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Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 22nd, 2025.

Gerry Miller | CNBC

Microsoft is in the middle of the artificial intelligence boom, but it’s been a while since investors have seen the rewards.

The software giant’s stock price is up less than 8% in the past year. That’s by far the weakest gain among the eight U.S. tech megacap companies. Apple has the next slimmest increase at 19%, followed by Alphabet at 26%. All the others are up at least 48%, and Tesla is the top performer in the group, up 117%.

Microsoft is also badly trailing the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has gained 25% in the past year.

That’s the backdrop heading into Microsoft’s quarterly earnings report Wednesday. The company is kicking off tech earnings season, along with Meta and Tesla. Apple follows on Thursday, and Alphabet and Amazon report next week.

The biggest question for Microsoft shareholders surrounds the company’s Azure cloud-computing business and whether it will show accelerating growth.

In October, Microsoft told investors that demand for Azure services outstripped supply because of a delay from a third-party provider. Finance chief Amy Hood said she still foresees an increase in Azure’s growth rate in the first half of 2025, but for the December quarter, she called for 31% to 32% growth at constant currency, which would be down from 34% in the prior period. Microsoft’s stock slipped 6% the next day.

Since the last quarter of 2023, Azure growth has increased by 2 percentage points. Meanwhile, top rivals Amazon and Alphabet have seen cloud growth over that stretch accelerate by 7 points and 13 points, respectively. It’s a matter of particular importance to investors, because Microsoft now has tens of billions of dollars in quarterly capital expenditures to meet cloud and AI needs of customers.

A Microsoft spokesperson didn’t provide a comment.

Microsoft operates in many other markets. But investors gravitate to cloud first, because it’s a sizable category that’s still rapidly expanding as companies continue to move away from owning and operating their own data centers and as they add heftier workloads.

Overall, Microsoft is expected to report revenue growth of 11% from a year earlier to $68.8 billion, according to LSEG. That would mark the slowest year-over-year growth for any quarter since mid-2023. Analysts expect earnings per share to increase to $3.11 from $2.93 a year ago.

Benchmark's Bill Gurley: Microsoft-OpenAI deal sounds like one of the most complex of all time

Investors were more bullish on Microsoft in 2023, sending the stock up more than 50%, its best year since 2009. The driving force was Microsoft’s intimate relationship with ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which sparked the generative AI boom and led to a historic increase in investments.

Microsoft is OpenAI’s leading backer, having poured nearly $14 billion into the AI startup. Through the partnership, Microsoft gets a lot of cloud business but also spends heavily on building out infrastructure.

The relationship changed in an important way last week, when Microsoft said OpenAI will no longer use Azure on an exclusive basis, except when it comes to handling incoming queries from developers. Going forward, OpenAI will have to check with Microsoft when it seeks more computing capacity, and Microsoft will be able to accept or turn away the request.

The announcement came at the same time as President Donald Trump’s introduction of Stargate, an AI infrastructure initiative involving SoftBank, OpenAI and Oracle.

In its own blog post, OpenAI named Microsoft as a technology partner but not a member of the group that will build and operate Stargate, which has the potential to draw up to $500 billion in investment. Microsoft has committed to $80 billion in AI-related capital expenditures in the year that ends June 30. Much of that is being directed toward Nvidia’s graphics processing units, or GPUs.

Analysts at Cowen wrote in a report that last week’s developments could help Microsoft reaccelerate the Azure growth rate into the mid-30s. They said Microsoft has been “funding GPU capex investments for OpenAI model training but not collecting revenue,” and that by pushing some of that training elsewhere, the company can “show improved capex efficiencies and stronger returns on capital spend” while keeping its access to OpenAI.

Kevin Walkush, a portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, said he expects the AI investment will pay off in the long run.

“If AI doesn’t show up, there’s still a long runway for cloud,” said Walkush, whose firm held about $913 million in Microsoft shares at the end of September. “But I think the chance of AI showing up is really high, so that’s the bet I’m willing to let them make to take advantage of this opportunity.”

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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella on $500B Stargate project: Our partnership with OpenAI continues

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CoreWeave is the first cloud provider to deploy Nvidia’s latest AI chips

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CoreWeave is the first cloud provider to deploy Nvidia's latest AI chips

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 2, 2024.

Ann Wang | Reuters

Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra chips, the company’s next-generation graphics processor for artificial intelligence, have been commercially deployed at CoreWeave, the companies announced on Thursday.

CoreWeave has received shipments of Dell-built shipments based around Nvidia’s GB300 NVL72 AI systems, Dell said on Thursday. It’s the first cloud provider to install systems based around Blackwell Ultra.

The Blackwell Ultra is Nvidia’s latest chip, expected to ship in volume during the rest of the year. The systems that CoreWeave is installing are liquid-cooled and include 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs and 36 Nvidia Grace CPUs. The systems are assembled and tested in the U.S., Dell said.

CoreWeave shares rose 6% during trading on Thursday, Dell shares were up about 2% and Nvidia rose less than 2%.

The announcement is a milestone for Nvidia.

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AI developers still clamor for the latest Nvidia chips, which have improvements that make them better for training and deploying models.

Nvidia said Blackwell Ultra can produce 50 times more AI content than its predecessor, Blackwell.

Investors closely watch how Nvidia manages the transition when it announces new AI chips to see if there are production issues or delays. Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said in May that Blackwell Ultra shipments would start in the current quarter.

It’s also a win for CoreWeave, a cloud provider that rents access to Nvidia GPUs to other clouds and AI developers. Although CoreWeave is smaller than the cloud services operated by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, its ability to offer Nvidia’s latest chips first give it a way to differentiate itself.

CoreWeave historically has a close relationship with Nvidia, which owns a stake in the cloud provider. CoreWeave went public earlier this year, and the stock price has quadrupled since its IPO.

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IPO market gets boost from Circle’s 500% surge, sparking optimism that drought may be ending

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IPO market gets boost from Circle's 500% surge, sparking optimism that drought may be ending

Jeremy Allaire, CEO and co-founder of Circle Internet Group, the issuer of one of the world’s biggest stablecoins, and Circle Internet Group co-founder Sean Neville react as they ring the opening bell, on the day of the company’s IPO, in New York City, U.S., June 5, 2025.

NYSE

For over three years, venture capital firms have been waiting for this moment.

Tech IPOs came to a virtual standstill in early 2022 due to soaring inflation and rising interest rates, while big acquisitions were mostly off the table as increased regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe turned away potential buyers.

Though it’s too soon to say those days are entirely in the past, the first half of 2025 showed signs of momentum, with June in particular producing much-needed returns for Silicon Valley’s startup financiers. In all, there were five tech IPOs last month, accelerating from a monthly average of two since January, according to data from CB Insights.

Highlighting that group was crypto company Circle, which more than doubled in its New York Stock Exchange debut on June 5, and is now up sixfold from its IPO price for a market cap of $42 billion. The stock got a big boost in mid-June after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which would establish a federal framework for U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins.

Venture firms General Catalyst, Breyer Capital and Accel now own a combined $8 billion worth of Circle stock even after selling a fraction of their holdings in the offering. Silicon Valley stalwarts Greylock, Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia Capital are set to soon profit from Figma’s IPO, after the design software vendor filed its public prospectus on Tuesday. Since its $20 billion acquisition agreement with Adobe was scrapped in late 2023, Figma has been one of the most hotly anticipated IPOs in startup land.

It’s “refreshing and something that we’ve been waiting for for a long time,” said Eric Hippeau, managing partner at early-stage venture firm Lerer Hippeau, regarding the exit environment. “I’m not sure that we are confident that this can be a sustained trend yet, but it’s been very encouraging.”

Another positive sign for the industry the past couple months was the performance of artificial infrastructure provider CoreWeave, which went public in late March. The stock was relatively stagnant for its first month on the market but shot up 170% in May and another 47% in June.

The IPO market is coming back, but it won't be linear, says Lazard CEO Peter Orszag

For venture firms, long considered the lifeblood of risky tech startups, IPOs are essential in order to generate profits for the university endowments, foundations and pension funds that allocate a portion of their capital to the asset class. Without handsome returns, there’s little incentive for limited partners to put money into future funds.

After a record year in 2021, which saw 155 U.S. venture-backed IPOs raise $60.4 billion, according to data from University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter, every year since has been relatively dismal. There were 13 such offerings in 2022, followed by 18 in 2023 and 30 last year, collectively raising $13.3 billion, Ritter’s data shows.

The slowdown followed the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 2022, meant to slow crippling inflation. As the lower-growth environment extended into years two and three, venture firms faced increasing pressure to return cash to investors.

‘Backlog of liquidity’

In its 2024 yearbook, the National Venture Capital Association said that even with a 34% increase in U.S. VC exit value last year to $98 billion, that number is 87% below the 2021 peak and less than half the average for the four years from 2017 through 2020. It’s a troubling dynamic for the 58,000 venture-backed companies that have raised a total of $947 billion from investors, according to the annual report, which is produced by the NVCA and PitchBook.

“This backlog of liquidity drought risks creating a ‘zombie company’ cohort — businesses generating operational cash flow but lacking credible exit prospects,” the report said.

Other than Circle, the latest crop of IPOs mostly consists of smaller and lesser-known brands. Health-tech companies Hinge Health and Omada Health are valued at about $3.5 billion and $1 billion, respectively. Etoro, an online trading platform, has a market cap of just over $5 billion. Online banking provider Chime Financial has a higher profile due largely to a years-long marketing blitz and is valued at close to $11.5 billion.

Meanwhile, the highest valued private companies like SpaceX, Stripe and Databricks remain on the sidelines, and AI highfliers OpenAI and Anthropic continue to raise massive amounts of cash with no intention of going public anytime soon.

Still, venture capitalists told CNBC that there are plenty of companies with the financial metrics to be public, and that more of them are readying for the process.

“The IPO market is starting to open and the VC world is cautiously optimistic,” said Rick Heitzmann, a partner at venture firm FirstMark in New York. “We are preparing companies for the next wave of public offerings.”

There are other ways to make money in the meantime. Secondary sales, a process that involves selling private shares to new investors, are on the rise, allowing early employees and investors to get some liquidity.

And then there’s what Mark Zuckerberg is doing, as he tries to position his company at the center of AI innovation and development.

Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc., during the Meta Connect event on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Last month, Meta announced a $14 billion bet on Scale AI, taking a 49% stake in the AI startup in exchange for poaching founder Alexandr Wang and a small group of his top engineers. The deal effectively bought out half of the stock owned by investors, leaving them with the opportunity to make money on the rest of their holdings, should a future acquisition or IPO take place.

The deal is a big win for Accel, which led Scale AI’s Series A round in 2017, and is poised to earn more than $2.5 billion in the transaction. Index Ventures led the Series B in 2018, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led the Series C the following year at a valuation of over $1 billion.

Investors now hope the Federal Reserve will move toward a rate-cutting campaign, though the central bank hasn’t committed to one. There’s also ongoing optimism that regulators will make going public less burdensome. Last week, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that U.S. stock exchanges and the SEC have discussed loosening regulations to make IPOs more enticing.

Mike Bellin, who heads consulting firm PwC’s U.S. IPO practice, said he anticipates a diversity of IPOs across sectors in the second half of the year. According to data from PwC, pharma and fintech were among the most active sectors for deals through the end of May.

While the recent trend in IPO activity is an encouraging sign for investors, potential roadblocks remain.

Tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty delayed IPO plans from companies including Klarna and StubHub in April. Neither has provided an update on when they plan to debut.

FirstMark’s Heitzmann said the path forward is “not at all clear,” adding that he wants to see a strong quarter of economic stability and growth before confidently saying that the market is wide open.

Additionally, other than CoreWeave and Circle, recent tech IPOs haven’t had big pops. Hinge Health, Chime and eToro have seen relatively modest gains from their offer price, while Omada Health is down.

But virtually any activity beats what VCs were experiencing the last few years. Overall, Hippeau said recent IPO trends are generally encouraging.

“There’s starting to be kind of light at the end of the tunnel,” Hippeau said.

WATCH: Uptick in VC-backed startup deals

Uptick in VC-backed startup deals

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Tripadvisor stock surges 17% as Starboard Value builds sizable stake in online travel company

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Tripadvisor stock surges 17% as Starboard Value builds sizable stake in online travel company

The Tripadvisor logo is displayed on a tablet.

Mateusz Slodkowski | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Tripadvisor stock jumped 17% Thursday after Starboard Value revealed a more than 9% stake in the online travel company, according to a securities filing.

The position was valued at about $160 million as of Wednesday’s close.

Tripadvisor shares have been flat since the start of the year after plummeting more than 30% in 2024. Last year, the travel review and booking company said it created a special committee to explore potential options.

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Starboard Value has gained a reputation for pushing for changes such as new CEOs and cost cuts by acquiring significant shares in companies.

Most recently, the firm settled a proxy fight with Autodesk, where it gained two board seats. It has previously pushed for changes at Tinder parent Match Group, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and Salesforce.

The Wall Street Journal was the first to report the news late Wednesday.

Tripadvisor did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. Starboard declined to comment on the news.

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