It’s been a topsy-turvy start to 2025 for the stock market. Since the Club’s December Monthly Meeting, Wall Street has been barraged by headlines that sent equities seesawing down and then up. The S & P 500 wrapped up 2024 with a roughly 23% gain despite tumbling in the final four sessions of the year and the first trading day of 2025. While bouncing back on Jan. 3, the Santa Claus rally faltered. After losing ground in the first two weeks of 2025, the past almost two weeks have been stronger, with the S & P 500 hitting an all-time intraday high Wednesday. The index, however, did not finish above its Dec. 6 closing high of just over 6,090. Since the Dec. 19 Monthly Meeting to Wednesday’s close, the S & P 500 jumped 3.7%. The Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 4.2% and 3.2%, respectively, over the same period. Our top performers during that stretch were Coterra Energy, Nextracker, Goldman Sachs , GE Healthcare and Wells Fargo . Here’s how the winners fared over the past 33 days, and what drove the gains in each. 1. Coterra Energy up 23.3% Shares have surged since the start of the year thanks to the strength in energy commodities. The lift in West Texas Intermediate crude and natural gas prices has sent the oil-and-gas exploration and production company higher. Ahead of the January Monthly Meeting — being live-streamed on Thursday at noon ET — Coterra’s advance has put the stock in 26th place out of the entire S & P 500 in 2025. The stock is fourth in the energy sector, which has been the top-performing sector in the S & P 500 year-to-date. After a breakeven 2024, we didn’t want to give back the recent rally. So, we trimmed Coterra on Tuesday and realized a gain of 1% on stock purchased in April 2022. President Donald Trump wants to pave the way with deregulation to boost American energy production. 2. Nextracker up 21.7% Most of the solar stock’s gains were concentrated to the start of 2025 — making up for last year’s 22% decline. It’s not entirely clear what sent Nextracker shares higher earlier this month. We previously speculated that the rebound could be linked to investors repurchasing shares after selling in late December for tax-loss harvesting purposes, which pushed the stock artificially low. Later, Mizuho analysts called Nextracker stock a “top pick” in its outlook for the clean energy and renewables sector, while also raising its price target on shares. After that, then-President Joe Biden signed an executive order that would require more infrastructure needed for generative AI, including new clean power facilities. Both contributed to the stock’s run. We made two sales of Nextracker on recent gains since the December meeting. Nextracker shares were lower Thursday, extending a three-session losing streak. 3. Goldman Sachs up 14.2% The bank stock had two major catalysts over the past month. First, shares have advanced as part of the Trump trade. Investors seem upbeat that another four years of Trump in office could lead to a pick up in Wall Street dealmaking due to a more lenient regulatory environment. Goldman Sachs climbed to near-record highs on its quarterly results on Jan. 15 as well. The firm “once again ended the year as the No. 1 M & A advisor in markets,” CEO David Solomon said on the post-earnings conference call. For the Club, this was a clear reminder of why on Dec. 16 we started buying Goldman in the first place. As part of building our Goldman position, we exited banking rival Morgan Stanley . Goldman went on to receive a plethora of praise from Wall Street analysts following earnings, which has helped it sustain its gains since. 4. GE Healthcare up 12.8% Shares of GEHC have rallied on upbeat Wall Street commentary. Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold in early January, citing future catalysts such as a push-out of China stimulus, suggesting that orders could start to come in after the Chinese New Year. The analysts like GEHC’s valuation after the stock pulled back in late September through the end of 2024. GE Healthcare also announced a big partnership with Sutter Health to provide AI-powered medical imaging technology. Media reports indicated that this could garner $1 billion in revenue for the company. 5. Wells Fargo up 12.6% Like Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo received a boost on the Trump trade. For Wells, that could finally mean the removal of the $1.95 trillion asset cap that the Fed imposed in 2018 following the bank’s fake account scandal. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf has been cleaning things up since taking the helm in 2019. Jim Cramer feels the progress Scharf has made should be rewarded. Lifting the asset cap would allow the bank to expand key businesses, especially its growing investment banking operations. This, coupled with a stellar earnings report on Jan. 15, led to Wells Fargo rounding out our performers list. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Jan. 10, 2025 in New York City.
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It’s been a topsy-turvy start to 2025 for the stock market. Since the Club’s December Monthly Meeting, Wall Street has been barraged by headlines that sent equities seesawing down and then up.
Tesla’s ‘Supervised Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) in customer vehicles hasn’t improved all year, based on the best available data previously praised by CEO Elon Musk.
Now Musk points to having to wait until later this year, but wait for what?
Musk had previously claimed that v13 would enable “a 5 to 6x increase in miles between disengagements compared to v12.5.”
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The automaker never released any disengagement data to prove any improvement. Therefore, we have had to rely on crowdsourced data. There is a particular dataset that Musk himself previously shared positively, suggesting that the limited dataset is somewhat reflective of what Tesla is seeing in its own data.
As we previously reported, HW3 vehicles are still stuck on v12, and Musk has admitted that the hardware will never support the promised unsupervised self-driving capability, with no plans to rectify the situation in sight.
Now, six months after Tesla released v13, the program has stagnated as the automaker shifted all its efforts to a “robotaxi” pilot program in Austin, Texas.
Tesla has released a new version, v13.2.9 (left), but it has been performing worse than the previous update (v13.2.8 – right) after over 5,000 miles of data:
The latest data on Tesla FSD v13.2.9 points to 371 miles between critical disengagements.
As we previously reported, the robotaxi pilot program in Austin is a moving of the goalpost for Tesla, which has been promising that all its customer vehicles built since 2016 would become capable of unsupervised self-driving with future software updates.
It operates only in a geo-fenced area of Austin, where Tesla is specifically training its neural nets to be optimized for the area. Furthermore, it is using “plenty of teleoperation” to support the fleet, something that can’t scale to customer vehicles.
The hope is that Tesla’s optimization and focus on this pilot project in Austin will ultimately result in Tesla improving FSD in customer vehicles.
Musk has now commented on this effort:
It’s a new version of software, but will merge to the main branch soon. We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing. That’s probably ready for deploy in a few months.
Quickly after claiming a 4x increase in parameters, Musk said that this would be coming “later this year”:
~4.5X increase in params should be ready for wide release later this year. Super frugal use of memory bandwidth, caching exactly what is needed & squeezing microseconds out of everything are needed to maintain the frame rate. And the whole system needs to be retrained.
It’s worth noting that Musk’s timelines for FSD releases have historically been extremely late.
The better question is what this long-awaited update will bring to Tesla owners?
Electrek’s Take
The promised and paid-for unsupervised self-driving? No. The “unsupervised” self-driving that Tesla is launching as part of the pilot program in Austin is not transferable to the customer fleet. It is geofenced in a small area around Austin, Texas, and it relies on teleoperation, which doesn’t scale to millions of vehicles like Tesla promised.
It’s also important to note that it’s not the first time that Musk has promised a significant increase in parameters. The CEO said that FSD v12.5 on HW4 was a “5x increase in parameters” and that was quite disappointing.
FSD v12.5 on HW4 (left) only brought a 22% increase in miles between critical disengagement compared to v12.3 (right):
In fact, the miles between critical disengagements plummeted with other v12.5 point updates, and it ultimately ended at 184 miles between critical disengagements, significantly below v12.3:
Therefore, it’s hard to get too excited about a new “~4.5x increase in parameters” when that’s what happened the last time Musk called for it.
Additionally, at that time, Musk stated that HW4 could support an “8x increase in parameters,” and it was around this time that he began to express less confidence in his comments about HW3.
It took another 6 months before he finally admitted that HW3 would not support unsupervised self-driving, and Tesla basically stopped making any significant updates on the hardware since.
Tesla is also quickly approaching the limits of HW4 with recent updates.
I think it’s becoming clear that the robotaxi launch in Austin is just another distraction from the fact that Tesla can’t deliver on its promise of making millions of vehicles delivered since 2016 capable of “unsupervised self-driving.”
I’m sure that the effort is going to result in improvements in FSD in customer vehicles later this year, but it won’t be to the level needed to achieve unsupervised self-driving without teleoperation, which again is not scalable.
If Tesla can get closer to 1,000 miles between critical disengagements, it would be nice, but 99% of the value of FSD lies in level 4-5 unsupervised self-driving, and we won’t be even close to that. And that’s what people paid for.
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BP logo is seen at a gas station in this illustration photo taken in Poland on March 15, 2025.
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UAE oil giant ADNOC has joined the fray of firms said to be circling some of BP‘s highly prized assets, as takeover speculation for the embattled energy major kicks into overdrive.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is thought to be weighing up a move for some of the London-listed firm’s assets, should the oil major break up or seek to divest more units, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
ADNOC is reportedly most interested in BP’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, although it is also said to have considered a full takeover of the company. It is understood by Bloomberg that any prospective deal would likely take place via ADNOC’s international unit, XRG.
Spokespeople at BP, ADNOC and XRG declined to comment on the speculation when contacted by CNBC.
A protracted period of underperformance relative to its industry peers has thrust BP into the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate. British rival Shell, as well as U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron, are among some of the names that have been touted as possible suitors.
Any potential deal between ADNOC and BP is seen as far from a foregone conclusion, but analysts point out that the two companies share a long-standing relationship across hydrocarbons and renewables over a range of geographies, most notably in Abu Dhabi and most recently in Egypt.
Former BP CEO Bernard Looney, who left the company after less than four years in the job in September 2023, sits on the XRG board alongside ADNOC CEO Sultan al-Jaber.
Maurizio Carulli, global energy and materials analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said ADNOC’s purported interest in some of BP’s assets is a “significant” development — albeit one that is somewhat expected, given ADNOC is a growing, cash-rich business looking to expand further into gas.
“That said, it seems unlikely that Adnoc would consider a full bid for BP as a whole given the company would not be strategically interested in BP’s oil assets. A few other listed oil majors might, though,” Carulli told CNBC by email.
“BP’s discrete assets, both upstream and downstream, will no doubt capture large interest from a number of both energy and private equity players,” he added.
Strategic reset
Last month, BP reportedly attracted interest from a number of possible buyers for its Castrol lubricants business, a unit thought to be one of the “crown jewels” of its portfolio.
Energy companies including India’s Reliance Industries and Saudi Arabia’s oil behemoth Aramco, as well as private equity firms Apollo Global Management and Lone Star Funds, were all previously touted as suitors for BP’s Castrol unit, Bloomberg reported on May 28, citing people familiar with the matter.
Apollo Global Management and Lone Star declined to comment on the report. CNBC has also contacted Reliance Industries and Aramco.
BP is seeking to fend off a prospective takeover by restoring investor confidence. The company launched a fundamental strategic reset earlier in the year and, despite posting weaker-than-expected first-quarter profit, CEO Murray Auchincloss told CNBC in late April that the firm was “off to a great start” in delivering on its new direction.
Shares of BP have stabilized in recent weeks, following a sharp fall in early April, as trade war volatility rocked financial markets. The stock price is down more than 4% in the year to date.
Allen Good, director of equity research at Morningstar, said it is unlikely BP will be prepared to split with significant pieces of its upstream portfolio, given the firm’s recent green strategy U-turn to double down on hydrocarbons.
Cars are seen at ADNOC gas station in United Arab Emirates on November 26, 2023.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
As part of BP’s strategic reset, the company announced plans to increase annual oil and gas spending to investment to $10 billion through 2027, while slashing spending on renewables. It is also targeting $20 billion in divestments over the coming years.
“Activist pressure has been more on further cost and capital reductions, not necessarily core divestitures. Breaking up the company is unlikely to be the solution shareholders are looking for,” Allen told CNBC by email.
‘A global energy and chemicals leader’
For XRG, which ADNOC launched last year, reports of interest in some of BP’s assets come as the investment company seeks deals on gas and chemicals assets to help it reach an enterprise value of $80 billion.
“We are committed to delivering long-term value for our stakeholders and reinforcing Abu Dhabi and the UAE’s role as a global energy and chemicals leader,” ADNOC’s al-Jaber said at the time.
Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) and president of COP28, during the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas, US, on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said any potential transactions between ADNOC and BP were likely to be hard-driven, with each party striving to defend its own interests.
“BP is under pressure to deliver on its goal to reduce debt, through improved organic cash flow and asset disposals,” Mould told CNBC.
“ADNOC will be well aware of this, and how the clock may be ticking so far as BP management is concerned, and it will therefore look to drive a hard bargain in the process, should it indeed be interested in some of BP’s assets, as reports suggest,” he added.
Chime priced its IPO at $27 per share on Wednesday, above the expected range, in an offering that values the provider of online banking services at $11.6 billion
The company raised roughly $700 million in the IPO, with another $165 million worth of shares being sold by existing investors. The stock is expected to begin trading Thursday under ticker symbol CHYM.
The offering comes after a years-long freeze in the fintech IPO pipeline, as rising interest rates and valuation resets kept many late-stage companies on the sidelines. The market has started to loosen. Trading platform eTorojumped 29% in its Nasdaq debut last month, and crypto company Circle popped after hitting the market last week.
Chime’s decision to go public — even after a steep cut from its last private valuation of $25 billion — marks a major test of investor appetite for consumer-facing finance companies. SoftBank, Tiger Global, and Sequoia all invested in the 2021 round at Chime’s private market peak.
The company’s top institutional shareholders are DST Global and Crosslink Capital, which owned 17% and 9.5%, respectively, of shares before the offering.
Chime’s core business — offering no-fee banking services, debit cards, and early paycheck access — draws most of its revenue from interchange fees. The company competes in various areas with fintech incumbents PayPal, Square and SoFi.
Revenue in the latest quarter climbed 32% from a year earlier to $518.7 million. Net income narrowed to $12.9 million from $15.9 million a year ago.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are leading the IPO.