A mechanism involving a slow, creeping movement without seismic activity has been identified as a critical precursor to earthquakes. This discovery sheds light on how stress builds up along tectonic faults before a rupture occurs. Researchers have linked the process to the physical dynamics of materials under stress, which could transform understanding of earthquake triggers and potentially aid in predicting seismic events.

Mechanics of the Discovery

According to the study published in Nature, experiments recreated earthquake-like fractures using sheets of polymethyl methacrylate, commonly known as plexiglass. These sheets were subjected to forces similar to those experienced at tectonic fault lines, such as California’s San Andreas Fault. Jay Fineberg, a physicist at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, explained to Live Science that the fracture dynamics of plexiglass closely resemble those of tectonic faults.

The Role of Nucleation Fronts

Reports indicate that cracks begin with a “nucleation front,” a phase characterised by slow movement. This movement, described as “aseismic,” does not generate the kinetic energy associated with seismic waves. The research identified that the slow-moving phase transitions to a rapid fracture when a critical balance of energy is disrupted. This marks the onset of the explosive rupture associated with earthquakes.

Advancements in Modelling++

According to Jay Fineberg, the slow nucleation phase was found to require modelling in two dimensions rather than one. This updated understanding highlighted the patch-like nature of initial cracks, which expand within the brittle interface separating the plates. When this patch grows beyond the brittle zone, energy imbalances drive the rapid acceleration of the crack, leading to seismic activity.

Potential Applications and Challenges

Reports suggest that this research offers potential pathways for predicting seismic events. The detection of aseismic movements could serve as an early warning sign. However, real-world complexities, including prolonged aseismic creep along faults, make practical applications challenging.
Efforts to monitor the transition from aseismic to seismic phases in laboratory conditions continue, as researchers aim to refine their understanding of these processes. Fineberg and his team are employing advanced techniques to study the signals emitted during these transitions, which remain elusive in natural fault settings.