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Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler speaks at Twilio’s Signal event in Sao Paulo on Aug. 14, 2024.

Courtesy: Twilio

Cloud communications software maker Twilio on Thursday issued a hopeful profit forecast for the next few years.

The company sees its adjusted operating margin widening to between 21% and 22% in 2027 as part of a three-year framework for guidance. That’s higher than Visible Alpha’s 19.68% consensus. Twilio’s adjusted operating margin in the most recent quarter was 16.1%.

Twilio revealed its new guidance at a Thursday investor event. There, the company’s executives also committed to generating $3 billion in free cash flow over the next three years, compared with approximately $692 million in free cash flow for 2022, 2023 and 2024. The Visible Alpha consensus for Twilio’s 2025 through 2027 was $2.76 billion.

The company’s stock price rose more than 10% in extended trading after the company released its presentation for the event.

If 2024 was about rebuilding Twilio’s foundation, 2025 is all about execution, CEO Khozema Shipchandler told CNBC ahead of the company’s investor day.

“If we execute well in 2025, I think we write our own story from 2026 on,” said Shipchandler, who joined Twilio as finance chief after 22 years at GE in 2018 and replaced co-founder Jeff Lawson as CEO in January 2024.

Twilio, which sends text messages and emails for customers, did not issue a revenue growth target for 2027 at its Thursday event.

Management on Thursday also provided guidance for 2025. It called for $825 million to $850 million in free cash flow and the same amount in adjusted operating income, with 7% to 8% revenue growth year over year. The Visible Alpha consensus was $814 million in adjusted operating income and about $808 million in free cash flow. The 2025 revenue forecast was in line with LSEG consensus.

Over 9,000 AI companies are already building on Twilio services. That includes OpenAI, which in December announced the 1-800-CHATGPT service that draws on Twilio voice tools.

“We want to be able to take a bunch more of those, as well as large enterprises on,” Shipchandler said. “We’re kind of open season on both.”

Shareholder pressure increases

After Twilio shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in 2016, investors piled in as the company delivered consistently high revenue growth rates. The stock drifted lower in 2022 as investors became more interested in profitable companies, with interest rates ratcheting upward. At the same time, Twilio’s revenue growth was slowing down.

Shareholder input influenced a reorganization that included a 17% workforce reduction in early 2023, and activist investors Anson Funds and Legion Partners Asset Management agitated for a sale of Twilio or one of its business units, CNBC reported.

Since activist investor Sachem Head Capital Management won a Twilio board seat last April, Twilio’s stock has jumped about 81%, as revenue growth has accelerated and losses have narrowed.

Twilio has an opportunity to show double-digit growth in 2025 and beyond, Mizuho analysts said in a note earlier this month. The analysts have the equivalent of buy rating on the stock.

By expanding into new areas, such as conversational artificial intelligence, Twilio says it can sell into a $158 billion total addressable market by 2028, compared with $119 billion when only focusing on the communications and customer data platform categories.

The company doesn’t believe acquisitions will be necessary to reach its new total addressable market, a spokesperson said.

Twilio’s preliminary results for the fourth quarter show 11% revenue growth, with adjusted operating income that exceeds the top end of the $185 million to $195 million range that the company issued in October. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected 7.9% revenue growth, and according to Visible Alpha, the adjusted operating income consensus was about $190 million.

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Crypto’s long battle with SEC comes to a close with Ripple victory

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Crypto's long battle with SEC comes to a close with Ripple victory

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, speaks at the 2022 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 4, 2022. 

Mike Blake | Reuters

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s years-long crusade against the crypto industry appears to be over.

The final chapter closed on Wednesday, when Ripple announced that the SEC had officially dropped its four-year-old lawsuit against the company. The suit, filed on Jay Clayton’s last day as SEC chair, accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion through the sale of its XRP token without registering it as a security.

Crypto companies and exchanges Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, Binance, and OpenSea all previously saw lawsuits or investigations dropped, resolved or put on hold. Ripple is now taking a victory lap.

“Ripple stands alone as the company that fought back — and won on essential legal questions — throwing a major wrench into the SEC’s plans to destroy crypto in the U.S. through enforcement,” Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty told CNBC in an emailed statement. “The SEC has now abandoned its appeal in our case. In a fitting irony, Ripple was the first major case they brought and will now be the last one they walk away from.”

XRP was created in 2012 as one of the first non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies. It was started by the founders of the company Ripple, and became the platform’s native currency. Like bitcoin, XRP can be bought and sold by retail investors. XRP jumped about 11% after Wednesday’s announcement.

Ripple spent $150 million battling the government in a bruising legal standoff with former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whose approach to crypto was widely viewed as hostile. In July 2023, a federal judge ruled that XRP is “not necessarily a security on its face,” undercutting the foundation of the SEC’s case.

Bitcoin surges as namesake conference welcomes Donald Trump to Nashville

The win wasn’t just a turning point for Ripple. It signaled to the crypto industry that the tide was turning, and built momentum for a movement that helped return President Donald Trump, a former crypto critic, to the White House. A year after the judge’s ruling, Trump, as Republican nominee, delivered a keynote at the annual Bitcoin Conference, and announced that he was “laying out my plan to ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and the bitcoin superpower of the world.” 

Ripple and its crypto peers were major contributors to Trump’s campaign. The president has spent his first two months in office paying them back.

New leadership

On Friday, the SEC hosted its first major crypto roundtable, signaling a new approach of regulation through engagement, rather than enforcement. Leading the effort is Hester Peirce, who is helming the regulator’s newly established Crypto Task Force.

Peirce’s message to the industry is that the SEC is no longer an adversary, but is instead trying to give crypto a clear, lawful framework.

In a major policy reversal, the SEC rescinded Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 — a controversial rule that required banks to treat crypto assets as liabilities on their balance sheets. Introduced in 2022 and championed by Gensler, the rule was widely viewed as a major barrier to institutional adoption of bitcoin and other digital assets.

“Bye, bye SAB 121! It’s not been fun,” Peirce wrote on in a post on X after the change was announced in January.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that month, CEOs from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America signaled that the thaw in Washington could lead to renewed crypto engagement.

U.S. President Donald Trump sits next to Crypto czar David Sacks at the White House Crypto Summit at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 7, 2025.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

And at the White House, David Sacks, Trump’s AI and crypto czar, stood beside the president as he signed an executive order on digital assets. Sacks had recently attended the Crypto Ball as part of the inauguration, where he declared, “The war on crypto is over.”

Coinbase’s lawsuit was dismissed in February. Then came Kraken. The SEC pulled back from its Wells Notice against Robinhood’s crypto division. The investigation into Binance is on hold.

Ripple’s legal team long argued that the SEC’s strategy wasn’t about upholding the law, but about using it as a blunt instrument. The regulator sent subpoenas to foreign regulators that worked with Ripple, demanded troves of documents from business partners and even sued CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen personally. Those charges have also been dropped.

“While this chapter is closed, the fight for clear, fair, and transparent crypto regulation continues,” Alderoty told CNBC. “Ripple will continue to lead that fight.”

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Crypto super PACs pump cash into Florida as GOP faces risk of thinning House majority

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Crypto super PACs pump cash into Florida as GOP faces risk of thinning House majority

Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis delivers remarks before Gov. Ron DeSantis took to the stage during his Don’t Tread on Florida Tour in Sarasota on Nov. 6, ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election, 2022.

Tiffany Tompkins | Bradenton Herald | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

Fresh off its victories in the 2024 election cycle, the crypto industry is going big in Florida.

Affiliates of the Fairshake super PAC, a fundraising group that helped elect pro-crypto candidates up and down the ticket, is trying to boost Republican candidates in two Florida races, which could determine whether Republicans hold their thin House of Representatives majority.

The vacancies emerged after sitting Republican members left to join President Donald Trump’s second administration. One of them, former Congressman Matt Gaetz, withdrew his nomination for attorney general as he faced a number of legal controversies. The other, Michael Waltz, stepped down to become Trump’s national security adviser.

Fairshake is backing State Sen. Randy Fine with $1.16 million in ad spending, and investing another $345,000 to support Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer. Both have expressed support for digital assets.

Orlando school teacher Josh Weil is the Democratic nominee going up against Fine for the seat previously held by Waltz. Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun violence prevention activist in Pensacola,  is looking to take over Gaetz’s seat.

Early voting in Florida begins this weekend. Democrats are aiming to flip both seats in races that have brought in more than $16 million combined, with the vast majority of the cash going towards backing the challengers. The districts have historically leaned red, but Democrats see an opportunity to compete due to the market and economic volatility that have headlined President Trump’s first two months in office.

Fairhsake, which aims to shape Congress in a way that supports favorable crypto regulation, is backed by crypto companies including Coinbase and Ripple as well as venture firm Andreessen Horowitz. It emerged as a major political force in the 2024 House and Senate races, outraising sectors like oil and banking. Fairshake and its affiliates brought in around $170 million in the 2024 cycle, and have $116 million in cash on hand.

The House is currently operating four members short due to recent Democratic vacancies in Texas and Arizona. A sweep by Democrats in those races and the Florida contests could leave Republicans with just a one-seat majority.

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Microsoft rallies in last 10 minutes of trading to avoid first eight-week losing streak since 2008

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Microsoft rallies in last 10 minutes of trading to avoid first eight-week losing streak since 2008

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella speaks at the Microsoft Build AI Day event in Bangkok, Thailand, on May 1, 2024.

Chalinee Thirasupa | Reuters

With about 10 minutes left until the market’s close, Microsoft’s stock was down for the week. It would’ve been the first eight-week losing streak since 2008.

But the shares popped just before the end of trading, pushing the stock up 0.7% for the week to close at $391.26. It’s still down 7% for the year.

The last time Microsoft had a weekly slump like its seen this year was between January and February 2008, when the country was in the midst of a financial crisis. Microsoft shares fell nine straight weeks.

Microsoft’s 2025 downdraft is notable as the company is viewed as central to the artificial intelligence boom. It has a hefty stake in OpenAI, is investing heavily in its Azure cloud infrastructure and has many products that are incorporating generative AI technologies.

Along with its megacap peers, Microsoft has seen a recent pullback on concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and massive cost cuts will hurt the economy, possibly leading to a recession.

Since reaching a closing high of $467.56 in July 2024, Microsoft is down about 16%, pushing its market cap to $2.9 trillion. The company issued disappointing revenue guidance on Jan. 30.

Within cloud and AI, competition is heating up across the board from rivals like Amazon and Google as well as from emerging startups. Earlier this week, Google announced its intent to acquire cloud security startup Wiz for $32 billion.

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