Ukraine has ramped up long-range drone strikes into Russia, targeting oil facilities that fuel warplanes, ships and military vehicles as well as oil refineries that help power the economy.
An increase in the intensity of the attacks appears to have started in December, continued through the whole of January and is still being maintained into February, according to analysis of drone strikes confirmed by the Ukrainian armed forces and security services.
Other attacks have also been reported but not officially acknowledged by Kyiv.
A Ukrainian intelligence source said Ukraine has “significantly increased” the production of drones to attack Russia as well as improving their accuracy and range. “This increase will continue,” they said.
Preventing Russian oil from powering Vladimir Putin‘s war machine was an important goal, according to the source, who asked to speak anonymously for security reasons.
“If this oil has not reached the combat zone, it is definitely a successful operation, and we will continue to strike,” the source said.
A Western security source said that the strikes were also aimed at reducing Russia’s ability to export oil, amplifying the impact of Western sanctions against Russian energy and increasing the cost for the Russian president of conducting his war against Ukraine.
Asked about the drone strikes, Andriy Yermak, the head of Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s presidential office, told Sky News: “The only way to force Russia into peace is through strength. And that is crucial for the safety of people everywhere.
“For this reason, Ukraine will continue increasing strikes on Russian military targets – warehouses, factories, and airfields.”
Image: One of Ukraine’s tactics has been to hit the same oil facility twice in a short space of time
Tracking the tempo of drone strikes
Sky News’ Data and Forensic Unit tracked the tempo of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil depots and other facilities linked to oil production over the past three months.
The analysis shows a clear rise in the number of strikes and an apparent increase in Ukraine’s drone capability, with unmanned aircraft – operated by a combination of specialist units – hitting targets hundreds of miles into Russian territory in defiance of air defences.
Images released by the Ukrainian General Staff to accompany various announcements purport to show fires blazing into the night sky in the wake of the different strikes.
In November, the Ukrainian armed forces publicly claimed to have carried out just two attacks linked to oil sites and two more against military targets, all inside Russia. The following month, that number rose to four confirmed drone operations against oil-related targets and a fifth against a military facility.
In January, however, the Ukrainian military publicly claimed responsibility for 13 strikes against oil-linked facilities across Russia and another attack against a microelectronics plant.
There have already been another four strikes on Russian oil facilities so far this month – including an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai seen on fire last week.
Three of January’s oil targets were each hit twice – seemingly a tactic to inflict greater damage.
Ryazan attack
One of the most significant double attacks was against an oil refinery in the central Russian region of Ryazan – more than 300 miles from the Ukrainian border.
It is one of the four largest refineries in Russia and produces fuel for military equipment, including jet fuel, diesel fuel and other petroleum products for tanks, aircraft, and ships.
Ukraine said its drones struck the site on the night of 24 January and again overnight on 25 January. The video below shows the plant on fire after the first attack.
“Combat work on… important objects involved in securing the army of Russian aggressors will continue,” the Ukrainian military said in a Facebook post at the time. The attacks reportedly forced the refinery – which accounts for about 5% of Russia’s total refining output – to suspend operations.
Kristall attack
Another target deemed important enough to strike twice was the Kristall oil depot. It provides fuel to the airbase where Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is located in the city of Engels, almost 400 miles from the Ukrainian border.
Ukrainian drones first struck the site on 8 January, triggering a fire that burnt for five days – at which point the depot was hit again.
Satellite imagery from before and after the operations reveal what appears to be damage to a number of white storage tanks, with some quite heavily impacted and others partially burnt.
Damage against oil facilities creates “serious logistical problems for Russian occupiers’ strategic aviation and significantly reduces their ability to strike peaceful Ukrainian cities and civilian objects”, Ukraine’s military said in a Facebook post.
Liskinska attack
The third double strike in January occurred against the Liskinska oil depot in the Voronezh region of western Russia, which the Ukrainian military said is also used to provide fuel for Russian military operations.
The first attack happened overnight on 16 January. “A large-scale fire broke out at the facility. It is known that the oil base stored fuel, which, in particular, was used to provide the needs of the Russian occupation army,” Ukraine’s military said in another Facebook post.
The military’s General Staff also posts about its attacks on the social media site X, previously known as Twitter. The depot was hit again on 21 January. Before and after satellite imagery shows clear fire damage to oil infrastructure.
There has been no let up in the tempo of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil targets into February – with a fourth location also hit twice.
Volgograd attack
The initial strike happened at the end of January, with drones targeting the Lukoil-Volgograd oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region – one of the country’s 10 largest refineries, which is also a key supplier to the Russian armed forces.
Volgograd is in southwestern Russia, more than 200 miles from the Ukrainian border.
“Flashes and explosions have been recorded in the area of this plant that is important to occupants,” Ukraine’s General Staff said in a Facebook post. The military reported a second strike on the site on 3 February.
Despite Ukraine’s success at striking deep into Russia, analysts appear divided for now about the impact of the operation.
Russian aviation sector ‘struggling’
Isaac Levy, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said the Ukrainian attacks were pushing up domestic fuel prices and affecting the armed forces.
“The Russian aviation sector is struggling to attain enough of its oil products used to fly those bomber jets that drop missiles back on Ukraine, so that is creating an issue for the Russian military,” he said.
However, Clay Seigle, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the overall economic effect has so far been muted.
“The Ukrainian, drone systems have a very long range, and they also have very impressive precision guidance,” he said. “The thing that they’re lacking, though, is the military-grade explosive power that would put real damage to those refinery units.”
“Complete families were wiped off the civil registration record by Israeli bombardment,” Khalil Al-Deqran, Gaza health ministry spokesperson, told the Reuters news agency.
Nasser hospital, in the southern city of Khan Younis, said it received the bodies of 20 people killed in strikes that hit houses and tents in the Muwasi area. Hamas described that as a “new brutal crime”.
Image: Smoking debris after an airstrike at a tent camp in Khan Younis, southern Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
Image: Saleh Zenati carries the body of his nephew killed in Khan Younis on Sunday. Pic: AP
In central Gaza, at least 10 people were killed in two separate strikes, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in the town of Deir al Balah.
Meanwhile, first responders from the health ministry and the civil defence reported at least 36 people were killed in multiple strikes in Jabalia, northern Gaza.
The Israeli military had no immediate comment on the latest strikes.
Israel has blocked the entry of medical, food and fuel supplies into Gaza since the start of March. It is attempting to pressurise Hamas into freeing Israeli hostages and has approved plans that could involve seizing the whole of Gaza and controlling aid.
It comes as peace talks between Israel and Hamas take place in Qatar this weekend, although sources told Reuters there had been no breakthrough.
Sky News Arabia reported that Hamas had proposed freeing about half its Israeli hostages in exchange for a two-month ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
A Palestinian official close to the talks said: “Hamas is flexible about the number of hostages it can free, but the problem has always been over Israel’s commitment to end the war.”
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3:14
On Saturday, Israel ramped up attacks on Gaza
Earlier on Sunday, Gaza’s health ministry issued a statement accusing Israel of “intensifying its systematic campaign to target hospitals”.
“After putting the European Gaza Hospital out of service a few days ago, the Israeli occupation has intensified its targeting and siege of the Indonesian Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip since dawn today,” it added.
Israel has previously denied deliberately targeting civilians and accused Hamas of using hospitals for military purposes.
This week, Israel said it had bombed the European Hospital because it was home to an underground Hamas base, but Sky News analysis has cast doubt on its evidence.
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0:49
Mass protests on Saturday mark 77 years since the Nakba
Separately, the Israeli military said on Sunday it had intercepted a missile launched from Yemen toward Israel.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they had targeted Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv with two ballistic missiles.
The Houthis have fired at Israel because of the plight of Palestinians in Gaza, while Israel has carried out airstrikes in response, including one on 6 May that damaged Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa and killed several people.
The conflict began on 7 October 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and abducting 251 others.
Israel’s military response has seen the deaths of more than 53,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, which doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Donald Trump has said he will speak to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy separately on Monday in a bid to secure a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine.
The US president made the announcement on Truth Social – shortly after the Ukrainian president condemned Russiafor the “deliberate killing of civilians” after a drone hit a bus in north-eastern Ukraine.
Mr Trump said he will speak to Mr Putin over the phone. He will then talk with Mr Zelenskyy and “various members of NATO”, he wrote.
In an all-caps post, he said: “HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE A PRODUCTIVE DAY, A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END. GOD BLESS US ALL!!!”
The Ukrainian town of Bilopillia today declared a period of mourning lasting until Monday after nine people were killed in a Russian drone attack – which occurred just hours after Kyiv and Moscow held peace talks.
Seven others were injured, Ukrainian authorities said. The bus was evacuating civilians from a frontline area when the drone hit, the country’s national police said.
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0:41
Nine killed in Russian strike on bus
A “father, mother and daughter” were among the dead, Mr Zelenskyy said, writing on Telegram: “All the deceased were civilians. And the Russians could not have failed to understand what kind of vehicle they were targeting.”
The attack has also been condemned by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who said he was “appalled”.
“If Putin is serious about peace, Russia must agree to a full and immediate ceasefire, as Ukraine has done,” he wrote on X.
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While the discussions – which were not attended by the Mr Putin or Mr Zelenskyy – did not result in a truce, both countries agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners in their biggest swap yet.
Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said on national television the exchange could happen as early as next week.
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1:52
What happened at Ukraine talks?
Russia ‘threatened eternal war’ at peace talks
After a Ukrainian official yesterday said Russia made “unacceptable” demands during the discussions, a source from the Kyiv delegation has now told Sky News that Moscow threatened “eternal war”.
Separately, a senior Kyiv official said Russia’s proposed ceasefire terms included the full withdrawal of troops from four regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Luhansk.
Moscow also called for international recognition that those regions and Crimea – annexed in 2014 – are Russian and for Ukraine to become a neutral state, with no allied troops stationed there, they said.
Ukraine has rallied support from its allies following the talks, and a number have spoken out.
French President Emmanuel Macron said: “Today, what do we have? Nothing. And so I tell you, faced with President Putin’s cynicism, I am sure that President Trump, mindful of the credibility of the United States, will react.”
The EU is working on a new package of sanctions against Moscow, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
Israel and Hamas said ceasefire talks have resumed in Qatar – even as Israeli forces ramped up a bombing campaign and mobilised for a massive new ground assault.
Earlier, the Israeli military said it had been “conducting extensive strikes and mobilising troops” as part of preparations to expand operations in Gaza.
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said Hamas had “refused to discuss negotiations without a cessation of the war”, but after the airstrikes and the mobilisation of forces the militant group’s representatives “have agreed to sit in a room and seriously discuss the deal”.
“Israel emphasises that if the talks do not progress, the [military] operation will continue,” he added.
A Hamas source told Sky News that ceasefire talks began in Doha on Saturday morning.
Image: Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Jabalia. Pic: Reuters
Image: Tents were targeted in an airstrike on Saturday at al Aqsa Hospital in Deir al Balah in central Gaza. Pic: AP
Hamas official Taher al-Nono told Reuters news agency that the two sides were involved in discussions without “pre-conditions”.
He added Hamas was “keen to exert all the effort needed” to help mediators make the negotiations a success.
More than 150 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
The Israeli military’s preparations to expand operations in Gaza have included the build-up of tanks and troops along the border.
It is part of “Operation Gideon Chariot”, which Israel says is aimed at defeating Hamas and getting its hostages back.
Image: Israeli tanks near the Israel-Gaza border on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Image: An Israeli tank being relocated to a position near the Gaza border on Friday. Pic: AP
An Israeli defence official said earlier this month that the operation would not be launched before Donald Trump concluded his visit to the Middle East.
The US president ended his trip on Friday, with no apparent progress towards a new peace deal.
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3:27
Forensic look at Israel’s escalation
Meanwhile, on Saturday, leaders at the annual summit of the Arab League in Baghdad said they were trying to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
They also promised to contribute to the reconstruction of the territory once the war stops.
The meeting comes two months after Israel ended a ceasefire reached with the Hamas militant group.
Image: A man carrying the body of a child killed in Israeli airstrikes on Friday in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Image: Parts of northern Gaza have been completely destroyed in the bombing campaign. Pic: Reuters
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 5 May that Israel was planning an expanded, intensive offensive against Hamas as his security cabinet approved plans that could involve seizing Gaza and controlling aid.
This week, Israel said it had bombed the European Hospital because it was home to an underground Hamas base, but Sky News analysis has cast doubt on its evidence.
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Israel’s goal is the elimination of Hamas, which attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and seizing about 250 hostages.
Its military response has killed more than 53,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.