in November, for the first time said he might be open to freezing the war along the current frontlines, provided the rest of Ukraine that is under his government’s control is given NATO membership.
That too seems very unlikely. Mr Trump has even agreed with Mr Putin’s view that NATO membership for Ukraine would be an unacceptable provocation for Russia.
Yet, again, maybe a compromise could be negotiated between Kyiv and Moscow that would see NATO troops, including British forces, deployed to Ukraine to secure the frontline, maintain the ceasefire and deter future Russian attacks.
World
Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra sacked for ethics violation after leaked phone call
Thailand’s prime minister has been sacked after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was Thailand’s youngest PM, has been dismissed from office by the country’s Constitutional Court after only a year in power.
The court found Ms Shinawatra, 39, violated ethics in a leaked June telephone call, during which she appeared to kowtow to Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen as the bordering countries were on the verge of an armed conflict.
She also criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.
Fighting erupted weeks later and lasted five days. At least 35 people were killed and more than 260,000 were displaced.
Ms Shinawatra, who was new to politics when she took office in August last year, apologised over the call and said she was trying to avert a war. She was suspended in July.
Ms Shinawatra arriving at Government House in Bangkok ahead of the verdict on Friday. Pic: Reuters
She is now the fifth Thai PM from, or backed by, the billionaire Shinawatra family to be removed by the military or the judiciary in 17 years, amid a battle for power between the country’s warring elites.
The ruling thrusts Thailand into more political uncertainty at a time of public unease over stalled reforms and a stuttering economy.
Speaking after the court’s decision, the exiting PM said “all sides” in Thai politics now “have to work together to build political stability and to ensure that there won’t be another turning point again”.
The focus will now shift to who will replace Ms Shinawatra.
Her influential, billionaire father, Thaksin Shinawatra, who also once served as Thailand’s PM, is expected to be at the heart of a flurry of bargaining to keep the ruling Pheu Thai party in power.
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The leader of the main opposition People’s Party has called for the next prime minister to dissolve parliament once they are installed.
The deputy PM, Phumtham Wechayachai, and the current cabinet will act as government caretakers until a new leader is elected by parliament. There is no time limit on when that must take place.
After all those raised hopes of peace, Ukraine has been hit by the second-worst night of Russian air attacks since the war began.
So much for diplomacy, despite the Alaska summit, then the Washington DC meeting.
The Kremlin says it was aiming at military targets, but yet again, the pictures tell a very different story.
Follow latest: UK summons Putin’s ambassador
Firefighters work at the site of a burning building after a Russian attack in Kyiv, Ukraine. Pic: AP
One civilian building after another was hit, more than a dozen people were killed, and British Council and EU buildings were also damaged.
So what’s going on? Why is Vladimir Putin doing it?
Because he can.
The Russian president thinks he’s winning this war, and it’s hard to escape the conclusion that he’s using diplomacy to play for time while he carries on beating down the Ukrainians’ will to win.
And at the moment, no one is stopping him
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At least 14 killed in Kyiv attack
Ukraine is hitting back, particularly at Russia‘s oil installations, more of them going up in thick black smoke, after being hit by long-range Ukrainian drones.
It is taking a heavy toll on Putin’s ‘Achilles heel’, but on its own, analysts don’t expect it will be enough to persuade him to end this war.
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British Council building hit in Kyiv
The West can wring its hands in condemnation.
But it’s divided between Europe that wants a ceasefire and much more severe sanctions, and Donald Trump, who, it seems, does not – strangely always willing to sympathise with the Russians more than Ukraine.
He’s back to blaming Ukraine for starting the war, saying earlier in the week that Kyiv should not have got into a war it had no chance of winning.
It is a grotesque perversion of history. Ukraine, of course, had no choice but to fight to defend itself when it was invaded in an act of unprovoked aggression.
Every time the US president has condemned Russia for these kinds of attacks, he has never followed through and done nothing to punish them.
Rescue workers carry an injured woman after a Russian strike on Kyiv, Ukraine. Pic: AP
More worryingly for the Ukrainians, the Russians are getting the upper hand in the drones war, taking Iranian technology and souping it up into faster-moving drones that the Ukrainians are having increasing difficulty bringing down.
They expect as many as a thousand drones a night coming their way by the winter, and many, many more innocents to die.
Next week, Putin will join Chinese and North Korean leaders in a summit in Beijing, both supporting his war in Ukraine.
(L-R) Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un. Pics: Reuters
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We are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago
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A war that began as one man’s mad idea has, in three and a half years, metastasised into a titanic struggle between east and west, fought increasingly with machines in a dystopian evolution of war.
If Mr Trump is not prepared to use his power to bring this war to an end, what will another three and a half years of his presidency bring?
It is a chilling question.
World
Boy, 8, and girl, 10, killed in US Catholic school shooting named – as father brands attacker ‘a coward’
The families of two children killed in the US Catholic school shooting have said their “hearts are broken” and branded the attacker a “coward”.
Fletcher Merkel who was eight and 10-year-old Harper Moyski were killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.
Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.
Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.
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New details released of US school shooting
‘Our hearts are broken’
Harper’s parents, Michael Moyski and Jackie Flavin, remembered her as “a bright, joyful, and deeply loved 10-year-old whose laughter, kindness, and spirit touched everyone who knew her”.
“Our hearts are broken not only as parents, but also for Harper’s sister, who adored her big sister and is grieving an unimaginable loss. As a family, we are shattered, and words cannot capture the depth of our pain,” their statement said.
They urged leaders and communities to “take meaningful steps to address gun violence and the mental health crisis in this country.”
“Change is possible, and it is necessary – so that Harper’s story does not become yet another in a long line of tragedies,” the statement added.
The family of Fletcher Merkel said there was a ‘hole in our hearts’. Pic: Family handout/AP
‘Fletcher loved his family’
In a statement reported by Sky’s US partner network NBC News, Fletcher’s father Jesse Merkel blamed the “coward” killer for why the boy’s family can’t “hold him, talk to him, play with him, and watch him grow into the wonderful young man he was on the path to becoming”.
He said: “Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking, and any sports that he was allowed to play.
“While the hole in our hearts and lives will never be filled, I hope that in time, our family can find healing.”
Mr Merkel also praised “the swift and heroic actions of children and adults alike from inside the church”.
“Without these people and their selfless actions, this could have been a tragedy of many magnitudes more. For these people, I am thankful,” he added.
Families and loved ones reunite at the scene after the shooting. Pic: Reuters
Mayor calls for assault weapon ban
It comes after Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons, a day after the deadly school shooting.
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Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban
“Thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it. It’s on all of us to see this through,” the mayor said at a news conference. “We need a statewide and a federal ban on assault weapons.
“We need a statewide and a federal ban on high-capacity magazines. There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload.
“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”
Meanwhile, Minneapolis police chief Brian O’Hara gave an update on the investigation, saying the suspect had fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.
“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added, before saying the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.
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Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at an earlier news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.
One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.
Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.
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