With Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Anthony Santander coming off the board recently, MLB free agency has entered the homestretch — but there are still plenty of big moves to come in the final month before spring training arrives.
Where will the top remaining free agents, including Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, land? Will we see more blockbuster trades? And will the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reach an extension to avoid the star hitting free agency after the 2025 season?
We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this action-packed winter will wrap up.
Free agency
Jorge Castillo: Pete Alonso will re-sign with the New York Mets.
Alonso, a beloved homegrown star in Queens, remains a free agent. The Mets, with money to burn, could still use another right-handed-hitting slugger. A reunion seems almost too obvious. Add the fact that both sides are open to a three-year deal with opt-outs, according to a source, and it’s a matter of only believing it won’t happen when Alonso signs on the dotted line to play elsewhere.
Yes, the Mets have recently started spending money elsewhere (Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter). Yes, they could slide Mark Vientos across the diamond and give the third baseman job to Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña. Yes, Alonso is a first baseman on the wrong side of 30 with defensive limitations and little value on the basepaths. But Alonso is one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball since debuting in 2019. He has proved he can thrive in New York City. Put him behind Juan Soto, which would give him more fastballs to devour, and Alonso will remain one of the most productive power hitters in the majors for the next three seasons.
The Mets have had a great winter, but the Dodgers have created a super team with the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres also fighting for National League supremacy. The competition is stiff. Maybe negotiations between the two sides have burned the bridge to a deal. But it wouldn’t take much to build another one and make it happen.
Why should the Dodgers stop now? If Bregman can’t find the big deal he wants, the Dodgers might be a surprise fit. Max Muncy is a free agent after 2025 and prone to strikeouts. Hyeseong Kim‘s bat projects as more of a utility infielder than a starting second baseman. Bregman can shift between second and third in 2025 and then replace Muncy in 2026. Too much money even for the Dodgers? Not really. Between Muncy, Chris Taylor, Michael Conforto and Miguel Rojas, the Dodgers have $49.5 million coming off the books after this season (and the pitching staff is set for years).
Bradford Doolittle: Bregman will sign with the Detroit Tigers.
There are lots of reasons why this makes sense, with the exception being positional fit since Detroit added another infielder in Gleyber Torres. Nevertheless, the Tigers have the payroll space to add Bregman and his positional versatility gives the team a lot of leeway in how to use him for the duration of the contract. He could start at any of the infield spots, and Detroit could move players around Torres to make a number of configurations work. Bregman would be the perfect veteran presence for a young team at the outset of a new window of winning. His history with manager A.J. Hinch gives him a comfort zone. Bregman has to end up somewhere and this makes the most sense to me.
Trades
Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres will make a blockbuster deal.
It was less than four months ago that the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes in the NL Division Series, needing only a victory at home to eliminate L.A. once more. Since then, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has watched his hated rivals not only defeat arguably the most well-rounded team he has ever assembled but win the World Series and then proceed to sign practically every player they want — including Sasaki, the Japanese phenom Preller coveted most. As for Preller himself? January is almost over, and he has yet to add to his major league roster.
There’s no chance that continues. And because the free agent class has dwindled significantly and money remains tight in San Diego, look for Preller to swing a big trade before spring training — the type we have seen from him often. Holes remain in the Padres’ rotation and throughout their lineup. Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth can all be had, and the guess here is that at least one of those four will go. Preller has stood pat for far too long. It won’t continue.
After exhausting attempts to sign Bregman, the Red Sox pivot to Arenado as the St. Louis Cardinals start to exhibit a bit of desperation with the season approaching. The fit in St. Louis just isn’t right anymore and everyone knows it. The Cardinals aren’t concerned with money owed to Arenado, so they’re willing to pick up a portion of it because they want quality prospects in return. Boston can deliver that.
The Cardinals have made it clear they must move on from Arenado to install Nolan Gorman at third base. We heard rumors of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and other teams interested. We haven’t heard about the Mariners, but all they have done is sign utility man Donovan Solano. The Arenado of old might never return — at the plate, at least — but the Cardinals seem so desperate, watch them handle the bulk of his contract and leave Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto with little choice. Arenado is coming off one of his worst seasons, but this Mariners lineup could use even league average hitters at this point.
Vlad Jr.’s future in Toronto
Paul Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn down a $400 million extension with the Blue Jays.
Feb. 18. That is Toronto’s first full-squad workout, and more importantly, the self-imposed deadline for extension talks between Vlad Jr. and the organization.
Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year at an opportune time — he slashed .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which propelled him to a sixth-place American League MVP finish. The Blue Jays must pay up to retain their homegrown star — they’ll offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he’ll reject their overtures and chase free agency instead.
Kiley McDaniel: Toronto will reach an extension with Guerrero.
It’s obviously easier to predict something won’t happen — such as Vlad Jr. looking to test the market next winter or holding out for a better offer from Toronto — than predicting a deal being struck. That said, Toronto needs to make a big move, and after Shohei Ohtani, Soto and Sasaki weren’t that move, the heat is on.
Extending Vlad Jr. is the move the Jays can make as their headline move of the offseason. The longer they wait, the more likely it is that a team with a different economic reality jumps in next winter to top what Toronto can exclusively offer now. The price is a question — I’d think to start at Rafael Devers‘ 10-year, $313.5 million extension from two years ago and adjust for inflation. Regardless, it’s an AAV the Jays can stomach — and it’s a franchise move they need to make as soon as possible.
Off-the-field drama
Buster Olney: Players will start to complain about having to play in a minor league park.
Remember how last year the quality of the uniforms suddenly became a really big deal, and we started to hear a lot from players about that? Well, at some point in the next two months, the fact that the Athletics will be playing in a minor league park is going to become a thing. Players will soon be face-to-face with the reality that they’ll be playing in Sacramento — in a park with one-third the capacity of a stadium like Tropicana Field, with an average July temperature of 95 degrees — and the commentary will begin and roll all the way through the regular season. As with the uniforms: It’ll be a disgrace.
DALLAS — Thomas Harley scored on a power play 1:33 into overtime and the Dallas Stars advanced to the Western Conference final for the third season in a row, beating the top-seeded Winnipeg Jets2-1 in Game 6 on Saturday night.
Mark Scheifele scored for the Jets hours after the unexpected death of his father, but also had a tripping penalty with 14.8 seconds left in regulation that set up Dallas to start overtime with a man advantage.
Sam Steel, who had scored earlier for Dallas, was on a break when Scheifele lunged forward desperately trying to make a play when he tripped up the forward at the blue line. The Stars called a timeout, but missed a shot and had another one blocked before the end of regulation.
The Stars move on to face the Edmonton Oilers in the West final for the second year in a row and will host Game 1. Connor McDavid and his club, which won in six games last year, wrapped up their second-round series with a 1-0 overtime win over Vegas on Wednesday night in Game 5.
Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger made 22 saves to wrap up his sixth playoff series win over the past three seasons. He made an incredible diving save with 8½ minutes left in regulation, leaning to the right before having to lunge back across his body toward the left post to knock down a shot by Mason Appleton.
Winnipeg goaltender Connor Hellebuyck stopped 19 shots but couldn’t prevent a loss that assured a winless record for his club on the road this postseason. Meanwhile, his final goal allowed continued a magical season for Harley, Dallas’ breakout blueliner who also played for Team Canada this season in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
“Not surprising to the guys in here,” Oettinger said of Harley’s rise to prominence. “We’re very lucky.”
Steel notched his first goal of the playoffs midway through the second period. He shot a long rebound from the top of the right circle, sending the puck into the upper right corner of the net just above Hellebuyck’s glove.
“I’m just disappointed,” Winnipeg captain Adam Lowry said. “We couldn’t get that [penalty] kill for [the fans], and get it back to win in Winnipeg for Game 7. But you know, [I’m] really proud of this group, and the way they handled everything, and the way we fought back. … It just came up short.”
The Jets become the next in a long line of Presidents’ Trophy winners to bow out early. The award, which goes to the NHL’s top regular-season team, was won by the New York Rangers last season before they lost in the Eastern Conference final. Two years ago, the No. 1 seed Boston Bruins lost in the first round to the Florida Panthers.
“We lost to a great team,” Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said. “We lost to a team that was in our rearview mirror all year long.”
Scheifele’s effort was a focus for Dallas coach Pete DeBoer, who began his postgame media availability by saying what the Jets star forward did in playing Saturday was “courageous,” adding “I’m sure his dad would’ve been really proud of him and what he did.”
For the Stars, it’s off to the NHL’s final four, as the franchise continues to seek its second Stanley Cup title.
“I think we’ve got something special going on. We’re going to have to prove it again,” DeBoer said. “You know, we’ve been to this spot the last two years and haven’t taken the next step, so that’s the challenge.”
DALLAS — Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele scored a goal in his club’s must-win Game 6 of the second-round playoff series at Dallas on Saturday night, hours after the unexpected death of his father.
But he also had the penalty that set up the Stars’ power-play goal in overtime for a 2-1 win that knocked the top-ranked Jets out of the playoffs.
Jets captain Adam Lowry went and got Scheifele out of the box when the game ended.
“We’re a family. Just to let him know that we’re there for him. It’s just an awful day for him,” Lowry said. “You want to give him the strength, you want to get that kill so bad. We just couldn’t do it.”
During the handshake line afterward, Scheifele hugged and talked to just about everyone, with Stars players clearly offering their support to him in a heartwarming moment.
Scheifele scored his fifth goal of the playoffs 5½ minutes into the second period to give the Jets a 1-0 lead. He scored on a short snap shot from just outside the crease after gathering the rebound of a shot by Kyle Connor.
“I just I know we have a great group here. I knew, going in, once we found out the news that he’s going to have a great support group and we’re going to be there for him through the highs and the lows and obviously today was a real low,” defenseman Neal Pionk said of Scheifele. “[We] did everything we could to give him some words of encouragement, [and] for him to play tonight, and play the way he did, is flat out one of the most courageous things we’ve ever seen.”
The game was tied at 1 when Sam Steel, who had already scored for Dallas, was on a break. Scheifele lunged forward desperately trying to make a play when he tripped up the forward at the blue line with 14.8 seconds in regulation. Scheifele and the Jets avoided a penalty shot on the play, but ended up losing on the power play when Thomas Harley scored 1:33 into overtime.
Jets coach Scott Arniel said the news of Brad Scheifele’s passing overnight was difficult for the entire team. The team was told before the optional morning skate.
“On behalf of the Winnipeg Jets family, our condolences to Mark and his family. It rocked us all this morning when we found out,” Arniel said before the game. “Mark will be playing tonight. As he said, that’d be the wishes of his dad. He would have wanted him to play.”
Scheifele was the last Jets player to leave the ice following pregame warmups, and during at least part of the singing of “O Canada,” he had his head bowed and his eyes closed. He took the opening faceoff against Roope Hintz.
“The thing about Mr. Scheifele is he’s part of our family. He’s part of the Jets family. He goes back to 2011 when Mark was first drafted here,” Arniel said. “We have a lot of players that came in around the time that are still here that he’s been a big part of their life, along with their family. So it’s certainly, obviously devastating for Mark, but also for a lot of guys on this team.”
Winnipeg general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said the organization was doing everything it can to support Scheifele. There was no immediate word on the cause of Brad Scheifele’s death.
The 32-year-old Mark Scheifele finished with 11 points (five goals, six assists) while playing in 11 of the Jets’ 13 games this postseason. He missed Games 6 and 7 of the first-round series against St. Louis with an undisclosed injury after taking a pair of big hits early in Game 5 of that series.
In Game 5 against the Stars on Thursday night, a 4-0 win by Winnipeg that extended the series, Scheifele was sucker-punched by Stars captain Jamie Benn during a late scrum. Benn got a game misconduct penalty and was fined by the NHL the maximum-allowed $5,000 but avoided a suspension.
Scheifele had 87 points (39 goals and 48 assists) in the 82 regular-season games.
As the Vegas Golden Knights absorb being knocked out in the second round of the NHL playoffs by the Edmonton Oilers, they don’t have to wait long before planning for their future. Jack Eichel, who has one season left on his eight-year, $80 million contract, is eligible for an extension beginning July 1.
“He’s one of the top guys in the NHL,” general manager Kelly McCrimmon said. “He’s got great character, great leadership. You see night in, night out what he does for our team, so that will be a really important piece of business for us. We certainly hope to keep Jack in our organization. Jack loves it here, so I would hope we could find common ground.”
Eichel, 28, comes off the best season of his 10-year career, the past four with the Golden Knights. He set career highs with 66 assists and 94 points to go with 28 goals as the center on the team’s top line. He also skated for Team USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off, where his club finished second to Canada.
“Can’t say enough about my teammates and the people in this building and the people that make this organization what it is,” Eichel said. “I’m super proud to be part of this organization and the city and represent the Vegas Golden Knights. Contractually, I think things kind of take care of itself. I’ll just worry about trying to prepare for next season this offseason and go from there.”
Management, which is not known for sitting on its hands, will have other significant decisions to make as well on the team’s direction after the Golden Knights were eliminated in the second round for the second year in a row.
“I like our team,” coach Bruce Cassidy said. “I don’t have a problem with any player in that room. I think every one of them is a great teammate. They care about one another. Are there areas of our game we could complement better? Probably. We’ll evaluate that.
“All the guys that were up, their contracts, they were all good players for us. All good players. No disappointments at all. We’ll probably have to look at areas because we’re not the last team standing. Usually, you think, ‘Where can we upgrade? Where can I upgrade what I do?'”
McCrimmon offered a similar assessment.
“I feel our team was good enough to win,” McCrimmon said.
The Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup two years ago and thought they had another contender this season after capturing the Pacific Division and securing the Western Conference’s second-best record. But Vegas had to rally from a 2-1 series deficit to beat Minnesota in the opening round, winning twice in overtime. Then the Golden Knights lost two overtime games in the 4-1 series loss to the Edmonton Oilers.
“I didn’t walk away from Edmonton saying, ‘We had no chance. They’re just better,'” Cassidy said. “I didn’t feel that way. I felt we needed to execute better in a few of the games and we could be the team moving on.”
Forward William Karlsson said losing to the Oilers made it “a wasted season.” McCrimmon wasn’t as blunt, instead labeling the loss as “a missed opportunity.”
Change will come, but at least given the tenor of the comments by Cassidy and McCrimmon, the Golden Knights will largely return their roster intact next season.
“I think we have a great organization,” goaltender Adin Hill said. “Best management I’ve been under. I think they’re going to do the things that they see fit for [the] roster, whether it’s keeping it the same or whether it’s changing up a few things. I don’t know. That’s their decision, above my paygrade, but it will be exciting to see. We know that we’re going to be contenders every year.”
Forward Reilly Smith made it clear he wants to return. An original Golden Knight, Smith was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins after winning the Stanley Cup and then sent to the New York Rangers a year later. The Golden Knights reacquired the 34-year-old on March 6.
Smith made a smooth transition back into the lineup with three goals and eight assists in 21 games. Then he delivered the play of the postseason for the Golden Knights, scoring with 0.4 seconds left to beat the Oilers in Game 3, and finished with three goals and an assist in 11 playoff games.
“Probably the best hockey I’ve played in my career has been wearing this jersey,” Smith said. “It’s a fun group to be a part of and a fun place to call home. My family loves it here, so if there’s a way to make it work, it’d be great. At the end of the day, it’s a business. My contract negotiations, I probably know as little as [the media does] right now.”