All the polling moves that push Reform UK to the top for the first time this week are within the margin of error and the overall picture remains unchanged – with Britain in a new period of three party politics in the polls.
However, the symbolism of Reform UK topping the poll is likely to be seized on by MPs from all parties.
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One in five Tory voters at the last election would now vote for Reform.
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5:19
Is Reform UK winning the ‘bro vote’?
The Tories are likely to be the hardest hit by the poll, having been in third place since YouGov restarted polling after the general election.
The Sky News/YouGov poll also found Kemi Badenoch has slipped behind Nigel Farage when voters are asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the leaders.
Last month, Badenoch has a net favourability rating of -25, but that has now dropped to -29 this month.
This puts her below Farage, who had a net favourability rating of -32 last month, which has now risen to -27 this month.
Image: Kemi Badenoch has fallen behind Nigel Farage in terms of net favourability rating. Pic: PA
Keir Starmer is less popular than both Farage and Badenoch, with his net favourability rating now at -36.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey is much more popular, with his net favourability rating now at -9 – although this is not directly translated across into voting intention.
These figures are likely to restart the debate in the Tory party about whether they should consider merging with Reform UK, something which Badenoch has repeatedly rejected.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer is less popular than both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage. Pic: PA
A total of 43% of those polled who voted Tory in the last general election support a merger, compared with 31% against.
Reform UK voters are more likely to oppose, with 40% against and 31% for.
Sir Keir Starmer has backed his under-fire safeguarding minister to continue leading the government’s efforts to set up a national inquiry into grooming gangs after four survivors demanded her resignation.
The prime minister said on Thursday that Jess Phillips has “devoted vast parts of her life and career” to tackling violence against women and girls, and has “confidence in her”, despite the turmoil that has beset the process.
All four survivors who quit the government’s grooming gangs inquiry panel said they will consider returning to the process if Ms Phillips resigns.
However, five other survivors on the panel have written to Sir Keir to say they will only stay if Ms Phillips remains.
They said she had remained impartial, had listened to feedback and her previous experience to reduce violence against women and girls and her “clear passion and commitment is important to us”.
In contrast to the four who have quit, who accused Ms Phillips of trying to expand the inquiry’s scope beyond grooming gangs, the five said it needs to be widened to focus on child sexual exploitation as a whole to ensure survivors who do not fit “the generalised stereotype” are not excluded.
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In response to the demand for Ms Phillips to quit, Sir Keir said: “The safeguarding minister has huge experience in issues relating to violence against women and girls. She’s devoted vast parts of her life and career to that, and so I do have confidence in her and Louise Casey in leading this project.”
Speaking to ITV Meridian, the prime minister also sought to reassure the victims of grooming, saying: “It’s really important that the national inquiry gets to the truth. All survivors deserve answers to their questions.”
“It is very important that I say to all survivors that I give my personal assurance that this inquiry will go wherever it needs to go, the scope will not be changed.”
It is understood Downing Street has reached out to the four survivors who quit the government’s process this week.
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2:14
Starmer defended Phillips at PMQs on Wednesday
Samantha, one of the survivors who wrote the letter saying they would only stay if Ms Phillips remains, told Sky News: “We shouldn’t be falling apart right now, we should be working together.
“Jess has only ever been fair and honest with us, she’s told us as much as she possibly can within her capacity.
“She’s provided a lot of support over the phone and in-person to a lot of us survivors behind the scenes, which people don’t see about Jess.
“So I do still want her to be part of this inquiry up until the end.”
A government source told Sky News the government will be talking to all survivors on the panel about their concerns and opinions on the type of person they want to chair the inquiry, after the leading candidate dropped out following concerns from survivors over his background as a police officer.
The government will move as fast as possible, they said, but it will likely take months to appoint the right chair.
Why four survivors quit the inquiry
The four women who resigned this week expressed concerns about how the process of selecting a chair and setting the terms of reference of the national inquiry into grooming gangs is being run.
They wrote on Wednesday to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, calling for Ms Phillips to step down and all survivors to be consulted on appointing a senior judge as chair with no major conflicts of interest.
Ms Phillips told parliament on Tuesday that suggestions that the scope of the inquiry was to be expanded from just grooming gangs were “categorically untrue”.
But leaked consultation documents and texts between the safeguarding minister and survivor Fiona Goddard show the survivors’ concerns that the scope would be expanded were valid.
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10:14
Shadow Housing Secretary Sir James Cleverly told Sky News that he can’t see how Jess Phillips can stay in post
The survivors’ letter says: “Being publicly contradicted and dismissed by a government minister when you are a survivor telling the truth takes you right back to that feeling of not being believed all over again.
“It is a betrayal that has destroyed what little trust remained.”
They have demanded that the scope of the inquiry remain “laser-focused” on grooming gangs and called for victims to be free to speak to support networks without fear of reprisal.
Image: Fiona Goddard and Kemi Badenoch speaking during a press conference earlier this year
Pic PA
The letter to Ms Mahmood says: “Her [Ms Phillips’] conduct over the last week has shown she is unfit to oversee a process that requires survivors to trust the government. Her departure would signal you are serious about accountability and changing direction.”
The survivors describe their demands as “the absolute bare minimum for survivors to trust that this inquiry will be different from every other process that has let us down”.
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7:02
Minister for Children and Families, Josh MacAlister told Sky News Jess Phillips will not be resigning
Frontrunner quits over ‘toxicity’
The letter was sent hours after one of the frontrunners to become chair of the inquiry withdrew, blaming “vested interests” and “political opportunism and point-scoring”.
Ex-police chief and child protection specialist Jim Gamble told the home secretary in a letter there was a “highly charged and toxic environment” around the appointment process and victims “deserve better”.
The other, Annie Hudson, a former social worker, said earlier this week she no longer wanted to be considered after intense media coverage.
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18:19
‘Everyone should park their interests’
The prime minister launched the inquiry into grooming gangs after an audit by Baroness Louise Casey showed the scale of the problem.
It is understood that the government is exploring a range of other candidates and will provide an update in due course.
A Home Office spokesperson said: “The grooming gang scandal was one of the darkest moments in this country’s history.
“That is why this government is committed to a full, statutory, national inquiry to uncover the truth. It is the very least that the victims of these hideous crimes deserve.
“We are disappointed that candidates to chair that inquiry have withdrawn. This is an extremely sensitive topic, and we have to take the time to appoint the best person suitable for the role.
“The home secretary has been clear – there will be no hiding place for those who abused the most vulnerable in our society.”