As Donald Trump kicks off his threatened trade war by slapping tariffs on both friends and foes alike, Number 10 is preparing for the moment he turns his attention to the UK.
The unpredictability of the returning president, emboldened by a second term, means the prime minister must plan for every possible scenario.
Under normal circumstances, the special relationship might be the basis for special treatment but the early signs suggest, maybe not.
Image: Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
It was never going to be an easy ride, with Sir Keir Starmer’s top team racking up years of insults against Trump when they were in opposition.
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Tariffs against Canada ‘will put US jobs at risk’
Amid all of this, the much-anticipated call between the two leaders seemed slow to take place, although it was cordial when POTUS finally picked up the phone last Sunday, with a trip to Washington to come “soon”.
It is against this slightly tense backdrop that the future of transatlantic trade will be decided, with Westminster braced for the impact of the president’s next move.
So, it’s unsurprising that as he waits, Sir Keir will spend the next few days resetting a different trading relationship – with Europe.
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Sky’s Ed Conway explains Donald Trump’s plan for tariffs
In this area, he is on slightly firmer ground, as the spectre of a global trade war makes European leaders want to huddle closer together to weather the storm.
And conversely, the Labour government’s track record works in their favour here, as they cash in their pro-EU credentials and wipe the slate clean after the bad-tempered Boris Johnson years.
Image: Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer address the media in Brussels in October. Pic: Reuters
It is still, however, an ambitious and risky endeavour to begin the delicate process of removing some of the most obstructive post-Brexit bureaucracy.
For minimal economic benefits on both sides, the UK must convince the Europeans that they are not letting Britain “have its cake and eat it”.
At the same time, Brexiteers back at home will cry betrayal at any hint that the UK is sneaking back into the bloc via the back door.
Image: Pic: Reuters
To make it even trickier, it must all be done with one eye on Washington, because while a united Europe may be necessary in the Trump era, the prime minister will not want to seem like he is picking sides so early on.
As with so many things in politics, it’s a delicate balancing act with the most serious of consequences, for a prime minister who is still to prove himself.
Lucy Powell has accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race in a special episode of Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.
With just days to go until the race is decided, Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby spoke to the two leadership rivals about allegations of leaks, questions of party unity and their political vision.
Ms Powell told Electoral Dysfunction that through the course of the contest, she had “never leaked or briefed”.
But she said of negative stories about her in the media: “I think some of these things have also come from my opponent’s team as well. And I think they need calling out.
“We are two strong women standing in this contest. We’ve both got different things to bring to the job. I’m not going to get into the business of smearing and briefing against Bridget.
“Having us airing our dirty washing, throwing mud – both in this campaign or indeed after this if I get elected as deputy leader – that is not the game that I’m in.”
Ms Powell was responding to a “Labour source” who told the New Statesman last week:“Lucy was sacked from cabinet because she couldn’t be trusted not to brief or leak.”
Ms Powell said she had spoken directly to Ms Phillipson about allegations of briefings “a little bit”.
Image: Bridget Phillipson (l) and Lucy Powell (r) spoke to Sky News’ Beth Rigby in a special Electoral Dysfunction double-header. Pics: Reuters
Phillipson denies leaks
But asked separately if her team had briefed against Ms Powell, Ms Phillipson told Rigby: “Not to my knowledge.”
And Ms Phillipson said she had not spoken “directly” to her opponent about the claims of negative briefings, despite Ms Powell saying the pair had talked about it.
“I don’t know if there’s been any discussion between the teams,” she added.
On the race itself, the education secretary said it would be “destabilising” if Ms Powell is elected, as she is no longer in the cabinet.
“I think there is a risk that comes of airing too much disagreement in public at a time when we need to focus on taking the fight to our opponents.
“I know Lucy would reject that, but I think that is for me a key choice that members are facing.”
She added: “It’s about the principle of having that rule outside of government that risks being the problem. I think I’ll be able to get more done in government.”
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But Ms Powell, who was recently sacked by Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the Commons, said she could “provide a stronger, more independent voice”.
“The party is withering on the vine at the same time, and people have got big jobs in government to do.
“Politics is moving really, really fast. Government is very, very slow. And I think having a full-time political deputy leader right now is the political injection we need.”
The result of the contest will be announced on Saturday 25 October.
The deputy leader has the potential to be a powerful and influential figure as the link between members and the parliamentary Labour Party, and will have a key role in election campaigns. They can’t be sacked by Sir Keir as they have their own mandate.
The contest was triggered by the resignation of Angela Rayner following a row over her tax affairs. She was also the deputy prime minister but this position was filled by David Lammy in a wider cabinet reshuffle.