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From shattering the record for most executive orders signed on a first day in office, a bishop imploring him to have mercy on immigrants and LGBTQ+ people, Melania’s hat and Mark Zuckerberg’s wandering eye – the first few days of Trump 2.0 has been not just the talk of the town in Washington DC, but in Westminster too.

President Trump himself said as he took the mantle of 47th president of the United States that he wants to make his second term “the most consequential in US history”.

What is becoming even more clear as campaigning gives way to governing is that Trump 2.0 could prove vastly consequential for us too.

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Talk to those around Whitehall and in the government, and there is a quiet acknowledgement of the ill-wind that is blowing from America towards liberals like Sir Keir Starmer as President Trump pulls out of climate accords, ramps up the war on purging government workers in diversity, equity and inclusion roles, and begins to roll out an aggressive immigration crackdown from mass deportations to a broad ban on asylum.

But what you will see in the coming weeks, is a pointed effort on the part of the government to neither comment nor engage on US domestic issues. This is likely to infuriate liberals and progressives both in the Labour Party and voter base, but when it comes to Trump 2.0 pragmatism reigns.

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This is partly, say those in government, because of the difference in the win this time around.

Trump not only won the Electoral College, he won the popular vote – the first time a Republican candidate has won both in 20 years – and control of the House of Representatives and Senate. That gives a legitimacy and power that he didn’t have last time around and that momentum looks set to stay, at least until the mid-terms in two years’ time.

It is also because the Labour government, and wider Europe, needs Trump onside.

On the big issues facing the government, the US looms large, be it on economic growth – tariffs and trade deals – or security – Ukraine and the Middle East.

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Middle East affected by Trump’s win?

Whether you love or loathe Donald Trump, the decisions he takes on how to handle Israel, Gaza and Iran or bring about peace in Ukraine matters to us, and that means pragmatism must reign and punches pulled when it comes to the deep ideological divisions that are so obvious between Donald Trump’s politics and that of Keir Starmer.

We are entering more turbulent times and one very senior political figure admits it is going to be “rocky”.

They say this is because we find ourselves in a period where the organising principle for western foreign policy – the rules-based international order – is in quick retreat, as the US and Europe struggle to contain territorial and political ambitions of authoritarian countries like Russia and China.

Tricky terrain to navigate, the four priorities Starmer will want to try to land with President Trump when he gets an audience in the coming weeks are – Ukraine, the Middle East, tariffs and trade.

On the first, the contours of a plan are being discussed but the challenge is to get Putin to the negotiating table.

Russia, aware that President Trump is unwilling to keep pouring military aid into Ukraine, will want to carry on for as long as possible.

The task for allies is to persuade President Trump to go in hard on Putin so he is forced to the table in a position of discomfort.

We saw some of this from President Trump this week as he warned Putin of punishing sanctions on Russia should Moscow refuse to negotiate.

But there will be demands for Ukraine too, not least an expectation from President Trump that in return for US military support, President Zelenskyy must send younger Ukrainian men to the battlefield and lower the conscription age from 25 to perhaps as young as 18.

This will be incredibly difficult for President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people who have already sacrificed so much in a war they did not ask for and didn’t want.

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Key moments from Trump’s inauguration

As part of any ceasefire deal, expect the UK to be involved in a European peacekeeping force.

Expect too for Trump to ramp up pressure on NATO countries to boost defence spending from 2% of GDP to 3% or more (Trump called for the defence spend baseline of NATO members to be 5% in recent weeks).

Needless to say, the US’s handling of the Ukraine war and our role in that will be critical to not just our foreign policy, but national conversation in the coming months.

When it comes to the Middle East, the situation is trickier still.

I’m told there is some concern with the Foreign Office that Israel could make the case to Trump that the depletion of Iran’s proxies – Hezbollah and Hamas – make this a moment to target Iran.

There is nervousness that Trump, who has long made his acute dislike of Iran clear (last time around he abandoned the Obama nuclear deal with Tehran), buys into that and escalates a wider conflict in the region.

Even the risk of the US green-lighting a direct attack from Israel on Iran will only serve to accelerate Tehran’s nuclear programme.

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Experts analyse Melania’s inauguration look

Where Starmer is hoping to make some progress is on trade.

President Trump, a big Brexit and Boris Johnson backer, talked up a US-UK trade deal in his first term, only for President Biden to put it on the backburner.

Now, the UK government is hoping there will be some sectoral deals in which our two countries can improve trading relations in return for the UK offering President Trump perhaps assurances around his security concerns regarding China (you might remember back in 2020, pressure from the US prompted the the government to U-turn on allowing Huawei to have a role in its new generation of 5G networks).

How this plays out, even as the Labour government looks to build trading ties with Beijing, will be something to watch.

One obvious question will be – can the UK benefit from renewed UK-China trade ties without annoying Trump?

The final big issue for the UK is tariffs, but for now it doesn’t look like Trump is taking aim at the UK.

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Trump threatens trade tariffs

Instead, he has this week announced he’s considering imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese-made imports as soon as 1 February.

Starmer needs it to stay that way, given his plan for “national renewal” hinges on economic growth – which is looking precarious even without the prospect of tariffs on exports to the US.

Analysts had warned that a blanket 10% tariff could cost British industry $3bn (£2.5bn) a year, with cars, aerospace, pharmaceuticals and machinery among the sectors to be hardest hit.

One area where the government is more quietly confident is on the matter of its pick for ambassador, Lord Mandelson.

While rumours have been flying around that the architect of New Labour and former EU trade commissioner might get vetoed by President Trump, sources in government expect him to be appointed, and believe his nous as a political operator, coupled with his expertise in trade negotiations, make him a good choice.

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Could Trump stop the new UK ambassador?

But the bigger question is whether he can become a Trump whisperer in replacing current ambassador, Karen Pierce, who is well-regarded and liked by the Trump team.

How to handle Trump will undoubtedly be a test for Starmer, not just in his direct dealing but in the ripple effects of the Trump White House on British politics and his own supporters.

What goes in his favour is that he deals in facts not emotions, so is unlikely to be ruffled with whatever Trump and his allies throw at him.

His bigger challenge will perhaps be keeping the rest of his party in line when he wants pragmatism rather than principle to rule the special relationship.

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Police officer punched in face as masked protesters with children march through Canary Wharf shopping centre

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Police officer punched in face as masked protesters with children march through Canary Wharf shopping centre

A group of masked protesters became “aggressive” towards police at Canary Wharf shopping centre after an anti-asylum demonstration, police say.

A group of people entered the shopping centre around 4.30pm and a “small number of masked protesters” then became aggressive towards members of the public and police, the Metropolitan Police said in a statement.

Police issued an order to “prevent people concealing their identity with masks” and a dispersal order was also put in place.

Video seen on social media showed young children among the protesters, with some of them wearing England flags.

Officers said: “We are aware there are young children in the protest area and while we deal with any criminality our officers are ensuring the safety of them is paramount.”

Police said four people were arrested on Sunday afternoon during the protests, including for common assault by a protester on a member of the public, possession of class A and B drugs, assault on police/public order offences and failure to disperse.

“One of our officers was punched in the face – luckily they did not suffer significant injury,” a spokesperson said.

Commander Adam Slonecki, in charge of policing London this weekend, said: “We had plenty of officers on the ground who moved in swiftly to deal with the criminality that occurred inside and outside the shopping centre. We will not tolerate this kind of behaviour.

“Today’s protest saw many community members attend, including women and children, and we worked to ensure the safety of those there to peacefully represent their views. Those who arrive at protests masked and intent on causing trouble will continue to be dealt with robustly at future protests.”

People protest outside the Britannia International Hotel in Canary Wharf. Pic: PA
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People protest outside the Britannia International Hotel in Canary Wharf. Pic: PA

Counter-protesters also assembled outside the Britannia International Hotel. Pic: PA
Image:
Counter-protesters also assembled outside the Britannia International Hotel. Pic: PA

Read more:
PM promises small boat migrants will be ‘detained and sent back’
Reform deputy leader disagrees with archbishop

Protesters from both sides of the divide over the UK’s immigration policies gathered outside the Britannia Hotel in Canary Wharf on Sunday afternoon.

Around a dozen anti-immigration protesters were joined by about 100 counter-protesters holding banners saying “stand up to racism” and “stop the far right” on the other side of the road.

Demonstrators then left the hotel location – kept apart by police.

Sunday’s events in east London follow an incident in West Drayton, west London, on Saturday when a group of masked men were among those who attempted to enter a hotel housing asylum seekers.

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Reform deputy attacks govt for ‘protecting rights’ of illegal migrants – and fires back at Archbishop of York

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Reform deputy attacks govt for 'protecting rights' of illegal migrants - and fires back at Archbishop of York

Reform UK has hit back at both the Archbishop of York and the government following criticism of its immigration policies.

Leader Nigel Farage announced the party’s flagship immigration plan during a flashy news conference held at an aircraft hangar in Oxford on Tuesday.

The party pledged to deport anybody who comes to the UK illegally, regardless of whether they might come to harm, and said it would pay countries with questionable human rights records – such as Afghanistan – to take people back.

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It also said it would leave numerous international agreements, and revoke the Human Rights Act, in order to do this.

The policy was criticised by the Conservatives, who said Mr Farage was “copying our homework”, while parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens condemned it.

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Archbishop Stephen Cottrell and Richard Tice MP. Pics: PA
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Archbishop Stephen Cottrell and Richard Tice MP. Pics: PA

But the plan came under fire from an altogether different angle on Saturday, when the Archbishop of York accused it of being an “isolationist, short-term kneejerk” approach, with no “long-term solutions”.

Stephen Cottrell, who is the acting head of the Church of England, told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that he had “every sympathy” with those who find the issue of immigration tricky. But he said Reform UK’s plan does “nothing to address the issue of what brings people to this country”, and would in fact, make “the problem worse”.

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In full: Richard Tice on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips

Speaking on the same programme, Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, responded to the archbishop’s criticisms, saying that “all of it is wrong”.

The MP for Boston and Skegness said he was a Christian who “enjoys” the church – but that the “role of the archbishop is not actually to interfere with international migration policies”.

Mr Tice then turned his fire on the government, accusing ministers of being “more interested in protecting the rights of people who’ve come here illegally… than looking after the rights of British citizens”.

He accused ministers of having “abandoned” their duty of “looking after the interests of British citizens”.

Mr Tice reaffirmed his party’s policy that the UK should leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), calling it a “70-year-old, out-of-date, unfit-for-purpose agreement”.

The Reform UK deputy leader also:

• Defended plans to pay the Taliban to take migrants back, comparing it to doing business deals with “people you don’t like”

• Said the Royal Navy should be deployed in the English Channel as a “deterrent”, but added: “We’re not saying sink the boats”

• Urged the government to call an early general election

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Farage ‘wants to provoke anger’

Meanwhile, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, told Sky News that Reform “want to provoke anger, but they don’t actually want to solve the problems that we face in front of us”.

She told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the UK had a “proud tradition [of] supporting those facing persecution”.

But she added: “We will make sure that people who have no right to be in this country are removed from this country. That’s right. It’s what people expect. It’s what this government will deliver.”

Ms Phillipson also insisted there “needs to be reform of the ECHR” and said the home secretary is “looking at the article eight provisions”, which cover the right to a private and family life, to see “whether they need updating and reforming for the modern age”.

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However, she refused to say what the government would do if it is found that the ECHR is unreformable. Instead, she defended Labour’s position of staying in the governance of the convention, saying that honouring the “rule of law” is important.

She added: “Our standing in the world matters if we want to strike trade deals with countries. We need to be a country that’s taken seriously. We need to be a country that honours our obligations and honours the rule of law.”

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Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips

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Asylum seekers to remain at Bell Hotel

Ms Phillipson was also drawn on the recent court ruling in favour of the Home Office, which overturned an injunction banning The Bell Hotel in Epping from housing asylum seekers.

Challenged on whether the government is prioritising the rights of asylum seekers over British citizens, she said it “is about a balance of rights”.

The cabinet minister also repeated the government’s plans to end the use of hotels to house asylum seekers by 2029.

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‘We should have overruled law’

Shadow Cabinet Office minister Alex Burghart said the Conservatives would be willing to leave the ECHR – if this route is recommended to them.

The Tories have asked a senior judge to look into the “legal intricacies” of leaving the convention, which he said is “not straightforward”. He said when the party receives that report, it will then make a decision.

Challenged on whether the Tories will leave if that is what the report recommends, he added: “If that’s what’s necessary, we will do it.”

Mr Burghart also said he believed the previous Conservative government’s biggest mistake was that “we did not go far enough on overruling human rights legislation”, which prevented it from “taking the tough action that was absolutely necessary”.

But he added the Conservatives have now “put forward very clear legislation that would solve this problem” – though he concluded Labour “isn’t going to do it” so the problem “is going to get worse”.

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Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell tells Nigel Farage ‘kneejerk’ migrant deportation plan won’t solve problem

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Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell tells Nigel Farage 'kneejerk' migrant deportation plan won't solve problem

The Archbishop of York has told Sky News the UK should resist Reform’s “kneejerk” plan for the mass deportation of migrants, telling Nigel Farage he is not offering any “long-term solution”.

Stephen Cottrell said in an interview with Trevor Phillips he has “every sympathy” with people who are concerned about asylum seekers coming to the country illegally.

But he criticised the plan announced by Reform on Tuesday to deport 600,000 people, which would be enabled by striking deals with the Taliban and Iran, saying it will not “solve the problem”.

Mr Cottrell is currently acting head of the Church of England while a new Archbishop of Canterbury is chosen.

Pic: Jacob King/PA Wire
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Pic: Jacob King/PA Wire

The Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell in 2020.
File pic: PA
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The Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell in 2020.
File pic: PA

Phillips asked him: “What’s your response to the people who are saying the policy should be ‘you land here, unlawfully, you get locked up and you get deported straight away. No ifs, no buts’?”

Mr Cottrell said he would tell them “you haven’t solved the problem”, adding: “You’ve just put it somewhere else and you’ve done nothing to address the issue of what brings people to this country.

More on Migrant Crisis

“And so if you think that’s the answer, you will discover in due course that all you have done is made the problem worse.

“Don’t misunderstand me, I have every sympathy with those who find this difficult, every sympathy – as I do with those living in poverty.

“But… we should actively resist the kind of isolationist, short term kneejerk ‘send them home’.”

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What do public make of Reform’s plans?

Nigel Farage at the launch of Reform UK's plan to deport asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage at the launch of Reform UK’s plan to deport asylum seekers. Pic: PA

Asked if that was his message to the Reform leader, he said: “Well, it is. I mean, Mr Farage is saying the things he’s saying, but he is not offering any long-term solution to the big issues which are convulsing our world, which lead to this. And, I see no other way.”

You can watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News from 8.30am

Mr Farage, the MP for Clacton, was asked at a news conference this week what he would say if Christian leaders opposed his plan.

“Whoever the Christian leaders are at any given point in time, I think over the last decades, quite a few of them have been rather out of touch, perhaps with their own flock,” he said.

“We believe that what we’re offering is right and proper, and we believe for a political party that was founded around the slogan of family, community, country that we are doing right by all of those things, with these plans we put forward today.”

Sky News has approached Mr Farage for comment.

Farage won’t be greeting this as good news of the gospel – nor will govt ministers

When Tony Blair’s spin doctor Alastair Campbell told journalists that “We don’t do God”, many took it as a statement of ideology.

In fact it was the caution of a canny operator who knows that the most dangerous opponent in politics is a religious leader licensed to challenge your very morality.

Stephen Cottrell, the Archbishop of York, currently the effective head of the worldwide Anglican communion, could not have been clearer in his denunciation of what he calls the Reform party’s “isolationist, short term, kneejerk ‘send them home'” approach to asylum and immigration.

I sense that having ruled himself out of the race for next Archbishop of Canterbury, Reverend Cottrell feels free to preach a liberal doctrine.

Unusually, in our interview he pinpoints a political leader as, in effect, failing to demonstrate Christian charity.

Nigel Farage, who describes himself as a practising Christian, won’t be greeting this as the good news of the gospel.

But government ministers will also be feeling nervous.

Battered for allowing record numbers of cross- Channel migrants, and facing legal battles on asylum hotels that may go all the way to the Supreme Court, Labour has tried to head off the Reform challenge with tougher language on border control.

The last thing the prime minister needs right now is to make an enemy of the Almighty – or at least of his representatives on Earth.

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