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Asked last week if “shock and awe” would be a good way to describe how the next few days and weeks might feel, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon offered a different analogy, predicting “days of thunder”.

The second term of Donald Trump will be like no other in modern history because he is like no other president.

Not only is he different in character, style, priorities, and execution but he has done it all before and with a useful gap since.

His four-year interregnum has allowed him to learn from his mistakes and he has had the time to build a team of chosen ones who have been playing a long game, preparing for this moment to, as his slogan puts it, “make America great again”.

Many months ago I had lunch with a senior Trump advisor and we discussed what his second term might look like.

Back then, before Joe Biden had stepped down and before two assassination attempts against him, his victory wasn’t as likely as it later turned out to be.

The advisor projected forward to the day which has now arrived – Inauguration Day.

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Mr Trump, he said, would sign a raft of executive orders there and then, on the day, maybe even a pile of them on the balcony of the Capitol building.

It would be the clearest of signals that everything is changing; the people would vote for change and with the sweep of the presidential Sharpie pen, change would happen.

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What to expect from Trump’s second term

Well, the day is upon us. The weather has shifted all the plans but has, maybe, made the choreography of the moment all the more striking.

In a change to convention, Mr Trump will join a crowd of 20,000 inside the Capital One sports arena after the inauguration ceremony. Is it the perfect venue to begin to sign the executive orders?

On day one after his first inauguration in January 2017, Mr Trump signed just one presidential order. This time his team have indicated he could sign as many as 100.

Not all will be signed on day one but it is expected that many will be in a blitz designed to assert authority and to overwhelm flabbergasted critics.

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Speaking earlier this month, a spokesperson for Mr Trump said: “President-elect Donald Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting day one of the new White House, in what amounts to a shock and awe campaign on border security, deportations and a rush of other policy priorities.”

His incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said: “He will use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail… the American people are going to be pleased with what they see from President Trump within mere minutes of his return to the Oval Office.”

So what can we expect?

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Migrants fear Trump victory

Immigration

Changes to America’s immigration policies are likely to be profound and controversial.

“Mass deportations” have been promised repeatedly and Mr Trump has filled his inner circle with advisors who are vehemently anti-immigration.

“On my first day back at the White House, I’ll terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history,” Mr Trump said at one of his pre-election campaign rallies last year.

Undocumented migrants will be the focus. There are an estimated 11 million people who fall into this category in the US at the moment.

It has been suggested that the military could be used to help round up undocumented migrants in cities across the country. This will include immigrants who have been in the country for many years waiting for the chance to change their immigration status.

Many of the undocumented migrants will have family members born here who are therefore US citizens.

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Trump: ‘US is an occupied country’

Mr Trump has also proposed banning birthright citizenship – an American right enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.

It’s not clear yet how wide-reaching these policies could be or how enforceable they all are. Will the focus be on migrants known to have committed crimes? Or will the net be wider?

“On day one, I will launch the largest deportation programme in American history to get the criminals out,” Mr Trump said in October. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”

His immigration plans are likely to face significant legal challenges. But expect Mr Trump’s White House to want to make visually impactful actions early on to show it means business.

Energy

“Drill, baby, drill” was a phase rolled out to roars at Donald Trump’s campaign rallies. And, true to his word, Mr Trump is expected to instruct federal agencies to begin unwinding President Biden’s limits on drilling offshore and on federal land.

Beyond that, he is expected to push for a rollback of vehicle exhaust emission rules which he has described as an “EV (electric vehicle) mandate” and to resume approvals for plants that export US natural gas.

Expect, too, that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Biden rejoined the agreement after Mr Trump pulled out during his first term.

It all amounts to what Mr Trump has termed America’s “energy dominance”.

January 6 pardons

On many occasions during the election campaign, Mr Trump has said he would pardon people convicted for their role in the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol – an attempt to prevent the 2020 election from being ratified.

In December, he told Time Magazine: “I’ll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.”

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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained

Trade and tariffs

This is an issue that’s causing significant angst globally and with good reason. It’s a central reason why world leaders are treading so carefully in their comments about the new president.

Weeks after his election, Mr Trump promised he would sign an executive order to implement a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, two of America’s biggest trading partners.

Previous pledges by Mr Trump include 10% tariffs across the board, but his November comments about Mexico and Canada went further. During his campaign, Trump said tariff was “the most beautiful word in the entire dictionary of words”.

It’s thought he will use the tariffs in part as a bargaining tool in order to make other countries dance to his tune.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said in November.

“This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

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How Trump’s inauguration will unfold

The prospect of massive tariffs on goods coming into America could upend the global economy and supply chains. It’s also likely to push up prices in America, undermining Mr Trump’s pledge to reduce costs for everyday Americans. So watch for the extent to which rhetoric meets reality here.

A war on woke

At campaign rallies Mr Trump repeatedly touted bringing an end to the so-called “woke ideology” in America.

Education in schools will be a focus with the federal Department for Education in the firing line.

Mr Trump has said he would cut federal funding for schools that are “pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto the lives of our children”.

He is also expected to undo the Biden administration’s Title IX protections that allowed trans students to use the school bathrooms that align with their gender identities.

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Ukrainian soldiers deliver message to Trump

Ukraine

While he’s revised his pledge to “end the war in 24 hours”, Mr Trump is still promising to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end swiftly. The unanswered question is how, and the extent to which it would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Last year, incoming vice president JD Vance outlined the contours of the plan. “What it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarised zone,” Mr Vance told the Shawn Ryan podcast.

Mr Trump’s foreign policy objective is quick wins. While that may yield results in his presidential term, in the longer term, what message would it send to America’s adversaries? Mr Putin has no term limit on his presidency and could do with a pause in fighting to regroup and rearm.

Rhetoric and reality?

This is by no means an exhaustive list of Mr Trump’s campaign pledges that delivered him back to the White House.

The question is the extent to which his rhetoric is matched by action. After all, it is on his actions, not the rhetoric, that he will be judged.

Of the people who pushed Donald Trump over the line in November, a proportion did so precisely because they agreed with every one of his policies no matter how controversial – they want wholesale overhaul.

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Biden’s presidency in 60 seconds

Read more:
Melania Trump – making her own rules
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However many others voted for him because they like his style (and were fed up with the other side) but they don’t really believe he will follow through on the most extreme policies.

“He’s not actually going to do that” is a sentiment I heard pretty often on the campaign trail.

We will find out in the hours, days, months, and four years ahead how reality matches rhetoric and what these “days of thunder” will look like.

Of one thing, we can be pretty certain. We are entering a profoundly consequential time.

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Authorities name 16 killed in Tennessee explosives factory blast

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Authorities name 16 killed in Tennessee explosives factory blast

Authorities have identified the 16 people killed in a massive blast at a munitions factory in rural Tennessee.

They were killed in an explosion on Friday at an Accurate Energetic Systems facility around 60 miles southwest of Nashville. The company researches and supplies explosives for the military.

Investigators are still working to discover the cause of the explosion.

A satellite image showing the plant before the explosion, in April 2021. Pic: Vantor/Reuters
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A satellite image showing the plant before the explosion, in April 2021. Pic: Vantor/Reuters

A satellite image showing the aftermath of the blast. Pic: Vantor/Reuters
Image:
A satellite image showing the aftermath of the blast. Pic: Vantor/Reuters

Those killed were: Jason Adams, Erick Anderson, Billy Baker, Adam Boatman, Christopher Clark, Mindy Clifton, James Cook, Reyna Gillahan, LaTeisha Mays, Jeremy Moore, Melinda Rainey, Melissa Stanford, Trenton Stewart, Rachel Woodall, Steven Wright and Donald Yowell.

Reyna Gillahan. Pic: Facebook
Image:
Reyna Gillahan. Pic: Facebook

Donald Yowell. Pic: Facebook
Image:
Donald Yowell. Pic: Facebook

At a news conference, Humphreys County Sheriff Chris Davis said people in the community probably at least knew relatives of the victims killed in the explosion.

“It’s just small county, rural America, where everybody knows each other and everybody’s gonna take care of each other,” he said.

A candlelit vigil was held to honour the victims. Pic: AP
Image:
A candlelit vigil was held to honour the victims. Pic: AP

Authorities said there were no survivors of the blast, which left twisted and burning metal in its wake.

They said they were working to clear the area of hazards, including explosives, and identify remains.

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Once the area is clear they can begin investigating what caused the explosion, said Matthew Belew, acting special agent in charge of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

He said some of the relevant evidence was spread out over miles.

“It’s almost like putting a puzzle back together,” he added.

“We have worked closely with AES to look at pictures, look at blueprints, any of the identifying things that were in the building. And then we slowly methodically start to put some of that stuff together.”

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Britain has been playing a role behind the scenes of Trump’s deal between Israel and Hamas | Beth Rigby

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Britain has been playing a role behind the scenes of Trump's deal between Israel and Hamas | Beth Rigby

Sir Keir Starmer will join world leaders at a historic summit in Egypt today – to witness the signing of the Gaza peace plan to end two years of conflict, bloodshed and suffering that has cost tens of thousands of lives and turned Gaza into a wasteland.

Travelling over to Egypt, flanked by his national security adviser Jonathan Powell, the prime minister told me it was a “massive moment” and one that is genuinely historic.

US President Donald Trump moved decisively last week to end this bloody war, pushing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas into a ceasefire as part of his 20-point peace plan.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

In the flurry of the following 48 hours, Sir Keir and another 20 or so leaders were invited to Egypt to bear witness to the signing of this deal, with many of them deserving some credit for the effort they made to bring this deal around – not least the leaders of Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, who pressed Hamas to sign up to this deal.

Today, the remaining 20 living hostages are finally set to be released, along with the bodies of another 28 who were either killed or died in captivity, and aid is due to flow back into a starving Gaza.

Some 1,200 Israelis were killed on 7 October 2023, with another 250 taken hostage. In the subsequent war, most of Gaza’s two million population has been displaced. More than 67,000 Gazans have been killed, according to Palestinian health officials.

Then, the signing ceremony is due to take place this afternoon in Sharm el Sheikh. It will be a momentous moment after a long and bloody war.

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But it is only just the beginning of a long process to rebuild Gaza and try to secure a lasting peace in the region.

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Humanitarian aid rolls into Gaza

The immediate focus for the UK and other nations will be to get aid into Gaza, with the UK committing £20m for water, sanitation and hygiene services for Gazans.

But the focus for the UK and other European allies is what happens after the hostages are released and Israel withdraws its troops.

What happens next is a much bigger and more complicated task: rebuilding Gaza; turning it into a terrorist-free zone; governing Gaza – the current plan is for a temporary apolitical committee; creating an international stabilisation force and all the tensions that could bring about – which troops each side would allow in; a commitment for Israel not to occupy or annex Gaza, even as Netanyahu makes plain his opposition to that plan.

The scale of the challenge is matched by the scale of devastation caused by this brutal war.

The prime minister will set out his ambition for the UK to play a leading role in the next phase of the peace plan.

Starmer arrives in Sharm el-Sheikh. Pic: PA
Image:
Starmer arrives in Sharm el-Sheikh. Pic: PA

Back home, the UK is hosting a three-day conference on Gaza’s recovery and reconstruction.

Last week, France hosted European diplomats and key figures from Middle Eastern countries, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar – and later this week, the German chancellor is hoping to organise a conference on the reconstruction of Gaza with the Egyptians.

But in reality, European leaders know the key to phase two remains the key to phase one, and that’s Donald Trump.

As one UK figure put it to me over the weekend: “There is lots of praise, rightly, for the US president, who got this over the line, but the big challenge for us post-war is implementing the plan. Clearly, Arab partners are concerned the US will lose focus.”

Bridget Phillipson and Mike Huckabee. Pics: Sky/AP
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Bridget Phillipson and Mike Huckabee. Pics: Sky/AP

The prime minister knows this and has made a point, at every point, to praise Mr Trump.

His cabinet minister Bridget Phillipson learned that diplomatic lesson the hard way yesterday when she was publicly lambasted by the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee for suggesting to my colleague Trevor Phillips that the UK “had played a key role behind the scenes” and failed to mention Mr Trump by name.

“I assure you she is delusional,” tweeted Governor Huckabee. “She can thank @realDonaldTrump anytime just to set the record straight”.

Today, leaders will rightly be praising Mr Trump for securing the breakthrough to stop the fighting and get the remaining hostages home.

People hug next in Hostages Square. Pic: Reuters
Image:
People hug next in Hostages Square. Pic: Reuters

But this is only the beginning of a very long journey ahead to push through the rest of the 19-point plan and stop the region from falling back into conflict.

Britain has, I am told, been playing a role behind the scenes. The PM’s national security adviser Mr Powell was in Egypt last week and has been in daily touch with his US counterpart Steve Witkoff, according to government sources. Next week the King of Jordan will come to the UK.

Part of the UK’s task will be to get more involved, with the government and European partners keen to get further European representation on Trump’s temporary governance committee for Gaza, which Tony Blair (who was not recommended or endorsed by the UK) is on and Mr Trump will chair.

The committee will include other heads of states and members, including qualified Palestinians and international experts.

As for the former prime minister’s involvement, there hasn’t been an overt ringing endorsement from the UK government.

It’s helpful to have Mr Blair at the table because he can communicate back to the current government, but equally, as one diplomatic source put it to me: “While a lot of people in the Middle East acknowledge his experience, expertise and contact book, they don’t like him and we need – sooner rather than later – other names included that Gulf partners can get behind.”

Today it will be the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey that sign off on the peace plan they directly negotiated, as other Middle Eastern and European leaders, who have flown into Sharm el Sheikh to bear witness, look on.

But in the coming days and weeks, there will need to be a big international effort, led by Mr Trump, not just to secure the peace, but to keep it.

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Trump in Israel for hostages return ahead of Egypt peace summit

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Trump in Israel for hostages return ahead of Egypt peace summit

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The world turns to the Middle East as hostages held by Hamas are returned to their families in Israel on Monday after over two years in captivity.

Thousands of Palestinian prisoners will also be released from Israeli prisons in exchange.

Mark Stone is in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, and Dominic Waghorn is in Jerusalem, Israel, as President Trump flies first to Israel to speak at the Israeli Parliament and celebrate the return of the hostages, before he flies to the Sinai Peninsula.

Dozens of world leaders will follow him to Sharm el Sheikh to witness a peace summit that many hope is the start of true peace in the Middle East.

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Email us on trump100@sky.uk with your comments and questions.

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