Starmer must delicately balance his risky EU reset as UK braces for Trump’s next move on tariffs
As Donald Trump kicks off his threatened trade war by slapping tariffs on both friends and foes alike, Number 10 is preparing for the moment he turns his attention to the UK.
The unpredictability of the returning president, emboldened by a second term, means the prime minister must plan for every possible scenario.
Under normal circumstances, the special relationship might be the basis for special treatment but the early signs suggest, maybe not.
Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
It was never going to be an easy ride, with Sir Keir Starmer’s top team racking up years of insults against Trump when they were in opposition.
The bad feeling continued when Peter Mandelson was proposed as the UK’s new ambassador to the US – prompting speculation he might even be vetoed.
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Tariffs against Canada ‘will put US jobs at risk’
Amid all of this, the much-anticipated call between the two leaders seemed slow to take place, although it was cordial when POTUS finally picked up the phone last Sunday, with a trip to Washington to come “soon”.
It is against this slightly tense backdrop that the future of transatlantic trade will be decided, with Westminster braced for the impact of the president’s next move.
So, it’s unsurprising that as he waits, Sir Keir will spend the next few days resetting a different trading relationship – with Europe.
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Sky’s Ed Conway explains Donald Trump’s plan for tariffs
In this area, he is on slightly firmer ground, as the spectre of a global trade war makes European leaders want to huddle closer together to weather the storm.
And conversely, the Labour government’s track record works in their favour here, as they cash in their pro-EU credentials and wipe the slate clean after the bad-tempered Boris Johnson years.
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Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer address the media in Brussels in October. Pic: Reuters
It is still, however, an ambitious and risky endeavour to begin the delicate process of removing some of the most obstructive post-Brexit bureaucracy.
For minimal economic benefits on both sides, the UK must convince the Europeans that they are not letting Britain “have its cake and eat it”.
At the same time, Brexiteers back at home will cry betrayal at any hint that the UK is sneaking back into the bloc via the back door.
Pic: Reuters
To make it even trickier, it must all be done with one eye on Washington, because while a united Europe may be necessary in the Trump era, the prime minister will not want to seem like he is picking sides so early on.
As with so many things in politics, it’s a delicate balancing act with the most serious of consequences, for a prime minister who is still to prove himself.
Several crypto-linked stocks climbed on Friday as prediction-market odds of a December rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level this month.
Three US-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising in the session and showing double-digit gains over the past five days.
Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase notched more modest increases at the time of writing.
Bitcoin (BTC) was also up around 7% on the week, after dropping to around $82,000 on Nov. 21, according to CoinGecko data.
Much of the volatility in prediction-market pricing this month has been driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials.
On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” a remark investors took as hawkish — which means the Fed could delay rate cuts and keep conditions tight. Polymarket odds slipped from 89% the day before to as low as 22% by Nov. 20.
Sentiment shifted on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, arguing that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation is now “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target.
Related: Kalshi, Polymarket traders bet Supreme Court will curb Trump’s tariff powers
Prediction markets expand as demand surges
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which enable bettors to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, have expanded their reach and influence this year.
On Nov. 13, Polymarket inked a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to serve as the official prediction-market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championships and Zuffa Boxing. The partnership came shortly after it partnered with North American fantasy sports operator PrizePicks.
The same month, Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, pushing its valuation to $11 billion, according to a TechCrunch report citing a person familiar with the deal. The new round followed a $300 million raise in October.
On Nov. 19, rumors emerged that Coinbase is developing its own prediction-market platform after tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong posted screenshots of an unreleased site. Wong’s images indicated the product would be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and backed by Kalshi.
On Wednesday, Robinhood said prediction markets have quickly become one of its fastest-growing revenue drivers, with more than one million users trading nine billion contracts since the product launched in March through a partnership with Kalshi.
Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice
This week, cryptocurrency markets staged a long-awaited recovery, following four consecutive weeks of downside momentum.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price reclaimed the $90,000 psychological mark on Wednesday, bringing some much-needed relief for Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders, who were once again back in profit as BTC traded above the key $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis of ETF buyers.
Bolstering investor sentiment, Cathie Wood, the CEO and chief investment officer of ARK Invest, said the company’s $1.5 million Bitcoin bull market price prediction remained unchanged, pointing to billions in returning liquidity following the end of the US government shutdown.
The crypto market recovery followed a sharp increase in expectations of interest rate cuts in the US, with odds rising by 46% in a week. Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the US Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 meeting, up from 39% a week before, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
However, Bitcoin is still facing the worst November in seven years, as the world’s first cryptocurrency is down about 17% on the monthly chart, despite the month averaging 41% historic Bitcoin returns, according to blockchain data provider CoinGlass.
Cathie Wood says ARK’s $1.5 million Bitcoin bull price hasn’t changed as markets eye rally
Equities and cryptocurrency markets may be setting up for a year-end reversal as liquidity improves and US monetary policy turns more supportive following the end of the record government shutdown.
Improving market conditions will be driven by the increasing liquidity, which has already returned $70 billion into markets since the end of the US government shutdown, with another $300 billion expected to return over the next five to six weeks as the Treasury General Account normalizes, according to investment management company ARK Invest.
Another potential catalyst will arrive on Dec. 1, when the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to end its quantitative tightening program and pivot toward quantitative easing, a shift that involves bond-buying to lower borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity.
“With liquidity returning, quantitative tightening (QT) ending December 1st, and monetary policy turning supportive, we believe conditions are building for markets to potentially reverse recent drawdowns,” wrote Ark in a Wednesday X post.
Crypto and AI liquidity squeeze may ease
The current “liquidity squeeze” limiting the upside of the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence markets is set to “reverse in the next few weeks,” wrote Cathie Wood, the CEO and chief investment officer of ARK Invest, in a Thursday X post.
Earlier in April, ARK Invest predicted a 2030 Bitcoin (BTC) price target of $1.5 million in the company’s “bull case,” and a $300,000 price target in the “bear case.”
Despite the recent crypto market correction and stablecoins subtracting from Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset, the bullish price target remains unchanged.
“The stablecoins have accelerated, taking some of the role away from Bitcoin that we expected,” but the “gold price appreciation has been far greater than we expected,” explained Wood during a webinar on Monday, adding:
“So net, our bull price, which most people focus on, really hasn’t changed.”
UK takes “meaningful step forward” with proposed DeFi tax overhaul
The UK has floated a new tax framework that eases the burden on decentralized finance (DeFi) users, with deferred capital gains taxes on crypto lending and liquidity pool users until the underlying token is sold, which the local industry has welcomed.
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) proposed on Wednesday a “no gain, no loss” approach to DeFi that would cover lending out a token and receiving the same type back, borrowing arrangements and moving tokens into a liquidity pool.
Taxable gains or losses would be calculated when liquidity tokens are redeemed, based on the number of tokens a user receives back compared to the number they originally contributed, according to the proposal.
Currently, when a user deposits funds into a protocol, regardless of the reason, the move may be subject to capital gains tax. In the UK, capital gains tax rates can vary from 18% and 32%, depending on the action.
Tax framework a “positive signal” for UK crypto regulation
Sian Morton, marketing lead at the crosschain payments system Relay protocol, said HMRC’s no gain, no loss approach is a “meaningful step forward for UK DeFi users who borrow stablecoins against their crypto collateral, and moves tax treatment closer to the actual economic reality of these interactions.”
“A positive signal for the UK’s evolving stance on crypto regulation,” she added.
Maria Riivari, a lawyer at the DeFi platform Aave, said the change “would bring clarity that DeFi transactions do not trigger tax until you truly sell your tokens.”
“Other countries facing similar questions may want to take note of HMRC’s approach and the depth of research and consideration behind it,” she added.
DWF Labs launches $75 million fund for “institutional phase” of DeFi
Crypto market maker and Web3 investment firm DWF Labs says it is investing up to $75 million in decentralized finance projects that could support institutional adoption.
The company shared its announcement via X on Wednesday, saying the fund will support projects with “innovative value” propositions that can scale to support large-scale adoption.
“The initiative will target blockchain projects building dark-pool perpetual DEXs, decentralized money markets, and fixed-income or yield-bearing asset products, […] areas the firm believes are poised for major growth as crypto liquidity continues its structural migration onchain,” DWF Labs said.
As part of the announcement, DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev emphasized the importance of building DeFi infrastructure “with real utility” that can support institutional demand.
“DeFi is entering its institutional phase,” he said, adding: “We’re seeing real demand for infrastructure that can handle size, protect order flow, and generate sustainable yield.”
The fund will focus on projects built across Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain and Solana, as well as Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 Base.
Alongside capital injections, DWF Labs will also offer support in ways such as “TVL and crypto liquidity provisioning, hands-on go-to-market strategy and execution support,” access to partnered exchanges, market makers, infrastructure providers and institutions in crypto.
Balancer community proposes plan to distribute funds recovered from hack
Two members of the Balancer protocol community submitted a proposal on Thursday outlining a distribution plan for a portion of the funds recovered from the protocol’s $116 million November exploit.
About $28 million from the $116 million heist was recovered by white hat hackers, internal rescuers and StakeWise — an Ether (ETH) liquid staking platform.
However, the proposal covers only the $8 million recovered by white hat hackers and internal rescue teams, while the nearly $20 million retrieved by StakeWise will be distributed separately to its users.
The authors proposed that all reimbursements should be non-socialized, meaning that funds would be distributed only to the specific liquidity pools that lost the funds and paid out on a pro-rata basis according to each holder’s share in the liquidity pool, represented by Balancer Pool Tokens (BPT).
Reimbursements should also be paid in-kind, with victims of the hack receiving payment denominated in the tokens they lost to avoid price mismatches between different digital assets, according to the authors.
The Balancer hack was one of the “most sophisticated” attacks in 2025, according to Deddy Lavid, the CEO of blockchain cybersecurity company Cyvers, highlighting the need for crypto user safety as security threats continue to evolve.
Nasdaq-listed Enlivex plans $212 million RAIN token play with ex-Italian PM onboard
A Nasdaq-listed biotech firm is raising $212 million in a late-cycle pivot into crypto, planning to buy the token of a decentralized prediction market even as other digital-asset treasuries (DATs) struggle to stay afloat.
Enlivex Therapeutics (ENLV), a clinical-stage macrophage reprogramming immunotherapy company, said on Monday it plans to raise $212 million through private investment in public equity, selling 212 million shares at $1 each. The price represents an 11.5% discount to Friday’s close, according to the company’s filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
The company plans to invest the majority of the $212 million in Rain (RAIN), the utility token behind the Rain decentralized prediction market on the Arbitrum network, marking the first corporate strategy centered on a prediction market token, according to a Monday announcement shared with Cointelegraph.
“We see prediction markets as one of the most exciting emerging sectors in the blockchain space,” with “exceptional” long-term growth potential, Shai Novik, executive chairman at Enlivex Therapeutics, told Cointelegraph.
“By entering now, we benefit from a first-mover advantage in a fundamentally strong category.”
When asked about the reason for choosing the Rain protocol, Novik said that its “decentralized” architecture stood out, as it serves as a “scalable model which supports global access and growth.”
Enlivex expects to complete its Rain purchases within 30 days of the offering’s close.
DeFi market overview
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the green.
The SPX6900 (SPX) memecoin rose over 43% as the week’s biggest winner, followed by the Layer-1 blockchain Kaspa’s (KAS) token, up 39% during the past week.
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
Politics
Budget 2025: Reeves urged to ‘make the case’ for income tax freeze – as PM hits out at defenders of ‘failed’ policy
Rachel Reeves needs to “make the case” to voters that extending the freeze on personal income thresholds was the “fairest” way to increase taxes, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.
Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said the chancellor needed to explain that her decision would “protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes”.
In her budget on Wednesday, Ms Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds – introduced by the Conservatives in 2021 and due to expire in 2028 – by three years.
The move – described by critics as a “stealth tax” – is estimated to raise £8bn for the exchequer in 2029-2030 by dragging some 1.7 million people into a higher tax band as their pay goes up.
Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA
The chancellor previously said she would not freeze thresholds as it would “hurt working people” – prompting accusations she has broken the trust of voters.
During the general election campaign, Labour promised not to increase VAT, national insurance or income tax rates.
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted there’s been no manifesto breach, but acknowledged people were being asked to “contribute” to protect public services.
He has also launched a staunch defence of the government’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap, with its estimated cost of around £3bn by the end of this parliament.
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Prime minister defends budget
‘A moral failure’
The prime minister condemned the Conservative policy as a “failed social experiment” and said those who defend it stand for “a moral failure and an economic disaster”.
“The record highs of child poverty in this country aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet – they mean millions of children are going to bed hungry, falling behind at school, and growing up believing that a better future is out of reach despite their parents doing everything right,” he said.
The two-child limit restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.
The government believes lifting the limit will pull 450,000 children out of poverty, which it argues will ultimately help reduce costs by preventing knock-on issues like dependency on welfare – and help people find jobs.
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Budget winners and losers
Speaking to Rigby, Baroness Harman said Ms Reeves now needed to convince “the woman on the doorstep” of why she’s raised taxes in the way that she has.
“I think Rachel really answered it very, very clearly when she said, ‘well, actually, we haven’t broken the manifesto because the manifesto was about rates’.
“And you remember there was a big kerfuffle before the budget about whether they would increase the rate of income tax or the rate of national insurance, and they backed off that because that would have been a breach of the manifesto.
“But she has had to increase the tax take, and she’s done it by increasing by freezing the thresholds, which she says she didn’t want to do. But she’s tried to do it with the fairest possible way, with counterbalancing support for people on low incomes.”
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She added: “And that is the argument that’s now got to be had with the public. The Labour members of parliament are happy about it. The markets essentially are happy about it. But she needs to make the case, and everybody in the government is going to need to make the case about it.
“This was a difficult thing to do, but it’s been done in the fairest possible way, and it’s for the good, because it will protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes.”
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