Taken at face value Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war, that would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.
In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise to address a near trillion dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.
In response, he wants to deploy tariffs as an “external revenue service”, simultaneously easing the US deficit and, so the theory goes, pricing out imports in favour of domestic production.
With a promise to reestablish industries, from chip production lost to Taiwan, and car and pharmaceutical manufacturing to Europe, he is promising a country-by-country tailored assault on the status quo.
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Donald Trump unveils new tariffs for trading partners
Risk to Britain remains uncertain
His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.
Mexico and Canada, the European Union (whose 10% tariff on US cars is a particular irritation), as well as the ‘BRICS’ nations – Brazil, Russia, India (which imposes 9% tariffs on US imports), China and South Africa.
What it means for the UK will not be certain until the details are revealed in April, but it is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.
To begin with, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK – in a quirk of statistics, the UK thinks it has a surplus too – and Brexit has placed it outside the EU bloc with the ability at least in theory to be more agile.
The UK also imposes direct tariffs on very few US goods following a deal in 2021, brokered by then trade secretary Liz Truss, that removed tariffs on denim and motorcycles bound for Britain, and cashmere and Scotch whisky heading the other way.
But we do add VAT to imports, and Mr Trump’s threat to treat the sales tax as a tariff by another name will chill British exporters.
Image: Donald Trump accepts his tariffs will be inflationary for the US. Pic: AP
Tariffs set to raise prices in US
Analysts have estimated tariffs could add 21% to the cost of exports, amounting to a £24bn blow to national income.
Pharmaceuticals, cars, chemicals, scientific instruments and the aerospace industry – the main components of our £182bn US export trade – will all be potentially affected.
But the pain will certainly be shared.
Tariffs are paid by the importer, not the exporter, and even Mr Trump accepts they will be inflationary.
Rising prices on Main Street could yet be the biggest brake on the president’s tariff plan.
A former FBI director has been interviewed by the US Secret Service over a social media post that Republicans say was a call for violence against President Donald Trump.
James Comey, who led the FBI from 2013 until he was fired in 2017 by Mr Trump during his first term in office, shared a photo of seashells appearing to form the numbers “86 47”.
Image: James Comey later removed the Instagram post. File pic: AP
He captioned the Instagram post: “Cool shell formation on my beach walk.”
Some have interpreted the post as a threat, alleging that 86 47 means to violently remove Mr Trump from office, including by assassination.
What does ’86 47′ mean?
The number 86 can be used as a verb in the US. It commonly means “to throw somebody out of a bar for being drunk or disorderly”.
One recent meaning of the term is “to kill”, according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, which said it had not adopted this meaning of 86 “due to its relative recency and sparseness of use”.
The number has previously been used in a political context by Matt Gaetz, who was President Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general but withdrew from consideration following a series of sexual misconduct allegations.
Mr Gaetz wrote: “We’ve now 86’d…” and listed political opponents he had sparred with who ended up stepping down.
Meanwhile, 47 is supposedly representing Mr Trump, who is the 47th US president.
Mr Comey later removed the post, saying he thought the numbers “were a political message” and that he was not aware that the numeric arrangement could be associated with violence.
“I didn’t realise some folks associate those numbers with violence. It never occurred to me, but I oppose violence of any kind, so I took the post down,” Mr Comey said.
Mr Trump rejected the former FBI director’s explanation, telling Fox News: “He knew exactly what that meant. A child knows what that meant… that meant assassination.”
Donald Trump Jr accused Mr Comey of “casually calling for my dad to be murdered”.
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US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem confirmed in a post on X that Mr Comey had been interviewed as part of “an ongoing investigation” but gave no indication of whether he might face further action.
The Secret Service is part of the Department of Homeland Security.
White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich said Mr Comey had put out “what can clearly be interpreted as a hit on the sitting president of the United States”.
“This is deeply concerning to all of us and is being taken seriously,” Mr Budowich wrote on X.
Another White House official James Blair said the post was a “Clarion Call (…) to terrorists & hostile regimes to kill the President of the United States as he travels in the Middle East”.
Mr Trump fired Mr Comey in May 2017 for botching an investigation into 2016 democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, the White House said at the time.
While Mr Comey was the director of the FBI, the agency opened an investigation into possible collusion between the Trump 2016 presidential campaign and Russia to help get Mr Trump elected.
The Trump administration is considering a TV show whereby immigrants compete for the prize of US citizenship, the Department for Homeland Security has confirmed.
It would see contestants compete in tasks across different states and include trivia and “civic” challenges, according to the producer who pitched the idea.
Participants could battle it out to build a rocket at NASA headquarters, Rob Worsoff suggested.
Confirming the administration was considering the idea, Department for Homeland Security spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said: “We need to revive patriotism and civic duty in this country, and we’re happy to review out-of-the-box pitches. This pitch has not received approval or rejection by staff.”
It comes amid hardline immigration measures implemented by President Donald Trump on his return to office in January.
Since being back in the White House he has ordered “mass deportations” and used the Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged gang members to countries in Central and South America.
Mr Worsoff, who is a Canadian-American citizen, said his pitch was inspired by his own naturalisation process.
He cautioned that those who “lost” the gameshow would not be punished or deported but said the details of how it would work would be down to TV networks and federal officials.
The producer said the US was in need of “a national conversation about what it means to be American”.
He said the show, if accepted by a network, would “get to know” contestants and “their stories and their journeys”, while “celebrating them as humans”.
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Behind the scenes of Trump trip
Meanwhile, the Department for Homeland Security has asked for 20,000 National Guard troops from various states to assist with its efforts rounding up illegal immigrants.
Currently, the federal Enforcement and Removals Operations agency only has around 7,700 staff – but the boost would help fulfil Mr Trump’s inauguration promises.
The Trump administration has already recruited 10,000 troops under state and federal orders to bolster the US-Mexico border.
Some have now been given the power to detain migrants within a newly militarised strip of land just adjacent to it.
Image: People sit outside their destroyed homes in St Louis, Missouri late on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Further devastation expected in other states
The National Weather Service warned of further devastation hitting Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma on Saturday.
“Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains,” it said on its website.
The Midwest tornadoes were also expected to hit Illinois, eventually stretching to New Jersey and the Atlantic coast.