More people are crossing the English Channel in small boats on the weekend. Our data analysis shows last year 40% of the total number of arrivals happened on a Saturday or Sunday.
We have been looking into possible reasons why many more people are arriving in small boats on the weekend, and the explanation might not be quite what you expect.
Image: More people are crossing the Channel in small boats on the weekend
Here are a few theories.
French staffing and resources
One suggestion is that French border force, police and coastguard are not working to a consistent level seven days a week.
“Gangs have realised there are lower or less engaged staffing on weekends on the French side,” a former senior Home Office official who worked closely on deals with the French told Sky News.
A former immigration minister said they found it “frustrating” that “we were paying the French but weren’t able to specify operational deployments”.
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They said it would “not surprise me if the French had fewer people at the weekend and the people smugglers have come to realise that”.
Hundreds of millions have been given by the UK to France to police the Calais coast, most recently almost £500m in 2023.
Another former senior government official with responsibility for borders said the French would be able to demonstrate that “hundreds or thousands of officers are working there” but “strategically it suits France to have the gust with us”.
But when we put this to the French side there was a pushback.
Marc de Fleurian, the Calais MP from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party, says “blaming the other side of the Channel” is the “easy answer”.
He said it’s “cowardly to say it’s the other side’s fault”.
Image: More people cross the Channel on the weekends than any other day
Pierre Henri Dumont, who was the Calais MP from 2017-2024, said: “The reality is you can have as many police officers as you want, but people will cross the Channel. If you have eight rather than 100 police officers that won’t change anything at all.”
A French coastguard source told Sky News there are the same staffing levels at the weekend, he says “any suggestion there is less staffing on the weekends is laughable and an easy thing to say”.
Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said the government’s work with the French saw “more than 28,000 dangerous unnecessary crossing attempts prevented last year”.
He added French law enforcing officers “routinely patrol beaches on weekends as well as during the week”.
Smuggler planning
Smuggler supply chains might be linked to a specific day for a range of reasons, for example, as one former senior Home Office official suggests, the fact “boat engines, or parts, might arrive on a Friday”.
Mr Dumont says smuggling networks rely on people to do small jobs, like transporting boats, who may also have day jobs in the week. He says the reasons behind the weekend uptick “are not necessarily predictable ones”.
Image: A small inflatable dinghy crossing the English Channel from France to England in August 2024. Pic: Reuters
Another factor may be that because French police tend not to intervene once a boat is in the water, many small boats set off from inland waterways. The canal-type waterways which come inland before the Channel are often full of fishing boats on weekdays, making it easier to launch from the waterways on weekends.
Another suggestion from a Home Office source is that while many migrants who cross the channel are based in the camps around Calais, many use public transport to arrive for a timed departure and are therefore reliant on transport timetables which may be more limited at different times of the week.
Weather coincidence
Leaked Home Office analysis shows that of the number of weekend days where small boat crossings were more likely because of good weather conditions was disproportionately high last year.
The figures show that 61 out of 197 days where the weather meant there was a realistic possibility, likely or highly likely there would be a channel crossing were weekend days. However, we only have figures for 2024, and it seems unlikely the weather alone could account for three years of higher crossings on weekend days.
Donald Trump has said that his 28-point peace plan for Ukraine is “by far” not the “final offer”, ahead of crisis talks in Geneva.
Meeting on the sidelines of a G20 summit in South Africa, European and other Western leaders scrambled to respond to the US president’s demand for Ukraine to accept the plan drawn up by the Trump administration and the Kremlin.
In a joint statement on Saturday, they said the plan announced on Friday could serve as a basis for talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine but required “additional work”.
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As a result, a meeting has been hastily convened in Geneva, Switzerland, on Sunday, where national security advisers from the E3 – France, Britain and Germany – will meet EU, US and Ukrainian officials for further discussions.
Ahead of the talks, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address to his nation that Ukrainian representatives at the talks “know how to protect Ukrainian national interests and exactly what is needed to prevent Russia from carrying out” another invasion.
“Real peace is always based on security and justice,” the Ukrainian leader added.
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3:08
PM: ‘More to do’ on US Ukraine peace plan
The 28-point peace plan closely resembles the list of demands repeatedly stated by the Kremlin since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago and if adopted, would see Ukraine cede territory to Russia – and cut the size of its military.
Mr Trump has said he wants a response from Ukraine by Thursday, while suggesting an extension could be possible.
On Saturday, Mr Trump told reporters outside the White House that the plan was not the “final offer” when asked.
He said: “We’d like to get the peace, it should’ve happened a long time ago. The Ukraine war with Russia should’ve never happened. If I was president, it would have never happened. We’re trying to get it ended. One way or another, we have to get it ended.”
His secretary of state Marco Rubio insisted that the peace proposal was authored by the US, despite what a handful of senators have alleged.
“It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine,” he said.
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3:42
The 28-point peace plan explained
Leaders have sought to balance praise for President Trump’s attempt to end the war with recognition that some terms in his proposal are unpalatable for Kyiv.
“There are many things that cannot simply be an American proposal, which requires broader consultation,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on the sidelines of the G20, adding that an agreement had to allow for peace for Ukrainians and “security for all Europeans”.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz underlined the importance to Europe of supporting Ukraine.
“If Ukraine loses this war and possibly collapses, it will have an impact on European politics as a whole, on the entire European continent. And that is why we are so committed to this issue,” he said.
“There is currently an opportunity to end this war, but we are still quite a long way from a good outcome for everyone.”
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0:48
Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told reporters in Johannesburg: “We are concerned about [caps on military], because it’s fundamental that Ukraine has to be able to defend itself if there’s a ceasefire.”
He said the proposal “requires additional work”, adding: “And that’s why there’s been the agreement that in Geneva tomorrow [Sunday], you’ll have senior US personnel, you’ll have European NSAs [national security advisers], including the UK NSA, and obviously Ukrainians there to work further on the draft.”
Sir Keir also spoke to Mr Trump, relaying discussions held at G20 to the US leader, according to a Downing Street spokesperson, who added that the two leaders would speak again on Sunday.
“The G20 has worked together before to fix fundamental problems in the global economy. We need to find ways to play a constructive role again today in the face of the world challenges,” he said.
“I’d like to see us come together around a five-point plan for growth that leaves no one behind.”
Image: Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz at the G20 summit. Pic: PA
The US, however, is boycotting the talks.
The Trump administration made its opposition to South Africa’s G20 agenda clear earlier this year when the country started holding meetings ahead of the summit. South Africa gets to set the agenda as the country holding the rotating G20 presidency.
G20 leaders broke with tradition and adopted a declaration at the start of their summit – despite opposition from the US.
Vincent Magwenya, spokesman for South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, said a leaders’ declaration was adopted unanimously in Johannesburg.
The White House later accused South Africa of refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency.
The G20 bloc was formed in 1999 as a bridge between rich and poor nations to confront global financial crises.
While it often operates in the shadow of the powerful Group of Seven nations, G20 members represent around 85% of the world’s economy, 75% of international trade and more than half the global population.
Countries attending COP30, the biggest climate meeting of the year, have agreed steps to help speed up climate action, according to a draft deal.
The meeting of leaders in the Brazilian city of Belem also saw them agree to reviewing related trade barriers and triple the money given to developing countries to help them withstand extreme weather events, according to the draft.
However, the summit’s president Correa do Lago said “roadmaps” on fossil fuels and forests would be published as there was no consensus on these issues.
The annual United Nations conference brings together world leaders, scientists, campaigners, and negotiators from across the globe, who agree on collective next steps for tackling climate change.
The two-week conference in the Amazon city of Belem was due to end at 6pm local time (9pm UK time) on Friday, but it dragged into overtime.
The standoff was between the EU, which pressed for language on transitioning away from fossil fuels, and the Arab Group of nations, including major oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which opposed it.
The impasse was resolved following all-night negotiations led by Brazil, negotiators said.
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The European Union’s climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, said on Saturday that the proposed accord was acceptable, even though the bloc would have liked more.
“We should support it because at least it is going in the right direction,” he said.
The Brazilian presidency scheduled a closing plenary session.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and about 80 countries, including the UK and coal-rich Colombia, had been pushing for a plan on how to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
This is a pledge all countries agreed to two years ago at COP28 – then did very little about since.
But scores of countries – including major oil and gas producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia – see this push as too prescriptive or a threat to their economies.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Israel says it has begun striking Hamas targets in Gaza, reportedly killing at least nine people, after what it called a “blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement”.
Local health authorities in Gaza said there had been three separate airstrikes, one hit a car in the densely populated Rimal neighbourhood, killing five people and wounding several others.
Shortly after the attack on the car, the Israeli air force hit two more targets in the central Gaza Strip, medics said.
They said at least four people died when two houses were struck in Deir Al-Balah city and Nuseirat camp.
The Israeli military said there had been a “blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement”.
It claimed a gunman had crossed into Israeli-held territory after exploiting “the humanitarian road in the area through which humanitarian aid enters southern Gaza”.
A Hamas official rejected the Israeli military’s allegations as baseless, calling them an “excuse to kill”, adding the Palestinian group was committed to the ceasefire agreement.
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The Israeli airstrikes are a further test of a fragile ceasefire with Hamas, which has held since 10 October following the two-year Gaza war.
Israel pulled back its troops, and the flow of aid into the territory has increased. But violence has not completely halted.
Palestinian health authorities say Israeli forces have killed 316 people in strikes on Gaza since the truce.
Meanwhile, Israel says three of its soldiers have been killed since the ceasefire began and it has attacked scores of militants.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.