2025 Way-Too-Early Top 25: Where do Ohio State and Notre Dame rank?
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Mark Schlabach
ATLANTA — Ohio State’s high-powered offense proved to be too much for Notre Dame in the Buckeyes’ 34-23 victory in Monday’s national title game.
The Buckeyes captured their first national title in 10 years and first under coach Ryan Day. It was the school’s seventh national championship overall.
Even with Ohio State having a boatload of players who are expected to move on and be chosen in April’s NFL draft, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2025.
The Buckeyes will still have star players, such as receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, and they’ll plug holes with another top recruiting class and group of transfers.
Ohio State will be looking for a new quarterback as well, but it won’t be alone among the potential CFP contenders. Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, Oregon and others will be developing new signal-callers, too.
Here’s the 2025 ESPN Way-Too-Early Top 25:
2024 record: 14-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Jeremiah Smith, WR Carnell Tate, S Caleb Downs
Key losses: RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, QB Will Howard, G Donovan Jackson, LB Cody Simon, S Lathan Ransom, DE Jack Sawyer, DE JT Tuimoloau, CB Denzel Burke
2025 outlook: After winning the program’s third national championship since 2002, the Buckeyes are going to undergo a bit of a makeover — but so are most of the other Big Ten contenders. The core group of seniors who came back in 2024 — led by Sawyer, Henderson, Egbuka and others — will be missed. Julian Sayin, a five-star prospect who transferred from Alabama, will probably be QB1 after Devin Brown and Air Noland entered the transfer portal. Sayin will have the luxury of throwing to Smith, the best receiver in the FBS, and the Buckeyes picked up tailback CJ Donaldson (West Virginia) and tight end Max Klare (Purdue) from the portal. Ohio State’s offense will be even better if RB Quinshon Judkins decides to come back. Some younger players will have to step up on the defensive line and in the secondary, but at least Downs is coming back.
2024 record: 13-3, 7-1 SEC
Key returning players: QB Arch Manning, RB Quintrevion Wisner, LB Anthony Hill Jr., DE Colin Simmons, DE Trey Moore, S Michael Taaffe
Key losses: QB Quinn Ewers, WR Matthew Golden, OT Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Cameron Williams, S Andrew Mukuba, CB Jahdae Barron, TE Gunnar Helm
2025 outlook: In their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns more than proved they were good enough to compete, reaching the SEC title game and CFP semifinals. With Ewers moving on, the highly anticipated Manning era will kick off in 2025. The Longhorns will have to rebuild their offensive line and replace some key receivers, including Golden and Isaiah Bond. There are big losses up front, with Banks, Williams, center Jake Majors and guard Hayden Conner departing. There’s a good nucleus returning on defense, led by linebackers Hill and Simmons, but three of the top four defensive backs are leaving. The Longhorns added linebacker Brad Spence (Arkansas) and defensive linemen Cole Brevard (Purdue) and Travis Shaw (North Carolina) from the portal. Texas opens the season Aug. 30 at Ohio State, a big early test for Manning.
2024 record: 13-3, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Drew Allar, RB Kaytron Allen, RB Nicholas Singleton, C Nick Dawkins, DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, S Zakee Wheatley, CB A.J. Harris
Key losses: DE Abdul Carter, TE Tyler Warren, S Jaylen Reed, G Sal Wormley, DT Dvon J-Thomas, LB Kobe King
2025 outlook: With Allar, Allen and Singleton returning, the Nittany Lions might get a senior boost like Ohio State did in 2024. Penn State came up short against Notre Dame in a CFP semifinal game at the Orange Bowl, but it was coach James Franklin’s best season. If Allar can take another step as a passer, and Franklin can find him some capable receivers, the Nittany Lions might be even better on offense in 2025. Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans, the team’s two top receivers in 2024, entered the transfer portal. Penn State added Troy’s Devonte Ross, who caught 76 passes for 1,034 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2024, and USC’s Kyron Hudson. Carter and King are big losses on defense, and so is former coordinator Tom Allen, who left for Clemson. The Nittany Lions host Oregon and Indiana in Happy Valley and play at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
2024 record: 14-2
Key returning players: RB Jeremiyah Love, RB Jadarian Price, WR Jordan Faison, WR Jaden Greathouse, LB Drayk Bowen, S Adon Shuler
Key losses: QB Riley Leonard, TE Mitchell Evans, DT Rylie Mills, S Xavier Watts, CB Benjamin Morrison, LB Jack Kiser, DT Howard Cross III
2025 outlook: With two solid coordinators and vastly improved recruiting, the Fighting Irish seem to be only scratching the surface under dynamic head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish recovered from a shocking early loss to Northern Illinois at home to reach the CFP National Championship game. They’ll miss Leonard’s leadership, but the coaching staff is excited about freshman CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, who was rated the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class by ESPN. He battled an elbow injury on his throwing arm this past season. Backup Steve Angeli will compete with Carr for the job. There’s plenty of depth coming back on the offensive line, along with Love and tailback Jadarian Price. The Irish could use more game-changing receivers — they added Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) from the portal. A few key players will have to be replaced on defense, and tackles Jared Dawson (Louisville) and Elijah Hughes (USC) and safeties DeVonta Smith (Alabama) and Jalen Stroman (Virginia Tech) should help fill some holes.
2024 record: 11-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Gunner Stockton, RB Nate Frazier, TE Oscar Delp, TE Lawson Luckie, LB CJ Allen, LB Raylen Wilson, S KJ Bolden, CB Daylen Everette
Key losses: QB Carson Beck, G Tate Ratledge, RB Trevor Etienne, LB Jalon Walker, S Malaki Starks, S Dan Jackson, LB Smael Mondon Jr., DE Mykel Williams
2025 outlook: The Bulldogs seemed a bit disjointed throughout much of the 2024 season, but they still won an SEC championship and reached the CFP for the fourth time in the past eight seasons. Stockton played well in his first start, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals. He will go into the offseason as the front-runner to replace Beck, who left for Miami. Georgia has to do a better job of blocking up front, catching the football and tackling on defense. It’s time for Kirby Smart to get back to the basics. The Bulldogs added former Texas A&M receiver Noah Thomas and USC receiver/kick returner Zachariah Branch from the portal. Safeties Jaden Harris (Miami) and Adrian Maddox (UAB) were important pickups with Starks and Jackson leaving. Georgia’s schedule won’t be quite as hard as it was in 2024, but the team still plays Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home and Tennessee, Auburn, Florida (in Jacksonville, Florida) and Georgia Tech on the road.
2024 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Evan Stewart, LB Devon Jackson, LB Teitum Tuioti, LB Matayo Uiagalelei, RB Noah Whittington, C Iapani Laloulu
Key losses: QB Dillon Gabriel, WR Tez Johnson, WR Traeshon Holden, RB Jordan James, OT Josh Conerly Jr., OT Ajani Cornelius, DE Jordan Burch, DT Derrick Harmon, CB Jabbar Muhammad
2025 outlook: The Ducks went 13-0 and captured a Big Ten title in their first season in the league. But their dream season came to a crashing halt with an ugly 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinals. Now, Oregon coach Dan Lanning faces a massive rebuilding job on both sides of the ball. But with a No. 1 recruiting class and a few transfer portal pickups on the way, there’s reason to believe the Ducks won’t fall too far. Former five-star prospect Dante Moore, who redshirted in 2024 after transferring to UCLA, is the favorite to replace Gabriel. Stewart’s return is a boost, and receiver Dakorien Moore of Duncanville, Texas, was the jewel of Oregon’s recruiting class. The Ducks are going to need plenty of young players to step up on defense, with only a few starters returning.
2024 record: 10-4, 7-1 ACC
Key returning players: QB Cade Klubnik, WR Antonio Williams, WR Bryant Wesco Jr., LB Sammy Brown, LB Wade Woodaz, DL T.J. Parker, DL Peter Woods, OT Blake Miller
Key losses: RB Phil Mafah, LB Barrett Carter, S R.J. Mickens, TE Jake Briningstool, G Marcus Tate, DL Payton Page
2025 outlook: Maybe Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is doing it the right way, and we were all wrong. Swinney caught plenty of flak for not utilizing the transfer portal after his team’s ugly 34-3 loss to Georgia in the opener. However, the Tigers rebounded to win another ACC title and reach the CFP. They’ll undoubtedly be the team to beat in the league in 2025, with Klubnik, Williams, Woodaz, Parker, Woods and Miller all electing to return for another season. With Williams, Wesco and T.J. Moore coming back, Clemson’s passing game might be even better. Finding a No. 1 tailback, after Mafah’s eligibility ended and Jay Haynes tore his ACL in the ACC championship game, will be a priority in the spring. The defense will have a new leader after Swinney fired coordinator Wes Goodwin and replaced him with Penn State’s Tom Allen. And guess what? Clemson signed three players from the portal: edge rushers Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama) and Will Heldt (Purdue) and receiver Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State).
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Garrett Nussmeier, RB Caden Durham, WR Aaron Anderson, LB Whit Weeks, CB Ashton Stamps, LB Harold Perkins Jr., S Jardin Gilbert
Key losses: WR Kyren Lacy, WR CJ Daniels, OT Will Campbell, OT Emery Jones Jr., TE Mason Taylor, G Garrett Dellinger, G Miles Frazier, LB Greg Penn III, DE Bradyn Swinson
2025 outlook: After the Tigers lost at least three games for the third straight season under Brian Kelly, they seem to be all-in heading into 2025. LSU added more than a dozen players from the transfer portal, including defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). Nussmeier threw for 4,043 yards with 29 touchdowns this past season, and his return might give LSU an edge over other SEC contenders. Rebuilding the offensive line and shoring up a defense that surrendered 24.3 points per game will be areas of focus in the offseason. It has to be better in 2025, right?
2024 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Jake Retzlaff, RB LJ Martin, WR Chase Roberts, WR/KR Keelan Marion, LB Harrison Taggart, LB Isaiah Glasker, LB Jack Kelly, S Tanner Wall
Key losses: CB Jakob Robinson, DE Tyler Batty, DE Isaiah Bagnah, CB Marque Collins, S Crew Wakley, OT Brayden Keim, C Connor Pay
2025 outlook: If the 2024 season was any indication, you could probably pick any of four teams (or more) to win a Big 12 title. Arizona State, BYU and Colorado were unlikely contenders this past season, and the Cougars are bringing back top playmakers Retzlaff, Martin, Roberts and Marion. There are a couple of starters who will have to be replaced on the offensive line, but reinforcements from the transfer portal should help. On defense, four of the top five tacklers should return, although BYU will have to reload up front. Kalani Sitake has built a solid program that should contend in the Big 12 each season. The Cougars won’t play Arizona State or Kansas State during the regular season, and road games at Iowa State and Colorado might be tricky.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB LaNorris Sellers, WR Mazeo Bennett Jr., LT Josiah Thompson, S Jalon Kilgore, DE Dylan Stewart, DE Bryan Thomas Jr., S DQ Smith
Key losses: S Nick Emmanwori, DT T.J. Sanders, DE Kyle Kennard, LB Debo Williams, LB Demetrius Knight Jr., G Kamaar Bell, C Vershon Lee, G Torricelli Simpkins III, RB Raheim Sanders
2025 outlook: After a bounce-back campaign in which the Gamecocks won four more games than in 2023 — including victories over Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson — they’ll have to replace the heart and soul of their defense this offseason. There are big personnel losses at all three levels, including Sanders and Kennard up front and Emmanwori on the back end. Three additions from the portal — defensive tackle Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Texas A&M), LB Shawn Murphy (Florida State) and end Jaylen Brown (Missouri) — might be able to help. Sellers will be working under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula, and improving his pocket presence and consistency will be a priority. Rahsul Faison, who ran for 1,109 yards with eight touchdowns at Utah State in 2024, will get a chance to replace leading rusher Sanders. If Sellers improves, the Gamecocks might be an even bigger surprise in 2025.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Rocco Becht, RB Carson Hansen, RB Abu Sama III, LB Kooper Ebel, S Jeremiah Cooper, CB Jontez Williams, DL Domonique Orange, LB Caleb Bacon, TE Benjamin Brahmer
Key losses: WR Jaylin Noel, WR Jayden Higgins, C Jarrod Hufford, OT Jalen Travis, S Beau Freyler, DE Joey Petersen, DT J.R. Singleton, CB Myles Purchase, S Malik Verdon, CB Darien Porter
2025 outlook: After one of the best seasons in program history (the Cyclones had never won 10 games or more), there’s one goal left for Matt Campbell to achieve — win the program’s first conference title in 113 years. With Becht and two good tailbacks returning, Iowa State has some firepower returning on offense. But it will greatly miss Noel and Higgins, who each caught at least 80 passes with more than 1,100 yards in 2024. Iowa State is bringing in transfer receivers Xavier Townsend (UCF) and Chase Sowell (East Carolina). A few key contributors are leaving on defense, but much of one of the better secondaries in the FBS is coming back. The Cyclones play Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season and will host BYU and Arizona State at home.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: RB Jam Miller, WR Ryan Williams, WR Germie Bernard, C Parker Brailsford, OT Kadyn Proctor, DE LT Overton, LB Justin Jefferson, CB Zabien Brown
Key losses: QB Jalen Milroe, LB Jihaad Campbell, G Tyler Booker, S Malachi Moore, LB Que Robinson, DT Tim Smith
2025 outlook: The Crimson Tide’s first season under coach Kalen DeBoer was frustrating for Alabama fans, who had grown accustomed to Nick Saban’s consistency over the previous 16 seasons. The Tide lost more than three games in a season for the first time since Saban’s first campaign in 2007. Given DeBoer’s track record of success, expect a second-year leap in the SEC — but maybe not back into CFP title contention quite yet. Replacing Milroe will be a focus in the spring; Ty Simpson, onetime Washington transfer Austin Mack and five-star prospect Keelon Russell will battle for the job. The offensive line has a couple of holes to plug, but the receiver corps should be great with Williams and Bernard returning.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Luke Altmyer, RB Aidan Laughery, OT J.C. Davis, C Josh Kreutz, CB Xavier Scott, LB Gabe Jacas, LB Dylan Rosiek, SS Matthew Bailey, FS Miles Scott, RB Josh McCray
Key losses: WR Pat Bryant, WR Zakhari Franklin, NT TeRah Edwards, DE Dennis Briggs Jr., LB Seth Coleman
2025 outlook: The Illini are coming off a breakthrough year under coach Bret Bielema, producing the program’s first 10-win season since the 2001 squad went 10-2 and played in the Sugar Bowl. Now, the challenge is putting together back-to-back successful seasons — Illinois hasn’t had consecutive winning campaigns since going 7-6 in 2010 and 2011. All of the pieces are there for the Illini to run it back in 2025, especially after Davis, Scott and others decided to return. Bryant and Franklin will be missed on the perimeter. Bielema added West Virginia’s leading receiver, Hudson Clement, and Ball State’s Justin Bowick from the portal. All five starters are coming back on the offensive line. The Illini surrendered 21.7 points per game in 2024, but they should be better with so many starters returning. Illinois plays three difficult road games at Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, and hosts USC and Ohio State at home.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Sam Leavitt, WR Jordyn Tyson, RB Kyson Brown, S Myles Rowser, S Xavion Alford, LB Keyshaun Elliott, LB Jordan Crook, CB Javan Robinson, DE Clayton Smith
Key losses: RB Cam Skattebo, WR Xavier Guillory, LB Caleb McCullough, S Shamari Simmons, C Leif Fautanu
2025 outlook: There’s no question the Sun Devils are going to face an uphill climb in replacing Skattebo’s production on offense. Not only did the All-America running back pile up 1,711 yards with 21 touchdowns on the ground, but he had 605 receiving yards and even threw for a score. Kanye Udoh, who ran for 1,117 yards with 10 touchdowns at Army last season, should be first in line to replace Skattebo. ASU brings back some key players in Leavitt and Tyson, who were outstanding in their first seasons in the desert. Cornerbacks Nyland Green (Purdue) and Adrian Wilson (Washington State) might help shore up a secondary that ranked 81st against the pass (226.7 yards) in 2024.
2024 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Key returning players: QB Kevin Jennings, S Isaiah Nwokobia, G Logan Parr, OT Savion Byrd, OT PJ Williams, S Ahmaad Moses, CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson
Key losses: RB Brashard Smith, DL Jared Harrison-Hunte, C Jakai Clark, DE Elijah Roberts, LB Kobe Wilson, WR Key’Shawn Smith
2025 outlook: After reaching the ACC title game and the CFP in their first season in the league, the Mustangs will have plenty of work to do in the offseason to get back into contention. The good news is that quarterback Jennings, despite a rough performance in a 38-10 loss to Penn State in a CFP first-round game, is returning. The bad news: There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball departing. Leading rusher Brashard Smith, leading receivers Roderick Daniels Jr. and Key’Shawn Smith, and top defensive linemen Roberts and Harrison-Hunte are all departing. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is bringing in at least a dozen new players through the portal — quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin), center Addison Nichols (Arkansas) and defensive end DJ Warner (Kansas) are among the most notable.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Avery Johnson, RB Dylan Edwards, WR Jayce Brown, TE Garrett Oakley, C Sam Hecht, LB Austin Romaine, S VJ Payne, LB Desmond Purnell
Key losses: RB DJ Giddens, WR Keagan Johnson, OT Easton Kilty, DE Brendan Mott, LB Austin Moore, S Marques Sigle, CB Jacob Parrish
2025 outlook: The Wildcats won at least nine games for the third straight season in 2024, and their record would have been better if not for dropping three of their last four regular-season games. Johnson is back after piling up 3,317 yards of offense with 32 scores. Replacing Giddens won’t be easy, but onetime Colorado player Edwards ran for 546 yards last season. Brown’s decision to return bolsters the receiver corps, which added Jerand Bradley (Boston College), Jaron Tibbs (Purdue) and Caleb Medford (New Mexico). Mott, Moore and Sigle were key players on defense. Cornerback Amarion Fortenberry (South Alabama), safety Gunner Maldonado (Arizona) and edge player Jayshawn Ross (Alabama) were intriguing pickups from the portal. Kansas State opens the season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, and plays Army at home.
2024 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Elijah Sarratt, WR Omar Cooper Jr., OT Carter Smith, G Drew Evans, LB Aiden Fisher, CB D’Angelo Ponds, S Amare Ferrell, DE Mikail Kamara
Key losses: QB Kurtis Rourke, RB Justice Ellison, TE Zach Horton, C Mike Katic, LB Jailin Walker, S Shawn Asbury II, NT CJ West, DT James Carpenter
2025 outlook: Fresh off the greatest season in the 126-year history of the Indiana program, in which the Hoosiers won more than nine games for the first time and reached the CFP, coach Curt Cignetti is trying to reload through the transfer portal again. The Hoosiers are bringing in nearly 20 transfers, led by former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2024. Tailback Lee Beebe Jr. (UAB), receiver Makai Jackson (Appalachian State) and tight end Holden Staes (Tennessee) were important additions on offense as well. Defensively, the Hoosiers have good production returning at linebacker and cornerback. Kamara’s return gives them a pass-rushing threat, and defensive tackles Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky) and Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State) could fill holes in the interior line. Indiana’s nonconference schedule is soft (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS program Indiana State at home), and it’ll play Big Ten road games at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
2024 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Key returning players: C Jake Slaughter, LT Austin Barber, QB DJ Lagway, RB Jadan Baugh, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, WR Eugene Wilson III, TE Hayden Hansen DE Tyreak Sapp, DE George Gumbs Jr.
Key losses: LB Shemar James, WR Elijhah Badger, WR Chimere Dike. RB Montrell Johnson Jr.. DT Cam Jackson, QB Graham Mertz. P Jeremy Crawshaw, CB Jason Marshall Jr.
2025 outlook: Florida coach Billy Napier likes to say that momentum matters in college football, and his Gators are carrying plenty into the offseason after closing 2024 with a four-game winning streak. End-of-the-season and bowl results can be fool’s gold as well, so it might be a bit premature to get carried away about the Gators. More than anything, Florida fans should have hope after Lagway looked like a star in the making during the streak. The Gators will also bring back Baugh, another impressive freshman in 2024, and Slaughter, their All-America center. J.Michael Sturdivant (UCLA) transferred in to help a depleted receiver corps. Napier also signed two four-star wideout recruits, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. The biggest concern: Florida will again play one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS. The Gators have home games against Texas, Georgia (Jacksonville) and Tennessee and road contests at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Nico Iamaleava, WR Mike Matthews, RB Peyton Lewis, LB Arion Carter, CB Jermod McCoy, CB Rickey Gibson III, LB Jeremiah Telander
Key losses: RB Dylan Sampson, DE James Pearce Jr., WR Squirrel White, WR Bru McCoy, WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., C Cooper Mays, OT John Campbell Jr., G Javontez Spraggins
2025 outlook: After winning nine games or more for the third straight season and reaching the CFP, Josh Heupel has some work to do this offseason, especially on offense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see UT take a step back in 2025. The Volunteers are losing Sampson, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns, and their top three receivers (McCoy and Thornton exhausted their eligibility, and White entered the transfer portal). Three starting offensive linemen will also have to be replaced. The Vols added former Arizona guard Wendell Moe Jr. and five-star tackle prospect David Sanders. There’s a solid nucleus coming back on defense, but Tennessee will miss Pearce’s production on the edge. The Volunteers will open the season against Syracuse in Atlanta, and they’ll play Georgia at home and Alabama and Florida on the road.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Key returning players: WR Chris Bell, RB Isaac Brown, LB TJ Quinn, LB Stanquan Clark, C Pete Nygra, RB Duke Watson, S D’Angelo Hutchinson, OT Trevonte Sylvester
Key losses: QB Tyler Shough, WR Ja’Corey Brooks, DE Ashton Gillotte, DE Ramon Puryear, CB Quincy Riley, S M.J. Griffin, S Tamarion McDonald, G Michael Gonzalez
2025 outlook: The Cardinals lost four games for the second straight season under Jeff Brohm, but there’s no question the 2024 campaign could have been much better. Louisville dropped three games by seven points — against Notre Dame, SMU and Miami — then somehow lost at Stanford 38-35 on Nov. 16. Brohm landed former USC quarterback Miller Moss to lead the offense, and Brown is a blossoming star after breaking Lamar Jackson’s freshman rushing record with 1,173 yards to go with 11 touchdowns. The offensive line should be a strength, even after left tackle Monroe Mills transferred to Virginia. The Cardinals have added 20 players from the portal to shore up both sides of the ball, including top defensive end Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina), linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky) and cornerback Jabari Mack (Jacksonville State).
2024 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Key returning players: LB Ernest Hausmann, LB Jaishawn Barham, DE TJ Guy, DE Derrick Moore, DL Rayshaun Benny, S Rod Moore, C Greg Crippen, G Giovanni El-Hadi, K Dominic Zvada, TE Marlin Klein
Key losses: DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, S Makari Paige, DE Josaiah Stewart, TE Colston Loveland, RB Kalel Mullings, RB Donovan Edwards, OT Myles Hinton
2025 outlook: The Wolverines salvaged coach Sherrone Moore’s first season by stunning rival Ohio State 13-10 and knocking off Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. If Michigan is going to build on that momentum, it will have to get better quarterback play from freshman Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, or Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene. Moore fired offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell and replaced him with Chip Lindsey, who called plays at North Carolina the previous two seasons. Lindsey will try to revamp an offense that failed to produce a 40-yard passing play in 2024. The Wolverines are losing two potential first-round picks in Graham and Grant. They added former Alabama five-star recruit Damon Payne Jr. to help fill one of the holes. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale interviewed with the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, so it’s unclear if he’ll remain in college football in 2025.
2024 record: 8-5, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Marcel Reed, RB Le’Veon Moss, RB Rueben Owens, OT Trey Zuhn III, LB Taurean York, CB Will Lee III, S Dalton Brooks, LB Scooby Williams
Key losses: DE Nic Scourton, DT Shemar Turner, DE Shemar Stewart, DB Jaydon Hill, CB BJ Mayes, WR Noah Thomas, WR Jabre Barber
2025 outlook: Mike Elko’s first season at Texas A&M turned south when the Aggies dropped four of their last five games after a 7-1 start. The good news is Reed is returning, along with Moss and Owens, who suffered season-ending leg injuries in 2024. The Aggies hit the portal hard to beef up their receiver corps, adding NC State’s Kevin Concepcion, Mississippi State’s Mario Craver and Texas Tech’s Micah Hudson (although his future with the team is reportedly unclear). Even better, every offensive starter is expected to return. There are massive holes on the defensive front, and a couple of key players will have to be replaced in the secondary. Texas A&M plays road games at Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri and Texas.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Top returning players: RB Mark Fletcher Jr., RB Jordan Lyle, OT Markel Bell, G Matthew McCoy, DE Rueben Bain Jr., CB OJ Frederique Jr., OT Francis Mauigoa
Key losses: QB Cam Ward, OT Jalen Rivers, WR Xavier Restrepo, WR Jacolby George, WR Isaiah Horton, RB Damien Martinez, TE Elijah Arroyo, LB Francisco Mauigoa, DE Tyler Baron, DL Simeon Barrow Jr., DB Mishael Powell
2025 outlook: The Hurricanes will have to replace much of the core that looked loaded for bear in 2024 but came up short again with a late-season loss at Syracuse. Ward, a Heisman Trophy finalist, won’t be easily replaced. Miami is banking on former Georgia starter Carson Beck fully recovering from surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. He isn’t expected to resume throwing until sometime this spring. The Hurricanes will have to restock their receiver room after the top six pass catchers from 2024 left, but they did get CJ Daniels (LSU), one of the top wideouts in the portal. The Hurricanes have also brought in cornerbacks Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Emmanuel Karnley (Arizona) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) to improve a porous secondary. Miami coach Mario Cristobal fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and replaced him with Minnesota’s Corey Hetherman.
2024 record: 12-2, 7-0 Mountain West
Key returning players: QB Maddux Madsen, TE Matt Lauter, OT Kage Casey, DT Braxton Fely, DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan, LB Marco Notarainni, S Ty Benefield, S Zion Washington
Key losses: RB Ashton Jeanty, G Ben Dooley, WR Prince Strachan, DE Ahmed Hassanein, S Seyi Oladipo
2025 outlook: The Broncos claimed a second straight Mountain West Conference title and reached the CFP. Now they’ll begin life after Jeanty, who ran for an FBS-high 2,601 yards (890 more than Skattebo, the next-closest player) with 29 touchdowns in 2024. Obviously, it won’t be easy. Sire Gaines and Jambres Dubar will probably share carries, and the Broncos added former Fresno State tailback Malik Sherrod from the portal. The good news is that four starting offensive linemen are returning, including All-MWC tackle Casey on the left side. The defense brings back a plethora of experienced and productive players, starting with leading tackler Benefield and top sack man Virgin-Morgan. The Broncos play at Notre Dame on Oct. 4.
2024 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Austin Simmons, WR, Cayden Lee, TE Dae’Quan Wright, LB TJ Dottery, LB Suntarine Perkins, DT Zxavian Harris
Key losses: QB Jaxson Dart, WR Jordan Watkins, WR Tre Harris, WR Antwane Wells Jr., LB Chris Paul Jr., CB Trey Amos, DT Walter Nolen, S Trey Washington, S John Saunders Jr., DE Jared Ivey, DE Princely Umanmielen
2025 outlook: The Rebels invested heavily in the transfer portal to make a run at an SEC championship this past season, but came up short and missed the CFP after a late loss at Florida. Ole Miss will undergo a big face-lift in 2025, with Dart and most of his top receivers leaving, as well as much of the offensive line. Pregame might not be as much fun in the Grove this fall. The defensive line will have a new look, with Umanmielen, Ivey, Nolen and JJ Pegues all departing. There are big losses in the secondary, too. Simmons, a left-handed passer, looked good in limited action in 2024. Kiffin is bringing in De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State), Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest) and Caleb Odom (Alabama) to replenish the receiver room. Pass rushers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU) were important pickups on defense.
Teams also considered: Auburn, Texas Tech, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Duke, Washington, Nebraska, Iowa, Army, Colorado
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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