Trump tariffs on Canadian oil expected to raise U.S. gasoline prices if enacted next month
A person fills up a fuel tank at a pay-at-the-pump gasoline station in Edmonton, on January 30, 2025, in Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty Images
President Donald Trump‘s threatened tariffs on Canadian crude oil imports could raise gasoline prices for U.S. drivers if the levies are enacted next month, according to major refiners and energy analysts.
Trump issued an executive order on Feb. 1 imposing a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports to the U.S., in addition to sweeping 25% levies on goods from from Canada and Mexico. The tariffs are currently on hold until March 4 after Mexico City and Ottawa reached an agreement with the White House.
Refiners particularly in the Midwest have become reliant on Canadian crude imports despite the fact that the U.S. is the largest oil producer in the world, outpacing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is because Canadian crude is heavier, lower quality and therefore cheaper to purchase, according to Wells Fargo analysts.
Marathon Petroleum processes a significant amount of heavy crude and expects costs to increase if the tariffs on Canadian energy go into effect, CEO Maryann Mannen told investors recently.
“We believe that the majority of that would be borne by the producer and then frankly to a lesser extent the consumer,” Mannen said on the company’s Feb. 4 earnings call. “We’re working with the administration. We’re working with agencies as well as the trade associations to ensure the right people understand the implications of these decisions.”
The U.S. imports nearly 6.6 million barrels per day of crude oil with about 60% coming from Canada, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Midwest refiners in particular are heavily dependent on these imports with 70% of the crude they process into diesel and gasoline coming from Canada, according to Lipow.
How much fuel prices would rise due to the tariffs depends on how Canadian producers and U.S. refiners respond. In general, a 10% tariff passed to the consumer would increase gasoline and diesel prices by about 15 cents per gallon, Lipow said in a Feb. 2 note.
Canadian prime minister candidate Chrystia Freeland, who previously served as finance minister, has warned that oil producers in Canada have alternatives to the U.S. market.
“There is a danger here for the U.S., and that is Canadians are really angry,” Freeland told CNBC in a Feb. 4 interview. “We will retaliate if we have to. You should be glad that you have us as a reliable energy supplier. We do have alternatives.”
U.S. refiners, however, have “few economically and politically viable alternatives” to Canada’s heavy crude, Mason Mendez, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo, told clients in a report Monday. Domestic production could replace some lost Canadian supply but U.S. crude is generally lighter than Canadian oil, Lipow said. Many U.S. refiners have physical limitations on switching totally to light crude oil, he said.
Canadian producers could divert exports from the U.S. East and West Coasts to Europe and Asia instead, Lipow said. This would force U.S. refiners on the East Coast to seek more expensive alternatives in West Africa and West Coast refiners to buy from South America or the Middle East, he said.
In the case of the Midwest, Canada does not have the logistics in place to divert all its exports away from the region, Lipow said. But they would probably try to find other buyers to the extent that they can, he said.
Traders might bid up the price of U.S. crude oil to cover any shortfall in region. Fuel prices might rise by up to 15 cents per gallon as a consequence, Lipow said. But if the tariffs cause local shortages, prices could spike by more than 30 cents per gallon.
The Midwest also does not have easy access to imports through the Gulf Coast because the pipeline system in the U.S. generally runs north to south and west to east, Lipow said.
With few alternatives, U.S. refiners will likely continue to purchase crude from Canada despite the higher cost, Mendez said. They may be able to convince Canadian producers to absorb part of the tariff rather than pass all of it on to the U.S., the analyst said.
“However, even if they split the effects of a 10% tariff, U.S. gasoline prices will likely still rise modestly,” Mendez said.
Environment
EcoFlow members can save up to 65% on power stations while supporting disaster relief during the 2025 Member’s Festival
Portable power station specialist EcoFlow is kicking off its third annual Member’s Festival this month and is offering a unique new rewards program to those who become EcoFlow members. The 2025 EcoFlow Member’s Festival will offer savings of up to 65% for its participating customers, and a portion of those funds will be allocated toward rescue power solutions for communities around the globe through the company’s “Power for All” fund.
EcoFlow remains one of the industry leaders in portable power solutions and continues to trek forward in its vision to power a new tech-driven, eco-conscious future. Per its website:
Our mission from day one is to provide smart and eco-friendly energy solutions for individuals, families, and society at large. We are, were, and will continue to be a reliable and trusted energy companion for users around the world.
To achieve such goals, EcoFlow has continued to expand its portfolio of sustainable energy solutions to its community members, including portable power stations, solar generators, and mountable solar panels. While EcoFlow is doing plenty to support its growing customer base, it has expanded its reach by giving back to disaster-affected communities by helping bolster global disaster response efforts the best way it knows how– with portable power solutions.
EcoFlow and its members look to provide “Power for All”
Since 2023, EcoFlow has collaborated with organizations worldwide as part of its “Power for All” mission. This initiative aims to ensure access to reliable and timely power to disaster-affected communities across the globe, including rescue agencies, affected hospitals, and shelters, to support rescue and recovery efforts.
This fund most recently provided aid for communities affected by the recent Los Angeles wildfires, assistance to the Special Forces Charitable Trust (SFCT) in North Carolina following severe hurricanes, and support for non-profits engaged in hurricane preparedness in Florida and the Gulf Coast. Per Jodi Burns, CEO of the Special Forces Charitable Trust:
In the wake of devastating storms in Western North Carolina, reliable power was a critical need for the families we serve. Thanks to EcoFlow’s generous donation of generators, we were able to provide immediate relief, ensuring these families and their communities had access to power when they needed it most. We are so impressed with EcoFlow’s commitment to disaster response through their ‘Power for All’ program. It has made a tangible impact, and we are deeply grateful for their support and partnership in helping these families recover and rebuild.
In 2024, the US experienced 27 weather and climate events, each causing losses exceeding $1 billion, marking the second-highest annual total on record, according to National Centers for Environmental Information. The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters underscore the critical need for reliable and timely power solutions during emergencies, much like EcoFlow and its members are helping provide through the “Power For All” initiative.
To support new and existing EcoFlow members, the company is celebrating its third annual Member’s Festival throughout April to offer a do-not-miss discount on its products and donate a portion of all sales to the “Power for All” fund to provide rescue power to those in need in the future. Learn how it all works below.
Save big and give back during the 2025 Member’s Festival
As of April 1st, you can now sign up to become an EcoFlow member to participate in the company’s exclusive 2025 Member Festival.
As a member, you can earn “EcoFlow Power Points” by completing tasks like registration, referrals, and product purchases and tracking your individual efforts toward disaster preparedness and recovery.
Beginning April 4, EcoFlow members will also be able to take advantage of exclusive discounts of up to 65% off select portable power stations, including the DELTA Pro Ultra, DELTA Pro 3, DELTA 2 Max, DELTA 3 Plus, RIVER 3 Plus, and more. However, these sale prices only last through April 25, so you’ll want to move quickly!
Click here to learn more about EcoFlow’s “Power for All” campaign. To register for EcoFlow’s 2025 Member Festival in the US, visit the EcoFlow website. To register as a member in Canada, visit here.
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Tesla is losing another top talent: its long-time head of software, David Lau, has reportedly told co-workers that he is exiting the automaker.
Tesla changed how the entire auto industry looks at software.
Before Tesla, it was an afterthought; user interfaces were rudimentary, and you had to go to a dealership to get a software update on your systems.
When Tesla launched the Model S in 2012, it all changed. Your car would get better through software updates like your phone, the large center display was responsive with a UI that actually made sense and was closer to an iPad experience than a car.
Tesla also integrated its software into its retail experience, service, and manufacturing.
David Lau deserves a lot of the credit for that.
He joined Tesla in 2012 as a senior manager of firmware engineering and quickly rose through the ranks. By 2014, he was promoted to director of firmware engineering and system integration, and in 2017, he became Vice President of software.
Lau listed the responsibilities of his team on his LinkedIn:
- Vehicle Software:
- Firmware for the powertrain, traction/stability control, HV electronics, battery management, and body control systems
- UI software and underlying Embedded Linux platforms
- Navigation and routing
- iOS and Android Mobile apps
- Distributed Systems:
- Server-side software and infrastructure that provides telemetry, diagnostics, over-the-air updates, and configuration/lifecycle management
- Data engineering and analytics platforms that power technical and business insights for an increasingly diverse set of customers across the company
- Diagnostic tools and fleet management, Manufacturing and Automation:
- Automation controls (PLC, robot)
- Server-side manufacturing execution systems that power all of Tesla’s production operations
- Product Security and Red Team for software, services, and systems across Tesla
Bloomberg reported today that Lau told his team he is leaving Tesla. The report didn’t include reasons for his stepping down.
Electrek’s Take
Twelve years at any company is a great run. At Tesla, it’s heroic. Congrats, David, on a great run. You undoubtedly had a significant impact on Tesla and software advancements in the broader auto industry.
He is another significant loss for Tesla, which has been losing a lot of top talent following a big wave of layoffs around this time last year.
I wonder who will take over. Michael Rizkalla, senior director of software engineering and vehicle firmware, is one of the most senior software engineers after Lau. He has been at Tesla for 7 years, and Tesla likes to promote within rather than hire outsiders.
There are also a lot of senior software execs working on AI at Tesla. Musk has been favoring them lately and he could fold Lau’s responsibilities under them.
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Kia’s electric SUVs are taking over. The EV3 is the best-selling retail EV in the UK this year, giving Kia its strongest sales start since it arrived 34 years ago. And it’s not just in the UK. Kia just had its best first quarter globally since it started selling cars in 1962.
Kia EV3 is the best-selling EV in the UK through March
In March, Kia sold a record nearly 20,000 vehicles in the UK, making it the fourth best-selling brand. It was also the second top-seller of electrified vehicles (EVs, PHEVs, and HEVs), accounting for over 55% of sales.
The EV3 remained the best-selling retail EV in the UK last month. Including the EV6, three-row EV9, and Niro EV, electric vehicles represented 21% of Kia’s UK sales in March.
Kia said the EV3 “started with a bang” in January, darting out as the UK’s most popular EV in retail sales. Through March, Kia’s electric SUV has held on to the crown. With the EV3 rolling out, Kia sold over 7,000 electric cars through March, nearly 50% more than in Q1 2024.
The EV3 was the best-selling retail EV in the UK in the first quarter and the fourth best-selling EV overall, including commercial vehicles.
Starting at £33,005 ($42,500), Kia said it’s the “brand’s most affordable EV yet.” It’s available with two battery packs, 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh, good for 430 km (270 miles) and 599 km (375 miles) of WLTP range, respectively.
With new EVs on the way, this could be just the start. Kia is launching several new EVs in the UK this year, including the EV4 sedan (and hatchback) and EV5 SUV. It also confirmed that the first PV5 electric vans will be delivered to customers by the end of the year.
Electrek’s Take
Globally, Kia sold a record 772,351 vehicles in the first quarter, its best since it started selling cars in 1962. With the new EV4, the brand’s first electric sedan and hatchback, launching this year, Kia looks to build on its momentum in 2025.
Kia has also made it very clear that it wants to be a global leader in the electric van market with its new Platform Beyond Vehicle (PBV) business, starting with the PV5 later this year.
Earlier today, we learned Kia’s midsize electric SUV, the EV5, is the fourth best-selling EV in Australia through March, outselling every BYD vehicle (at least for now). The EV5 is rolling out to new markets this year, including Canada, the UK, South Korea, and Mexico. However, it will not arrive in the US.
For those in the US, there are still a few Kia EVs to look forward to. Kia is launching the EV4 globally, including in the US, later this year. Although no date has been set, Kia confirmed the EV3 is also coming. It’s expected to arrive in mid-2026.
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