The sun is shining on Nextracker in extended trading Tuesday, as shares soared after the solar technology company reported a top and bottom line beat for its fiscal third quarter. Even better, management increased its full-year profitability outlook and reported a record backlog. Revenue in its fiscal 2025 third quarter came in at $679 million, down 4.5% year over year, but well ahead of the $651 million consensus estimate, according to LSEG. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.03 in the three months ended Dec. 31 rose 7.3% on an annual basis, breezing past the 59-cent estimate, LSEG data showed. The results were strong and the call was bullish. Nextracker executives are firing on all cylinders, winning larger projects both in the U.S. and abroad, and the company seems well-positioned to navigate any hiccups resulting from tariffs, the supply chain or shifting U.S. energy policy priorities. It’s no wonder Nextracker shares jumped more than 16% in after-hours trading, to roughly $46.20 apiece. That is above the stock’s highest close so far this year, set on Jan. 16 at $45.27 a share. Nextracker began 2025 on a tear, extending momentum it found in mid-December after a post-election pullback ran its course. We twice sold into the strength, most recently on Jan. 7 . Following Nextracker’s Jan. 16 peak, though, the stock had been negative in six out of the past seven sessions through Tuesday. NXT 1Y mountain Nextracker shares over the past 12 months. Bottom line It’s hard to ask for more than what Nextracker delivered Tuesday night. Sales and earnings trounced expectations, fueled by an adjusted EBITDA margin that crushed Wall Street expectations. EBITDA — short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization — is an alternative measure of operating profitability. Free cash flow also ran well ahead of estimates. Better yet, the future looks bright. Management raised its outlook for full-year cash flow and earnings, thanks no doubt to a record backlog that is now “significantly greater than $4.5 billion,” according to a press release. At the end of Nextracker’s fiscal second quarter, the company said the backlog was “more than $4.5 billion.” Investors keep a close eye on changes to this descriptive language, evidenced by an earnings sell-off in August after Nextracker used “over $4 billion” for the second straight quarter. The backlog growth is being supported by “robust demand in all key regions for the company with meaningful contributions from new products,” the press release said. During the earnings call, we learned that 87% of Nextracker’s backlog is expected to be realized over the next eight quarters. And of that eight-quarter chunk, “the majority of that” is expected to be realized over the next four quarters, President Howard Wenger said on the call. Tuesday’s report makes clear that this is a very strong management team, and the raised guidance — and record backlog — bode very well for the future. “As far as the U.S. market goes, the demand is strong,” Wenger said. “We had record bookings in the U.S. this quarter and our pipeline is indicative of continued strength.” Nevertheless, we’re keeping our hold-equivalent 2 rating and price target of $55 a share on Nextracker’s stock. For starters, it’s not our style to chase a move like the one we are seeing in extended trading Tuesday. But, crucially, we also need more clarity on solar policy under the new Trump administration. While President Donald Trump has said that he’s a “big fan of solar,” it’s unclear what the administration’s policies will be regarding government spending on renewable energy and solar tax credits. Trump has notably been critical of wind energy, and since taking office last week, he has taken a number of steps to boost fossil fuel production in the U.S. Nextracker Why we own it: Nextracker makes industry-leading tracking technology, which enables large-scale solar panel installations to follow the sun’s movement and increase their power generation. The stock has been volatile and largely disappointing, but we see this investment as a long-term bet on growing electricity demand, driven in large part by artificial intelligence computing. Competitors: Array Technologies Weight in the Club portfolio: 0.92% Initiation: June 27, 2024 Most recent buy: Sept. 6, 2024 Trump’s pledges to raise tariffs on imports into the U.S. is another wrinkle to the Nextracker story. Asked about tariffs, Nextracker executives sounded confident in their ability to navigate whatever may come, calling out “very strong relationships” with U.S. steel mills and a diversified international supply chain that includes India, a solid alternative to China. “We’re in this great position [where] we can make locally for local markets, or we can export to arbitrage depending on what’s happening with the global supply chain,” CEO Dan Shugar said on the call. That supply chain strength also makes Nextracker more attractive to customers. In our October earnings reaction, we noted that Nextracker’s successful efforts to sell 100% domestically made solar trackers could make its products more attractive to customers since they will be able to take advantage of a 10% investment tax credit included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Wenger provided a positive update on this dynamic on Tuesday’s call. “From a customer perspective in our pipeline, in our actual bookings, we’re seeing more and more domestic content to be part of what we’re contracted to do and not only to have domestic content, but they have higher and higher levels of domestic content,” he said. “We’re seeing more customers wanting 100% domestic content.” Ultimately, Nextracker continues to differentiate itself from the competition, resulting in growing demand. Wenger argued that Nextracker is winning because of what executives see as a “flight to quality.” “Over time with scale, these projects are getting bigger and bigger. There’s more of them where we believe we’re emerging as really the trusted brand, but we’re also differentiated across many of the key buying vectors, proven technology, proven low cost, proven energy yield,” he said, which all contributes to a lower levelized cost of energy, or LCOE, a key metric in the industry. Guidance Similar to what we saw in late October, Nextracker reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance while increasing its outlook profitability and cash flow. 2025 revenue guidance: $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $700 million to $740 million, up from $625 million to $665 million 2025 adjusted EPS guidance: $3.75 to $3.95, an increase from $3.10 to $3.30 Reiterating sales guidance is understandable considering there is elevated uncertainty about U.S. policy with Trump back in the White House and Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress. However, the material increase to the profit outlook demonstrates the strength of Nextracker’s leadership team, as the company is operating much more efficiently than the Street was expecting. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NXT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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The sun is shining on Nextracker in extended trading Tuesday, as shares soared after the solar technology company reported a top and bottom line beat for its fiscal third quarter. Even better, management increased its full-year profitability outlook and reported a record backlog.
Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
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March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
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However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss how Elon Musk killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surging, how Chinese EVs keep killing it, and more.
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