Donald Trump will want to strike a deal on Russia’s war in Ukraine that brings him a “win” for ending the fighting but without also gifting a victory to Vladimir Putin.
Crucially, any settlement must be acceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has spent the past few months working hard to impress the value of Kyiv as an ally upon the incoming US leader – and the global menace posed by an emboldened Moscow.
Such a tricky balancing act – after almost three years of all-out war, hundreds of thousands of casualties and millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes – will require careful, patient diplomacy.
This was not always a feature of Mr Trump’s first term in office though his unpredictable, forceful style could yet bring something new to the table that enables the two warring sides to compromise in ways that had previously been impossible to imagine.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
8:05
A who’s who of Trump’s family
In a sign of reality biting, previous claims by the president-elect that he could end the conflict in a day have become less binding. General Keith Kellogg, his envoy to Ukraine and Russia, now says he hopes to secure a deal within the first 100 days of a Trump presidency.
Image: Donald Trump and retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg in 2017. File pic: AP
Washington has unprecedented influence over the course of the war.
US military support to the Ukrainian armed forces has been pivotal in enabling them to withstand President Putin’s initial full-scale invasion, launch a counter-offensive and continue bloody battles in the east and northeast of the country as well as initiating their own counter-invasion into western Russia over the summer.
More on Donald Trump
Related Topics:
Any decision by Mr Trump to reduce the flow of American weapons, ammunition and money would deal a devastating blow to Ukrainian chances of even holding the line, let alone ejecting Russian boots off their soil.
European and other Western allies – despite strongly backing Ukraine – lack the military strength to fill the huge void that would be left by the US ending its support.
It means that what the new president decides on Ukraine will impact the fighting whether the Ukrainian president and his troops like it or not.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:32
In November Zelenskyy explained how a ceasefire could work
But the incoming US commander-in-chief – strongly criticised during his first term for being too pally with Mr Putin – will not want to force any kind of compromise on the Ukrainians that will look to the outside world as a win for the Russian leader.
President Putin had initially wanted to capture the whole of Ukraine and install a puppet government sympathetic to Moscow.
NATO remains a sticking point
There is no sign he has reduced that ambition, though he has made fully seizing the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south a core goal, along with guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Such a land grab – while significantly reduced from the whole of the country – would still be nothing other than a win for President Putin. But perhaps he could be lent on to freeze the frontline where it stands today.
For Ukraine, its president for a long time would only conceive of forcing all Russian troops off his territory including Crimea and swathes of the Donbas that were captured following Moscow’s first invasion in 2014.
Could British forces be deployed?
However, Mr Zelenskyy, in an exclusive interview with Sky News in November, for the first time said he might be open to freezing the war along the current frontlines, provided the rest of Ukraine that is under his government’s control is given NATO membership.
That too seems very unlikely. Mr Trump has even agreed with Mr Putin’s view that NATO membership for Ukraine would be an unacceptable provocation for Russia.
Yet, again, maybe a compromise could be negotiated between Kyiv and Moscow that would see NATO troops, including British forces, deployed to Ukraine to secure the frontline, maintain the ceasefire and deter future Russian attacks.
Donald Trump has said he will speak to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy separately on Monday in a bid to secure a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine.
The US president made the announcement on Truth Social – shortly after the Ukrainian president condemned Russiafor the “deliberate killing of civilians” after a drone hit a bus in north-eastern Ukraine.
Mr Trump said he will speak to Mr Putin over the phone. He will then talk with Mr Zelenskyy and “various members of NATO”, he wrote.
In an all-caps post, he said: “HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE A PRODUCTIVE DAY, A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END. GOD BLESS US ALL!!!”
The Ukrainian town of Bilopillia today declared a period of mourning lasting until Monday after nine people were killed in a Russian drone attack – which occurred just hours after Kyiv and Moscow held peace talks.
Seven others were injured, Ukrainian authorities said. The bus was evacuating civilians from a frontline area when the drone hit, the country’s national police said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:41
Nine killed in Russian strike on bus
A “father, mother and daughter” were among the dead, Mr Zelenskyy said, writing on Telegram: “All the deceased were civilians. And the Russians could not have failed to understand what kind of vehicle they were targeting.”
The attack has also been condemned by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who said he was “appalled”.
“If Putin is serious about peace, Russia must agree to a full and immediate ceasefire, as Ukraine has done,” he wrote on X.
Datawrapper
This content is provided by Datawrapper, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Datawrapper cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Datawrapper cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Datawrapper cookies for this session only.
While the discussions – which were not attended by the Mr Putin or Mr Zelenskyy – did not result in a truce, both countries agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners in their biggest swap yet.
Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said on national television the exchange could happen as early as next week.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:52
What happened at Ukraine talks?
Russia ‘threatened eternal war’ at peace talks
After a Ukrainian official yesterday said Russia made “unacceptable” demands during the discussions, a source from the Kyiv delegation has now told Sky News that Moscow threatened “eternal war”.
Separately, a senior Kyiv official said Russia’s proposed ceasefire terms included the full withdrawal of troops from four regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Luhansk.
Moscow also called for international recognition that those regions and Crimea – annexed in 2014 – are Russian and for Ukraine to become a neutral state, with no allied troops stationed there, they said.
Ukraine has rallied support from its allies following the talks, and a number have spoken out.
French President Emmanuel Macron said: “Today, what do we have? Nothing. And so I tell you, faced with President Putin’s cynicism, I am sure that President Trump, mindful of the credibility of the United States, will react.”
The EU is working on a new package of sanctions against Moscow, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
Israel and Hamas said ceasefire talks have resumed in Qatar – even as Israeli forces ramped up a bombing campaign and mobilised for a massive new ground assault.
Earlier, the Israeli military said it had been “conducting extensive strikes and mobilising troops” as part of preparations to expand operations in Gaza.
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said Hamas had “refused to discuss negotiations without a cessation of the war”, but after the airstrikes and the mobilisation of forces the militant group’s representatives “have agreed to sit in a room and seriously discuss the deal”.
“Israel emphasises that if the talks do not progress, the [military] operation will continue,” he added.
A Hamas source told Sky News that ceasefire talks began in Doha on Saturday morning.
Image: Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Jabalia. Pic: Reuters
Image: Tents were targeted in an airstrike on Saturday at al Aqsa Hospital in Deir al Balah in central Gaza. Pic: AP
Hamas official Taher al-Nono told Reuters news agency that the two sides were involved in discussions without “pre-conditions”.
He added Hamas was “keen to exert all the effort needed” to help mediators make the negotiations a success.
More than 150 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
The Israeli military’s preparations to expand operations in Gaza have included the build-up of tanks and troops along the border.
It is part of “Operation Gideon Chariot”, which Israel says is aimed at defeating Hamas and getting its hostages back.
Image: Israeli tanks near the Israel-Gaza border on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Image: An Israeli tank being relocated to a position near the Gaza border on Friday. Pic: AP
An Israeli defence official said earlier this month that the operation would not be launched before Donald Trump concluded his visit to the Middle East.
The US president ended his trip on Friday, with no apparent progress towards a new peace deal.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:27
Forensic look at Israel’s escalation
Meanwhile, on Saturday, leaders at the annual summit of the Arab League in Baghdad said they were trying to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
They also promised to contribute to the reconstruction of the territory once the war stops.
The meeting comes two months after Israel ended a ceasefire reached with the Hamas militant group.
Image: A man carrying the body of a child killed in Israeli airstrikes on Friday in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Image: Parts of northern Gaza have been completely destroyed in the bombing campaign. Pic: Reuters
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 5 May that Israel was planning an expanded, intensive offensive against Hamas as his security cabinet approved plans that could involve seizing Gaza and controlling aid.
This week, Israel said it had bombed the European Hospital because it was home to an underground Hamas base, but Sky News analysis has cast doubt on its evidence.
Follow The World
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Israel’s goal is the elimination of Hamas, which attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and seizing about 250 hostages.
Its military response has killed more than 53,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
On Sunday, President Trump called on leaders of both Russia and Ukraine to meet.
He posted: “President Putin of Russia wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY.”
That post let the Russian leader off the hook. Only the day before, Putin had been ordered by Ukraine’s allies, including America, to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.
Image: Pic: AP
The Russian president had swerved that demand, suggesting talks instead.
“If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump posted before swivelling and backing Putin’s proposals for talks instead.
Undeterred, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted the call.
Putin though refused to go, sending officials instead.
And yet there was no reprimand from the US president. Instead, he chose to undermine the talks he had himself called for.
“Look, nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together,” he told reporters on Air Force One. So much for that then.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:52
What happened at Ukraine talks?
It is what happened in those talks though that should give the US president the greatest pause for thought about Putin’s intentions – as it does in Kyiv.
The message they brought was blunt and belligerent, threatening eternal war.
“We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three – however long it takes,” lead Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky is reported to have said. “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”
Image: Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. Pic: AP
Far from offering a compromise, they are reported to have demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four regions they have partially seized by force and the capitulation of another two, just for good measure.
And there was a chilling moment when the Russians are reported to have threatened their interlocutors like gangsters.
“Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones,” Mednisky said. Russia is prepared to fight forever.
For Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, that was personal.
Max, his 23-year-old nephew, lost his life fighting the Russians in 2022 not long after their illegal and unprovoked invasion began.
Image: Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister. Pic: AP
At the end of this week, Putin appears scornful of Western efforts to end this war through a ceasefire and negotiations and Trump seems happy to let him get away with it.
Even Fox News, normally slavishly subservient to Trump, is wondering what gives.
Its anchor Bret Baier is no Jeremy Paxman, but in an interview last night asked Donald Trump 10 times if he might finally now put pressure on Putin.
The US president ducked and dived, talking about the money he had made in his Gulf tour, Zelenskyy’s shortcomings, Biden, and Iran instead. But he did not give a straight answer to the question.
With performances like that, Putin has nothing to worry about. Trump’s position though seems increasingly untenable.
Ukraine’s European allies though should be alarmed. They threatened Russia with sanctions and retaliation last weekend if he rejected a ceasefire. He now has.
With or without America, will they be good to their word?