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Asked last week if “shock and awe” would be a good way to describe how the next few days and weeks might feel, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon offered a different analogy, predicting “days of thunder”.

The second term of Donald Trump will be like no other in modern history because he is like no other president.

Not only is he different in character, style, priorities, and execution but he has done it all before and with a useful gap since.

His four-year interregnum has allowed him to learn from his mistakes and he has had the time to build a team of chosen ones who have been playing a long game, preparing for this moment to, as his slogan puts it, “make America great again”.

Many months ago I had lunch with a senior Trump advisor and we discussed what his second term might look like.

Back then, before Joe Biden had stepped down and before two assassination attempts against him, his victory wasn’t as likely as it later turned out to be.

The advisor projected forward to the day which has now arrived – Inauguration Day.

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Mr Trump, he said, would sign a raft of executive orders there and then, on the day, maybe even a pile of them on the balcony of the Capitol building.

It would be the clearest of signals that everything is changing; the people would vote for change and with the sweep of the presidential Sharpie pen, change would happen.

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What to expect from Trump’s second term

Well, the day is upon us. The weather has shifted all the plans but has, maybe, made the choreography of the moment all the more striking.

In a change to convention, Mr Trump will join a crowd of 20,000 inside the Capital One sports arena after the inauguration ceremony. Is it the perfect venue to begin to sign the executive orders?

On day one after his first inauguration in January 2017, Mr Trump signed just one presidential order. This time his team have indicated he could sign as many as 100.

Not all will be signed on day one but it is expected that many will be in a blitz designed to assert authority and to overwhelm flabbergasted critics.

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Speaking earlier this month, a spokesperson for Mr Trump said: “President-elect Donald Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting day one of the new White House, in what amounts to a shock and awe campaign on border security, deportations and a rush of other policy priorities.”

His incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said: “He will use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail… the American people are going to be pleased with what they see from President Trump within mere minutes of his return to the Oval Office.”

So what can we expect?

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Migrants fear Trump victory

Immigration

Changes to America’s immigration policies are likely to be profound and controversial.

“Mass deportations” have been promised repeatedly and Mr Trump has filled his inner circle with advisors who are vehemently anti-immigration.

“On my first day back at the White House, I’ll terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history,” Mr Trump said at one of his pre-election campaign rallies last year.

Undocumented migrants will be the focus. There are an estimated 11 million people who fall into this category in the US at the moment.

It has been suggested that the military could be used to help round up undocumented migrants in cities across the country. This will include immigrants who have been in the country for many years waiting for the chance to change their immigration status.

Many of the undocumented migrants will have family members born here who are therefore US citizens.

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Trump: ‘US is an occupied country’

Mr Trump has also proposed banning birthright citizenship – an American right enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.

It’s not clear yet how wide-reaching these policies could be or how enforceable they all are. Will the focus be on migrants known to have committed crimes? Or will the net be wider?

“On day one, I will launch the largest deportation programme in American history to get the criminals out,” Mr Trump said in October. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”

His immigration plans are likely to face significant legal challenges. But expect Mr Trump’s White House to want to make visually impactful actions early on to show it means business.

Energy

“Drill, baby, drill” was a phase rolled out to roars at Donald Trump’s campaign rallies. And, true to his word, Mr Trump is expected to instruct federal agencies to begin unwinding President Biden’s limits on drilling offshore and on federal land.

Beyond that, he is expected to push for a rollback of vehicle exhaust emission rules which he has described as an “EV (electric vehicle) mandate” and to resume approvals for plants that export US natural gas.

Expect, too, that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Biden rejoined the agreement after Mr Trump pulled out during his first term.

It all amounts to what Mr Trump has termed America’s “energy dominance”.

January 6 pardons

On many occasions during the election campaign, Mr Trump has said he would pardon people convicted for their role in the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol – an attempt to prevent the 2020 election from being ratified.

In December, he told Time Magazine: “I’ll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.”

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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained

Trade and tariffs

This is an issue that’s causing significant angst globally and with good reason. It’s a central reason why world leaders are treading so carefully in their comments about the new president.

Weeks after his election, Mr Trump promised he would sign an executive order to implement a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, two of America’s biggest trading partners.

Previous pledges by Mr Trump include 10% tariffs across the board, but his November comments about Mexico and Canada went further. During his campaign, Trump said tariff was “the most beautiful word in the entire dictionary of words”.

It’s thought he will use the tariffs in part as a bargaining tool in order to make other countries dance to his tune.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said in November.

“This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

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How Trump’s inauguration will unfold

The prospect of massive tariffs on goods coming into America could upend the global economy and supply chains. It’s also likely to push up prices in America, undermining Mr Trump’s pledge to reduce costs for everyday Americans. So watch for the extent to which rhetoric meets reality here.

A war on woke

At campaign rallies Mr Trump repeatedly touted bringing an end to the so-called “woke ideology” in America.

Education in schools will be a focus with the federal Department for Education in the firing line.

Mr Trump has said he would cut federal funding for schools that are “pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto the lives of our children”.

He is also expected to undo the Biden administration’s Title IX protections that allowed trans students to use the school bathrooms that align with their gender identities.

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Ukrainian soldiers deliver message to Trump

Ukraine

While he’s revised his pledge to “end the war in 24 hours”, Mr Trump is still promising to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end swiftly. The unanswered question is how, and the extent to which it would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Last year, incoming vice president JD Vance outlined the contours of the plan. “What it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarised zone,” Mr Vance told the Shawn Ryan podcast.

Mr Trump’s foreign policy objective is quick wins. While that may yield results in his presidential term, in the longer term, what message would it send to America’s adversaries? Mr Putin has no term limit on his presidency and could do with a pause in fighting to regroup and rearm.

Rhetoric and reality?

This is by no means an exhaustive list of Mr Trump’s campaign pledges that delivered him back to the White House.

The question is the extent to which his rhetoric is matched by action. After all, it is on his actions, not the rhetoric, that he will be judged.

Of the people who pushed Donald Trump over the line in November, a proportion did so precisely because they agreed with every one of his policies no matter how controversial – they want wholesale overhaul.

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Biden’s presidency in 60 seconds

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However many others voted for him because they like his style (and were fed up with the other side) but they don’t really believe he will follow through on the most extreme policies.

“He’s not actually going to do that” is a sentiment I heard pretty often on the campaign trail.

We will find out in the hours, days, months, and four years ahead how reality matches rhetoric and what these “days of thunder” will look like.

Of one thing, we can be pretty certain. We are entering a profoundly consequential time.

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Stock markets suffer sharp drops after Donald Trump announces sweeping tariffs

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Stock markets suffer sharp drops after Donald Trump announces sweeping tariffs

Stock markets around the world fell on Thursday after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs – with some economists now fearing a recession.

The US president announced tariffs for almost every country – including 10% rates on imports from the UK – on Wednesday evening, sending financial markets reeling.

While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.

Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble

All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.

A person works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Monday, March 31, 2025. Pic: AP
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The S&P 500 is set for its worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. File pic: AP

By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.

Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.

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Worst one-day losses since COVID

As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.

It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.

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The latest numbers on tariffs

‘Trust in President Trump’

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.

“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”

Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”

He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.

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How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?

Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’

The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.

He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.

Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.

He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”

Read more:
Do Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff numbers add up?

Tariffs about something more than economics: power

It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.

Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.

It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.

He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”

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Trump’s tariffs are about something more than economics: power

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Trump's tariffs are about something more than economics: power

Tanking stock markets, collapsing world orders, devastating trade wars; economists with their hair ablaze are scrambling to keep up.

But as we try to make sense of Donald Trumps’s tariff tsunami, economic theory only goes so far. In the end this surely is about something more primal.

Power.

Understanding that may be crucial to how the world responds.

Yes, economics helps explain the impact. The world’s economy has after all shifted on its axis, the way it’s been run for decades turned on its head.

Instead of driving world trade, America is creating a trade war. We will all feel the impact.

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PM will ‘fight’ for deal with US

Donald Trump says he is settling scores, righting wrongs. America has been raped, looted and pillaged by the world trading system.

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But don’t be distracted by the hyperbole – and if you think this is about economics alone, you may be missing the point.

Above all, tariffs give Donald Trump power. They strike fear into allies and enemies, from governments to corporations.

This is a president who runs his presidency like a medieval emperor or mafia don.

It is one reason why since his election we have seen what one statesman called a conga line of sycophants make their way to the White House, from world leaders to titans of industry.

The conga line will grow longer as they now redouble their efforts hoping to special treatment from Trump’s tariffs. Sir Keir Starmer among them.

President Trump’s using similar tactics at home, deploying presidential power to extract concessions and deter dissent in corporate America, academia and the US media. Those who offer favours are spared punishment.

His critics say he seeks a form power for the executive or presidential branch of government that the founding fathers deliberately sought to prevent.

Whether or not that is true, the same playbook of divide and rule through intimidation can now be applied internationally. Thanks to tariffs

Each country will seek exceptions but on Trump’s terms. Those who retaliate may meet escalation.

This is the unforgiving calculus for governments including our own plotting their next moves.

The temptation will be to give Trump whatever he wants to spare their economies, but there is a jeopardy that compounds the longer this goes on.

Read more:
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?
Trump hits island home only to penguins with 10% tariffs

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng gestures to Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves following a photo session at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. (Florence Lo/Pool Photo via AP)
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Could America’s traditional allies turn to China? Pic: AP

Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister who coined the conga line comparison, put it this way: “Pretty much all the international leaders I have seen that have sucked up to Trump have been run over. The reality is if you suck up to bullies, whether it’s global affairs or in the playground, you just get more bullying.”

Trading partners may be able to mitigate the impact of these tariffs through negotiation, but that may only encourage this unorthodox president to demand ever more?

Ultimately the world will need a more reliable superpower than that.

In the hands of such a president, America cannot be counted on.

When it comes to security, stability and prosperity, allies will need to fend for themselves.

And they will need new friends. If Washington can’t be relied on, Beijing beckons.

America First will, more and more, mean America on its own.

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‘A genius actor’, ‘firecracker’, and ‘my friend’: Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

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'A genius actor', 'firecracker', and 'my friend': Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

Actors, directors and celebrity friends have paid tribute to Val Kilmer, after he died aged 65.

The California-born star of Top Gun, Batman and Heat died of pneumonia on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, his daughter Mercedes told the Associated Press.

She said Kilmer was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2014 but later recovered.

Tributes flooded in after reports broke of the actor’s death, with No Country For Old Men star Josh Brolin among the first to share their memories.

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Watch: Val Kilmer in his most iconic roles

He wrote on Instagram: “See ya, pal. I’m going to miss you. You were a smart, challenging, brave, uber-creative firecracker. There’s not a lot left of those.

“I hope to see you up there in the heavens when I eventually get there. Until then, amazing memories, lovely thoughts.”

Kyle Maclachlan, who co-starred with Kilmer in the 1991 biopic The Doors, wrote on social media: “You’ll always be my Jim. See you on the other side my friend.”

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Michael Mann, who directed Kilmer in 1995’s Heat, also paid tribute in a statement, saying: “I always marvelled at the range, the brilliant variability within the powerful current of Val’s possessing and expressing character.

“After so many years of Val battling disease and maintaining his spirit, this is tremendously sad news.”

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Heat co-star Danny Trejo also called Kilmer “a great actor, a wonderful person, and a dear friend of mine” on Instagram.

Cher, who once dated the actor, said on X that “U Were Funny, crazy, pain in the ass, GREAT FRIEND… BRILLIANT as Mark Twain, BRAVE here during ur sickness”.

Lifelong friend and director of Twixt, Francis Ford Coppola said: “Val Kilmer was the most talented actor when in his High School, and that talent only grew greater throughout his life.

“He was a wonderful person to work with and a joy to know – I will always remember him.”

The Top Gun account on X also said it was remembering Kilmer, who starred as Iceman in both the 1986 original and 2022 sequel, and “whose indelible cinematic mark spanned genres and generations”.

Nicolas Cage added that “I always liked Val and am sad to hear of his passing”.

“I thought he was a genius actor,” he said. “I enjoyed working with him on Bad Lieutenant and I admired his commitment and sense of humor.

“He should have won the Oscar for The Doors.”

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