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Don’t, whatever you do, call it a “relaunch”.

When the chancellor stands up and delivers her much-anticipated speech on Wednesday – with all sorts of exciting schemes for new infrastructure and growth-friendly reforms – she will cast it as part of the new government’s long-standing economic strategy.

Having begun the job of repairing the public finances in last October’s budget, this is, Rachel Reeves will say, simply the next step.

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Regardless of whether you believe that this is all business-as-usual, it’s hard to escape the fact that the backdrop to the chancellor’s growth speech is, to say the least, challenging.

The economy has flatlined at best (possibly even shrunk) since Labour took power. Business and consumer confidence have dipped. Not all of this is down to the miserable messaging emanating from Downing Street since July, but some of it is.

Still, whether or not this constitutes a change, most businesses would welcome her enthusiasm for business-friendly reforms. And most would agree that making it easier to build infrastructure (which is a large part of her pitch) will help improve growth.

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Reeves risks economic ‘doom loop’

But it’s not everything. What about the fact that the UK has the highest energy costs in the developed world? What about the fact that these costs are likely to be pushed higher by net zero policies (even if they eventually come down)? What about the fact that tax levels are about to hit the highest level in history, or that government debt levels are now rising even faster than previously expected.

None of that is especially growth-friendly.

The greatest challenge facing the chancellor, however, is the fact that very little of what she’s talking about in her speech is actually new. Most of these schemes, from the Oxford-Cambridge Arc (or whatever they’re calling it) to the multiple new runways planned around London, are very, very old. They’ve been blueprints for years if not decades. What’s been missing is the political will and determination to turn them into reality.

The new government may fare better at delivery. But it won’t be easy. And none of these projects will deliver growth immediately. Not until some time after the end of the parliament will they properly bear fruit.

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Trump announces yet more tariffs and praises ‘significant step’ from Apple

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Trump announces yet more tariffs and praises 'significant step' from Apple

Donald Trump has announced 100% tariffs on computer chips and semiconductors made outside the US.

The move threatens to increase the cost of electronics made outside the US, which covers everything from TVs and video game consoles to kitchen appliances and cars.

The announcement came as Apple chief executive Tim Cook said his company would invest an extra $100bn (£74.9bn) in US manufacturing.

Soon, all smartwatch and iPhone glass around the world will be made in Kentucky, according to Mr Cook, speaking from the Oval Office.

“This is a significant step toward the ultimate goal of ensuring that iPhones sold in the United States of America are also made in America,” said Mr Trump.

“Today’s announcement is one of the largest commitments in what has become among the greatest investment booms in our nation’s history.”

Mr Cook also presented the president with a one-of-a-kind trophy made by Apple in the US.

Trump seen through the trophy given to him by Tim Cook. Pic: AP
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Trump seen through the trophy given to him by Tim Cook. Pic: AP

Trump’s tariffs hit India hard

Mr Trump has previously criticised Mr Cook and Apple after the company attempted to avoid his tariffs by shifting iPhone production from China to India.

The president said he had a “little problem” with Apple and said he’d told Mr Cook: “I don’t want you building in India.”

India itself felt Mr Trump’s wrath on Wednesday, as he issued an executive order hitting the country with an additional 25% tariff for its continued purchasing of Russian oil.

Indian imports into the US will face a 50% tariff from 27 August as a result of the move, as the president seeks to increase the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Mr Trump told reporters at the White House he “could” also hit China with more tariffs.

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Apple’s ‘olive branch’

Apple, meanwhile, plans to hire 20,000 people in the US to support its extra manufacturing in the country, which will total $600bn (around £449bn) worth of investment over four years.

The “vast majority” of those jobs will be focused on a new end-to-end US silicon production line, research and development, software development, and artificial intelligence, according to the company.

Apple’s investment in the US caused the company’s stock price to hike by nearly 6% in Wednesday’s midday trading.

The rise may reflect relief by investors that Mr Cook “is extending an olive branch” to Mr Trump, said Nancy Tengler, chief executive of money manager Laffer Tengler Investments, which owns Apple stock.

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Primark-owner ABF gets Hovis deal oven-ready

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Primark-owner ABF gets Hovis deal oven-ready

The London-listed parent of Primark was on Wednesday applying the finishing touches to a landmark transaction that will unite the Hovis and Kingsmill bread brands under common ownership.

Sky News understands that a deal for Associated British Foods (ABF) to acquire Hovis from private equity firm Endless is likely to be announced by the end of the week.

The timetable remains subject to delay, banking sources cautioned on Wednesday.

The deal, which will see ABF paying about £75m to buy 135 year-old Hovis, is likely to trigger a lengthy review by competition regulators given that it will bring together the second- and third-largest suppliers of packaged bread to Britain’s major supermarkets.

ABF owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, which has struggled in recent years amid persistent price inflation, changing consumer preferences and competition from larger rival Warburtons as well as new entrants to the market.

Confirmation of the tie-up will come three months after Sky News revealed that ABF and Endless – Hovis’s owner since 2020 – were in discussions.

Industry sources have estimated that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of annual cost savings from a merger.

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Allied Bakeries was founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF, while Hovis traces its history even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning ‘strength of man”.

The overall UK bakery market is estimated to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

Critical to the prospects of a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis taking place will be the view of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) at a time when economic regulators are under intense pressure from the government to support growth.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group the largest share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain higher because of the breadth of its product range.

Responding to Sky News’ report in May of the talks, ABF said: “Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we remain committed to increasing long-term shareholder value.”

Prior to its ownership by Endless, Hovis was owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites, as well as its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

ABF declined to comment, while neither Endless nor Hovis could be reached for comment.

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Chancellor warned ‘substantial tax rises’ needed – as she faces ‘impossible trilemma’

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Chancellor warned 'substantial tax rises' needed - as she faces 'impossible trilemma'

Rachel Reeves will need to find more than £40bn of tax rises or spending cuts in the autumn budget to meet her fiscal rules, a leading research institute has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the government would miss its rule, which stipulates that day to day spending should be covered by tax receipts, by £41.2bn in the fiscal year 2029-30.

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In its latest UK economic outlook, NIESR said: “This shortfall significantly increases the pressure on the chancellor to introduce substantial tax rises in the upcoming autumn budget if she hopes to remain compliant with her fiscal rules.”

The deteriorating fiscal picture was blamed on poor economic growth, higher than expected borrowing and a reversal in welfare cuts that could have saved the government £6.25bn.

Together they have created an “impossible trilemma”, NIESR said, with the chancellor simultaneously bound to her fiscal rules, spending commitments, and manifesto pledges that oppose tax hikes.

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The institute urged the government to build a larger fiscal buffer through moderate but sustained tax rises.

“This will help allay bond market fears about fiscal sustainability, which may in turn reduce borrowing costs,” it said.

“It will also help to reduce policy uncertainty, which can hit both business and consumer confidence.”

It said that money could be raised by reforms to council tax bands or, in a more radical approach, by replacing the whole council tax system with a land value tax.

To reduce spending pressures, NIESR called for a greater focus on reducing economic inactivity, which could bring down welfare spending.

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Growth to remain sluggish

The report was released against the backdrop of poor growth, with the chancellor struggling to ignite the economy after two months of declining GDP.

The institute is forecasting modest economic growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. That means Britain will rank mid-table among the G7 group of advanced economies.

‘Things are not looking good’

However, inflation is likely to remain persistent, with the consumer price index (CPI) likely to hit 3.5% in 2025 and around 3% by mid-2026. NIESR blamed sustained wage growth and higher government spending.

It said the Bank of England would cut interest rates twice this year and again at the beginning of next year, taking the rate from 4.25% to 3.5%.

Persistent inflation is also weighing on living standards: the poorest 10% of UK households saw their living standards fall by 1.3% in 2024-25 compared to the previous year, NIESR said. They are now 10% worse off than they were before the pandemic.

Professor Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomics at NIESR, said the government faced tough choices ahead: “With growth at only 1.3% and inflation above target, things are not looking good for the chancellor, who will need to either raise taxes or reduce spending or both in the October budget.”

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