What we can expect from Donald Trump’s second term as US president

Published

10 months ago

January 20, 2025

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Asked last week if “shock and awe” would be a good way to describe how the next few days and weeks might feel, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon offered a different analogy, predicting “days of thunder”.

The second term of Donald Trump will be like no other in modern history because he is like no other president.

Not only is he different in character, style, priorities, and execution but he has done it all before and with a useful gap since.

His four-year interregnum has allowed him to learn from his mistakes and he has had the time to build a team of chosen ones who have been playing a long game, preparing for this moment to, as his slogan puts it, “make America great again”.

Many months ago I had lunch with a senior Trump advisor and we discussed what his second term might look like.

Back then, before Joe Biden had stepped down and before two assassination attempts against him, his victory wasn’t as likely as it later turned out to be.

The advisor projected forward to the day which has now arrived – Inauguration Day.

Mr Trump, he said, would sign a raft of executive orders there and then, on the day, maybe even a pile of them on the balcony of the Capitol building.

It would be the clearest of signals that everything is changing; the people would vote for change and with the sweep of the presidential Sharpie pen, change would happen.

Well, the day is upon us. The weather has shifted all the plans but has, maybe, made the choreography of the moment all the more striking.

In a change to convention, Mr Trump will join a crowd of 20,000 inside the Capital One sports arena after the inauguration ceremony. Is it the perfect venue to begin to sign the executive orders?

On day one after his first inauguration in January 2017, Mr Trump signed just one presidential order. This time his team have indicated he could sign as many as 100.

Not all will be signed on day one but it is expected that many will be in a blitz designed to assert authority and to overwhelm flabbergasted critics.

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Speaking earlier this month, a spokesperson for Mr Trump said: “President-elect Donald Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting day one of the new White House, in what amounts to a shock and awe campaign on border security, deportations and a rush of other policy priorities.”

His incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said: “He will use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail… the American people are going to be pleased with what they see from President Trump within mere minutes of his return to the Oval Office.”

So what can we expect?

Immigration

Changes to America’s immigration policies are likely to be profound and controversial.

“Mass deportations” have been promised repeatedly and Mr Trump has filled his inner circle with advisors who are vehemently anti-immigration.

“On my first day back at the White House, I’ll terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history,” Mr Trump said at one of his pre-election campaign rallies last year.

Undocumented migrants will be the focus. There are an estimated 11 million people who fall into this category in the US at the moment.

It has been suggested that the military could be used to help round up undocumented migrants in cities across the country. This will include immigrants who have been in the country for many years waiting for the chance to change their immigration status.

Many of the undocumented migrants will have family members born here who are therefore US citizens.

Mr Trump has also proposed banning birthright citizenship – an American right enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.

It’s not clear yet how wide-reaching these policies could be or how enforceable they all are. Will the focus be on migrants known to have committed crimes? Or will the net be wider?

“On day one, I will launch the largest deportation programme in American history to get the criminals out,” Mr Trump said in October. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”

His immigration plans are likely to face significant legal challenges. But expect Mr Trump’s White House to want to make visually impactful actions early on to show it means business.

Energy

“Drill, baby, drill” was a phase rolled out to roars at Donald Trump’s campaign rallies. And, true to his word, Mr Trump is expected to instruct federal agencies to begin unwinding President Biden’s limits on drilling offshore and on federal land.

Beyond that, he is expected to push for a rollback of vehicle exhaust emission rules which he has described as an “EV (electric vehicle) mandate” and to resume approvals for plants that export US natural gas.

Expect, too, that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Biden rejoined the agreement after Mr Trump pulled out during his first term.

It all amounts to what Mr Trump has termed America’s “energy dominance”.

January 6 pardons

On many occasions during the election campaign, Mr Trump has said he would pardon people convicted for their role in the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol – an attempt to prevent the 2020 election from being ratified.

In December, he told Time Magazine: “I’ll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.”

Trade and tariffs

This is an issue that’s causing significant angst globally and with good reason. It’s a central reason why world leaders are treading so carefully in their comments about the new president.

Weeks after his election, Mr Trump promised he would sign an executive order to implement a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, two of America’s biggest trading partners.

Previous pledges by Mr Trump include 10% tariffs across the board, but his November comments about Mexico and Canada went further. During his campaign, Trump said tariff was “the most beautiful word in the entire dictionary of words”.

It’s thought he will use the tariffs in part as a bargaining tool in order to make other countries dance to his tune.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said in November.

“This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

The prospect of massive tariffs on goods coming into America could upend the global economy and supply chains. It’s also likely to push up prices in America, undermining Mr Trump’s pledge to reduce costs for everyday Americans. So watch for the extent to which rhetoric meets reality here.

A war on woke

At campaign rallies Mr Trump repeatedly touted bringing an end to the so-called “woke ideology” in America.

Education in schools will be a focus with the federal Department for Education in the firing line.

Mr Trump has said he would cut federal funding for schools that are “pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto the lives of our children”.

He is also expected to undo the Biden administration’s Title IX protections that allowed trans students to use the school bathrooms that align with their gender identities.

Ukraine

While he’s revised his pledge to “end the war in 24 hours”, Mr Trump is still promising to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end swiftly. The unanswered question is how, and the extent to which it would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Last year, incoming vice president JD Vance outlined the contours of the plan. “What it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarised zone,” Mr Vance told the Shawn Ryan podcast.

Mr Trump’s foreign policy objective is quick wins. While that may yield results in his presidential term, in the longer term, what message would it send to America’s adversaries? Mr Putin has no term limit on his presidency and could do with a pause in fighting to regroup and rearm.

Rhetoric and reality?

This is by no means an exhaustive list of Mr Trump’s campaign pledges that delivered him back to the White House.

The question is the extent to which his rhetoric is matched by action. After all, it is on his actions, not the rhetoric, that he will be judged.

Of the people who pushed Donald Trump over the line in November, a proportion did so precisely because they agreed with every one of his policies no matter how controversial – they want wholesale overhaul.

However many others voted for him because they like his style (and were fed up with the other side) but they don’t really believe he will follow through on the most extreme policies.

“He’s not actually going to do that” is a sentiment I heard pretty often on the campaign trail.

We will find out in the hours, days, months, and four years ahead how reality matches rhetoric and what these “days of thunder” will look like.

Of one thing, we can be pretty certain. We are entering a profoundly consequential time.

US

Trump signs bill to end shutdown – but doesn’t take questions after Epstein files released

Published

15 mins ago

November 13, 2025

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Trump signs bill to end shutdown - but doesn't take questions after Epstein files released

The US federal government’s longest-ever shutdown has come to an end after Donald Trump signed off a congressional vote with his presidential approval.

But the president was in no mood to field questions from the media after hailing the long-awaited funding bill, which he signed just hours after thousands of files related to Jeffrey Epstein – in which he was referenced – were released.

As it happened: Trump ends shutdown after Epstein files released

Mr Trump has always denied any wrongdoing in relation to the deceased billionaire paedophile, and said in a Truth Social post after their release that the “Jeffrey Epstein hoax” is a “trap” set by Democrats.

His appearance in the Oval Office came after the House of Representatives voted to reopen the government, after the Senate – the upper chamber of Congress – reached a deal on Monday.

The breakthrough came when a handful of Democrat senators rebuffed their party’s leadership – who’d spent weeks pushing for guarantees on healthcare subsidies – and teamed up with Republicans.

The deal then went to the president, who signed it into law.

“It’s a great day,” he declared, as he blamed Democrats for the 43-day shutdown that left federal workers without pay, food aid undelivered, air travel disrupted, and museums closed.

But the big media moment from behind the historic White House Resolute desk was short and sweet – with Mr Trump, unusually, taking no questions from journalists.

What’s in the latest Epstein files?

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee initially published several emails which they said “raises questions about Trump and Epstein’s relationship, Trump’s knowledge of Epstein’s crimes” and the president’s relationship to Epstein’s victims.

White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the “selectively leaked emails” were an attempt to “create a fake narrative to smear President Trump”. He has consistently denied any involvement or knowledge about Epstein’s sex trafficking operation.

It prompted Republicans to retaliate by releasing more than 20,000 pages from Epstein’s files and accusing Democrats of “cherry-picking” their documents.

Epstein took his own life in prison in 2019 following a conviction for soliciting prostitution from a minor, for which he was registered as a sex offender. He was awaiting a trial for sex trafficking charges.

In his Truth Social post, Mr Trump said the release of the latest files were a “deflection” from the shutdown.

Trump and the Epstein questions that will not go away

For years, Trump promised to declassify all Epstein-related files – a pledge positioning him as a truth-teller exposing elite corruption.

Now that others are releasing those materials first, the image that helped return him to the White House takes a hit.

Instead of leading the charge, he’s reacting to it, and among his base, there are many who remain convinced of an Epstein-related cover-up.

Legally, there is nothing new here pointing to liability, but reputationally, this is dangerous terrain for the president.

But he has weathered much worse – his survival often relies on turning scandal into proof of persecution.

That explains why the White House is doubling down on its claim that Democrats are releasing selective documents to the “liberal media” to smear Donald Trump.

The shutdown, which started on 1 October, has disrupted the lives of millions of Americans as all non-essential parts of government have been frozen.

It was the first shutdown in almost seven years.

As he put pen to paper, the president accused the Democrats of an “extortion” attempt over their push for healthcare subsidies – provided under the Affordable Care Act brought in by Barack Obama – to be extended.

“Republicans never wanted a shutdown,” he said.

“It’s cost the country $1.5trn,” he added.

US

What do Epstein documents say about Trump, Andrew and Mandelson?

Published

15 mins ago

November 13, 2025

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What do Epstein documents say about Trump, Andrew and Mandelson?

Thousands of documents from disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein have been released, which reference Donald Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson among others.

Trump latest: 20,000 pages published in response to ‘leak’

It prompted Republicans to retaliate by releasing more than 20,000 pages from Epstein’s files and accusing Democrats of “cherry-picking” their documents.

Here’s what the emails say…

:: Epstein discusses Trump

Three messages, dated between 2011 and 2019, are between Jeffrey Epstein and his sex trafficking co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell and between Epstein and author Michael Wolff.

In the first exchange of emails, between Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, dated 2 April 2011, Epstein wrote:

i want you to realize that that dog that hasn’t barked is trump.. Virginia spent hours at my house with him ,, he has never once been mentioned. police chief. etc. im 75% there

Maxwell responded:

I have been thinking about that…

The name Virginia, refers to Virginia Giuffre, a prominent Epstein survivor who died in April and had never accused Mr Trump of wrongdoing.

Ms Giuffre made allegations of three sexual encounters with Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, who was stripped of his prince title, in her autobiography which was released last month – allegations Andrew has denied.

In the second exchange of emails, between Epstein and Michael Wolff, a journalist who has written several books about the Trump administration, dated 31 January 2019, Epstein wrote:

[REDACTED NAME] worked at mara lago. . she was the one that accused prince andrew. . trump said me to resign, never a member ever.. of course he knew about the girls as he asked ghislaine to stop

The third email exchange, between Epstein and Wolff, dated between 15 and 16 December 2015 shows that Wolff wrote:

I hear CNN planning to ask Trump tonight about his relationship with you–either on air or in scrum afterwards.

Epstein replied:

if we were able to craft an answer for him, what do you think it should be?

Wolff responded:

I think you should let him hang himself. If he says he hasn’t been on the plane or the house, then that gives you a valuable PR and political currency. You can hang him in a way that potentially generates a positive benefit for you, or, if it really looks like he could win, you could save him, generating a debt. Of course, it is possible that, when asked, he’ll say Jeffrey is a great guy and has gotten a raw deal and is a victim of political correctness, which is to be outlawed in a Trump regime.

Responding to the release of emails, Mr Wolff posted a video on Instagram: “I have been trying to talk about this story for a very long time now and perhaps we’re getting close to the smoking gun.

“These two men… had the closest of relationships for more than a decade.”

:: Andrew included in Epstein emails

In several email exchanges, Epstein refers to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and a picture of him with victim Virginia Giuffre.

A photo emerged in 2011 of Andrew, which has become infamous, showing the former prince with his arm around Virginia Giuffre, apparently taken in Ghislaine Maxwell’s London home.

The former duke, who was recently stripped of his titles, has previously said he didn’t recall meeting Ms Giuffre and claimed an image of the pair could have been doctored.

Although the name of the “girl” is redacted, Epstein appears in his email exchange to be referring to Ms Giuffre, who at the time had spoken to The Mail on Sunday, which had published the photo.

In an email from Epstein to a reporter on 1 July 2011, he said:

The girl has fled the country with an outstanding arrest warrant. The da (sic) after she accused others, said in writing that she has no credibility, she was never 15 years old working for me, her story made it seem like she first worked for trump at that age and was met by ghislaine maxwell.

Total horseshit, the daily mail paid her money, they admitted it, with the statement that it took money to coax out the truth.

Yes she was on my plane, and yes she had her picture taken with Andrew, as many of my employees have.

In a separate email to a publicist on 1 July 2011, Epstein writes:

The girl who accused Prince Andrew can also easily be proven to be a liar.

I think Buckingham Palace would love it. You should task someone to investigate the girl Virginia Roberts, that has caused the Queen’s son all this agro (sic).

I promise you she is a fraud. You and I will be able to go to ascot (sic) for the rest of our lives.

:: Mandelson and Epstein talk Trump

According to the documents, Peter Mandelson, who was sacked as the UK ambassador to the US in September, was continuing his connections with Epstein in 2016.

Sir Keir Starmer dismissed him after learning about emails between him and Epstein from 2005 to 2010 – including after Epstein’s conviction for soliciting a minor for prostitution.

In an exchange between Epstein and Peter Mandelson on 6 November 2016, Epstein wrote:

63 years old. . you made it

Responding to the message referring to his birthday several days before, Mr Mandelson replied:

Just. I have decided to extend my life by spending more of it in the US.

On the same day, and just before the 2016 US presidential election, Epstein then replies:

in the donald white house

Epstein goes on to refer to Andrew and Mr Mandelson’s partner, now husband, Reinaldo Avila da Silva:

trump/ and having agreat [sic] deal of fun. In hindsight. you were right about staying away from andrew. I was right in your staying with rinaldo [sic]

According to the documents, Mandelson responds:

Of course, donald in WH. Will he get there? Yes, without Andrew it would not have gone nuclear. Did you advise me to stay with R ? Such a handful but loyal and never embarrassing.

In a separate email from 7 March 2011, Epstein received an interview request from the BBC via his lawyer:

We are keen to explore the possibility of conducting an interview with Mr Epstein, on the subject of the stories which are circulating, however inaccurately, about both him and Prince Andrew, the Duke of York; we’d be keen to hear from Mr Epstein first hand so that the various and at times, speculative reporting which is at large in the UK press can be better
scrutinised?”.

The message was forwarded to Mr Mandelson, who replied, bluntly:

No!!

In May this year, Mr Mandelson was asked by Sky News about his relationship with Epstein: “I’m not answering any questions about him. My knowledge of him is something I regret, I wish I’d never met him in the first place.”

Sky News’ US news partner NBC News has reached out to lawyers for Michael Wolff, Maxwell and the family of Virginia Giuffre for comment.

The top Democrat on the House committee, Robert Garcia of California, said in a statement that the released emails “raise glaring questions about what else the White House is hiding and the nature of the relationship between Epstein and the President”.

The Oversight Committee Democrats say the emails strike “a blow against the White House’s Epstein cover-up”.

But White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: “The Democrats selectively leaked emails to the liberal media to create a fake narrative to smear President Trump.

“The ‘unnamed victim’ referenced in these emails is the late Virginia Giuffre, who repeatedly said President Trump was not involved in any wrongdoing whatsoever and ‘couldn’t have been friendlier’ to her in their limited interactions.”

US

Trump and the Epstein questions that will not go away

Published

15 mins ago

November 13, 2025

admin

Trump and the Epstein questions that will not go away

The newly released files have dragged Donald Trump’s name back into one of the darkest scandals of modern American life.

Emails from the estate of Jeffrey Epstein, released by a congressional committee, don’t allege any criminal activity by the president.

But the Democrats say they raise fresh questions about what he knew about the paedophile and when he knew it.

The key detail comes from two Epstein emails, one sent to his girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell, another to author Michael Wolff.

In 2011, he wrote to Maxwell: “I want you to realize that the dog that hasn’t barked is Trump. VICTIM spent hours at my house with him… he has never once been mentioned. police chief etc. I’m 75% there.”

Trump latest: 20,000 pages published in response to ‘leak’

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Democrats had redacted the name because the victim in question was Virginia Guiffre, who never accused the president of wrongdoing.

In a 2019 exchange with Wolff, Epstein wrote: “trump said he asked me to resign, never a member ever. of course he knew about the girls as he asked ghislaine to stop”.

Those words are ambiguous and we don’t know the context in which they were written but earlier this year, Trump said he had fallen out with Jeffrey Epstein after he “stole” young women who worked at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida and it could be a reference to that dispute.

For years, Trump promised to declassify all Epstein-related files – a pledge positioning him as a truth-teller exposing elite corruption.

Now that others are releasing those materials first, the image that helped return him to the White House takes a hit.

Instead of leading the charge, he’s reacting to it, and among his base, there are many who remain convinced of an Epstein-related cover-up.

Legally, there is nothing new here pointing to liability, but reputationally, this is dangerous terrain for the president.

The mention of a “victim” spending hours with him at Epstein’s home, without clear context, invites headlines and speculation that could linger for months.

But he has weathered much worse – his survival often relies on turning scandal into proof of persecution.

That explains why the White House is doubling down on its claim that Democrats are releasing selective documents to the “liberal media” to smear Donald Trump.