PayPal reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results on Tuesday and issued guidance that also topped analysts’ expectations. The shares slid more than 9% in Tuesday morning trading.
Here’s how the company did compared with Wall Street estimates, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: $1.19, adjusted vs. $1.12 expected
Revenue: $8.37 billion vs. $8.26 billion expected
For the first quarter, PayPal expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.17, which is higher than the average analyst estimate of $1.13, though adjusted net income fell 1.9% to $1.21 billion. Earnings for the year will come in at $4.95 to $5.10 a share, topping the $4.90 average estimate, according to LSEG.
PayPal also announced a new $15 billion share buyback program, and expects to make around $6 billion in repurchases in 2025.
Revenue increased about 4% in the quarter from $8.03 billion a year ago.
Total payment volume, an indication of how digital payments are faring in the broader economy, was just short of estimates, coming in at $437.8 billion for the fourth quarter, versus the $438.2 billion analysts projected.
Unbranded payment volume — or the transactions PayPal handles for external businesses rather than its own platform — declined again in the fourth quarter as the company continues to pursue a price-to-value strategy, falling to 2% from 29% a year earlier. Chief Financial Officer Jamie Miller said during the earnings call the company expects “similar dynamics the next few quarters” and that over 2025, they expect renegotiations with existing customers to be an approximately “five-point revenue growth headwind.”
While PayPal’s take rate slipped to 1.91% from 1.96% a year earlier, transaction margin, which is how the company gauges the profitability of its core business, rose to 47% from 45.8%. In 2024, transaction margin dollars grew 7% to $14.7 billion, bolstered by Braintree, a service Meta uses for credit-card processing.
The company said it anticipates growth of 4% to 5% in transaction margin dollars in 2025 to $15.2 billion to $15.4 billion
PayPal’s stock is up 43% in the past year, as of Monday’s close. PayPal CEO Alex Chriss, who joined the company in September 2023, is trying to revive growth at PayPal, which had been been mired in a deep slump due to increased competition and a declining take rate, or the percentage of revenue PayPal keeps from each transaction.
Chriss has focused on prioritizing profitable growth and better monetizing key acquisitions like Braintree and payments app Venmo. In an earnings call on Tuesday, the PayPal CEO said the company had reduced headcount by 10% in 2024 and had made deliberate investments in AI and automation, which he described as being “critical” to the firm’s future.
Venmo’s total payment volume rose 10% in the quarter from a year earlier. DoorDash, Starbucks and Ticketmaster are among businesses now accepting Venmo as one way that consumers can pay.
In the short term, Chriss has said the two primary monetization levers are Venmo’s debit card, which allows customers to spend with their balance both online and offline, and Pay With Venmo, which provides a seamless way for customers to pay online.Monthly active accounts for the debit card grew more than 30% in 2024, and Pay with Venmo monthly actives increased more than 20%.
The company added 8.8 million active accounts last year.
Chriss said during the call with investors that solutions like Buy Now, Pay Later had helped PayPal expand its share of wallet, with BNPL customers spending 30% more on average. In 2024, he said BNPL had driven $33 billion in total payment volume, growing 21% from the previous year.
One of Chriss’ strategies to address the deteriorating margin was to offer merchants increased value-added services, such as connecting data points at checkout to drive down the rate of cart abandonment. That product, dubbed Fastlane, launched in August, and is a one-click payment option for online sales that can go head-to-head with Apple Pay and Shop Pay by Shopify.
“Seventy-five percent of Fastlane consumers are new or dormant PayPal users,” Chriss said during the earnings call. “This means that Fastlane not only improves conversion for our merchants, but also introduces more shoppers to PayPal and enables us to re-engage inactive users.”
In 2024, branded checkout volume rose more than 6%, thanks in part to strength across large enterprise platforms.
The other big product launch in 2024 was PayPal Everywhere, which went live in early September. The initiative offers 5% cash back for using a PayPal debit card within the mobile app.
“The improvements we made to branded checkout, peer-to-peer, and Venmo, plus the progress we made on our price-to-value strategy, are beginning to show up in our results,” Chriss said in the earnings statement.
Locals call him the “Bicycle hero,” but Texas man Evan Wayne says he’s just doing what he can to help his community after it was cut off due to the recent devastating and deadly flooding tragedy.
When the local Sandy Creek flooded following torrential rains in Texas, it destroyed the only bridge into one community. Residents were cut off from access to supplies, including everything from necessities like food, water, and medicine to basic comforts.
Although the bridge was impassable to cars, volunteers who quickly organized to help the stranded residents found that the damaged bridge could still be traversed on foot. Or in the case of Evan Wayne, it could be covered by an electric bike.
Evan joined hundreds of volunteers who answered the call of grassroots organizers by working together without any official capacity. While many started by hand-pulling garden carts of supplies uphill to reach the stricken community, Evan jury-rigged a trailer to an e-bike and took on as much of the load as he could, helping shuttle much-needed food and gear into the community over hundreds of round-trip journeys.
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“This was a dog trailer 48 hours ago. I had a hacksaw, hacked the top off, grabbed some bungee cords, and here we are,” explained Evan in an interview with CBS Austin, while waiting for the next load of gear to be stacked on his trailer.
In the first two days of the operation, he made around 100 round trips each day, shuttling food and water as well as critical rescue supplies. “Right now, I’m waiting on a couple of chainsaws that I’ll bring in for a crew that’s been going at it with handsaws so far.”
In addition to delivering needed supplies, Evan has often found himself moving something even more important: information. “I’ve flagged down medics. I’ve been the guy that goes between Austin EMT and STAR Flight because I’m quicker than cell phones sometimes, people don’t have signal a lot of the time.”
Evan quickly points out that he isn’t the only one helping. “I’ve got an e-bike, but other people are pulling carts. People are walking, people are carrying things. Everyone is doing what they can.” But there’s no doubt that his ability to carry more gear at higher speeds and make hundreds of round-trip journeys so far in and out of the stricken neighborhood has helped impact countless lives.
“This is all volunteers here. They’re just taking it upon themselves to get people where they need to go. I think there’s an umbrella company coming in, taking over tomorrow, but until they get here, people are just taking care of people, which is what you’ve got to do.”
E-bikes proving their worth in emergencies
While many people consider electric bicycles just another form of recreation, they’ve proven to be potent transportation alternatives after natural disasters worldwide.
Not only do their small and efficient batteries make performing hundreds of rescue trips like Evans’ possible, but recharging can be done simply and easily with a solar panel when electricity is out after a disaster. And when gas stations are out of fuel (or simply can’t pump it with the power grid down), e-bikes can keep running while gasoline-powered motorcycles or ATVs run dry.
Electric bicycle batteries have also proven to be a handy source of emergency power after hurricanes and other disasters, often helping owners keep their phones charged up for days to remain in contact with family or rescue services.
While most hope to never need theirs for emergency purposes, electric bicycles have proven their worth in countless disaster scenarios, adding benefits far beyond just alternative transportation, recreation, or fitness riding.
E-bikes can be kept running nearly indefinitely after natural disasters with access to solar recharging equipment
Image credits: CBS Austin (screenshots), used under fair use
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Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey testifies during a remote video hearing held by subcommittees of the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee on “Social Media’s Role in Promoting Extremism and Misinformation” in Washington, U.S., March 25, 2021.
Handout | Via Reuters
Block jumped more than 5% on Monday, leading a rally in shares of fintech companies as analysts downplayed the threat of JPMorgan Chase’s reported plan to charge data aggregators for access to customer financial information.
The recovery followed steep declines on Friday, after Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan had circulated pricing sheets outlining potential fees for aggregators like Plaid and Yodlee, which connect fintech platforms to users’ bank data.
In a note to clients on Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said the potential new expenses were “far from a ‘business model-breaking’ cost increase.”
In addition to Block’s rise, PayPal climbed 3.5% on Monday after sliding Friday. Robinhood and Shift4 recorded modest gains.
Broader market momentum helped fuel some of the rebound. The Nasdaq closed at a record, and crypto rallied, with bitcoin climbing past $123,000. Ether, solana, and other altcoins also gained.
Evercore ISI’s analysts said that even if JPMorgan’s changes were implemented, the most immediate effect would be a slight bump in the cost of one-time account setups — perhaps 50 to 60 cents.
Morgan Stanley echoed that view, writing that any impact would be “negligible,” especially for large fintechs that rely more on debit, credit, or stored balances than bank account pulls for transactions.
PayPal doesn’t anticipate much short-term impact, according to a person with knowledge of the issue. The person, who asked not to be named in order to speak about private financial matters, noted that PayPal relies on aggregators primarily for account verification and already has long-term pricing contracts in place.
While smaller fintechs that depend heavily on automated clearing house (ACH) rails or Open Banking frameworks for onboarding and compliance may face real pressure if the fees take effect, analysts said the larger platforms are largely insulated.
The global EV market is still charging ahead. According to new numbers from global research firm Rho Motion, 9.1 million EVs were sold worldwide in the first half of 2025, up 28% compared to the same period last year. But not every region is accelerating at the same pace.
China and Europe are doing the heavy lifting
More than half of the world’s EVs this year have been bought in China. That market hit 5.5 million sales in the first six months of 2025 – a 32% jump year-over-year. Around half of new cars bought in China are now electric.
While some Chinese cities’ subsidies have dried up, Rho Motion expects momentum to pick back up later in the year as more funding is released.
In Europe, 2 million EVs were sold in the first half of the year, up 26%. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales also rose 26%, thanks in part to affordable models like the Renault 4 (pictured) and 5 entering the market. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) weren’t far behind, growing 27% year-to-date. Chinese automakers are leaning into PHEVs as a way to work around the EU’s new tariffs on BEVs.
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Spain is leading the pack with EV sales soaring 85% so far this year. Its generous MOVES III incentive program was extended in April and has kept sales strong. The UK and Germany are also seeing solid growth – 32% and 40%, respectively. France, however, is slumping. With subsidies cut, EV sales there have dropped 13%.
North America is stuck in the slow lane
Things aren’t looking quite as bright in North America. EV sales in the US, Canada, and Mexico are up just 3% so far this year.
Mexico is the one bright spot, with a 20% boost. The US is up 6%. But Canada is down a whopping 23%.
And things could get bumpier. On July 4, Trump signed Congress’s big bill into law, which axes all the Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credits. Those consumer credits for EVs now officially end on September 30.
Just over half of the EVs sold in the US this year qualified for those credits. Rho Motion predicts a rush in Q3 before the subsidies disappear – and a decline in sales after that.
Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “With Trump’s latest cuts in his ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ the US could struggle to see any growth in the EV market overall in 2025.”
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