As Donald Trump kicks off his threatened trade war by slapping tariffs on both friends and foes alike, Number 10 is preparing for the moment he turns his attention to the UK.
The unpredictability of the returning president, emboldened by a second term, means the prime minister must plan for every possible scenario.
Under normal circumstances, the special relationship might be the basis for special treatment but the early signs suggest, maybe not.
Image: Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
It was never going to be an easy ride, with Sir Keir Starmer’s top team racking up years of insults against Trump when they were in opposition.
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Amid all of this, the much-anticipated call between the two leaders seemed slow to take place, although it was cordial when POTUS finally picked up the phone last Sunday, with a trip to Washington to come “soon”.
It is against this slightly tense backdrop that the future of transatlantic trade will be decided, with Westminster braced for the impact of the president’s next move.
So, it’s unsurprising that as he waits, Sir Keir will spend the next few days resetting a different trading relationship – with Europe.
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In this area, he is on slightly firmer ground, as the spectre of a global trade war makes European leaders want to huddle closer together to weather the storm.
And conversely, the Labour government’s track record works in their favour here, as they cash in their pro-EU credentials and wipe the slate clean after the bad-tempered Boris Johnson years.
Image: Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer address the media in Brussels in October. Pic: Reuters
It is still, however, an ambitious and risky endeavour to begin the delicate process of removing some of the most obstructive post-Brexit bureaucracy.
For minimal economic benefits on both sides, the UK must convince the Europeans that they are not letting Britain “have its cake and eat it”.
At the same time, Brexiteers back at home will cry betrayal at any hint that the UK is sneaking back into the bloc via the back door.
Image: Pic: Reuters
To make it even trickier, it must all be done with one eye on Washington, because while a united Europe may be necessary in the Trump era, the prime minister will not want to seem like he is picking sides so early on.
As with so many things in politics, it’s a delicate balancing act with the most serious of consequences, for a prime minister who is still to prove himself.
A hostile environment era deportation policy for criminals is being expanded by the Labour government as it continues its migration crackdown.
The government wants to go further in extraditing foreign offenders before they have a chance to appeal by including more countries in the existing scheme.
Offenders that have a human right appeal rejected will get offshored, and further appeals will then get heard from abroad.
It follows the government announcing on Saturday that it wants to deport criminals as soon as they are sentenced.
The “deport now, appeal later” policy was first introduced when Baroness Theresa May was home secretary in 2014 as part of the Conservative government’s hostile environment policy to try and reduce migration.
It saw hundreds of people returned to a handful of countries like Kenya and Jamaica under Section 94B of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002, added in via amendment.
In 2017, a Supreme Court effectively stopped the policy from being used after it was challenged on the grounds that appealing from abroad was not compliant with human rights.
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However, in 2023, then home secretary Suella Braverman announced she was restarting the policy after providing more facilities abroad for people to lodge their appeals.
Now, the current government says it is expanding the partnership from eight countries to 23.
Previously, offenders were being returned to Finland, Nigeria, Estonia, Albania, Belize, Mauritius, Tanzania and Kosovo for remote hearings.
Angola, Australia, Botswana, Brunei, Bulgaria, Canada, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Latvia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Uganda and Zambia are the countries being added – with the government wanting to include more.
Image: Theresa May’s hostile environment policy proved controversial. Pic: PA
The Home Office claims this is the “the government’s latest tool in its comprehensive approach to scaling up our ability to remove foreign criminals”, touting 5,200 removals of foreign offenders since July 2024 – an increase of 14% compared with the year before.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Those who commit crimes in our country cannot be allowed to manipulate the system, which is why we are restoring control and sending a clear message that our laws must be respected and will be enforced.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “We are leading diplomatic efforts to increase the number of countries where foreign criminals can be swiftly returned, and if they want to appeal, they can do so safely from their home country.
“Under this scheme, we’re investing in international partnerships that uphold our security and make our streets safer.”
Both ministers opposed the hostile environment policy when in opposition.
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In 2015, Sir Keir Starmer had questioned whether such a policy was workable – saying in-person appeals were the norm for 200 years and had been a “highly effective way of resolving differences”.
He also raised concerns about the impact on children if parents were deported and then returned after a successful appeal.
In today’s announcement, the prime minister’s administration said it wanted to prevent people from “gaming the system” and clamp down on people staying in the UK for “months or years” while appeals are heard.
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