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Asked last week if “shock and awe” would be a good way to describe how the next few days and weeks might feel, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon offered a different analogy, predicting “days of thunder”.

The second term of Donald Trump will be like no other in modern history because he is like no other president.

Not only is he different in character, style, priorities, and execution but he has done it all before and with a useful gap since.

His four-year interregnum has allowed him to learn from his mistakes and he has had the time to build a team of chosen ones who have been playing a long game, preparing for this moment to, as his slogan puts it, “make America great again”.

Many months ago I had lunch with a senior Trump advisor and we discussed what his second term might look like.

Back then, before Joe Biden had stepped down and before two assassination attempts against him, his victory wasn’t as likely as it later turned out to be.

The advisor projected forward to the day which has now arrived – Inauguration Day.

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Mr Trump, he said, would sign a raft of executive orders there and then, on the day, maybe even a pile of them on the balcony of the Capitol building.

It would be the clearest of signals that everything is changing; the people would vote for change and with the sweep of the presidential Sharpie pen, change would happen.

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What to expect from Trump’s second term

Well, the day is upon us. The weather has shifted all the plans but has, maybe, made the choreography of the moment all the more striking.

In a change to convention, Mr Trump will join a crowd of 20,000 inside the Capital One sports arena after the inauguration ceremony. Is it the perfect venue to begin to sign the executive orders?

On day one after his first inauguration in January 2017, Mr Trump signed just one presidential order. This time his team have indicated he could sign as many as 100.

Not all will be signed on day one but it is expected that many will be in a blitz designed to assert authority and to overwhelm flabbergasted critics.

Speaking earlier this month, a spokesperson for Mr Trump said: “President-elect Donald Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting day one of the new White House, in what amounts to a shock and awe campaign on border security, deportations and a rush of other policy priorities.”

His incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said: “He will use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail… the American people are going to be pleased with what they see from President Trump within mere minutes of his return to the Oval Office.”

So what can we expect?

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Migrants fear Trump victory

Immigration

Changes to America’s immigration policies are likely to be profound and controversial.

“Mass deportations” have been promised repeatedly and Mr Trump has filled his inner circle with advisors who are vehemently anti-immigration.

“On my first day back at the White House, I’ll terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history,” Mr Trump said at one of his pre-election campaign rallies last year.

Undocumented migrants will be the focus. There are an estimated 11 million people who fall into this category in the US at the moment.

It has been suggested that the military could be used to help round up undocumented migrants in cities across the country. This will include immigrants who have been in the country for many years waiting for the chance to change their immigration status.

Many of the undocumented migrants will have family members born here who are therefore US citizens.

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Trump: ‘US is an occupied country’

Mr Trump has also proposed banning birthright citizenship – an American right enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.

It’s not clear yet how wide-reaching these policies could be or how enforceable they all are. Will the focus be on migrants known to have committed crimes? Or will the net be wider?

“On day one, I will launch the largest deportation programme in American history to get the criminals out,” Mr Trump said in October. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”

His immigration plans are likely to face significant legal challenges. But expect Mr Trump’s White House to want to make visually impactful actions early on to show it means business.

Energy

“Drill, baby, drill” was a phase rolled out to roars at Donald Trump’s campaign rallies. And, true to his word, Mr Trump is expected to instruct federal agencies to begin unwinding President Biden’s limits on drilling offshore and on federal land.

Beyond that, he is expected to push for a rollback of vehicle exhaust emission rules which he has described as an “EV (electric vehicle) mandate” and to resume approvals for plants that export US natural gas.

Expect, too, that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Biden rejoined the agreement after Mr Trump pulled out during his first term.

It all amounts to what Mr Trump has termed America’s “energy dominance”.

January 6 pardons

On many occasions during the election campaign, Mr Trump has said he would pardon people convicted for their role in the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol – an attempt to prevent the 2020 election from being ratified.

In December, he told Time Magazine: “I’ll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.”

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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained

Trade and tariffs

This is an issue that’s causing significant angst globally and with good reason. It’s a central reason why world leaders are treading so carefully in their comments about the new president.

Weeks after his election, Mr Trump promised he would sign an executive order to implement a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, two of America’s biggest trading partners.

Previous pledges by Mr Trump include 10% tariffs across the board, but his November comments about Mexico and Canada went further. During his campaign, Trump said tariff was “the most beautiful word in the entire dictionary of words”.

It’s thought he will use the tariffs in part as a bargaining tool in order to make other countries dance to his tune.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said in November.

“This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

The prospect of massive tariffs on goods coming into America could upend the global economy and supply chains. It’s also likely to push up prices in America, undermining Mr Trump’s pledge to reduce costs for everyday Americans. So watch for the extent to which rhetoric meets reality here.

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How Trump’s inauguration will unfold

A war on woke

At campaign rallies Mr Trump repeatedly touted bringing an end to the so-called “woke ideology” in America.

Education in schools will be a focus with the federal Department for Education in the firing line.

Mr Trump has said he would cut federal funding for schools that are “pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto the lives of our children”.

He is also expected to undo the Biden administration’s Title IX protections that allowed trans students to use the school bathrooms that align with their gender identities.

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Ukrainian soldiers deliver message to Trump

Ukraine

While he’s revised his pledge to “end the war in 24 hours”, Mr Trump is still promising to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end swiftly. The unanswered question is how, and the extent to which it would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Last year, incoming vice president JD Vance outlined the contours of the plan. “What it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarised zone,” Mr Vance told the Shawn Ryan podcast.

Mr Trump’s foreign policy objective is quick wins. While that may yield results in his presidential term, in the longer term, what message would it send to America’s adversaries? Mr Putin has no term limit on his presidency and could do with a pause in fighting to regroup and rearm.

Rhetoric and reality?

This is by no means an exhaustive list of Mr Trump’s campaign pledges that delivered him back to the White House.

The question is the extent to which his rhetoric is matched by action. After all, it is on his actions, not the rhetoric, that he will be judged.

Of the people who pushed Donald Trump over the line in November, a proportion did so precisely because they agreed with every one of his policies no matter how controversial – they want wholesale overhaul.

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Biden’s presidency in 60 seconds

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However many others voted for him because they like his style (and were fed up with the other side) but they don’t really believe he will follow through on the most extreme policies.

“He’s not actually going to do that” is a sentiment I heard pretty often on the campaign trail.

We will find out in the hours, days, months, and four years ahead how reality matches rhetoric and what these “days of thunder” will look like.

Of one thing, we can be pretty certain. We are entering a profoundly consequential time.

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Trump says he and Starmer will meet ‘very soon’

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Trump says he and Starmer will meet 'very soon'

Donald Trump has confirmed he will meet Sir Keir Starmer “very soon” after the prime minister “asked to come” to the US.

Mr Trump discussed details of his phone call with Sir Keir while taking questions from the media in the White House’s Oval Office on Friday.

“He asked for a meeting, and I agreed to the meeting,” the US president told reporters.

“We’re going to have a friendly meeting – very good.”

Donald Trump and Keir Starmer.
Pic:Reuters
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Donald Trump and Keir Starmer will meet ‘very soon’, the president indicated. Pic: Reuters

He added: “We have a lot of good things going on. But he asked to come and see me and I just accepted his asking.”

The date for their meeting is unknown. When pressed, Mr Trump said it will happen “very soon”.

“I think he wants to come next week… or the week after,” he added.

When asked by a reporter what they will discuss, Mr Trump said: “I don’t know. It was his request, not mine.”

“I met him twice already, we get along very well, he’s a very nice guy,” the president said of Sir Keir.

Sir Keir Starmer meets with the US Special Envoy to the UK, Mark Burnett and others. Pic: Instagram/USA in UK
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Sir Keir Starmer meets with the US Special Envoy to the UK, Mark Burnett and others. Pic: Instagram/USA in UK

The call between the president and prime minister is understood to have happened on Thursday during Sir Keir’s meeting with Mark Burnett, Washington’s special envoy to the UK.

The prime minister and Mr Burnett discussed the UK-US ‘special relationship’, and potential “further collaboration” on trade, technology, and culture.

An Instagram story for the US Embassy in London said that, during the dinner, President Trump called Mr Burnett, who “passed the phone to the PM”.

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A Downing Street spokeswoman said: “The prime minister was pleased to host President Trump’s special envoy to the United Kingdom, Mark Burnett, at Downing Street last night, during which he took a call from President Trump and discussed his forthcoming visit to the US.”

She added: “Mr Burnett and the prime minister agreed on the unique and special nature of the UK-US relationship, the strength of our alliance, and the warmth of the connection between the two countries.”

Sir Keir’s upcoming trip comes as the United Kingdom faces the potential threat of trade tariffs set by the US.

Mr Trump announced plans to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on all countries that impose extra costs on goods from the US, including countries which charge VAT on goods, like the UK.

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Donald Trump triggers prospect of global trade war over ‘reciprocal’ tariff plan – increasing risk of tensions and inflation

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Donald Trump triggers prospect of global trade war over 'reciprocal' tariff plan - increasing risk of tensions and inflation

The US president has promised to target countries which charge tax on US imports by matching them with a reciprocal tariff.

Donald Trump has ordered his team to start calculating duties by early April – increasing fears of a global trade war that could also accelerate US inflation.

“On trade, I have decided for purposes of fairness, that I will charge a reciprocal tariff, meaning whatever countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them. No more, no less,” he posted on Truth Social.

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What is America’s trade position?

It is set to spark negotiations with dozens of countries aimed at lowering their tariffs and trade barriers. The US wants to shrink its goods trade deficit which topped $1.2trn (£954bn) last year.

A White House official said that countries with large US trade surpluses could be targeted first. The top five are China, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland and Germany, according to the US Census Bureau.

Trump’s total trade war


Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business and economics correspondent

@pkelso

Taken at face value Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war.

It would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.

In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise.

The aim is to address a near trillion dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.

In response, he wants to deploy tariffs to simultaneously ease the US deficit and – in theory – price out imports in favour of domestic production.

His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.

It is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.

Read more from Paul here.

UK government minister Pat McFadden told Sky News’ Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge that Britain will take a “wait and see” approach when it comes to the tariffs. He refused to say if the government would retaliate.

Trump latest: New tariffs signal ‘total trade war’

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The UK could be hit with tariffs as high as 24% if Mr Trump follows through on his threats to treat VAT as a tariff, according to Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

Although some estimates are lower, he thinks Britain would be the fourth hardest hit, following India (29%), Brazil (28%) and the EU (25%).

This is based on VAT rates combined with existing tariffs, but the Trump administration also intends to take into account regulations, government subsidies, digital services taxation policies and exchange rate policies.

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“Most people would consider VAT to be a non-discriminatory tax since it is also applied to domestically-produced goods making a level playing field,” said Mr Ashworth.

But the US still argues that VAT is a form of discriminatory tariff because America applies a much lower average sales tax at state level.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks as President Donald Trump listens during a news conference in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
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Narendra Modi and Donald Trump at the White House. Pic: AP

On Thursday, Mr Trump also held a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, agreeing to join forces on artificial intelligence, semiconductors and strategic minerals.

During a news conference afterwards, Mr Trump said India has been “very strong on tariffs” and “it’s very hard to sell into India”, adding: “They’re going to be purchasing a lot of our oil and gas.”

India’s tariff rates are the highest, according to the World Trade Organisation, with a simple average 17% rate for all products compared to 3.3% for the US.

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Risk of rising US prices could be biggest brake on Donald Trump’s tariff plan

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Risk of rising US prices could be biggest brake on Donald Trump's tariff plan

Taken at face value Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war, that would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.

In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise to address a near trillion dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.

In response, he wants to deploy tariffs as an “external revenue service”, simultaneously easing the US deficit and, so the theory goes, pricing out imports in favour of domestic production.

Follow latest: Trump’s trading tariffs

With a promise to reestablish industries, from chip production lost to Taiwan, and car and pharmaceutical manufacturing to Europe, he is promising a country-by-country tailored assault on the status quo.

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Donald Trump unveils new tariffs for trading partners

Risk to Britain remains uncertain

His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.

Mexico and Canada, the European Union (whose 10% tariff on US cars is a particular irritation), as well as the ‘BRICS’ nations – Brazil, Russia, India (which imposes 9% tariffs on US imports), China and South Africa.

What it means for the UK will not be certain until the details are revealed in April, but it is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.

To begin with, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK – in a quirk of statistics, the UK thinks it has a surplus too – and Brexit has placed it outside the EU bloc with the ability at least in theory to be more agile.

The UK also imposes direct tariffs on very few US goods following a deal in 2021, brokered by then trade secretary Liz Truss, that removed tariffs on denim and motorcycles bound for Britain, and cashmere and Scotch whisky heading the other way.

But we do add VAT to imports, and Mr Trump’s threat to treat the sales tax as a tariff by another name will chill British exporters.

Read more from Sky News:
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Fears Ukraine has been ‘betrayed’
Farage explores NatWest legal action

President Donald Trump listens as he meets with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, in Washington. (Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Donald Trump accepts his tariffs will be inflationary for the US. Pic: AP

Tariffs set to raise prices in US

Analysts have estimated tariffs could add 21% to the cost of exports, amounting to a £24bn blow to national income.

Pharmaceuticals, cars, chemicals, scientific instruments and the aerospace industry – the main components of our £182bn US export trade – will all be potentially affected.

But the pain will certainly be shared.

Tariffs are paid by the importer, not the exporter, and even Mr Trump accepts they will be inflationary.

Rising prices on Main Street could yet be the biggest brake on the president’s tariff plan.

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