Amazon hit by strengthening dollar, underscoring risks in tech to overseas reliance
CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Via Reuters
The strengthening dollar is posing challenges for the biggest U.S. tech companies, which have become increasingly reliant on overseas revenue. With other currencies weakening, money made elsewhere is worth less when converted into dollars.
Amazon should suffer less than its megacap peers as the e-commerce giant generates a higher percentage of sales in the U.S. However, in its fourth-quarter earnings report on Thursday, Amazon said foreign exchange rates are to blame for the company’s weaker-than-expected first-quarter forecast and the possibility of its slowest revenue growth on record.
Revenue in the current quarter will land between $151 billion and $155.5 billion, suggesting annual growth of just 5% to 9%. Amazon’s slowest quarter for growth came in mid-2022, when revenue increased by 7.2%.
“This guidance anticipates an unusually large, unfavorable impact of approximately $2.1 billion, or 150 basis points, from foreign exchange rates,” Amazon said in the earnings release.
On its earnings call that followed, Amazon said it saw $700 million “more of foreign exchange headwind than we anticipated” in the fourth quarter. During the period, international revenue totaled $43.4 billion, or 23% of overall sales.
At Apple, roughly 58% of revenue came from overseas in the latest period. For Meta, it was 55%, Alphabet reported about 52%, Microsoft slightly under 50% and Tesla just over 50% for all of 2024.
The U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback against a basket of rivals — hit its highest level in more than two years last month, ahead of President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The dollar climbed steadily from late November through mid-January and has since fallen slightly.
The dollar may be particularly volatile in the coming weeks and months due to uncertainties surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and the threat of a trade war, most notably China, along with a lack of clarity about U.S. foreign policy, given comments Trump has made about potentially trying to take over Greenland and Gaza.
Here’s what other companies had to say on the topic of foreign exchange in issuing their financial results.
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said foreign exchange did “not have a significant impact on our results and was roughly in line with expectation,” though for the current quarter it would bring down revenue growth by “more than 1 point.”
Susan Li, Meta’s finance chief, said the company expects “a three-point headwind in Q1” after foreign exchange “approximately neutral to revenue in Q4, just with the dollar strengthening, in particular against the euro.”
Alphabet CFO Anat Ashkenazi said investors can “expect a larger headwind to our revenues from the strengthening of the U.S. dollar relative to key currencies in Q1 versus Q4 2024.”
Apple finance chief Kevan Parekh warned last week that, “As the dollar strengthens significantly, we expect foreign exchange to be a headwind and to have a negative impact on revenue of about 2.5 percentage points on a year-over-year basis.”
The rise of the dollar will lead investors to pay close attention to job numbers out on Friday. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payrolls count for January, it’s projected to show growth of 169,000, down from 256,000 in December, but nearly in line with the past three-month average. The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 4.1%, according to the Dow Jones consensus for the report.
After that, the the tech industry will wait to see what Nvidia has to say about foreign exchange when the chipmaker reports earnings later in February. In the period ending in October, Nvidia generated about 58% of its revenue from outside the U.S.
— CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa contributed to this report
WATCH: Why a stronger dollar could spell trouble for Big Tech
Technology
Blip, dip, pullback or the beginning of the end? Global investors weigh in on stock sell-off
Global investor sentiment for artificial intelligence remains buoyant, despite on the ongoing stock sell-off.
European and Asia markets have seen days of consecutive losses, tracking their U.S. counterparts lower as pressures mount on AI-related stocks and their valuations. The pan-European Stoxx 600 on Tuesday notched its lowest level in a month, with major bourses opening mixed on Wednesday, while Asia-Pacific markets fell.
Stateside, stock futures were little changed overnight after major U.S. indexes extended their losses. AI-related stocks such as Nvidia, Palantir, and Microsoft are among those feeling the pressure.
“We do think this is an AI specific pullback. We don’t think this is the beginning of the bear market,” Emma Wall, head of investment analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
When considering whether this is the “beginning of the end” or a moment marking “the big pullback,” Wall argued that while we are overdue a “major global market correction,” the current downturn is yet to bring this shift.
Many markets outside of the U.S. — particularly in Europe and the U.K. — already reflect much of the negative news, she said, adding that she sees the pressure as sector specific.
It is, however, an opportunity to rebalance portfolios, as “even taking into consideration this week, most people have had a really good run, even in AI stocks,” Wall said.
Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, echoed this sentiment. He said markets have been in a correction for the past six weeks but “it’s not the end of the AI cycle.”
All eyes are on Nvidia, considered the bellwether of AI, as it’s due to post third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday.
“Whatever happens tonight is, if it is a blip, is a pullback, it’s probably a dip to be bought. But I think we are in the midst of somewhat of a correction right now,” Wilson told CNBC’s “Inside India,” adding that he thinks it’s the middle-inning.
“The credit part of this spending is just beginning, meaning we’re just starting to raise money in the credit markets. It’s not like that money is going to sit there and they’re not going to spend it, which means there’s probably time on the clock with these intermittent kind of pullbacks,” he added.
Companies and investors are engaged in a delicate dance.
On one side, AI labs and their partners are making big promises and aggressive plays, according to Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle. “But it’s not incumbent upon investors to believe them,” he told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum, from the firm’s annual conference.
“Investors, of course, have to ensure that they are getting compensated for the risk that things don’t work out quite as planned, and I think that there’s a sense that perhaps there’s been some assets in the space that have been priced to best case scenarios. So I think that that’s the reassessment that’s going on right now,” he said.
Hyperscalers’ rising capex
The sell-off comes as the pace of debt dealmaking picks up, fueling speculation that it may have unsettled investors, many of whom have remained bullish on AI as long as companies post sound earnings. Google-owner Alphabet and Meta have issued bonds, for example.
“It’s not a problem, as long as the funding markets are there, meaning they’re raising the debt,” Wilson added. “I mean, there’s investors lined up,” he said.
It does however, become a problem when this is no longer the case, but “we haven’t seen that yet,” he said.
AI has fundamentally changed the strategy for many Big Tech firms, particularly when it comes to U.S. hyperscalers, which have morphed into capex-heavy companies from once asset-light businesses. Global investors are now assessing this new dynamic. Bank of America‘s latest Global Fund Managers Survey found that, for the first time in two decades, fund managers are concerned about hyperscalers “overinvesting.“
“[Hyperscalers] traded at very high price-to-book ratios, which made a lot of sense. You don’t value a money-printing machine based on the cost of the paper or based on the cost of the printing press. And that’s essentially what they were, these massive money printing machines where most of their assets were intangible, proprietary technology, the digital platforms,” said Carlyle’s Thomas.
“Now they’ve actually started to invest so much that 70% of their cash flow is being consumed by capital spending and, if you look at their book value now, 70% actually consists of property, plant and equipment, largely data centers. That’s a four-fold increase from a decade ago,” he added.
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