Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs target a deeper issue – but risk job losses and higher prices
Few materials matter quite as much as steel and aluminium.
Steel, an alloy of iron and carbon, is the main metallic ingredient in the structures we live in and the bridges we build. If it’s not made of steel it’s made with steel.
Aluminium, on the other hand, is a wonder material we use with wild abandon these days. A light metal we use in planes and trains, in the bodies of electric vehicles and in those high voltage power lines we’ll need so many of to provide electricity in the coming years.
Money blog: The 10 jobs crying out for applicants
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Prices to rise for planes, trains and automobiles
All of which is to say these metals are the bedrock for much of the world around us. And like most developed economies, the US is far from independent when it comes to these materials. The degree of dependence on other countries varies between them.
According to the US Geological Survey, America’s “net import reliance ratio” for aluminium is close to 50%, implying it is deeply dependent on imports to satisfy demand among its companies. The degree of dependence is considerably lower for steel – only a little over 10%.
At least part of the idea behind tariffs is to bring some production back to the US, but imposing them will have consequences.
Molten aluminium. Pic: Reuters
What kinds of consequences? Well, at its simplest, tariffs push up prices. This is, when you think about it, blindingly obvious. A tariff is a tax on a good entering the country. So if aluminium and steel are going up in price then that means, all else equal, that the cost of making everything from aircraft wings to steel rivets also goes up. That in turn means consumers end up paying the price – and if a company can’t make ends meet in the face of these tariffs, it means job losses – possibly within the very industrial sectors the president wants to protect.
Donald Trump stands on stage with steelworkers as he speaks at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania during the US election. Pic: AP
So says the economic theory. But in practice, economics isn’t everything. There are countless examples throughout history of countries defying economic logic in search of other goals. Perhaps they want to improve their national self-reliance in a given product; perhaps they want to ensure certain jobs in cherished areas or industries are protected. But nothing comes for free, and even if Donald Trump‘s tariffs succeed in persuading domestic producers to smelt more aluminium or steel, such things don’t happen overnight. In the short run, it’s hard to see how these tariffs wouldn’t be significantly inflationary.
Donald Trump on Air Force One: Reuters
There’s a deeper issue here, which comes back (as so many of Mr Trump’s economic measures do) to China. Both the steel and aluminium markets have faced enormous influxes of cheap Chinese metals in recent years – to the extent that in recent months those Chinese imports have actually been cheaper than the cost of production in Europe.
To some extent, that’s a consequence of high European energy costs, but it’s partly down to the fact that China subsidises its producers more than most other countries around the world. Indeed, of all the products in the world, few have had as many cases lodged at the World Trade Organisation as steel.
Read more:
Why China could benefit most from Trump’s tariffs
Tax hikes and financial gloom ‘acting as brakes’ on jobs
Donald Trump shakes hands with China’s President Xi Jinping in 2019 – as in his first term, many of his policies focus on China. Pic: AP
But while it’s worth being aware of these dynamics, which are pushing cheap steel into many markets, it’s also worth noting that the US actually imports far less from China than you might have thought. The vast majority of American aluminium imports, for instance, come from Canada rather than China. Any tariffs on the metal would further undermine the economic relationship between these parts of North America.
Much, of course, now depends on the structure and detail of these tariffs – and the extent to which they’re actually implemented. As with his threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico, these ones raise as many questions as they answer. That is likely to be the way of things for much of this presidential term.
Thousands of job cuts at the NHS will go ahead after the £1bn needed to fund the redundancies was approved by the Treasury.
The government had already announced its intention to slash the headcount across both NHS England and the Department of Health by around 18,000 administrative staff and managers, including on local health boards.
The move is designed to remove “unnecessary bureaucracy” and raise £1bn a year by the end of the parliament to improve services for patients by freeing up more cash for operations.
NHS England, the Department of Health and Social Care, and the Treasury had been in talks over how to pay for the £1bn one-off bill for redundancies.
It is understood the Treasury has not granted additional funding for the departures over and above the NHS’s current cash settlement, but the NHS will be permitted to overspend its budget this year to pay for redundancies, recouping the costs further down the line.
‘Every penny will be spent wisely’
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to make further announcements regarding the health service in the budget on 26 November.
And addressing the NHS providers’ annual conference in Manchester today, Mr Streeting is expected to say the government will be “protecting investment in the NHS”.
He will add: “I want to reassure taxpayers that every penny they are being asked to pay will be spent wisely.
“Our investment to offer more services at evenings and weekends, arm staff with modern technology, and improving staff retention is working.
“At the same time, cuts to wasteful spending on things like recruitment agencies saw productivity grow by 2.4% in the most recent figures – we are getting better bang for our buck.”
Health Secretary Wes Streeting during a visit to the NHS National Operations Centre in London earlier this year. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s speech is due to be given just hours after he became entrenched in rumours of a possible coup attempt against Sir Keir Starmer, whose poll ratings have plummeted ahead of what’s set to be a tough budget.
Mr Streeting’s spokesperson was forced to deny he was doing anything other than concentrating on the health service.
Read more from Sky News:
Russian troops in Mad Max-style video
Shamima Begum ‘should be repatriated’
He is also expected on Wednesday to give NHS leaders the go-ahead for a 50% cut to headcounts in Integrated Care Boards, which plan health services for specific regions.
They have been tasked with transforming the NHS into a neighbourhood health service – as set down in the government’s long-term plans for the NHS.
Those include abolishing NHS England, which will be brought back into the health department within two years.
Watch Wes Streeting on Mornings With Ridge And Frost from 7am on Sky News.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024