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Taken at face value Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war, that would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.

In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise to address a near trillion dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.

In response, he wants to deploy tariffs as an “external revenue service”, simultaneously easing the US deficit and, so the theory goes, pricing out imports in favour of domestic production.

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With a promise to reestablish industries, from chip production lost to Taiwan, and car and pharmaceutical manufacturing to Europe, he is promising a country-by-country tailored assault on the status quo.

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Donald Trump unveils new tariffs for trading partners

Risk to Britain remains uncertain

His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.

Mexico and Canada, the European Union (whose 10% tariff on US cars is a particular irritation), as well as the ‘BRICS’ nations – Brazil, Russia, India (which imposes 9% tariffs on US imports), China and South Africa.

What it means for the UK will not be certain until the details are revealed in April, but it is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.

To begin with, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK – in a quirk of statistics, the UK thinks it has a surplus too – and Brexit has placed it outside the EU bloc with the ability at least in theory to be more agile.

The UK also imposes direct tariffs on very few US goods following a deal in 2021, brokered by then trade secretary Liz Truss, that removed tariffs on denim and motorcycles bound for Britain, and cashmere and Scotch whisky heading the other way.

But we do add VAT to imports, and Mr Trump’s threat to treat the sales tax as a tariff by another name will chill British exporters.

Read more from Sky News:
Trump wants Russia to return to G7
Fears Ukraine has been ‘betrayed’
Farage explores NatWest legal action

President Donald Trump listens as he meets with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, in Washington. (Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Donald Trump accepts his tariffs will be inflationary for the US. Pic: AP

Tariffs set to raise prices in US

Analysts have estimated tariffs could add 21% to the cost of exports, amounting to a £24bn blow to national income.

Pharmaceuticals, cars, chemicals, scientific instruments and the aerospace industry – the main components of our £182bn US export trade – will all be potentially affected.

But the pain will certainly be shared.

Tariffs are paid by the importer, not the exporter, and even Mr Trump accepts they will be inflationary.

Rising prices on Main Street could yet be the biggest brake on the president’s tariff plan.

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Donald Trump responds after Elon Musk admitted ‘regrets’ over explosive row

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Donald Trump responds after Elon Musk admitted 'regrets' over explosive row

Donald Trump has responded after Elon Musk said some of his recent social media posts about the US president “went too far”.

The Tesla and SpaceX boss shared a series of posts on his X social media platform last week, including one which described Mr Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill as a “disgusting abomination”.

He also claimed, in a since-deleted post, that the president appeared in files relating to the disgraced paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

Posting on X this morning, Mr Musk said: “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.”

In response, the president is quoted as telling the New York Post: “I thought it was very nice that he did that.”

The publication said it spoke to Mr Trump in a brief phone conversation.

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Musk and Trump’s bust-up

The White House dismissed Mr Musk’s Epstein claims at the time, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying: “This is an unfortunate episode from Elon, who is unhappy with the One Big Beautiful Bill [a Republican tax and spending bill] because it does not include the policies he wanted.

“The president is focused on passing this historic piece of legislation and making our country great again.”

Mr Musk did not specify which posts he regretted.

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Could the Musk-Trump fallout stall US space goals?

In another post last Thursday, Mr Musk attacked Mr Trump’s tariffs, saying they “will cause a recession in the second half of this year”.

In response, Mr Trump, in an interview with ABC News, said Mr Musk had “lost his mind”. He also threatened to cancel government contracts with the businessman’s companies and said he had asked the billionaire to leave the White House.

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Trump and Musk’s feud explained

But yesterday, Mr Musk’s father Errol Musk told Sky News’ Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett: “It’s like any argument. Everybody at some point says I’ll never make up, but then they do later.”

He said the argument likely happened because of “emotions welling out of hand”.

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Elon’s dad on the Musk-Trump bust-up

“They’ve had five months of intense day and night, hardly any sleep, and anybody who went through that would know your nerves are pretty much shredded after that time.”

He also said his son had texted him to say: “Don’t worry, we’re sorting it out.”

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The spat hit Tesla shares, which closed down 14.3% last Thursday, losing about $150bn (£111bn) in value.

They’ve since regained much of their value compared to the beginning of the month.

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Los Angeles protests: Curfew comes into force – as California’s governor steps up his attack on Donald Trump

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Los Angeles protests: Curfew comes into force - as California's governor steps up his attack on Donald Trump

A curfew has come into force in Los Angeles as officials attempt to “stop the vandalism and stop the looting”.

Mayor Karen Bass said the restrictions will be in force in downtown areas of the city from 8pm to 6am local time (4am to 2pm UK time) – and will likely be repeated in the coming days.

She confirmed that a local emergency had been declared as “we reached a tipping point”, with 23 businesses looted on Monday night.

Ms Bass said “graffiti is everywhere”, with “significant damage” to properties as a result of the protests.

Workers try to remove graffiti after a protest over immigration raids. ICE Pic: AP/Damian Dovarganes
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Workers try to remove graffiti after a protest over immigration raids. ICE Pic: AP/Damian Dovarganes

Workers remove graffiti from the Ronald Reagan Federal Building in Santa Ana. Pic: Mindy Schauer/The Orange County Register via AP
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Workers remove graffiti from the Ronald Reagan Federal Building in Santa Ana. Pic: Mindy Schauer/The Orange County Register via AP

A protester marches past businesses being boarded up. Pic: Reuters/Leah Millis
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A protester marches past businesses being boarded up. Pic: Reuters/Leah Millis

Jim McDonnell, the chief of the Los Angeles Police Department, described the curfew as a “necessary measure to protect lives” as “unlawful and dangerous behaviour” had been escalating in the last few days.

On Tuesday alone, 197 arrests were made by the force, and he warned anyone violating the curfew without a valid reason would be detained.

Residents, people who are homeless, those travelling to and from work, credited media as well as public safety and emergency personnel, will be exempt from the curfew.

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The curfew covers a one square mile section of downtown LA that includes the area where protests have happened since Friday. The city of Los Angeles encompasses about 500 square miles.

Workers board up a store in Santa Ana. Pic: AP/Jae C. Hong
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Workers board up a store in Santa Ana. Pic: AP/Jae C. Hong

California National Guard soldiers stand at a federal agency building. Pic: AP
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California National Guard soldiers stand at a federal agency building. Pic: AP

Protesters are detained by law enforcement near the federal building in downtown LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer
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Protesters are detained by law enforcement near the federal building in downtown LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer

The protests are in response to raids carried out by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE).

US President Donald Trump has activated 4,000 National Guard troops – the federal reserve force – to protect ICE officers carrying out raids as well as federal buildings in LA, despite objections by California Governor Gavin Newsom, who called the deployments unnecessary, illegal and politically motivated.

Mr Trump also sent 700 marines, who are expected to start operating in the LA area on Wednesday, according to the US Northern Command.

Read more from Sky News:
Eyewitness: Furious immigrants vow to ‘defend’ LA
What we know about the LA immigration raids and protests
Explainer: Who is Gavin Newsom?

The Ronald Reagan Federal Building and Courthouse in Santa are boarded up. Pic: Mindy Schauer/The Orange County Register via AP
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The Ronald Reagan Federal Building and Courthouse in Santa are boarded up. Pic: Mindy Schauer/The Orange County Register via AP

National Guard troops are lined up to protect a federal building in downtown LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer
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National Guard troops are lined up to protect a federal building in downtown LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer

State officials said Mr Trump’s response was an extreme overreaction to mostly peaceful demonstrations, with California senators Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla saying the domestic mobilisation of active-duty military personnel should only happen “during the most extreme circumstances, and these are not them”.

Mr Trump defended his decision in a speech to soldiers at the Army base in Fort Bragg, North Carolina, saying his administration would “liberate Los Angeles”.

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Trump: ‘We will liberate Los Angeles’

“Generations of Army heroes did not shed their blood on distant shores only to watch our country be destroyed by invasion and third-world lawlessness,” Mr Trump said.

“What you’re witnessing in California is a full-blown assault on peace, on public order and on national sovereignty, carried out by rioters bearing foreign flags.”

A protester is arrested by law enforcement officers in downtown LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer
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A protester is arrested by law enforcement officers in downtown LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer

California Highway Patrol officers clash with protesters in LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer
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California Highway Patrol officers clash with protesters in LA. Pic: AP/Eric Thayer

Gavin Newsom launched a blistering response in an address on Tuesday evening, saying the deployment of the National Guard without consulting Californian officials was a “brazen abuse of power by a sitting president”.

He said it “enflamed a combustible situation, putting our people, our officers and even our National Guard at risk”.

“That’s when the downward spiral began. He doubled down on his dangerous National Guard deployment by fanning the flames even harder – and the president, he did it on purpose,” Mr Newsom said.

Newsom takes the fight to Trump

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s televised address to the nation felt presidential as he took the fight to the man in the Oval Office, with a series of scorching putdowns.

He made a compelling case that Donald Trump’s extraordinary decision to send troops to LA against his wishes had put the country on the brink of authoritarianism.

He spoke the day after the Pentagon announced 700 marines were being deployed to join 4,000 National Guard troops ordered to the streets of LA by Trump.

But there has been no evidence so far that local law enforcement is being overwhelmed by the size or might of this resistance movement.

The head-to-head between Trump and Newsom is a compelling one.

The governor is known to harbour presidential ambitions for 2028 and is something of a MAGA bogeyman.

Newsom presides over a blue state, the biggest in the country, and is growing his brand with a podcast and – now – Trump has effectively put him in the national spotlight by bringing this political battle to his door.

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The governor accused Mr Trump of choosing escalation and “theatrics over public safety”, as the situation was “winding down” before the president deployed the troops.

Mr Newsom added: “When Donald Trump sought blanket authority to commandeer the National Guard, he made that order apply to every state in this nation.

“This is about all of us, this is about you. California may be first, but it clearly won’t end here; other states are next. Democracy is next. Democracy is under assault before our eyes.”

A man holds a Mexican flag, which has become synonymous with solidarity for migrants targeted in the raids. Pic: AP/Damian Dovarganes
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A man holds a Mexican flag, which has become synonymous with solidarity for migrants targeted in the raids. Pic: AP/Damian Dovarganes

A protester holds up a placard while marching through downtown LA. Pic: Reuters/Leah Millis
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A protester holds up a placard while marching through downtown LA. Pic: Reuters/Leah Millis

People protest against the ongoing immigration raids in Washington, D.C. Pic: AP/Julia Demaree Nikhinson
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People protest against the ongoing immigration raids in Washington, D.C. Pic: AP/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Homeland Security said on Monday that ICE had arrested 2,000 immigration offenders per day recently, which significantly exceeds the 311 daily average in the fiscal year 2024 under former president Joe Biden.

The protests over the immigration raids have started to spread across the US, with demonstrations in cities like Seattle, Austin, Chicago and Washington, DC.

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Is Trump ready to wage war at home?

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Is Trump ready to wage war at home?

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While chaos in Los Angeles continues, with a curfew in place in the city to prevent further unrest, Donald Trump spent the day hunkered down in a bunker with helicopters soaring above and drones buzzing by at a celebration of the US army’s birthday.

US correspondents Mark Stone in Washington DC and Martha Kelner in LA discuss the parallels between the president’s display of military celebration, and sending troops in to restore law and order against protesters.

Plus, as US and Chinese negotiators meet in London to try and resolve the ongoing trade war between the two nations, Mark and Martha ask what’s at stake.

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

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