The UK economy is forecast to improve more slowly than previously predicted after stagnant growth late last year.
The EY ITEM Club expects UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1% in 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5%.
The economic forecaster is the latest influential group to cut its predictions amid continued pressure on businesses, which face further tax and wage rises in April.
It represents another blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ hopes of rapidly growing the economy.
The forecasts also point to 0.8% growth across the economy last year, suggesting only a slight acceleration in economic growth.
It comes after a weaker second half of 2024, with a worse-than-expected 0.1% rise in GDP in November and a 0.1% monthly decline in October.
The economy had flatlined over the third quarter of the year.
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But the UK is expected to see stronger growth next year, with the forecasts indicating it could see a 1.6% rise in 2026.
Anna Anthony, EY UK regional managing partner, said: “Despite the subdued finish to 2024, there are signs that the UK economy could turn a corner and achieve stronger levels of growth this year.
“Following a prolonged period of financial uncertainty, we should start to see an improvement in consumer confidence as real wages continue to increase, with many households feeling less of a financial squeeze by the end of 2025.”
She added: “The outlook for UK business is more of a mixed picture.
“While business investment is set to increase, tightening financial conditions and global trade uncertainty are expected to weigh on private sector confidence in the first half of this year.”
The UK and the EU have agreed a new trade deal – five years after Brexit kicked in.
Following six months of talks after Sir Keir Starmer promised a fresh deal when he became prime minister last July, the two sides have come to an agreement.
Here are the details:
eGates
British passport holders will be able to use more eGates in Europe to avoid the long border control queues that have become the norm since Brexit in many EU countries.
Pet travel
Pet passports will be brought back so cats and dogs coming from the UK will no longer need pricey animal health certificates for every trip. After Brexit, pet owners had to get a certificate from a vet in the UK then a vet in the EU before returning.
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Image: Pets will now be allowed to travel on a pet passport instead of having to have a health certificate every time they travel. Pic: iStock
Red tape on food and drink sales
A new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) deal has been agreed to reduce red tape currently needed to import and export food and drink between the UK and the EU.
There is no time limit to this part of the deal, which the government says will reduce the burden on businesses and reduce lorry queues at the border.
The “vast majority” of routine checks and certificates for animal and plant products will be removed completely, including between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The government says this could lower food prices and increase choice on supermarket shelves.
Some British foods that have been prevented from being sold in the EU since Brexit will be allowed back in again, including burgers and sausages.
Fishing rights
The current fishing deal agreed in 2020 will continue for 12 years.
There will be no increase in fish quotas.
Image: British fishing rights will continue for 12 years. Pic: PA
EU fishing vessels can fish in UK waters, but they require a valid licence, and there are annual negotiations on access and share of stock.
The UK government has announced a £360m investment into the fishing industry to go towards new technology and equipment to modernise the fleet, train the workforce, help revitalise coastal communities, support tourism and boost seafood exports.
Defence
A new security and defence partnership has been agreed so the UK defence industry can participate in the EU’s plan for a £150bn defence fund called Security Action for Europe (SAFE). This will support thousands of British jobs.
The UK and EU will also enhance cooperation over maritime security and accident reporting.
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3:01
Reeves: ‘Today is a really big day’
Carbon tax
The deal will see closer co-operation on emissions by the UK and the EU, linking their own emissions trading systems.
The UK’s scheme sets a cap on the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed from the power generation sector, energy-intensive industries and aviation, with companies issued allowances that they can trade with each other.
Under the deal, UK businesses will avoid being hit by the EU’s carbon tax, due to come in next year, which would have handed £800m to the EU.
Steel
British steel exports will be protected from new EU rules and tariffs to save UK steel £25m a year.
Further talks:
Youth mobility scheme
The UK and the EU have agreed to more negotiations on a youth mobility scheme to allow people aged 18-30 in the UK and the EU to move freely between countries for a limited period.
The scheme would include visas for young people working, studying, volunteering, travelling and working as au pairs.
Erasmus
The EU and the UK have agreed they should work towards an Erasmus programme, the student exchange programme which was scrapped when Brexit took place.
Catching criminals
The two sides have agreed to enter talks about the UK having access to EU facial images data to help catch dangerous criminals.
Migration
The two sides have agreed to further work on finding solutions to tackle illegal migration, including on returns and a joint commitment to tackle Channel crossings.
Electricity
The UK and the EU said they should explore the UK’s participation in the EU’s internal electricity market, including in its trading platforms.
Europe’s largest airline has seen annual earnings drop by 16% after cutting air fares – but revealed a price hike as it seeks to return to growth.
Ryanair reported profits after tax fell to €1.61bn (£1.35bn) for the year to 31 March, down from €1.92bn (£1.61bn) in 2024, still the second highest on record.
On average, plane tickets were 7% cheaper during this period than the 12 months before, it said.
There had been a 21% rise in fares in the year up to March 2024, which bosses had signalled was due to end.
Higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation in the first half of the year meant ticket prices had to come down, the budget carrier said.
But fares are already back on the rise, Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary said.
The airline “cautiously” expects to recover “most, but not all” of the fare decline, which he said will boost profits.
Demand for summer flights is “strong”, Mr O’Leary said, with peak fares “modestly” ahead of last year.
In recent months, that rebound has already been under way. Fares since April are on track to be “a mid-high teen per cent ahead” by the end of next month, compared with the same period last year.
That trend is expected to continue to July, August and September, Mr O’Leary said.
“While we cautiously expect to recover most, but not all of last year’s 7% fare decline, which should lead to reasonable net profit growth in 2025-26, it is far too early to provide any meaningful guidance,” he said.
“The final 2025-26 outcome remains heavily exposed to adverse external developments, including the risk of tariff wars, macro-economic shocks, conflict escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East and European air traffic control mismanagement/short staffing.”
Passenger numbers grew to a record 200 million on the back of cheaper fares, hitting a target that had been reduced due to delays in delivering new Boeing planes.
The US manufacturer has struggled with increased regulatory oversight after a door panel blew off an Alaska Airlines plane mid-flight in January last year. Strike action by staff had added to the delays.
The forecast for passenger numbers has been reduced again. Ryanair now aims to transport 206 million passengers in this financial year.
It hopes to reach 300 million passengers by 2034 and on Monday said it still expects to receive 300 new Boeing planes by 2033.
Talks went “down to the wire”, with a breakthrough at about 10.30pm on Sunday ahead of a Monday 10am deadline, as UK fishing rights were, yet again, a major sticking point negotiators had to work through.
Sky News understands the EU wanted permanent access to UK waters for fishing, but they have agreed to access for 12 years.
There will be no change to the current access for UK fishing communities, with no reduction in British quotas or increase in the amount the EU is allowed to catch.
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Fishing rights were a major part of the Brexit “leave” campaign, although fishing only accounts for 0.4% of GDP.
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3:14
UK-EU reset deal done
Details are expected later today on defence and security, which could feature an agreement allowing British firms access to a £125 billion EU defence.
The two sides were also looking at deals allowing British travellers to use e-gates at European airports and cutting red tape on food exports and animal/plant health for trade.
Sky News understands talks are continuing on a youth mobility scheme to allow people aged 18-30 in the UK and the EU to move freely between countries for a limited period of time.
Sir Keir Starmer promised in his 2024 election manifesto he would sign a new trade and security deal with the EU, and has embarked on a charm offensive across Europe since winning power.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves told a meeting of business leaders it had “not been easy” to reach a deal but said it would “make it easier” for UK businesses.
EU relations minister Nick Thomas Symonds said it was a “historic day”.
“Good for jobs, good for bills, good for borders,” he posted on X.
“And more…Britain back on the world stage, with a government in the service of working people.”
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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called the deal “very concerning” and said 12 years EU access for fishing is three times longer than the government wanted.
“We’re becoming a rule-taker from Brussels once again,” she said.
“And with no details on any cap or time limits on youth mobility, fears of free movement returning will only increase.”
Image: Fishing was a major sticking point in the talks. Pic: PA
Reform UK leader and Brexiteer Nigel Farage described the deal as a “surrender”.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News details were still being worked out just three hours before the deadline.
With just over an hour to go before the 10am deadline, the EU ambassadors’ committee approved the deal, ahead of a summit with EU leaders in London this morning.
A news conference to announce the details of the deal is set for later.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
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