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In the hours before Donald Trump’s inauguration the world is preparing for a presidency that has huge implications for international security, global trade and the fight against climate change.

Here Sky News’ correspondents explain what Trump 2.0 could mean for their area of expertise.

Is Trump about to end the Ukraine war in a day?

Donald Trump inauguration

Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor

Donald Trump will want to strike a deal on Russia’s war in Ukraine that brings him a “win” for ending the fighting, but without also gifting a victory to Vladimir Putin.

Crucially, any settlement must be acceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has spent the past few months working hard to impress the value of Kyiv as an ally upon the incoming US leader – and the global menace posed by an emboldened Moscow.

Such a tricky balancing act – after almost three years of all-out war, hundreds of thousands of casualties and millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes – will require careful, patient diplomacy.

This was not always a feature of Mr Trump’s first term in office, though his unpredictable, forceful style could yet bring something new to the table that enables the two warring sides to compromise in ways that had previously been impossible to imagine.

In a sign of reality biting, previous claims by the president-elect that he could end the conflict in a day have become less binding. General Keith Kellogg, his envoy to Ukraine and Russia, now says he hopes to secure a deal within the first 100 days of a Trump presidency.

Read Deborah’s full analysis here

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For Europe, Trump means a reset

Donald Trump inauguration

By Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent

In Europe, the inauguration of Donald Trump will mean a reset in politics, trade and security.

Europeans have heard him talk about cutting support for Ukraine, introducing tariffs and forcing NATO members to massively increase defence spending. The question, as ever, is whether his actions will match his rhetoric.

Mr Trump has promised a rapid end to the Ukraine war, but he hasn’t said how. If Russia, after so much time and loss of life, felt it was suddenly in the ascendency over a weakened Ukraine, it might demand the sort of deal that would unsettle the whole of Eastern Europe.

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Mr Trump has previously been ambiguous about his support for NATO, so there will be plenty across Europe who push for their nations to spend more on defence and be less reliant on America.

And Denmark will continue to push back hard against Mr Trump’s intention of either buying or seizing Greenland. The Danes will expect, and surely receive, wholehearted backing from both the EU and NATO.

But the diplomats have their work cut out. Mr Trump is likely to introduce more tariffs against some countries, most notably China.

But will he do the same to Europe, or will he decide that it’s better to bring old friends into the tent? Certainly, Europe – struggling with poor growth in its biggest economies – would desperately want to avoid tit-for-tat tariffs.

Read Adam’s full analysis here

Trump might not be as damaging to climate action as some fear

By Victoria Seabrook, climate reporter

Donald Trump’s reelection has been likened to taking a “wrecking ball” to climate action. But it might not be so bad.

Certainly, the incoming president wants to ban new offshore “windmills” (his disdaining term for turbines), unplug any stops on oil and gas and roll back environmental rules, again.

On day one, he is expected to wrench the US out of global climate obligations under the Paris Agreement, which he says kills its economy.

As America is the second-largest emitter in the world, his actions will reverberate around the planet, not just by fuelling climate change that knows no borders, but by providing cover for others to do the same.

But America was no climate saint to begin with.

It was already a laggard in cutting emissions and paying into climate funding for developing nations. Oil production reached record levels under Joe Biden.

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How Trump’s inauguration will unfold

Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy is not just underway but “unstoppable”, say advocates. China’s enormous wind and solar installations are a case in point.

Back in the US, some regional leaders will plough on with their own climate targets.

The US Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of governors representing half the population – are still aiming to meet Biden’s goal of cutting emissions by 61%, which he rushed through just before Trump’s return to the White House.

Perhaps the climate movement is just putting a brave face on it when it says America is still in the fight.

His impact on global climate efforts will be felt for years. But the extent of that is not a done deal.

Read Victoria’s full analysis here

Trump keeping China wondering what he’ll do

FOR INAUGURATION EXPERTS PIECE - ASIA

By Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent

No doubt China and the Indo-Pacific region are gaming out how to handle a second Trump presidency, but given the high degree of unpredictability ahead, the best approach is likely to be a cautious wait-and-see.

Mr Trump has railed against China’s export-driven economy and trade surplus with the US. He has also called out China’s export of the chemical precursors for fentanyl, blaming it for the US opioid crisis.

On the campaign trail, Mr Trump brought up one of his favourite anti-China lines by calling COVID-19, the “China virus”.

He has threatened tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.

This hardly makes for warm relations. But in classic Trump style, the great disrupter is also engaging with President Xi Jinping and keeping China, and the rest of the world wondering, what will he do?

The two leaders have held a rare phone conversation. Mr Trump said they discussed trade, fentanyl and TikTok.

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What to expect from Trump’s second term

The Wall Street Journal reports that Mr Trump has told advisers he wants to travel to China after taking office.

Before the election, he told the same newspaper that China would not provoke him because Mr Xi knows he’s “crazy”.

Mr Trump invited Mr Xi to the inauguration. The Chinese president declined, but is sending his vice-president, Han Zheng.

Mr Trump has a penchant for strongman leaders and autocrats. He has previously expressed his admiration for Xi Jinping.

The president-elect is keeping the Chinese off balance. Will it be confrontation or concord? No one knows.

The Chinese do not want a trade war with the US. But if Mr Trump’s isolationist foreign policy preference means China is left to expand its influence in this region and beyond, Beijing will regard that as a major advantage.

The moment the world changed

FOR CONWAY PIECE ON TRUMP ECONOMY

By Ed Conway, economics and data editor

There’s a fair chance that when historians look back at the era we’re currently in, they will describe this – the second inauguration of Donald Trump – as the moment the world changed.

This, they may say (yes, of course, it all depends on what happens next) was the moment the 35-year long period of globalisation that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall gave way to a new era. It was the moment the prevailing assumptions among the governing elite – that free trade and free movement of people were critical principles of policy – were replaced by new principles.

Those principles – that barriers to migration flows and tariffs on trade flows are a valid part of the policy toolkit – are not exactly new. Indeed, look back over the past two centuries, and you see that every 75 years or so, the pendulum swings to and from an adherence to free trade.

Nor is it entirely true to say Donald Trump changed everything: look at Joe Biden’s policies while in office, and you see that far from reversing the Trump 1.0 stance on China, Mr Biden reinforced it with new tariffs and protectionist measures.

Even so, historians tend to be drawn towards symbolic moments, and this is certainly one of them. Americans have given their popular support to a president who not only espouses a very different rendition of American international engagement to most of his post-war predecessors but glorifies it.

Since Franklin Roosevelt, one of the overarching goals of American policy was to use its power to try to seek international stability and to enshrine democracy and certain social and economic values (the “Washington consensus” as it became known).

The Trump 2.0 era seems to suggest that model is now over.

The consequences are likely to be profound.

Read Ed’s full analysis here

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Trump sues Wall Street Journal and Rupert Murdoch for $10bn after Epstein letter report

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Trump sues Wall Street Journal and Rupert Murdoch for bn after Epstein letter report

Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit against Rupert Murdoch, two Wall Street Journal reporters and the publication’s owner, News Corp.

The US president has accused the named individuals of defamation, claiming they acted with malicious intent and caused him overwhelming financial and reputational harm.

The lawsuit, which was filed in Miami, seeks at least $10bn (£7.5bn) in damages.

In a post on Truth Social, Mr Trump called the lawsuit “historic legal action” which was filed on behalf of himself and all Americans who he said will “no longer tolerate the abusive wrongdoings of the Fake News Media”.

“I hope Rupert and his ‘friends’ are looking forward to the many hours of depositions and testimonies they will have to provide in this case,” he wrote.

It comes after Mr Trump claimed that a letter he allegedly wrote to paedophile Jeffrey Epstein was “fake” and said he would sue the “ass off” Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), which first published the story.

The publication had said Mr Trump wrote the letter as part of a collection Epstein’s former girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell, planned to give him as a 50th birthday present in 2003.

It claimed the message, allegedly from Mr Trump, featured several lines of typewritten text, concluding with: “May every day be another wonderful secret.”

The text was framed by what appeared to be a hand-drawn outline of a naked woman, the WSJ claimed. The letter is also said to have featured the signature “Donald”.

Mr Trump immediately denied writing the letter when the WSJ report was published on Thursday night.

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Memes of Epstein undermine victims, says lawyer

“The Wall Street Journal printed a FAKE letter, supposedly to Epstein,” he wrote on Truth Social.

“These are not my words, not the way I talk. Also, I don’t draw pictures. I told Rupert Murdoch it was a Scam, that he shouldn’t print this Fake Story. But he did, and now I’m going to sue his ass off, and that of his third rate newspaper.”

Mr Trump ignored questions about Epstein as he signed a cryptocurrency bill at the White House earlier on Friday.

The president’s lawsuit comes as the US government filed a motion to unseal grand jury transcripts related to Epstein, who took his own life while awaiting trial in 2019.

In a Manhattan federal court filing, the Department of Justice said the criminal cases against Epstein and Maxwell are a matter of public interest, justifying the release of associated grand jury transcripts.

Earlier on Friday, Mr Trump said attorney general Pam Bondi had been asked to release the transcripts because of “the ridiculous amount of publicity given to Jeffrey Epstein”.

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The justice department previously said it had around 200 documents relating to Epstein and that the FBI had thousands more.

It is unknown how much of this is grand jury testimony, which is typically kept secret under US law.

Read more:
All we know about the ‘friendship’
Trump denies writing birthday letter to Epstein

The president has faced increased scrutiny over his alleged friendship with Epstein since his administration’s U-turn on the so-called ‘Epstein files’.

Mr Trump pledged to release files on Epstein during his presidential campaign, as his MAGA movement accused the Biden administration of suppressing the extent of Epstein’s paedophilia, predatory behaviour and his so-called “client list” – thought to contain names of the rich and famous who conspired with him in his child sex trafficking operation.

But after a review of the evidence the US government has, the Justice Department recently determined that no “further disclosure would be appropriate or warranted”.

Venezuela releases jailed Americans in prisoner swap

The Trump administration said on Friday that it had negotiated an exchange with Venezuela, resulting in the release of 10 jailed Americans.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said the prisoners, who had been held in the South American country, were “on their way to freedom”.

Alleged gang members imprisoned in the CECOT jail in EL Salvador. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Men in the CECOT jail in EL Salvador. Pic: Reuters

In return, 252 Venezuelan migrants being held in El Salvador have been freed, the Venezuelan government said.

They had been held in the notorious maximum security CECOT prison after being deported by the US.

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Trump denies claim he wrote birthday letter to Jeffrey Epstein – and says he has ordered release of more case files

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Trump denies claim he wrote birthday letter to Jeffrey Epstein - and says he has ordered release of more case files

Donald Trump has called an alleged letter he wrote to paedophile Jeffrey Epstein “fake” and said he will sue the “ass off” Rupert Murdoch, who owns the paper that first published the claim.

In multiple posts on Truth Social, the US president accused The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) of fabricating the letter that it claimed was written by Mr Trump as part of a collection of letters addressed to Epstein that his former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell planned to give him as a birthday present in 2003.

According to documents seen by the WSJ, Mr Trump’s letter featured several lines of typewritten text framed by what appeared to be a hand-drawn outline of a naked woman.

The paper said the letter concludes “Happy Birthday – and may every day be another wonderful secret”, and featured the signature “Donald”, allegedly drawn across the woman’s waist, meant to mimic the appearance of pubic hair.

Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: New York State Sex Offender Registry via AP
Image:
Epstein took his own life in prison in 2019. Pic: AP

Responding to the WSJ’s claims, Mr Trump wrote: “The Wall Street Journal printed a FAKE letter, supposedly to Epstein. These are not my words, not the way I talk. Also, I don’t draw pictures.

“I told Rupert Murdoch it was a Scam, that he shouldn’t print this Fake Story. But he did, and now I’m going to sue his ass off, and that of his third rate newspaper. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DJT.”

He said earlier he would also sue the WSJ and News Corp, which Mr Murdoch owns. The WSJ is published by News Corp subsidiary company, Dow Jones & Co.

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From 16 July: Trump: Epstein case is ‘a boring story’

The Justice Department has not responded to the WSJ and the FBI declined to comment.

In a separate post, Mr Trump said he has asked the attorney general, Pam Bondi, to release “any and all pertinent grand jury testimony” in the case of the paedophile financier who was found dead in his Manhattan cell in August 2019, shortly after he was arrested on sex trafficking charges.

Analysis: The credibility of the Epstein-Trump letter rests on the word of the WSJ – until an actual document is produced

Classy, it’s not.  

The alleged letter sent to Jeffrey Epstein by Donald Trump has a typewritten note inside the hand-drawn outline of a woman. There’s a squiggly signature – “Donald” – below the waist. 

It shows friendship, certainly – the dialogue from “Donald” to “Jeffrey” reads: “Happy birthday – and may every day be another wonderful secret.”

However, it doesn’t quite produce definitive proof of impropriety.  

The Wall Street Journal hasn’t produced the document and, until it does, the story’s credibility rests on its word.  

Whether it rests easy will be tested by Team Trump – it was clear last night that prominent MAGA figures were rallying to the president’s cause and turning their anger towards the Wall Street Journal – circling the wagons and shooting the messenger.  

Trump has threatened to sue the Wall Street Journal and has targeted its owner, old friend Rupert Murdoch. “I’ll sue his ass off,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

It’s a billionaires’ struggle symptomatic of the wider acrimony.  Trump can pursue Rupert Murdoch through the courts, but the MAGA millions will be more difficult to pin down. 

Trump supporters who stood behind him as he screamed “cover-up” by the so-called “deep state”. They stand before him now, let down.

Donald Trump has authorised his attorney-general Pam Bondi to release grand jury testimony in the Jeffrey Epstein investigation – it’s something, but it’s far short of everything.

He is the man who did more than most to bake conspiracy theory into US political culture, so he can hardly complain it turns on him. 

It has, and how.

The release of any documents, Mr Trump said, would be subject to approval by a court.

The justice department has previously said it had around 200 documents relating to Epstein and that the FBI had thousands more. It is unknown how much of this is grand jury testimony – which is typically kept secret under US law.

Ms Bondi responded to the president on X, writing: “President Trump-we are ready to move the court tomorrow to unseal the grand jury transcripts.”

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Elon Musk, who claimed last month that Mr Trump appears in the Epstein files, was surprisingly among the first to come to the president’s defence over the WSJ claims.

“It really doesn’t sound like something Trump would say tbh,” the tech billionaire wrote on X, before going on to ask where the evidence against Epstein allegedly held by the FBI had gone.

The Trump administration has come under criticism after the president appeared to U-turn on his own promise to release more information about the Epstein case publicly.

In the run-up to the US election last year, Mr Trump drew on rumours and conspiracy theories that appeared to accuse the Biden administration of suppressing the extent of Epstein’s paedophilia, predatory behaviour and his so-called “client list” – thought to contain names of the rich and famous who conspired with him in a child sex trafficking operation.

Ms Bondi fuelled these rumours in February by telling Fox News that the alleged Epstein client list was “sitting on my desk right now to review”.

Read more:
Ghislaine Maxwell could challenge imprisonment
Why is Trump fighting with MAGA over Epstein?
The huge impact of Musk’s row with Trump

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In the same month, the justice department released some government documents regarding the case, but there were no new revelations.

After a months-long review of additional evidence, the department earlier this month released a video meant to prove that Epstein killed himself, but said no other files related to the case would be made public.

The decision was criticised by many in Mr Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, who Mr Trump later called “weaklings”.

Sky News has contacted the White House for further comment.

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Trump, Epstein and a ‘bawdy’ birthday card

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Trump, Epstein and a 'bawdy' birthday card

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The Wall Street Journal reveals a suggestive birthday card – it says Trump wrote to Epstein for his 50th birthday.

What’s in the card, as Trump vigorously denies ever writing the card and calls it a “FAKE”.

All this – on a day when the White House came out to explain the cause of Trump’s swollen ankles and bruised hand.

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

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