What we can expect from Donald Trump’s second term as US president
Asked last week if “shock and awe” would be a good way to describe how the next few days and weeks might feel, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon offered a different analogy, predicting “days of thunder”.
The second term of Donald Trump will be like no other in modern history because he is like no other president.
Not only is he different in character, style, priorities, and execution but he has done it all before and with a useful gap since.
His four-year interregnum has allowed him to learn from his mistakes and he has had the time to build a team of chosen ones who have been playing a long game, preparing for this moment to, as his slogan puts it, “make America great again”.
Many months ago I had lunch with a senior Trump advisor and we discussed what his second term might look like.
Back then, before Joe Biden had stepped down and before two assassination attempts against him, his victory wasn’t as likely as it later turned out to be.
The advisor projected forward to the day which has now arrived – Inauguration Day.
Mr Trump, he said, would sign a raft of executive orders there and then, on the day, maybe even a pile of them on the balcony of the Capitol building.
It would be the clearest of signals that everything is changing; the people would vote for change and with the sweep of the presidential Sharpie pen, change would happen.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What to expect from Trump’s second term
Well, the day is upon us. The weather has shifted all the plans but has, maybe, made the choreography of the moment all the more striking.
In a change to convention, Mr Trump will join a crowd of 20,000 inside the Capital One sports arena after the inauguration ceremony. Is it the perfect venue to begin to sign the executive orders?
On day one after his first inauguration in January 2017, Mr Trump signed just one presidential order. This time his team have indicated he could sign as many as 100.
Not all will be signed on day one but it is expected that many will be in a blitz designed to assert authority and to overwhelm flabbergasted critics.
Speaking earlier this month, a spokesperson for Mr Trump said: “President-elect Donald Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting day one of the new White House, in what amounts to a shock and awe campaign on border security, deportations and a rush of other policy priorities.”
His incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said: “He will use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail… the American people are going to be pleased with what they see from President Trump within mere minutes of his return to the Oval Office.”
So what can we expect?
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Migrants fear Trump victory
Immigration
Changes to America’s immigration policies are likely to be profound and controversial.
“Mass deportations” have been promised repeatedly and Mr Trump has filled his inner circle with advisors who are vehemently anti-immigration.
“On my first day back at the White House, I’ll terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history,” Mr Trump said at one of his pre-election campaign rallies last year.
Undocumented migrants will be the focus. There are an estimated 11 million people who fall into this category in the US at the moment.
It has been suggested that the military could be used to help round up undocumented migrants in cities across the country. This will include immigrants who have been in the country for many years waiting for the chance to change their immigration status.
Many of the undocumented migrants will have family members born here who are therefore US citizens.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Trump: ‘US is an occupied country’
Mr Trump has also proposed banning birthright citizenship – an American right enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.
It’s not clear yet how wide-reaching these policies could be or how enforceable they all are. Will the focus be on migrants known to have committed crimes? Or will the net be wider?
“On day one, I will launch the largest deportation programme in American history to get the criminals out,” Mr Trump said in October. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”
His immigration plans are likely to face significant legal challenges. But expect Mr Trump’s White House to want to make visually impactful actions early on to show it means business.
Energy
“Drill, baby, drill” was a phase rolled out to roars at Donald Trump’s campaign rallies. And, true to his word, Mr Trump is expected to instruct federal agencies to begin unwinding President Biden’s limits on drilling offshore and on federal land.
Beyond that, he is expected to push for a rollback of vehicle exhaust emission rules which he has described as an “EV (electric vehicle) mandate” and to resume approvals for plants that export US natural gas.
Expect, too, that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Biden rejoined the agreement after Mr Trump pulled out during his first term.
It all amounts to what Mr Trump has termed America’s “energy dominance”.
January 6 pardons
On many occasions during the election campaign, Mr Trump has said he would pardon people convicted for their role in the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol – an attempt to prevent the 2020 election from being ratified.
In December, he told Time Magazine: “I’ll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Trump’s threat of tariffs explained
Trade and tariffs
This is an issue that’s causing significant angst globally and with good reason. It’s a central reason why world leaders are treading so carefully in their comments about the new president.
Weeks after his election, Mr Trump promised he would sign an executive order to implement a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, two of America’s biggest trading partners.
Previous pledges by Mr Trump include 10% tariffs across the board, but his November comments about Mexico and Canada went further. During his campaign, Trump said tariff was “the most beautiful word in the entire dictionary of words”.
It’s thought he will use the tariffs in part as a bargaining tool in order to make other countries dance to his tune.
“On January 20th, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said in November.
“This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”
The prospect of massive tariffs on goods coming into America could upend the global economy and supply chains. It’s also likely to push up prices in America, undermining Mr Trump’s pledge to reduce costs for everyday Americans. So watch for the extent to which rhetoric meets reality here.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How Trump’s inauguration will unfold
A war on woke
At campaign rallies Mr Trump repeatedly touted bringing an end to the so-called “woke ideology” in America.
Education in schools will be a focus with the federal Department for Education in the firing line.
Mr Trump has said he would cut federal funding for schools that are “pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto the lives of our children”.
He is also expected to undo the Biden administration’s Title IX protections that allowed trans students to use the school bathrooms that align with their gender identities.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Ukrainian soldiers deliver message to Trump
Ukraine
While he’s revised his pledge to “end the war in 24 hours”, Mr Trump is still promising to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end swiftly. The unanswered question is how, and the extent to which it would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Last year, incoming vice president JD Vance outlined the contours of the plan. “What it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarised zone,” Mr Vance told the Shawn Ryan podcast.
Mr Trump’s foreign policy objective is quick wins. While that may yield results in his presidential term, in the longer term, what message would it send to America’s adversaries? Mr Putin has no term limit on his presidency and could do with a pause in fighting to regroup and rearm.
Rhetoric and reality?
This is by no means an exhaustive list of Mr Trump’s campaign pledges that delivered him back to the White House.
The question is the extent to which his rhetoric is matched by action. After all, it is on his actions, not the rhetoric, that he will be judged.
Of the people who pushed Donald Trump over the line in November, a proportion did so precisely because they agreed with every one of his policies no matter how controversial – they want wholesale overhaul.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Biden’s presidency in 60 seconds
Read more:
Melania Trump – making her own rules
Why the UK must work with Trump
Meet The Trump family
However many others voted for him because they like his style (and were fed up with the other side) but they don’t really believe he will follow through on the most extreme policies.
“He’s not actually going to do that” is a sentiment I heard pretty often on the campaign trail.
We will find out in the hours, days, months, and four years ahead how reality matches rhetoric and what these “days of thunder” will look like.
Of one thing, we can be pretty certain. We are entering a profoundly consequential time.
In the hours before Donald Trump’s inauguration the world is preparing for a presidency that has huge implications for international security, global trade and the fight against climate change.
Here Sky News’ correspondents explain what Trump 2.0 could mean for their area of expertise.
Is Trump about to end the Ukraine war in a day?
Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor
Donald Trump will want to strike a deal on Russia’s war in Ukraine that brings him a “win” for ending the fighting, but without also gifting a victory to Vladimir Putin.
Crucially, any settlement must be acceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has spent the past few months working hard to impress the value of Kyiv as an ally upon the incoming US leader – and the global menace posed by an emboldened Moscow.
Such a tricky balancing act – after almost three years of all-out war, hundreds of thousands of casualties and millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes – will require careful, patient diplomacy.
This was not always a feature of Mr Trump’s first term in office, though his unpredictable, forceful style could yet bring something new to the table that enables the two warring sides to compromise in ways that had previously been impossible to imagine.
In a sign of reality biting, previous claims by the president-elect that he could end the conflict in a day have become less binding. General Keith Kellogg, his envoy to Ukraine and Russia, now says he hopes to secure a deal within the first 100 days of a Trump presidency.
Read Deborah’s full analysis here
Read more:
Trump’s swearing-in ceremony to be moved
Melania: The first lady who makes her own rules
How reality TV and cameos helped get Trump to the White House
For Europe, Trump means a reset
By Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent
In Europe, the inauguration of Donald Trump will mean a reset in politics, trade and security.
Europeans have heard him talk about cutting support for Ukraine, introducing tariffs and forcing NATO members to massively increase defence spending. The question, as ever, is whether his actions will match his rhetoric.
Mr Trump has promised a rapid end to the Ukraine war, but he hasn’t said how. If Russia, after so much time and loss of life, felt it was suddenly in the ascendency over a weakened Ukraine, it might demand the sort of deal that would unsettle the whole of Eastern Europe.
👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈
Mr Trump has previously been ambiguous about his support for NATO, so there will be plenty across Europe who push for their nations to spend more on defence and be less reliant on America.
And Denmark will continue to push back hard against Mr Trump’s intention of either buying or seizing Greenland. The Danes will expect, and surely receive, wholehearted backing from both the EU and NATO.
But the diplomats have their work cut out. Mr Trump is likely to introduce more tariffs against some countries, most notably China.
But will he do the same to Europe, or will he decide that it’s better to bring old friends into the tent? Certainly, Europe – struggling with poor growth in its biggest economies – would desperately want to avoid tit-for-tat tariffs.
Read Adam’s full analysis here
Trump might not be as damaging to climate action as some fear
By Victoria Seabrook, climate reporter
Donald Trump’s reelection has been likened to taking a “wrecking ball” to climate action. But it might not be so bad.
Certainly, the incoming president wants to ban new offshore “windmills” (his disdaining term for turbines), unplug any stops on oil and gas and roll back environmental rules, again.
On day one, he is expected to wrench the US out of global climate obligations under the Paris Agreement, which he says kills its economy.
As America is the second-largest emitter in the world, his actions will reverberate around the planet, not just by fuelling climate change that knows no borders, but by providing cover for others to do the same.
But America was no climate saint to begin with.
It was already a laggard in cutting emissions and paying into climate funding for developing nations. Oil production reached record levels under Joe Biden.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How Trump’s inauguration will unfold
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy is not just underway but “unstoppable”, say advocates. China’s enormous wind and solar installations are a case in point.
Back in the US, some regional leaders will plough on with their own climate targets.
The US Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of governors representing half the population – are still aiming to meet Biden’s goal of cutting emissions by 61%, which he rushed through just before Trump’s return to the White House.
Perhaps the climate movement is just putting a brave face on it when it says America is still in the fight.
His impact on global climate efforts will be felt for years. But the extent of that is not a done deal.
Read Victoria’s full analysis here
Trump keeping China wondering what he’ll do
By Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent
No doubt China and the Indo-Pacific region are gaming out how to handle a second Trump presidency, but given the high degree of unpredictability ahead, the best approach is likely to be a cautious wait-and-see.
Mr Trump has railed against China’s export-driven economy and trade surplus with the US. He has also called out China’s export of the chemical precursors for fentanyl, blaming it for the US opioid crisis.
On the campaign trail, Mr Trump brought up one of his favourite anti-China lines by calling COVID-19, the “China virus”.
He has threatened tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.
This hardly makes for warm relations. But in classic Trump style, the great disrupter is also engaging with President Xi Jinping and keeping China, and the rest of the world wondering, what will he do?
The two leaders have held a rare phone conversation. Mr Trump said they discussed trade, fentanyl and TikTok.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What to expect from Trump’s second term
The Wall Street Journal reports that Mr Trump has told advisers he wants to travel to China after taking office.
Before the election, he told the same newspaper that China would not provoke him because Mr Xi knows he’s “crazy”.
Mr Trump invited Mr Xi to the inauguration. The Chinese president declined, but is sending his vice-president, Han Zheng.
Mr Trump has a penchant for strongman leaders and autocrats. He has previously expressed his admiration for Xi Jinping.
The president-elect is keeping the Chinese off balance. Will it be confrontation or concord? No one knows.
The Chinese do not want a trade war with the US. But if Mr Trump’s isolationist foreign policy preference means China is left to expand its influence in this region and beyond, Beijing will regard that as a major advantage.
The moment the world changed
By Ed Conway, economics and data editor
There’s a fair chance that when historians look back at the era we’re currently in, they will describe this – the second inauguration of Donald Trump – as the moment the world changed.
This, they may say (yes, of course, it all depends on what happens next) was the moment the 35-year long period of globalisation that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall gave way to a new era. It was the moment the prevailing assumptions among the governing elite – that free trade and free movement of people were critical principles of policy – were replaced by new principles.
Those principles – that barriers to migration flows and tariffs on trade flows are a valid part of the policy toolkit – are not exactly new. Indeed, look back over the past two centuries, and you see that every 75 years or so, the pendulum swings to and from an adherence to free trade.
Nor is it entirely true to say Donald Trump changed everything: look at Joe Biden’s policies while in office, and you see that far from reversing the Trump 1.0 stance on China, Mr Biden reinforced it with new tariffs and protectionist measures.
Even so, historians tend to be drawn towards symbolic moments, and this is certainly one of them. Americans have given their popular support to a president who not only espouses a very different rendition of American international engagement to most of his post-war predecessors but glorifies it.
Since Franklin Roosevelt, one of the overarching goals of American policy was to use its power to try to seek international stability and to enshrine democracy and certain social and economic values (the “Washington consensus” as it became known).
The Trump 2.0 era seems to suggest that model is now over.
The consequences are likely to be profound.
Read Ed’s full analysis here
Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States today – marking an astonishing return to the White House for the businessman and former reality TV star.
Today’s inauguration comes after a tumultuous four years out of office that saw assassination attempts and several serious legal cases against the 78-year-old.
Mr Trump will be sworn in at the US Capitol Rotunda buildings rather than outdoors due to the cold weather in Washington DC – the first time this has happened in 40 years.
A guide to everything that will happen during the inauguration
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How Trump’s inauguration will unfold
The Capital One Arena in Washington will host a live viewing of the ceremony – due to start at 5pm UK time – as well as the Presidential Parade.
Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and past presidents will attend the swearing-in ceremony – but notably Barack Obama’s wife Michelle will be absent with no explanation offered.
Mr Trump has invited several world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, Argentina’s Javier Milei, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, to his inauguration – the first president-elect to do so.
Several high-profile “tech bros” will also be in attendance including Mr Trump’s close confidante Elon Musk, Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg, and TikTok chief executive Shou Zi Chew – fresh from the US ban which saw the app shut for several hours before the president-elect said he would stall the ban.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What can we expect from Trump’s first term?
Mr Trump also promised to sign close to 100 executive orders on his first day in office and said he would ensure that “the curtain closes on four long years of American decline”.
He added: “We’re going to give them the best first day, the biggest first week and the most extraordinary first 100 days of any presidency in American history.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What has Trump done since winning?
Read more:
Trump doing his best to undermine Biden
Could Trump really end the Ukraine war in a day?
This evening will end with a series of inaugural balls across Washington DC.
Today’s swearing-in ceremony will stand in stark contrast to Mr Biden’s in 2021. Then, security was beefed up after the January 6 unrest around two weeks earlier, and the COVID-19 pandemic drastically limited crowd sizes.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Trump shows off his YMCA moves
US officials have said they are not anticipating any major disruptions or protests on inauguration day.
But they are operating in a “heightened threat environment” due to the New Year’s terror attack in New Orleans.
Donald Trump at pre-inauguration rally. Pic: Reuters
The District of Columbia National Guard will deploy roughly 7,800 soldiers for security, which includes traffic control and patrolling underground stations.
Thousands of federal agents, police and other law enforcement officials will also be on hand.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports10 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway