All the polling moves that push Reform UK to the top for the first time this week are within the margin of error and the overall picture remains unchanged – with Britain in a new period of three party politics in the polls.
However, the symbolism of Reform UK topping the poll is likely to be seized on by MPs from all parties.
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One in five Tory voters at the last election would now vote for Reform.
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Is Reform UK winning the ‘bro vote’?
The Tories are likely to be the hardest hit by the poll, having been in third place since YouGov restarted polling after the general election.
The Sky News/YouGov poll also found Kemi Badenoch has slipped behind Nigel Farage when voters are asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the leaders.
Last month, Badenoch has a net favourability rating of -25, but that has now dropped to -29 this month.
This puts her below Farage, who had a net favourability rating of -32 last month, which has now risen to -27 this month.
Image: Kemi Badenoch has fallen behind Nigel Farage in terms of net favourability rating. Pic: PA
Keir Starmer is less popular than both Farage and Badenoch, with his net favourability rating now at -36.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey is much more popular, with his net favourability rating now at -9 – although this is not directly translated across into voting intention.
These figures are likely to restart the debate in the Tory party about whether they should consider merging with Reform UK, something which Badenoch has repeatedly rejected.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer is less popular than both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage. Pic: PA
A total of 43% of those polled who voted Tory in the last general election support a merger, compared with 31% against.
Reform UK voters are more likely to oppose, with 40% against and 31% for.
A hostile environment era deportation policy for criminals is being expanded by the Labour government as it continues its migration crackdown.
The government wants to go further in extraditing foreign offenders before they have a chance to appeal by including more countries in the existing scheme.
Offenders that have a human right appeal rejected will get offshored, and further appeals will then get heard from abroad.
It follows the government announcing on Saturday that it wants to deport criminals as soon as they are sentenced.
The “deport now, appeal later” policy was first introduced when Baroness Theresa May was home secretary in 2014 as part of the Conservative government’s hostile environment policy to try and reduce migration.
It saw hundreds of people returned to a handful of countries like Kenya and Jamaica under Section 94B of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002, added in via amendment.
In 2017, a Supreme Court effectively stopped the policy from being used after it was challenged on the grounds that appealing from abroad was not compliant with human rights.
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However, in 2023, then home secretary Suella Braverman announced she was restarting the policy after providing more facilities abroad for people to lodge their appeals.
Now, the current government says it is expanding the partnership from eight countries to 23.
Previously, offenders were being returned to Finland, Nigeria, Estonia, Albania, Belize, Mauritius, Tanzania and Kosovo for remote hearings.
Angola, Australia, Botswana, Brunei, Bulgaria, Canada, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Latvia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Uganda and Zambia are the countries being added – with the government wanting to include more.
Image: Theresa May’s hostile environment policy proved controversial. Pic: PA
The Home Office claims this is the “the government’s latest tool in its comprehensive approach to scaling up our ability to remove foreign criminals”, touting 5,200 removals of foreign offenders since July 2024 – an increase of 14% compared with the year before.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Those who commit crimes in our country cannot be allowed to manipulate the system, which is why we are restoring control and sending a clear message that our laws must be respected and will be enforced.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “We are leading diplomatic efforts to increase the number of countries where foreign criminals can be swiftly returned, and if they want to appeal, they can do so safely from their home country.
“Under this scheme, we’re investing in international partnerships that uphold our security and make our streets safer.”
Both ministers opposed the hostile environment policy when in opposition.
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In 2015, Sir Keir Starmer had questioned whether such a policy was workable – saying in-person appeals were the norm for 200 years and had been a “highly effective way of resolving differences”.
He also raised concerns about the impact on children if parents were deported and then returned after a successful appeal.
In today’s announcement, the prime minister’s administration said it wanted to prevent people from “gaming the system” and clamp down on people staying in the UK for “months or years” while appeals are heard.
TRM Labs says the Embargo ransomware group has moved over $34 million in ransom-linked crypto since April, targeting US hospitals and critical infrastructure.