Tesla FSD will ‘go ballistic’ next year, says guy who said that last year
Tesla will “go ballistic” next year on the back of its autonomy efforts says Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who said the same thing last year about this year – and many years before.
Tesla held its Q4 and full year 2024 earnings today, missing expectations on revenue and earnings. The company had its first down sales year since 2011, despite a rising EV market.
The market initially responded poorly to the numbers, but recovered as Tesla guided a return to growth.
Part of that return to growth includes Musk’s prediction that Tesla’s autonomous offerings will drastically improve, leading to an “epic 2026 and a ridiculously good ’27 and ’28.” He said that Tesla is “really going to go ballistic next year, and really ballistic in ’27 and ’28.”
But these statements echo things that Musk has said before, even up until a few months ago.
Last year, in Tesla’s Q2 earnings call, Musk described no less than 6 ways that the company would change the world in 2025.
Those six ways were: Tesla Semi, a new “affordable EV,” the next-gen Roadster, unsupervised full self-driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus robot.
Those last three all fall under the umbrella of autonomous operation, which Musk has pivoted increasingly towards promising on short timelines (“next year”) and with ridiculous valuations (~$20-30 trillion market cap) in an attempt to pump the stock that the vast majority of his wealth is held in.
Those promises were supposed to come this year, in 2025, when they were promised last year, in 2024.
But today, during 2025, Musk seemed to move back that promise to next year, 2026.
It’s something that has happened many times before, as Musk has continually promised fully autonomous operation for several years now. Going all the way back to 2014, we’ve heard promises that Tesla’s cars would be able to drive themselves, even across country with no driver, as early as 2017. Many of these promises included the phrase “next year,” just as today’s did, despite Musk’s earliest timelines now being 8 years ago.
In today’s call, Musk spent a lot of time highlighting recent progress Tesla has made towards large-scale unsupervised FSD, by pointing out that Tesla’s vehicles are now able to operate themselves at low-speed on well-marked private property by driving themselves around a factory parking lot. It is, at least, an improvement from being unable to drive themselves through a one-way tunnel.
Musk also went on to say that fully autonomous robotaxis would be in operation within 5 months in some US cities, and in all US cities by the end of next year. Tesla will start off in Austin, two-and-a-half years after Cruise started operation there (and later ended it), and after Waymo has already started testing in the area.
He said that FSD would come later in Europe, mostly due to disparate regulatory regimes in the region, which he said need to be fixed (and yet, he is lobbying to make regulations even more disparate in Europe, through advocating for parties that want to break up the EU, like the neo-Nazi AfD party in Germany, and others).
On the back of these autonomy advancements, which are coming after other companies have already started doing the same thing, Musk said that Tesla has the potential to become “the most valuable company in the world” and “worth more than the next five companies combined.”
But, according to Musk, you shouldn’t be skeptical of his timeline. Despite the fact that he has continually been wrong, and said that it’s hard to predict the future (and yet he keeps doing so), he claimed today that “the only people who are skeptical are those who haven’t [tried FSD].” So, sound off in the comments if you’ve tried FSD and yet are skeptical of Tesla reaching full autonomy next year.
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EVs got a little more affordable in May, and Tesla’s price drop had a lot to do with that. According to new data from Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new EV in May was $57,734. That’s down from $59,123 in April. Year-over-year, that’s a 1.1% drop.
At the same time, incentives are heating up. The average EV incentive in May hit $8,225, or 14.2% of the ATP. That’s more than double the average incentive across the broader auto industry and higher than last May’s 12%. According to Cox Automotive, that makes May the most incentive-heavy month since what Cox Automotive calls the beginning of the modern EV era, which is when EVs passed the 1% market share mark, in 2018.
Tesla’s prices played a big role in this shift. The company’s ATPs dropped 1.5% in May, landing at $55,277. Year-over-year, Tesla prices are down 2.8%.
The Model 3 and the Cybertruck inched up in price in May, but just barely – less than 1%. Every other Tesla model saw prices fall month-over-month. The Model Y, Tesla’s top seller and the most popular EV in the US, dropped 2.9% from April to an average price of $53,895.
Read more: Cybertruck sales slump as EV prices rise and incentives dry up
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Toyota’s new electric SUV is about the size of a Tesla Model Y, but half the cost. The bZ5 officially launched in China on Tuesday, starting at around $18,000. Can it keep pace with BYD, Tesla, and others in China?
Toyota’s new bZ5 EV lands in China for $18,000
We knew it was coming soon. Toyota’s joint venture partner in China, FAW Toyota, announced last week that it was planning to officially launch the bZ5 on June 10.
The bZ5 is available in four trims: Joy, Pro, Pro Smart Edition, and an extended range Pro model. It’s offered with two BYD Blade battery options: 65.28 kWh and 73.98 kWh.
Powered by the standard battery, the Joy, Pro, and Pro Smart Edition models are rated for a CLTC range of 550 km (342 miles). Upgrading to the Pro trim with the larger battery provides a range of 630 km (391 miles). All trims can be recharged from 30% to 80% in approximately 27 minutes.
The base model starts at 129,800 yuan ($18,000) while prices range up to 159,800 yuan ($22,000) for the Pro Smart Edition and extended range variants.
With a unique style, including Toyota’s new hammerhead front-end design, a full-length light bar, and a crossover fastback-like silhouette, the bZ5 is a sleek, sporty-looking EV.
The bZ5 is 4,780 mm in length, 1,866 mm in width, and 1,510 mm in height, with a wheelbase of 2,880 mm. For comparison, the Tesla Model Y measures 4,797 mm in length, 1,920 mm in width, and 1,624 mm in height, with a wheelbase of 2,890 mm.
In China, however, Toyota’s new EV is about half the cost. The base Tesla Model Y starts at 263,500 yuan ($36,700) in China, more than double the price of the bZ5, but offers a CLTC range of 593 km (368 miles).
Although the interior is relatively minimalistic, it’s packed with advanced tech and safety features. A 15.6″ infotainment sits at the center with a smaller driver display cluster.
Powered by Momenta 5.0 smart driving tech, the bZ5 is equipped with a new Toyota Pilot ADAS system. The system utilizes 33 sensors, which enable over 30 ADAS features, including assisted highway and city driving, as well as parking assistance. Higher trims include an added LiDAR sensor.
The bZ5 will sit between the bZ3X and bZ4X as Toyota expands its EV lineup in China. It follows the bZ3X, which launched in March starting at just 109,800 yuan ($15,000).
Source: CarNewsChina, FAW Toyota
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Kia’s three-row electric SUV, the EV9, is back for 2026 with smaller up-front rebates, but thanks to the federal EV tax credit, you could still come out ahead.
The 2025 Kia EV9 started at $56,395 and came with up to $10,000 off, thanks to Kia’s generous deals. That helped clear out inventory fast. Now, for 2026, Kia is dialing its deals back a bit.
According to a dealer bulletin seen by CarsDirect, the 2026 EV9 is launching with a $4,000 Customer Cash incentive available on all trims for buyers. On top of that, there’s a $1,000 Competitive Bonus Program for shoppers who either lease or buy the EV9 by July 7. That bonus is open to anyone who owns a 2014-2026 vehicle from a competing brand – think BMW, Tesla, Toyota, and others. No trade-in is required.
That means eligible shoppers could knock $5,000 off the sticker price. And since the 2026 EV9 qualifies for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit (at least most trims), total savings could climb to $12,500.
Leasing instead of buying? Kia’s also offering a $399 per month introductory lease deal on the 2026 EV9.
That $4,000 rebate is a step down from the up to $10,000 off the 2025 model, but most 2025 EV9s weren’t eligible for the $7,500 tax credit. The 2026 version is, as long as you’re looking at a trim that qualifies. The high-performance EV9 GT is built in South Korea, which makes it ineligible under current federal rules, but the other EV9 trims built in Georgia qualify.
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