Big economy speech will take no immediate pressure off Rachel Reeves

Published

5 months ago

January 29, 2025

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Don’t, whatever you do, call it a “relaunch”.

When the chancellor stands up and delivers her much-anticipated speech on Wednesday – with all sorts of exciting schemes for new infrastructure and growth-friendly reforms – she will cast it as part of the new government’s long-standing economic strategy.

Having begun the job of repairing the public finances in last October’s budget, this is, Rachel Reeves will say, simply the next step.

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Regardless of whether you believe that this is all business-as-usual, it’s hard to escape the fact that the backdrop to the chancellor’s growth speech is, to say the least, challenging.

The economy has flatlined at best (possibly even shrunk) since Labour took power. Business and consumer confidence have dipped. Not all of this is down to the miserable messaging emanating from Downing Street since July, but some of it is.

Still, whether or not this constitutes a change, most businesses would welcome her enthusiasm for business-friendly reforms. And most would agree that making it easier to build infrastructure (which is a large part of her pitch) will help improve growth.

But it’s not everything. What about the fact that the UK has the highest energy costs in the developed world? What about the fact that these costs are likely to be pushed higher by net zero policies (even if they eventually come down)? What about the fact that tax levels are about to hit the highest level in history, or that government debt levels are now rising even faster than previously expected.

None of that is especially growth-friendly.

The greatest challenge facing the chancellor, however, is the fact that very little of what she’s talking about in her speech is actually new. Most of these schemes, from the Oxford-Cambridge Arc (or whatever they’re calling it) to the multiple new runways planned around London, are very, very old. They’ve been blueprints for years if not decades. What’s been missing is the political will and determination to turn them into reality.

The new government may fare better at delivery. But it won’t be easy. And none of these projects will deliver growth immediately. Not until some time after the end of the parliament will they properly bear fruit.

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

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9 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

Rachel Reeves has hinted that taxes are likely to be raised this autumn after a major U-turn on the government’s controversial welfare bill.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill passed through the House of Commons on Tuesday after multiple concessions and threats of a major rebellion.

MPs ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to universal credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.

Initially aimed at saving £5.5bn, it now leaves the government with an estimated £5.5bn black hole – close to breaching Ms Reeves’s fiscal rules set out last year.

In an interview with The Guardian, the chancellor did not rule out tax rises later in the year, saying there were “costs” to watering down the welfare bill.

“I’m not going to [rule out tax rises], because it would be irresponsible for a chancellor to do that,” Ms Reeves told the outlet.

“We took the decisions last year to draw a line under unfunded commitments and economic mismanagement.

“So we’ll never have to do something like that again. But there are costs to what happened.”

Meanwhile, The Times reported that, ahead of the Commons vote on the welfare bill, Ms Reeves told cabinet ministers the decision to offer concessions would mean taxes would have to be raised.

The outlet reported that the chancellor said the tax rises would be smaller than those announced in the 2024 budget, but that she is expected to have to raise tens of billions more.

It comes after Ms Reeves said she was “totally” up to continuing as chancellor after appearing tearful at Prime Minister’s Questions.

Criticising Sir Keir for the U-turns on benefit reform during PMQs, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the chancellor looked “absolutely miserable”, and questioned whether she would remain in post until the next election.

Sir Keir did not explicitly say that she would, and Ms Badenoch interjected to say: “How awful for the chancellor that he couldn’t confirm that she would stay in place.”

In her first comments after the incident, Ms Reeves said she was having a “tough day” before adding: “People saw I was upset, but that was yesterday.

“Today’s a new day and I’m just cracking on with the job.”

Sir Keir also told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby on Thursday that he “didn’t appreciate” that Ms Reeves was crying in the Commons.

“In PMQs, it is bang, bang, bang,” he said. “That’s what it was yesterday.

“And therefore, I was probably the last to appreciate anything else going on in the chamber, and that’s just a straightforward human explanation, common sense explanation.”