Trump inauguration: Sky News experts on what the second term means for the world
In the hours before Donald Trump’s inauguration the world is preparing for a presidency that has huge implications for international security, global trade and the fight against climate change.
Here Sky News’ correspondents explain what Trump 2.0 could mean for their area of expertise.
Is Trump about to end the Ukraine war in a day?
Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor
Donald Trump will want to strike a deal on Russia’s war in Ukraine that brings him a “win” for ending the fighting, but without also gifting a victory to Vladimir Putin.
Crucially, any settlement must be acceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has spent the past few months working hard to impress the value of Kyiv as an ally upon the incoming US leader – and the global menace posed by an emboldened Moscow.
Such a tricky balancing act – after almost three years of all-out war, hundreds of thousands of casualties and millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes – will require careful, patient diplomacy.
This was not always a feature of Mr Trump’s first term in office, though his unpredictable, forceful style could yet bring something new to the table that enables the two warring sides to compromise in ways that had previously been impossible to imagine.
In a sign of reality biting, previous claims by the president-elect that he could end the conflict in a day have become less binding. General Keith Kellogg, his envoy to Ukraine and Russia, now says he hopes to secure a deal within the first 100 days of a Trump presidency.
Read Deborah’s full analysis here
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For Europe, Trump means a reset
By Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent
In Europe, the inauguration of Donald Trump will mean a reset in politics, trade and security.
Europeans have heard him talk about cutting support for Ukraine, introducing tariffs and forcing NATO members to massively increase defence spending. The question, as ever, is whether his actions will match his rhetoric.
Mr Trump has promised a rapid end to the Ukraine war, but he hasn’t said how. If Russia, after so much time and loss of life, felt it was suddenly in the ascendency over a weakened Ukraine, it might demand the sort of deal that would unsettle the whole of Eastern Europe.
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Mr Trump has previously been ambiguous about his support for NATO, so there will be plenty across Europe who push for their nations to spend more on defence and be less reliant on America.
And Denmark will continue to push back hard against Mr Trump’s intention of either buying or seizing Greenland. The Danes will expect, and surely receive, wholehearted backing from both the EU and NATO.
But the diplomats have their work cut out. Mr Trump is likely to introduce more tariffs against some countries, most notably China.
But will he do the same to Europe, or will he decide that it’s better to bring old friends into the tent? Certainly, Europe – struggling with poor growth in its biggest economies – would desperately want to avoid tit-for-tat tariffs.
Read Adam’s full analysis here
Trump might not be as damaging to climate action as some fear
By Victoria Seabrook, climate reporter
Donald Trump’s reelection has been likened to taking a “wrecking ball” to climate action. But it might not be so bad.
Certainly, the incoming president wants to ban new offshore “windmills” (his disdaining term for turbines), unplug any stops on oil and gas and roll back environmental rules, again.
On day one, he is expected to wrench the US out of global climate obligations under the Paris Agreement, which he says kills its economy.
As America is the second-largest emitter in the world, his actions will reverberate around the planet, not just by fuelling climate change that knows no borders, but by providing cover for others to do the same.
But America was no climate saint to begin with.
It was already a laggard in cutting emissions and paying into climate funding for developing nations. Oil production reached record levels under Joe Biden.
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How Trump’s inauguration will unfold
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy is not just underway but “unstoppable”, say advocates. China’s enormous wind and solar installations are a case in point.
Back in the US, some regional leaders will plough on with their own climate targets.
The US Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of governors representing half the population – are still aiming to meet Biden’s goal of cutting emissions by 61%, which he rushed through just before Trump’s return to the White House.
Perhaps the climate movement is just putting a brave face on it when it says America is still in the fight.
His impact on global climate efforts will be felt for years. But the extent of that is not a done deal.
Read Victoria’s full analysis here
Trump keeping China wondering what he’ll do
By Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent
No doubt China and the Indo-Pacific region are gaming out how to handle a second Trump presidency, but given the high degree of unpredictability ahead, the best approach is likely to be a cautious wait-and-see.
Mr Trump has railed against China’s export-driven economy and trade surplus with the US. He has also called out China’s export of the chemical precursors for fentanyl, blaming it for the US opioid crisis.
On the campaign trail, Mr Trump brought up one of his favourite anti-China lines by calling COVID-19, the “China virus”.
He has threatened tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.
This hardly makes for warm relations. But in classic Trump style, the great disrupter is also engaging with President Xi Jinping and keeping China, and the rest of the world wondering, what will he do?
The two leaders have held a rare phone conversation. Mr Trump said they discussed trade, fentanyl and TikTok.
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What to expect from Trump’s second term
The Wall Street Journal reports that Mr Trump has told advisers he wants to travel to China after taking office.
Before the election, he told the same newspaper that China would not provoke him because Mr Xi knows he’s “crazy”.
Mr Trump invited Mr Xi to the inauguration. The Chinese president declined, but is sending his vice-president, Han Zheng.
Mr Trump has a penchant for strongman leaders and autocrats. He has previously expressed his admiration for Xi Jinping.
The president-elect is keeping the Chinese off balance. Will it be confrontation or concord? No one knows.
The Chinese do not want a trade war with the US. But if Mr Trump’s isolationist foreign policy preference means China is left to expand its influence in this region and beyond, Beijing will regard that as a major advantage.
The moment the world changed
By Ed Conway, economics and data editor
There’s a fair chance that when historians look back at the era we’re currently in, they will describe this – the second inauguration of Donald Trump – as the moment the world changed.
This, they may say (yes, of course, it all depends on what happens next) was the moment the 35-year long period of globalisation that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall gave way to a new era. It was the moment the prevailing assumptions among the governing elite – that free trade and free movement of people were critical principles of policy – were replaced by new principles.
Those principles – that barriers to migration flows and tariffs on trade flows are a valid part of the policy toolkit – are not exactly new. Indeed, look back over the past two centuries, and you see that every 75 years or so, the pendulum swings to and from an adherence to free trade.
Nor is it entirely true to say Donald Trump changed everything: look at Joe Biden’s policies while in office, and you see that far from reversing the Trump 1.0 stance on China, Mr Biden reinforced it with new tariffs and protectionist measures.
Even so, historians tend to be drawn towards symbolic moments, and this is certainly one of them. Americans have given their popular support to a president who not only espouses a very different rendition of American international engagement to most of his post-war predecessors but glorifies it.
Since Franklin Roosevelt, one of the overarching goals of American policy was to use its power to try to seek international stability and to enshrine democracy and certain social and economic values (the “Washington consensus” as it became known).
The Trump 2.0 era seems to suggest that model is now over.
The consequences are likely to be profound.
Read Ed’s full analysis here
Donald Trump has praised the Liberian president’s command of English – the West African country’s official language.
The US president reacted with visible surprise to Joseph Boakai’s English-speaking skills during a White House meeting with leaders from the region on Wednesday.
After the Liberian president finished his brief remarks, Mr Trump told him he speaks “such good English” and asked: “Where did you learn to speak so beautifully?”
Mr Trump seemed surprised when Mr Boakai laughed and responded he learned in Liberia.
The US president said: “It’s beautiful English.
“I have people at this table who can’t speak nearly as well.”
Mr Boakai did not tell Mr Trump that English is the official language of Liberia.
The country was founded in 1822 with the aim of relocating freed African slaves and freeborn black citizens from the US.
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Mr Trump promised the leaders of Liberia, Senegal, Gabon, Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau a pivot from aid to trade at the surprise meeting.
He described the countries as “all very vibrant places with very valuable land, great minerals, and great oil deposits, and wonderful people”.
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Later asked by a reporter if he’ll visit the continent, Mr Trump said, “At some point, I would like to go to Africa.”
But he added that he’d “have to see what the schedule looks like”.
Trump’s predecessor, President Joe Biden, promised to go to Africa in 2023, but only fulfilled the commitment by visiting Angola in December 2024, just weeks before he left office.
The Israeli government believes the chances of achieving a permanent ceasefire in Gaza are “questionable”.
The pessimistic assessment, in a top-level Israeli government briefing given to Sky News, comes as the Israeli Prime Minister prepares to leave Washington DC after a four-day visit which had begun with the expectation of a ceasefire announcement.
Benjamin Netanyahu will leave the US later today with the prospect of even a temporary 60-day ceasefire looking extremely unlikely this week.
Within “a week, two weeks – not a day” is how it was framed in the background briefing late on Wednesday.
Crucially, though, on the chances of the ceasefire lasting beyond 60 days, the framing from the briefing was even less optimistic: “We will begin negotiations on a permanent settlement. But we achieve it? It’s questionable, but Hamas will not be there.”
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Netanyahu arrives in US for ceasefire talks
Sky News has spoken to several Israeli officials at the top level of the government. None will be drawn on any of the details of the negotiations over concerns that public disclosure could jeopardise their chances of success.
But I have been given a very clear understanding of Mr Netanyahu’s thinking.
The Israeli position is that a permanent ceasefire (beyond the initial 60 days, which itself is yet to be agreed) is only possible if Hamas lays down its arms. “If they don’t, we’ll proceed [with the war],” said a source.
The major sticking point in the talks between Hamas and Israel is the status of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) inside Gaza during the 60-day ceasefire and beyond, should it last longer.
The latest Israeli proposal, passed to Hamas last week, included a map showing the proposed IDF presence inside Gaza during the ceasefire.
Read more: What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal?
Pic: Reuters
This was rejected by Hamas and by Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who reportedly told the Israelis that the redeployment map “looks like a Smotrich plan”, a reference to the extreme-right Israeli finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich.
My briefing of Mr Netanyahu’s position is that he has not shifted in terms of Israel’s central stated war aims. The return of the hostages and eliminating Hamas are the key objectives.
But in a hint of how hard it will be to reconcile the differences, it was clear from my briefing that no permanent ceasefire is possible in the Israeli government’s view without the complete removal of Hamas as a political and military entity.
Hamas is not likely to negotiate its way to oblivion.
On the status of the Israeli military inside Gaza, a senior Israeli official told Sky News: “We would want IDF in every square metre of Gaza, and then hand it over to someone.”
Pic: Reuters
It was clear to me that Mr Netanyahu wants his stated position to be that his government has no territorial ambition for Gaza.
One quote to come from my briefing, which I am only able to attribute to a senior Israeli official, says: “[We] don’t want to govern Gaza… don’t want to govern, but the first thing is, you have to defeat Hamas.”
Another clear indication of Mr Netanyahu’s position – a quote from the briefing, attributable only to a senior Israeli official: “You cannot have victory if you don’t clear out all the fighting forces.
“You have to go into every square inch unless you are not serious about victory. I am. We are going to defeat them. Those who do not disarm will die. Those who disarm will have a life.”
On the future of Gaza, it’s clear from my briefings that Mr Netanyahu continues to rule out the possibility of a two-state solution “for the foreseeable future”.
The Israeli government assessment is that the Palestinians are not going to have a state “as long as they cling to that idea of destroying our state”.
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On the most controversial aspect of the Gaza conflict – the movement of the population – the briefing revealed that Mr Netanyahu’s view is that 60% of Palestinians would “choose to leave” but that Israel would allow them to return once Hamas had been eliminated.
“It’s not forcible eviction, it’s not permanent eviction,” a senior Israeli official said.
Critics of Israel’s war in Gaza say that any removal of Palestinians from Gaza, even if given the appearance of being “voluntary”, is in fact anything but, because the strip has been so comprehensively flattened.
Reacting to Israeli Defence Minister Katz’s recent statement revealing a plan to move Palestinians into a “humanitarian city” in southern Gaza, and not let them out of that area, the official wouldn’t be drawn, except to say: “As a permanent arrangement? Of course not.”
A senior Israeli official has issued a less-than-optimistic assessment of the permanency of any ceasefire in Gaza.
Speaking in Washington on condition of anonymity, the senior official said that a 60-day ceasefire “might” be possible within “a week, two weeks – not a day”.
But on the chances of the ceasefire lasting beyond 60 days, the official said: “We will begin negotiations on a permanent settlement.
“But we achieve it? It’s questionable, but Hamas will not be there.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to conclude a four-day visit to Washington later today.
There had been hope that a ceasefire could be announced during the trip. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that it’s close.
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Netanyahu arrives in US for ceasefire talks
Speaking at a briefing for a number of reporters, the Israeli official would not be drawn on any of the details of the negotiations over concerns that public disclosure could jeopardise their chances of success.
The major sticking point in the talks between Hamas and Israel is the status of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) inside Gaza during the 60-day ceasefire and beyond, should it last longer.
The latest Israeli proposal, passed to Hamas last week, included a map showing the proposed IDF presence inside Gaza during the ceasefire.
Read more: What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal?
Pic: Reuters
This was rejected by Hamas and by Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who reportedly told the Israelis that the redeployment map “looks like a Smotrich plan”, a reference to the extreme-right Israeli finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich.
The official repeated Israel’s central stated war aims of getting the hostages back and eliminating Hamas. But in a hint of how hard it will be to reconcile the differences, the official was clear that no permanent ceasefire would be possible without the complete removal of Hamas.
“We will offer them a permanent ceasefire,” he told Sky News. “If they agree. Fine. It’s over.
“They lay down their arms, and we proceed [with the ceasefire]. If they don’t, we’ll proceed [with the war].”
On the status of the Israeli military inside Gaza, the official said: “We would want IDF in every square meter of Gaza, and then hand it over to someone…”
He added: “[We] don’t want to govern Gaza… don’t want to govern, but the first thing is, you have to defeat Hamas…”
Pic: Reuters
The official said the Israeli government had “no territorial designs for Gaza”.
“But [we] don’t want Hamas there,” he continued. “You have to finish the job… victory over Hamas. You cannot have victory if you don’t clear out all the fighting forces.
“You have to go into every square inch unless you are not serious about victory. I am. We are going to defeat them. Those who do not disarm will die. Those who disarm will have a life.”
On the future of Gaza, the official ruled out the possibility of a two-state solution “for the foreseeable future”.
“They are not going to have a state in the foreseeable future as long as they cling to that idea of destroying our state. It doesn’t make a difference if they are the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, it’s just a difference of tactics.”
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On the most controversial aspect of the Gaza conflict – the movement of the population – the official predicted that 60% of Palestinians would “choose to leave”.
But he claimed that Israel would allow them to return once Hamas had been eliminated, adding: “It’s not forcible eviction, it’s not permanent eviction.”
Critics of Israel’s war in Gaza say that any removal of Palestinians from Gaza, even if given the appearance of being “voluntary,” is in fact anything but, because the strip has been so comprehensively flattened.
Reacting to Israeli Defence Minister Katz’s recent statement revealing a plan to move Palestinians into a “humanitarian city” in southern Gaza, and not let them out of that area, the official wouldn’t be drawn, except to say: “As a permanent arrangement? Of course not.”
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