The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging
Piles of coal waiting to be transported at Guoyuan Port container terminal in Chongqing, China.
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images
The world won’t be able to release its grip on coal anytime soon.
“Nothing can destroy coal,” U.S. President Donald Trump said at the recent World Economic Forum. “Not the weather, not a bomb.”
U.S. exports of coal have been rising steadily to satisfy growing global demand for the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel, even though its domestic consumption has decreased.
On top of that, the world’s coal capacity reached a new record high of nearly 2,175 gigawatts in 2024, data from Global Energy Monitor showed on Feb. 6. Coal capacity is the overall power output that can be generated from coal-fired power plants.
“The global shift away from coal remains challenging, largely driven by rising demand in Asia, even as Europe and the U.S. see significant declines in coal consumption,” said Dorothy Mei, project manager for Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Mine Tracker.
Global coal demand is also expected to have breached another fresh record high of 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, and will remain at similar levels until 2027, the International Energy Agency predicted.
The main culprits?
China recently reported that its coal imports surged 14.4% to a record high in 2024, amounting to 542.7 million metric tons compared with 474.42 million tons the year before.
The world’s second largest economy is also the largest coal consumer globally, accounting for more than 56% of global demand in 2023, latest figures by IEA showed.
China’s record-high coal stockpiling strategy is largely geared toward preparing the country for potential power shortages caused by extreme weather events, said Mei.
There is little focus on using energy efficiently, when coal is so cheap.
Dave Jones
Ember Energy
Hydropower, wind and solar energy made up almost 30% of China’s electricity mix in 2023, data from energy think tank Ember Energy showed. When hydropower output drops as a result of insufficient rainfall, the Chinese government often relies on coal power to ensure energy security, Mei added.
“Additionally, another major barrier is not the availability of renewable energy infrastructure, but the difficulty of transmitting solar and wind power across provinces,” she said, adding that coal will continue to be a “critical energy backbone” in China until grid integration and management is fully developed across the entire country.
In India, climate-induced extreme heat has led to soaring energy demand for cooling, and clean energy sources are not built fast enough to meet the country’s growing power demand, said Mei.
India’s focus on economic and infrastructure development has also boosted the consumption of cement and steel, industries that are heavily reliant on coal, according to analysts CNBC spoke to.
The South Asian nation’s demand for steel is set to grow by 8-9% in 2025, outpacing that of other economies, owing to a pickup in steel-intensive construction in the infrastructure and residential sectors, data from consulting firm Crisil showed.
As recently as last December, India extended its directive for imported coal-based power plants to run at full capacity until Feb. 28.
But that’s not to say that India has been neglecting its renewable energy targets. The country has set an ambitious goal of fulfilling 50% of its electricity needs through renewable energy by 2030. And it has made progress. And as of last October, renewables account for more than 46.3% of the country’s electricity generation capacity, according to India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.
Beyond China and India
Outside of India and China, other top countries building new coal plants are Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam, Global Energy Monitor noted.
Vietnam is expected to have surpassed Taiwan as the world’s fifth largest importer of coal, after the country’s coal imports reached a record high in more than a decade last year.
Indonesia’s coal production rose to around 831 million tons to notch a fresh high last year, data from the country’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources showed.
And the share of coal in Philippines’ electricity mix surpassed that of China in 2023, becoming Southeast Asia’s most coal-dependent country, Ember Energy reported.
“There is little focus on using energy efficiently, when coal is so cheap,” said Dave Jones, an electricity analyst at energy think tank Ember Energy.
Strong coal demand in Asia across the board is also partly a consequence of the surge in gas prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, given that a number of major thermal coal importers like China, India and Vietnam had scaled back plans for gas-based power buildouts following the high gas prices that ensued, said Ian Roper, commodity strategist at Astris Advisory Japan KK.
The AI factor
Global electricity consumption is expected to keep rising in 2025, the IEA said.
“The world needs more energy, and it needs it now,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. “For the global economy to grow, it needs efficient, cost-effective, and reliable energy supply sources,” he told CNBC.
Artificial intelligence has also accelerated the world’s need for energy. Reports have shown that power needs driven by data centers around the world will also prolong the demand for coal.
“The U.S., China and the world are in a race for AI superiority,” said Tim Winter, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. AI data centers are huge power users, making it harder to retire a reliable and affordable energy source such as coal, he explained.
By 2030, electricity demand from data centers could exceed 35 GW, more than double the 17 GW recorded in 2022, a report by Moody’s Ratings showed.
Is the energy transition still possible?
With global electricity demand rising faster, other industry watchers are beginning to echo IEA’s forecasts of coal demand remaining at all-time highs.
“There can be no transition when the demand for oil, for natural gas, for coal, continues to hit record highs,” said Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners.
Governments agreed in the 2015 Paris climate accord to limit global heating to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is estimated that emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.
Others are less pessimistic, though they recognized the challenge of reaching those targets in time.
An ongoing pledge toward renewables, alongside a looming surge in global LNG supply may ensure that coal imports continue to weaken in some coal-importing markets, said Roper, who noted that coal consumption has been falling in Europe and Northeast Asia in recent years.
Additionally, if countries commit to its promises of tripling renewables by 2030, coal could start to see a meaningful decline in this decade, said Ember Energy’s Jones.
Environment
Trump targets solar and wind with tighter federal permitting in another blow to renewable industry
Lucid Motors’ (LCID) shares soared over 50% after the company secured a multi-hundred-million dollar investment from Uber to deploy robotaxis. So, why did Lucid just announce plans for a reverse stock split?
Why did Lucid announce a reverse stock split?
Lucid and Uber announced a new alliance on Thursday to deploy 20,000 electric robotaxis over the next six years.
The new robotaxi service, set to launch next year, will combine Lucid’s advanced software-defined EV platform with Nuro’s Level 4 self-driving tech.
As part of the new alliance, Uber plans to make “multi-hundred-million-dollar investments” in Lucid and Nuro. The first autonomous prototype is already in operation on a closed track at Nuro’s facility in Las Vegas.
Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, said, “This investment from Uber further validates Lucid’s fully redundant zonal architecture and highly capable platform as ideal for autonomous vehicles.” Winteroff claimed that the new alliance “is the start of our path to extend our innovation and technology leadership into this multi-trillion-dollar market.”
The Lucid Gravity boasts an impressive EPA-estimated range of 450 miles. Its electric sedan, the Lucid Air, just broke a Guinness World Record after traveling 749 miles (1,205 km) on a single charge.
Lucid’s partnership with Uber sent share prices surging over 50% during trading hours on Thursday. In a separate filing with the SEC today, Lucid announced plans to initiate a 1-for-10 reverse stock split.
The split won’t affect shareholder ownership, except in cases where fractional shares are created. In that case, shareholders will receive a cash payment.
Lucid said it believes the reverse stock split “will allow the company’s common stock to be more attractive to a broader range of investors and other market participants.”
A vote of confidence
During an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, Winterhoff explained that a portion of the $300 million investment from Uber will be used to develop the self-driving tech with Nuro. Winterhoff added that Lucid’s surging share price was “a vote of confidence.”
According to Winterhoff, the reverse stock split is not due to Lucid’s fear of being delisted, but rather to attract larger investors.
It was also more of a “technical” strategy to reduce volatility and help Lucid participate in the broader stock market.
Many institutional investors avoid stocks priced below $5 due to the higher risk and price swings. The proposed stock split still requires shareholder approval, which will be voted on at an upcoming special stockholders’ meeting.
After that, Lucid’s Board of Directors will determine whether it’s still in the best interest of the company and its stockholders to proceed.
Lucid’s stock rose over 36% on Thursday, closing at $3.12 per share. Although shares of LCID are up just slightly (+2%), they are now up year-to-date. However, they are still down 18% over the past year and nearly 95% from their all-time high of over $58 a share in February 2021.
Last week, after meeting with Lucid’s CFO, Taoufiq Boussaid, Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg set a target share price of $5.00, which was subsequently raised to $7.00 following the announcement of the Uber partnership.
Legg wrote a note to investors, “After meeting with LCID’s CFO Taoufiq Boussaid on Tuesday and reviewing 2Q production and deliveries, we remain confident in the company’s path to scale.”
Lucid delivered a record 3,309 vehicles in Q2, its seventh straight quarter with higher deliveries. The company aims to produce 20,000 vehicles this year, more than double the roughly 9,000 it made in 2024.
After ending the first quarter with $5.76 billion in liquidity, Lucid said that it has sufficient funding to last until the second half of 2026, when it plans to launch its more affordable midsize EV platform. The first two models will be a midsize SUV and sedan, starting at about $50,000.
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IONNA, the EV charging joint venture backed by eight automakers – BMW, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Toyota – just announced its biggest charging deal yet. It’s teaming up with convenience store favorite Wawa to roll out ultra-fast EV chargers at locations across the US.
The first site opens next week at Wawa’s W. International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida. More Rechargeries (yup, that’s what IONNA calls them) are already under construction in Bradenton, Pensacola, and Orlando. The partnership will be a big boost to both IONNA’s national charging goals and Wawa’s growing EV infrastructure.
The Daytona Beach Wawa will feature IONNA’s blue-and-orange 400kW Genuine Charge Dispensers, canopy coverage, car care essentials, and, of course, access to Wawa’s refreshments and restrooms.
“Next week’s opening of the IONNA Rechargery at Wawa in Daytona Beach will bring our total bay count to 212 live and 3,064 contracted. That is over 10% contracted to our 2030 live bay goal in just over a year,” said IONNA CEO Seth Cutler.
Wawa’s chief fuel officer, Rich Makin, added, “With an ongoing commitment to providing our customers with speed and convenience, our new collaboration with IONNA does just that.”
IONNA aims to install 30,000 fast charging bays across North America by 2030.
Read more: Waffle House is getting DC fast chargers – and it’s a genius move
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