Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler speaks at Twilio’s Signal event in Sao Paulo on Aug. 14, 2024.
Courtesy: Twilio
Cloud communications software maker Twilio on Thursday issued a hopeful profit forecast for the next few years.
The company sees its adjusted operating margin widening to between 21% and 22% in 2027 as part of a three-year framework for guidance. That’s higher than Visible Alpha’s 19.68% consensus. Twilio’s adjusted operating margin in the most recent quarter was 16.1%.
Twilio revealed its new guidance at a Thursday investor event. There, the company’s executives also committed to generating $3 billion in free cash flow over the next three years, compared with approximately $692 million in free cash flow for 2022, 2023 and 2024. The Visible Alpha consensus for Twilio’s 2025 through 2027 was $2.76 billion.
The company’s stock price rose more than 10% in extended trading after the company released its presentation for the event.
If 2024 was about rebuilding Twilio’s foundation, 2025 is all about execution, CEO Khozema Shipchandler told CNBC ahead of the company’s investor day.
“If we execute well in 2025, I think we write our own story from 2026 on,” said Shipchandler, who joined Twilio as finance chief after 22 years at GE in 2018 and replaced co-founder Jeff Lawson as CEO in January 2024.
Twilio, which sends text messages and emails for customers, did not issue a revenue growth target for 2027 at its Thursday event.
Management on Thursday also provided guidance for 2025. It called for $825 million to $850 million in free cash flow and the same amount in adjusted operating income, with 7% to 8% revenue growth year over year. The Visible Alpha consensus was $814 million in adjusted operating income and about $808 million in free cash flow. The 2025 revenue forecast was in line with LSEG consensus.
Over 9,000 AI companies are already building on Twilio services. That includes OpenAI, which in December announced the 1-800-CHATGPT service that draws on Twilio voice tools.
“We want to be able to take a bunch more of those, as well as large enterprises on,” Shipchandler said. “We’re kind of open season on both.”
Shareholder pressure increases
After Twilio shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in 2016, investors piled in as the company delivered consistently high revenue growth rates. The stock drifted lower in 2022 as investors became more interested in profitable companies, with interest rates ratcheting upward. At the same time, Twilio’s revenue growth was slowing down.
Shareholder input influenced a reorganization that included a 17% workforce reduction in early 2023, and activist investors Anson Funds and Legion Partners Asset Management agitated for a sale of Twilio or one of its business units, CNBC reported.
Since activist investor Sachem Head Capital Management won a Twilio board seat last April, Twilio’s stock has jumped about 81%, as revenue growth has accelerated and losses have narrowed.
Twilio has an opportunity to show double-digit growth in 2025 and beyond, Mizuho analysts said in a note earlier this month. The analysts have the equivalent of buy rating on the stock.
By expanding into new areas, such as conversational artificial intelligence, Twilio says it can sell into a $158 billion total addressable market by 2028, compared with $119 billion when only focusing on the communications and customer data platform categories.
The company doesn’t believe acquisitions will be necessary to reach its new total addressable market, a spokesperson said.
Twilio’s preliminary results for the fourth quarter show 11% revenue growth, with adjusted operating income that exceeds the top end of the $185 million to $195 million range that the company issued in October. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected 7.9% revenue growth, and according to Visible Alpha, the adjusted operating income consensus was about $190 million.
It’s been a brutal year for Tesla shareholders so far, and a hugely profitable one for short sellers, who bet on a decline in the company’s stock price.
Tesla shorts have generated $11.5 billion in mark-to-market profits in 2025, according to data from S3 Partners. The data reflected Monday’s closing price of $227.50, at which point Tesla shares were down 44% for the year.
The stock rallied about 4% on Tuesday, along with gains in the broader market, heading into Tesla’s first-quarter earnings report after the close of trading. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The electric vehicle maker is expected to report a slight decline in year-over-year revenue weeks after announcing a 13% drop in vehicle deliveries for the quarter. With CEO Elon Musk playing a central role in President Donald Trump’s administration, responsible for dramatically cutting the size and capacity of the federal government, Tesla has faced widespread protests in the U.S. and Europe, where Musk has actively supported Germany’s far-right AfD party.
Tesla shares plummeted 36% in the first quarter, their worst performance for any period since 2022, and have continued to drop in April, largely on concerns that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on top trade partners will increase the cost of parts and materials crucial for EV production, including manufacturing equipment,automotive glass, printed circuit boards and battery cells.
The company is also struggling to keep pace with lower-cost competitors in China, and is a laggard in the robotaxi market, which is currently dominated in the U.S. by Alphabet’s Waymo. Tesla has promised to launch its first driverless ride-hailing offering in Austin, Texas, in June.
Tesla has been the biggest stock decliner among tech megacaps this year, followed by Nvidia, which was down about 28% as of Monday’s close. The chipmaker has been the second-best profit generator for short sellers, generating returns of $9.4 billion, according to S3.
Nvidia is currently the most-shorted stock in terms of value, with $24.6 billion worth sold short, S3 said. Apple is second at $22.2 billion, and Tesla is third at $17.6 billion.
Musk has a long and antagonistic history with short sellers, who have made plenty of money at times during Tesla’s 15 years on the stock market, but have also been burned badly for extended stretches.
In 2020, Tesla publicly mocked short sellers, promoting red satin shorts for sale.
“Limited edition shorts now available at Tesla.com/shortshorts” Musk wrote in a social media post in July of that year, as the stock was in the midst of a steep rally.
Two years earlier, hedge fund manager David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital posted a tweet that he received the pairs of short shorts that Musk had promised him.
“I want to thank @elonmusk for the shorts. He is a man of his word!” Einhorn wrote. Einhorn had previously disclosed that his firm’s bet against Tesla “was our second biggest loser” in the most recent quarter.
In February 2022, after reports surfaced that the Department of Justice was investigating two investors who had shorted Tesla’s stock, Musk told CNBC that he was “greatly encouraged” by the action and said “hedge funds have used short selling and complex derivatives to take advantage of small investors.”
PlainSite founder Aaron Greenspan, a former Tesla short seller and outspoken critic of Musk, sued the Tesla CEO alleging he engaged in stock price manipulation for years through a variety of schemes.
The case was removed to federal court last year. In 2023, Musk’s social network X banned Greenspan and PlainSite, which publishes legal and other public and company records, from the platform.
Instagram on Tuesday launched its standalone Edits video creation app that offers features similar to those already available from TikTok parent Bytedance.
The new app allows creators to organize project ideas, shoot and edit video, and access insights about content. Edits includes background replacement, automatic captioning and artificial intelligence tools that can turn images into video.
“There’s a lot going on in the world right now and no matter what happens, we think it’s our job to create the most compelling creative tools for those of you who make videos for not just Instagram but for platforms out there,” said Adam Mosseri, the head of Instagram, in a Reel posted in January announcing the app.
Edits appears to be Meta‘s answer to CapCut, TikTok’s sister app that is also owned by China-based parent company ByteDance, which allows users to create and edit video on their phone or computer.
Instagram Edits app.
Courtesy: Instagram
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With TikTok’s future uncertain, Instagram’s move to launch Edits could be seen as a step to gain ground in the next era of short video creation in the creator economy.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump for a second time extended the deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or face an effective ban. The deadline is now mid-June.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk wears a ‘Trump Was Right About Everything!’ hat, as he, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe attend a cabinet meeting at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 24, 2025.
Carlos Barria | Reuters
Tesla is set to report first-quarter earnings on Tuesday after market close.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 39 cents
Revenue: $21.11 billion
Tesla is expected to report a slight revenue decline from $21.3 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. However, investors are going to be more focused on what the future holds after concerns about tariffs and CEO Elon Musk’s close ties to the White House pushed the stock price down 44% so far this year as of Monday’s close.
Earlier this month, Tesla reported a 13% decline in deliveries to 336,681. Tesla blamed the lower deliveries, in part, on the need to suspend production temporarily at its factories while it upgraded lines to start manufacturing a refreshed version of its popular Model Y electric SUVs.
Deliveries are the closest approximation of vehicle sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
At an all-hands meeting with employees last month, Musk tried to reassure staffers that they were still in good hands, and to “hang onto your stock.” He pointed to the popularity of the Model Y, and Tesla’s potential in robotics, artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicle technology.
At the meeting, Musk also made light of the backlash against Tesla elicited by his work for President Donald Trump to reduce the size of the federal government, and his endorsements of Germany’s anti-immigrant AfD party, along with other political rhetoric and antics.
“If you read the news it feels like, you know, Armageddon,” Musk said on a livestream of the employees meeting. “It’s like, I can’t walk past the TV without seeing a Tesla on fire.” He followed up saying, “This is psycho, stop being psycho!”
That was before Trump’s announcement earlier this month of widespread tariffs, the one area where Musk has publicly broken with the Trump administration. On X, he called Peter Navarro, Trump’s top trade advisor and tariff proponent, a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.”
Tesla stands to take a significant hit from the president’s proposed tariffs, assuming they don’t get rolled back. Tesla manufactures cars in the U.S. for domestic sales so it’s not subject to the 25% tariff on imported autos, but the hefty levies on other components and materials could be severe.
Tesla relies on suppliers in Mexico and China for items like automotive glass, printed circuit boards and battery cells, among other parts essential for the production of its cars. The company has sought an exemption from the U.S. trade representative for equipment imported from China that it uses in its factories.