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With Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Anthony Santander coming off the board recently, MLB free agency has entered the homestretch — but there are still plenty of big moves to come in the final month before spring training arrives.

Where will the top remaining free agents, including Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, land? Will we see more blockbuster trades? And will the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reach an extension to avoid the star hitting free agency after the 2025 season?

We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this action-packed winter will wrap up.


Free agency

Jorge Castillo: Pete Alonso will re-sign with the New York Mets.

Alonso, a beloved homegrown star in Queens, remains a free agent. The Mets, with money to burn, could still use another right-handed-hitting slugger. A reunion seems almost too obvious. Add the fact that both sides are open to a three-year deal with opt-outs, according to a source, and it’s a matter of only believing it won’t happen when Alonso signs on the dotted line to play elsewhere.

Yes, the Mets have recently started spending money elsewhere (Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter). Yes, they could slide Mark Vientos across the diamond and give the third baseman job to Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña. Yes, Alonso is a first baseman on the wrong side of 30 with defensive limitations and little value on the basepaths. But Alonso is one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball since debuting in 2019. He has proved he can thrive in New York City. Put him behind Juan Soto, which would give him more fastballs to devour, and Alonso will remain one of the most productive power hitters in the majors for the next three seasons.

The Mets have had a great winter, but the Dodgers have created a super team with the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres also fighting for National League supremacy. The competition is stiff. Maybe negotiations between the two sides have burned the bridge to a deal. But it wouldn’t take much to build another one and make it happen.

David Schoenfield: Alex Bregman to … the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Why should the Dodgers stop now? If Bregman can’t find the big deal he wants, the Dodgers might be a surprise fit. Max Muncy is a free agent after 2025 and prone to strikeouts. Hyeseong Kim‘s bat projects as more of a utility infielder than a starting second baseman. Bregman can shift between second and third in 2025 and then replace Muncy in 2026. Too much money even for the Dodgers? Not really. Between Muncy, Chris Taylor, Michael Conforto and Miguel Rojas, the Dodgers have $49.5 million coming off the books after this season (and the pitching staff is set for years).

Bradford Doolittle: Bregman will sign with the Detroit Tigers.

There are lots of reasons why this makes sense, with the exception being positional fit since Detroit added another infielder in Gleyber Torres. Nevertheless, the Tigers have the payroll space to add Bregman and his positional versatility gives the team a lot of leeway in how to use him for the duration of the contract. He could start at any of the infield spots, and Detroit could move players around Torres to make a number of configurations work. Bregman would be the perfect veteran presence for a young team at the outset of a new window of winning. His history with manager A.J. Hinch gives him a comfort zone. Bregman has to end up somewhere and this makes the most sense to me.


Trades

Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres will make a blockbuster deal.

It was less than four months ago that the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes in the NL Division Series, needing only a victory at home to eliminate L.A. once more. Since then, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has watched his hated rivals not only defeat arguably the most well-rounded team he has ever assembled but win the World Series and then proceed to sign practically every player they want — including Sasaki, the Japanese phenom Preller coveted most. As for Preller himself? January is almost over, and he has yet to add to his major league roster.

There’s no chance that continues. And because the free agent class has dwindled significantly and money remains tight in San Diego, look for Preller to swing a big trade before spring training — the type we have seen from him often. Holes remain in the Padres’ rotation and throughout their lineup. Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth can all be had, and the guess here is that at least one of those four will go. Preller has stood pat for far too long. It won’t continue.

Jesse Rogers: The Boston Red Sox will trade for Nolan Arenado.

After exhausting attempts to sign Bregman, the Red Sox pivot to Arenado as the St. Louis Cardinals start to exhibit a bit of desperation with the season approaching. The fit in St. Louis just isn’t right anymore and everyone knows it. The Cardinals aren’t concerned with money owed to Arenado, so they’re willing to pick up a portion of it because they want quality prospects in return. Boston can deliver that.

Eric Karabell: Arenado will be traded to the Seattle Mariners.

The Cardinals have made it clear they must move on from Arenado to install Nolan Gorman at third base. We heard rumors of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and other teams interested. We haven’t heard about the Mariners, but all they have done is sign utility man Donovan Solano. The Arenado of old might never return — at the plate, at least — but the Cardinals seem so desperate, watch them handle the bulk of his contract and leave Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto with little choice. Arenado is coming off one of his worst seasons, but this Mariners lineup could use even league average hitters at this point.


Vlad Jr.’s future in Toronto

Paul Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn down a $400 million extension with the Blue Jays.

Feb. 18. That is Toronto’s first full-squad workout, and more importantly, the self-imposed deadline for extension talks between Vlad Jr. and the organization.

Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year at an opportune time — he slashed .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which propelled him to a sixth-place American League MVP finish. The Blue Jays must pay up to retain their homegrown star — they’ll offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he’ll reject their overtures and chase free agency instead.

Kiley McDaniel: Toronto will reach an extension with Guerrero.

It’s obviously easier to predict something won’t happen — such as Vlad Jr. looking to test the market next winter or holding out for a better offer from Toronto — than predicting a deal being struck. That said, Toronto needs to make a big move, and after Shohei Ohtani, Soto and Sasaki weren’t that move, the heat is on.

Extending Vlad Jr. is the move the Jays can make as their headline move of the offseason. The longer they wait, the more likely it is that a team with a different economic reality jumps in next winter to top what Toronto can exclusively offer now. The price is a question — I’d think to start at Rafael Devers‘ 10-year, $313.5 million extension from two years ago and adjust for inflation. Regardless, it’s an AAV the Jays can stomach — and it’s a franchise move they need to make as soon as possible.


Off-the-field drama

Buster Olney: Players will start to complain about having to play in a minor league park.

Remember how last year the quality of the uniforms suddenly became a really big deal, and we started to hear a lot from players about that? Well, at some point in the next two months, the fact that the Athletics will be playing in a minor league park is going to become a thing. Players will soon be face-to-face with the reality that they’ll be playing in Sacramento — in a park with one-third the capacity of a stadium like Tropicana Field, with an average July temperature of 95 degrees — and the commentary will begin and roll all the way through the regular season. As with the uniforms: It’ll be a disgrace.

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‘Incredible’ Tkachuk returns, nets 2 for Panthers

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'Incredible' Tkachuk returns, nets 2 for Panthers

TAMPA, Fla. — Matthew Tkachuk made his long-awaited return to the lineup and was back to his old self quickly on Tuesday night for the Florida Panthers, who opened this postseason the way they ended last postseason: With a win.

Playing for the first time in more than two months after dealing with a lower-body injury, Tkachuk scored two second-period goals in his return game, as the Panthers handled the rival Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2 in this Eastern Conference first-round series opener at Amalie Arena.

Those two goals were both of the power-play variety, the first putting Florida up 4-1 — the second goal for the Panthers in a 14-second span — and the next one pushing the lead to 5-1 midway through the second period.

It was just like old times: Tkachuk got twisted up with Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel — someone he fought during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament — after one whistle, took the game’s first penalty on a roughing call (leading to Tampa Bay’s first goal), then made sure his name was all over the score sheet.

Florida coach Paul Maurice, in his in-game, bench interview with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan, said he was comfortable with what he was seeing from Tkachuk in his first game back and expected him to “be the difference-maker” for the Panthers.

“That’s what he is for us,” Maurice said. “He’s got an incredible set of hands, got an incredible gift for the emotional needs of a game, when you need a hit, when you need a big play. He’s been great for us.”

Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart also scored for the Panthers, and veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt, not known for his offense, added two more goals, as Florida, which won the Stanley Cup last June, hammered an Atlantic Division foe in front of a sellout crowd, setting up an all-important Game 2 on Thursday.

Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to be sharper in that game, after a Tuesday performance to forget. The two-time Stanley Cup winner allowed all six goals on just 16 shots, closing with a .625 save percentage. Across the ice, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky made 20 saves en route to the win.

“The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive. We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. “But in the end, we gave up six goals. We’re a pretty decent defensive team, and we have a very good [penalty-kill unit], and we gave up three [goals] on that. … In the end, those are areas of strength of ours, so I’m pretty confident we can button those up, and we’ll be OK.”

Jake Guentzel, in his first season with the club, and Brayden Point scored for Tampa Bay. But the Lightning played the final 33:30 without center Anthony Cirelli, and it showed. There was no immediate word why the 27-year-old center was out.

“We gave up 16 shots, and that’s usually a good night, but tonight wasn’t that. They’re a good team, we know they have good players,” Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman said. “So, for us, it’s all about refocusing, make sure we have a good practice tomorrow, and get ready for the next one.”

Whether Tkachuk would even play in Game 1 wasn’t certain until just before game time. Tkachuk went through practices Saturday and Monday, then took part in the team’s day-of-game skate Tuesday before the decision on his return was made. Maurice even indicated that it could come down to the final few minutes before the 8:48 p.m. start time of the game.

“It’s not really a guy you can put a label on,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “He’s such a unicorn of a player. But, more than anything, just how he is in the room, getting the guys fired up for the game, you feel his energy, you feel his excitement.”

Tkachuk hadn’t played for the Panthers since Feb. 8 because of a lower-body injury suffered during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament two months ago. He missed the team’s final 25 games of the regular season, yet still finished with 22 goals and 57 points — third most on the team in all three categories. He was also second on the Panthers this season with 11 power-play goals.

“There’s no better time to be an athlete,” Tkachuk told Kaplan in a postgame interview, in reference to the postseason. “This is the time of our lives. And just getting a win here in Game 1 is the cherry on top.”

Panthers forward Brad Marchand, acquired at the NHL trade deadline from the Boston Bruins, made his postseason debut for his new team in the win and also played with Tkachuk for the first time. Marchand had an assist and two shots on net in his 17:15 of ice time, and seemed to fit right in with Florida’s dominant forward group.

“Both teams will look at the tape and find things that they can do better,” Maurice said after the win. “But there isn’t an established identity to the series yet.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Limping Lightning seek ‘another level’ after loss

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Limping Lightning seek 'another level' after loss

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh stated the obvious: The 6-2 humbling they suffered against the arch-rival Florida Panthers on Tuesday night was not how they wanted to begin the latest Battle of Florida.

“It’s definitely a salty feeling in here. We didn’t have a great start to this series like we talked about,” the veteran said. “But we know we can be better. We’ve got another level and we’ll find a way to get to that.”

The Panthers took a 1-0 series lead by scoring six times on 16 shots against Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. After Sam Bennett and Jake Guentzel traded goals in the first period, the Panthers scored four straight times — including goals by Nate Schmidt and Matthew Tkachuk that were 14 seconds apart in the second period. Schmidt’s goal was unsuccessfully challenged for goalie interference by the Lightning, earning a delay of game penalty. Tkachuk scored on the ensuing power play to make it 4-1.

“Yeah, you’ve got to stop that bleeding,” defenseman Victor Hedman said. “We give up that third one. The challenge that didn’t go our way and we give up one right away. That’s tough, but we got to make sure it stops there and not give up the fifth one as well.”

Tkachuk, returning to the Florida lineup for the first time after being injured in February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, scored his second of the game on the power play at 9:44 of the second period to make it 5-1 for the Panthers, en route to the 6-2 rout.

“You see him being able to step into a game and be impactful,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “That’s who he is. He’s a playoff player.”

Lightning coach Jon Cooper, who has won two of the three Battle of Florida playoff series against the Panthers, appreciated his team’s effort despite the result.

“I love this team. They try. They’re always trying, and they did that again tonight. Sometimes the results aren’t there. Most nights they are,” he said. “We can sit here and dissect this game all we want. The bottom line is we lost. Whether you lose 6-2 or you lose 1-0 in overtime, we lost the game. Turn the page and move on. Let’s sit here in 48 hours or whatever it is and dissect that one. This one’s over.”

The Panthers are the reigning Stanley Cup champion. Cooper noted that a number of his players were seeing their first playoff action in Game 1.

“We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well. But in the end we gave up six goals,” he said. “The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive.”

That said, it took just one game for the Panthers to flex on the Lightning defense and special teams, going 3-for-3 on the power play. One huge factor in that domination was an injury to Lightning center Anthony Cirelli, their best defensive forward and a key to their penalty kill. He left the game after taking two shifts in the second period. There was no update on his status after the game.

Game 2 is Thursday night at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

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Amaya blast keys Cubs, ‘something you dream of’

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Amaya blast keys Cubs, 'something you dream of'

CHICAGO — Catcher Miguel Amaya was confident he’d be jogging around the bases when he blasted a two-out, ninth-inning baseball high into the Wrigley Field sky with his Chicago Cubs trailing 10-9 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night.

He was right — but just barely.

Amaya’s 388-foot shot landed in the center field basket, sending the home crowd into a frenzy as Dodgers closer Tanner Scott blew the save. And one inning later, the Cubs won the game 11-10 on an Ian Happ run-scoring single off Noah Davis, capping yet another wild affair at Wrigley.

According to Statcast, Amaya’s blast would have been a home run in exactly one park in the majors.

“As a baseball player, its something you dream of,” Amaya said. “As soon as I hit, I felt it was out but then I saw the center fielder getting into position to catch it. Then it was, ‘Oh my god, I have to run,’ but it was enough to get out.

“I love those basket balls.”

It was the second time in five days that both teams playing at Wrigley scored 10 or more runs; on Friday, the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 13-11 thanks to a six-run eighth inning that was preceded by a 10-run frame by Arizona.

On Tuesday, the Cubs led 5-3 after the first inning, but the Dodgers took a 10-7 lead thanks to a five-run seventh aided by an error from third baseman Gage Workman. As has been the case all month, the Cubs kept fighting back. Right fielder Kyle Tucker brought them within one with an eighth-inning home run before Amaya tied it in the ninth.

“They’ve done some amazing things and some resilient things, most importantly,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said of the team’s play on its homestand. “You win games like that early in the season and it’s a great carry forward for the rest of the season.”

The Cubs improved to 15-10 thanks to a high-powered offense that leads the league in scoring at just over six runs per game. They’ve tallied 10 or more runs in seven games already, their most through 25 games of a season since 1895, according to ESPN Research. No other team this season has done it more than 3 times.

Counsell credited his bullpen in shutting down the Dodgers in the final few innings.

The Cubs also did well facing Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. He went 0 for 4, lowering his batting average against them this year to .167. Against all other teams, he’s hitting .302.

He also went 0-for-3 against Shota Imanaga and is now 0-for-10 against the Cubs starter.

“The next 10 at-bats he might get 10 hits,” Imanaga said. “It’s been a small miracle that it’s happened 10 times in a row.”

The Cubs keep on performing miracles at the plate both in the colder conditions this month and in the few games where the weather has been favorable for hitters. That included Tuesday, when it was 71 degrees with the wind blowing out at first pitch. It led to six home runs, none bigger than Amaya’s.

“Basket hurt us a couple times last year,” Counsell said with a smirk. “It was helpful tonight.”

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