Microsoft’s underperformance has investors looking to cloud for growth
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 22nd, 2025.
Gerry Miller | CNBC
Microsoft is in the middle of the artificial intelligence boom, but it’s been a while since investors have seen the rewards.
The software giant’s stock price is up less than 8% in the past year. That’s by far the weakest gain among the eight U.S. tech megacap companies. Apple has the next slimmest increase at 19%, followed by Alphabet at 26%. All the others are up at least 48%, and Tesla is the top performer in the group, up 117%.
Microsoft is also badly trailing the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has gained 25% in the past year.
That’s the backdrop heading into Microsoft’s quarterly earnings report Wednesday. The company is kicking off tech earnings season, along with Meta and Tesla. Apple follows on Thursday, and Alphabet and Amazon report next week.
The biggest question for Microsoft shareholders surrounds the company’s Azure cloud-computing business and whether it will show accelerating growth.
In October, Microsoft told investors that demand for Azure services outstripped supply because of a delay from a third-party provider. Finance chief Amy Hood said she still foresees an increase in Azure’s growth rate in the first half of 2025, but for the December quarter, she called for 31% to 32% growth at constant currency, which would be down from 34% in the prior period. Microsoft’s stock slipped 6% the next day.
Since the last quarter of 2023, Azure growth has increased by 2 percentage points. Meanwhile, top rivals Amazon and Alphabet have seen cloud growth over that stretch accelerate by 7 points and 13 points, respectively. It’s a matter of particular importance to investors, because Microsoft now has tens of billions of dollars in quarterly capital expenditures to meet cloud and AI needs of customers.
A Microsoft spokesperson didn’t provide a comment.
Microsoft operates in many other markets. But investors gravitate to cloud first, because it’s a sizable category that’s still rapidly expanding as companies continue to move away from owning and operating their own data centers and as they add heftier workloads.
Overall, Microsoft is expected to report revenue growth of 11% from a year earlier to $68.8 billion, according to LSEG. That would mark the slowest year-over-year growth for any quarter since mid-2023. Analysts expect earnings per share to increase to $3.11 from $2.93 a year ago.
Investors were more bullish on Microsoft in 2023, sending the stock up more than 50%, its best year since 2009. The driving force was Microsoft’s intimate relationship with ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which sparked the generative AI boom and led to a historic increase in investments.
Microsoft is OpenAI’s leading backer, having poured nearly $14 billion into the AI startup. Through the partnership, Microsoft gets a lot of cloud business but also spends heavily on building out infrastructure.
The relationship changed in an important way last week, when Microsoft said OpenAI will no longer use Azure on an exclusive basis, except when it comes to handling incoming queries from developers. Going forward, OpenAI will have to check with Microsoft when it seeks more computing capacity, and Microsoft will be able to accept or turn away the request.
The announcement came at the same time as President Donald Trump’s introduction of Stargate, an AI infrastructure initiative involving SoftBank, OpenAI and Oracle.
In its own blog post, OpenAI named Microsoft as a technology partner but not a member of the group that will build and operate Stargate, which has the potential to draw up to $500 billion in investment. Microsoft has committed to $80 billion in AI-related capital expenditures in the year that ends June 30. Much of that is being directed toward Nvidia’s graphics processing units, or GPUs.
Analysts at Cowen wrote in a report that last week’s developments could help Microsoft reaccelerate the Azure growth rate into the mid-30s. They said Microsoft has been “funding GPU capex investments for OpenAI model training but not collecting revenue,” and that by pushing some of that training elsewhere, the company can “show improved capex efficiencies and stronger returns on capital spend” while keeping its access to OpenAI.
Kevin Walkush, a portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, said he expects the AI investment will pay off in the long run.
“If AI doesn’t show up, there’s still a long runway for cloud,” said Walkush, whose firm held about $913 million in Microsoft shares at the end of September. “But I think the chance of AI showing up is really high, so that’s the bet I’m willing to let them make to take advantage of this opportunity.”
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang introduces new products as he delivers the keynote address at the GTC AI Conference in San Jose, California, on March 18, 2025.
Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images
At the end of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s unscripted two-hour keynote on Tuesday, his message was clear: Get the fastest chips that the company makes.
Speaking at Nvidia’s GTC conference, Huang said that questions clients have about the cost and return on investment the company’s graphics processors, or GPUs, will go away with faster chips that can be digitally sliced and used to serve artificial intelligence to millions of people at the same time.
“Over the next 10 years, because we could see improving performance so dramatically, speed is the best cost-reduction system,” Huang said in a meeting with journalists shortly after his GTC keynote.
The company dedicated 10 minutes during Huang’s speech to explain the economics of faster chips for cloud providers, complete with Huang doing envelope math out loud on each chip’s cost-per-token, a measure of how much it costs to create one unit of AI output.
Huang told reporters that he presented the math because that’s what’s on the mind of hyperscale cloud and AI companies.
The company’s Blackwell Ultra systems, coming out this year, could provide data centers 50 times more revenue than its Hopper systems because it’s so much faster at serving AI to multiple users, Nvidia says.
Investors worry about whether the four major cloud providers — Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle — could slow down their torrid pace of capital expenditures centered around pricey AI chips. Nvidia doesn’t reveal prices for its AI chips, but analysts say Blackwell can cost $40,000 per GPU.
Already, the four largest cloud providers have bought 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs, under Nvidia’s new convention that counts each Blackwell as 2 GPUs. That’s up from 1.3 million Hopper GPUs, Blackwell’s predecessor, Nvidia said Tuesday.
The company decided to announce its roadmap for 2027’s Rubin Next and 2028’s Feynman AI chips, Huang said, because cloud customers are already planning expensive data centers and want to know the broad strokes of Nvidia’s plans.
“We know right now, as we speak, in a couple of years, several hundred billion dollars of AI infrastructure” will be built, Huang said. “You’ve got the budget approved. You got the power approved. You got the land.”
Huang dismissed the notion that custom chips from cloud providers could challenge Nvidia’s GPUs, arguing they’re not flexible enough for fast-moving AI algorithms. He also expressed doubt that many of the recently announced custom AI chips, known within the industry as ASICs, would make it to market.
“A lot of ASICs get canceled,” Huang said. “The ASIC still has to be better than the best.”
Huang said his is focus on making sure those big projects use the latest and greatest Nvidia systems.
“So the question is, what do you want for several $100 billion?” Huang said.
Microsoft’s Amy Coleman (L) and Kathleen Hogan (R).
Source: Microsoft
Microsoft said Wednesday that company veteran Amy Coleman will become its new executive vice president and chief people officer, succeeding Kathleen Hogan, who has held the position for the past decade.
Hogan will remain an executive vice president but move to a newly established Office of Strategy and Transformation, which is an expansion of the office of the CEO. She will join Microsoft’s group of top executives, reporting directly to CEO Satya Nadella.
Coleman is stepping into a major role, given that Microsoft is among the largest employers in the U.S., with 228,000 total employees as of June 2024. She has worked at the company for more than 25 years over two stints, having first joined as a compensation manager in 1996.
Hogan will remain on the senior leadership team.
“Amy has led HR for our corporate functions across the company for the past six years, following various HR roles partnering across engineering, sales, marketing, and business development spanning 25 years,” Nadella wrote in a memo to employees.
“In that time, she has been a trusted advisor to both Kathleen and to me as she orchestrated many cross-company workstreams as we evolved our culture, improved our employee engagement model, established our employee relations team, and drove enterprise crisis response for our people,” he wrote.
Hogan arrived at Microsoft in 2003 after being a development manager at Oracle and a partner at McKinsey. Under Hogan, some of Microsoft’s human resources practices evolved. She has emphasized the importance of employees having a growth mindset instead of a fixed mindset, drawing on concepts from psychologist Carol Dweck.
“We came up with some big symbolic changes to show that we really were serious about driving culture change, from changing the performance-review system to changing our all-hands company meeting, to our monthly Q&A with the employees,” Hogan said in a 2019 interview with Business Insider.
Hogan pushed for managers to evaluate the inclusivity of employees and oversaw changes in the handling of internal sexual harassment cases.
Coleman had been Microsoft’s corporate vice president for human resources and corporate functions for the past four years. In that role, she was responsible for 200 HR workers and led the development of Microsoft’s hybrid work approach, as well as the HR aspect of the company’s Covid response, according to her LinkedIn profile.
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