All the polling moves that push Reform UK to the top for the first time this week are within the margin of error and the overall picture remains unchanged – with Britain in a new period of three party politics in the polls.
However, the symbolism of Reform UK topping the poll is likely to be seized on by MPs from all parties.
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One in five Tory voters at the last election would now vote for Reform.
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Is Reform UK winning the ‘bro vote’?
The Tories are likely to be the hardest hit by the poll, having been in third place since YouGov restarted polling after the general election.
The Sky News/YouGov poll also found Kemi Badenoch has slipped behind Nigel Farage when voters are asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the leaders.
Last month, Badenoch has a net favourability rating of -25, but that has now dropped to -29 this month.
This puts her below Farage, who had a net favourability rating of -32 last month, which has now risen to -27 this month.
Image: Kemi Badenoch has fallen behind Nigel Farage in terms of net favourability rating. Pic: PA
Keir Starmer is less popular than both Farage and Badenoch, with his net favourability rating now at -36.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey is much more popular, with his net favourability rating now at -9 – although this is not directly translated across into voting intention.
These figures are likely to restart the debate in the Tory party about whether they should consider merging with Reform UK, something which Badenoch has repeatedly rejected.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer is less popular than both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage. Pic: PA
A total of 43% of those polled who voted Tory in the last general election support a merger, compared with 31% against.
Reform UK voters are more likely to oppose, with 40% against and 31% for.
And they’re off! Bridget Phillipson was first away in her two-horse race with Lucy Powell in the Labour deputy leadership stakes.
Facing a rival who was sacked from the government nine days earlier, the education secretary said the deputy leader should be a cabinet minister, as Angela Rayner was.
Launching her campaign at The Fire Station, a trendy music and entertainment venue in Sunderland, she also vowed to turn up the heat on Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
She also repeatedly called for party unity, at a time when Labour MPs are growing increasingly mutinous over Sir Keir Starmer’s dealings with sacked Washington ambassador Lord Mandelson.
Despite Ms Phillipson winning 175 nominations from Labour MPs to Ms Powell’s 117, bookmakers StarSports this weekend made Ms Powell 4/6 favourite with Ms Phillipson at 5/4.
But though the new deputy leader will not be deputy prime minister, a title that’s gone to David Lammy, Ms Phillipson praised the way Ms Rayner combined the two roles and rejected suggestions that as a cabinet minister she would be a part-time deputy leader.
“What can be achieved under a deputy leader with a seat at cabinet, just look at Angela Rayner,” Ms Phillipson told her enthusiastic supporters.
“Angela knew the importance of the role she had. There was nothing part-time about her deputy leadership.
“Last year I campaigned up and down the country to get Labour candidates elected – I’ve not stopped as education secretary – and I won’t stop as deputy leader.
“Because with local elections, and with elections in Wales and Scotland right around the corner, that role is going to be more important than ever.
“So that’s why, today, I pledge to continue Angela Rayner’s campaigning role as deputy leader.
“Continuing her mission to give members a strong voice at the cabinet table.
“Her ruthless focus on getting our candidates elected and re-elected, alongside her total determination to drive change from government. Because what mattered was not just what she believed, but that she could act on it.”
Ms Phillipson pledged to run a campaign of “hope, not grievance” and claimed the party descending into division would put the chances of children and families benefiting from Labour policies at risk.
But admitting Sir Keir Starmer’s government had made mistakes, she appealed to party members: “You can use this contest to look backward, to pass judgement on what has happened in the last year, or you can use it to shape positively what happens in the run-up to the next election.
“Back me so I can unite our party, deliver the change we want to see and beat Reform. Back me so together, we can deliver that second term of Labour government.”
Image: Phillipson with Labour supporters at her campaign launch on Sunday. Pic: PA
Starmer’s candidate vs Manchester mayor’s
As she did in a speech at the TUC conference last week, Ms Phillipson spoke about her upbringing “from a tough street of council houses in the North East all the way to the cabinet”.
At the TUC, she said she grew up – “just me and my mam” – and told how when she was nine, a man who’d burgled the house turned up at the front door with a baseball bat and threatened her mother.
Ms Powell, who enjoys the powerful backing of Labour’s ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham, called this weekend for a change in culture in 10 Downing Street, with better decisions and fewer unforced errors.
His backing has led to the deputy contest being seen as a battle between Sir Keir’s candidate, Ms Phillipson, and that of the Greater Manchester mayor, seen increasingly as a leadership rival to the prime minister.
And like all the best horse races, with the betting currently so tight, when the result is declared on 25 October the result could be a photo-finish.