Taken at face value Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war, that would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.
In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise to address a near trillion dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.
In response, he wants to deploy tariffs as an “external revenue service”, simultaneously easing the US deficit and, so the theory goes, pricing out imports in favour of domestic production.
With a promise to reestablish industries, from chip production lost to Taiwan, and car and pharmaceutical manufacturing to Europe, he is promising a country-by-country tailored assault on the status quo.
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Donald Trump unveils new tariffs for trading partners
Risk to Britain remains uncertain
His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.
Mexico and Canada, the European Union (whose 10% tariff on US cars is a particular irritation), as well as the ‘BRICS’ nations – Brazil, Russia, India (which imposes 9% tariffs on US imports), China and South Africa.
What it means for the UK will not be certain until the details are revealed in April, but it is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.
To begin with, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK – in a quirk of statistics, the UK thinks it has a surplus too – and Brexit has placed it outside the EU bloc with the ability at least in theory to be more agile.
The UK also imposes direct tariffs on very few US goods following a deal in 2021, brokered by then trade secretary Liz Truss, that removed tariffs on denim and motorcycles bound for Britain, and cashmere and Scotch whisky heading the other way.
But we do add VAT to imports, and Mr Trump’s threat to treat the sales tax as a tariff by another name will chill British exporters.
Image: Donald Trump accepts his tariffs will be inflationary for the US. Pic: AP
Tariffs set to raise prices in US
Analysts have estimated tariffs could add 21% to the cost of exports, amounting to a £24bn blow to national income.
Pharmaceuticals, cars, chemicals, scientific instruments and the aerospace industry – the main components of our £182bn US export trade – will all be potentially affected.
But the pain will certainly be shared.
Tariffs are paid by the importer, not the exporter, and even Mr Trump accepts they will be inflationary.
Rising prices on Main Street could yet be the biggest brake on the president’s tariff plan.
The boss of world football’s governing body was back in the White House this week, and sport wasn’t even on the agenda.
And yet it still came back to football and today’s World Cup draw – even after the signing of a peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Mr Infantino was picked out in the audience as Mr Trump diverted from trumpeting ending another conflict to boasting about World Cup ticket sales.
Image: Donald Trump and FIFA President Gianni Infantino stand next to the FIFA Club World Cup trophy. Pic: Reuters
“A great leader in sports and a great gentleman,” the US president said.
So it’s certainly not just Mr Infantino dishing out the flattery. But there is plenty of that, aligning himself with the MAGA agenda going back into the first term.
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“Together we will make not only America great again,” he said in January, “but also the entire world”.
There is often bemusement when Mr Infantino pops up wherever Mr Trump is – from a Saudi-backed financial conference in Miami to an official visit to Saudi Arabia and the Gaza peace summit in Egypt.
There isn’t a non-American with such prominent proximity to the presidency. And it’s being used to shortcut decision-making for the World Cup, with direct access to the most powerful man on Earth to help smooth the tournament’s delivery.
Mr Infantino knows how to chime with Mr Trump’s talking points, recently telling critics to lay off the president because he has a mandate from winning the 2024 election.
“We should all support what he is doing because I think he is doing pretty good,” Mr Infantino said.
Image: Pic: AP
For a man who was largely known a decade ago for drawing balls for the Champions League, the ascent to the peak of power has been rapid and only made possible by scandals knocking out presumptive leaders.
It will be a draw on Friday that cements this unlikeliest of bonds when the World Cup schedule is determined at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC.
So much has been done to flatter Mr Trump, to pander to his passions.
The one thing he craves more than anything is a peace prize.
And after missing out on the foremost, illustrious Nobel version – despite an endorsement from Mr Infantino – FIFA created its own to hand out on Friday without any announced process for nominations or selection.
And if there is one song to indulge Mr Trump with it is the unlikely YMCA. The 1970s disco group Village People have been hired for the draw ceremony.
Expect the Trump dance. Expect the unexpected. Expect uneasy moments as Mr Trump takes centre stage alongside Mr Infantino.
How freewheeling will the presidential address become?
And is it all too political, even for a football organisation rarely untouched by politics?
Image: Pic: AP
It has created awkward moments when Mr Trump has been disparaging towards Democrat-run cities attacked for not being safe.
“Gianni, can I say we will move (matches)?” Mr Trump asked on live TV in the Oval Office.
“I don’t think you’re going to have this problem. But we’re going to move the event to some place where it’s going to be appreciated and safe.”
Usually FIFA dismisses questions about moving World Cup venues this late on, but Mr Infantino responded in part: “Safety and security is the number one priority.”
Usually, FIFA would be working to ensure all fans can attend its tournament, but the governing body is not dissenting against the block on visitors from Iran and Haiti.
The rhetoric of Mr Trump – framed around security – collides with FIFA’s idealism about uniting the world through football, with everyone being welcome.
And this is not just about the US. For the first time this is a World Cup being co-hosted by three nations, even if Mr Infantino has paid more visits to just one of them.
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But the leaders of Canada and Mexico are due at the draw here in DC.
They’ll hope the football ceremony provides some respite from Mr Trump’s threats of a military strike on Mexico over drugs or deepening the trade war with Canada.
There is a peace prize to award, after all.
A celebration of all things Donald Trump.
And at some point, the teams will discover they will be drawn to play at the tournament next summer.
Because with Gianni Infantino it has to come back to football, the whole purpose of his role.
Even if his political alliances can seem more prominent than what happens on the pitch.
The leaders of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo come to Washington DC to sign a peace deal. They don’t look at each other, don’t shake hands, and all the while fighting carries on in eastern Congo.
Is this all just business masquerading as peace?
Plus – a report shows defence secretary Pete Hegseth (now styled as war secretary) risked endangering the lives of servicemen and women by texting operational details on his personal and non-secure phone. How much pressure is he now under?
Martha reports from California and a town nicknamed “Little Kabul”, where Afghan immigrants are now in the crosshairs of Donald Trump’s anti-immigration push.
And the FIFA World Cup draw is here. But as the president continues to threaten to move matches away from Democratic-run cities, how politicised has this global football event become?
You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel. You can watch Martha’s piece from Fremont here:
Email us on trump100@sky.uk with your comments and questions.
An 88-year-old US army veteran who works full time at a grocery store to make ends meet will receive over $1.7m (£1.2m) to help him retire.
Ed Bambas went viral after Australian influencer Samuel Weidenhofer shared a video of Bambas opening up about his financial struggles on social media.
In the video, which has received over 269,000 likes on Facebook, Bambas explains how he retired from General Motors in 1999, but lost his pension in 2012 after the company went bankrupt.
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He also lost his healthcare coverage – just as his wife was sick. She died seven years ago.
Bambas was left with just $10,000 (£7,500) of his life insurance.
He tears up as he says: “So I sold my house, sold the property I had, we made it through.”
Weidenhofer, who uses his platform to help raise money for people in need, set up a GoFundMe page after speaking with Bambas.
His son Michael said he didn’t know his dad had gone viral until he received messages from friends and family.
Speaking to Sky’s sister company, NBC News, Michael said that his dad had lost himself after his mother’s death.
“Right after my mum passed away, I’d go over to the house and I’d find him basically walking around in circles, not knowing what to do with himself.”
He added that: “He took care of my mum for almost 10 years as her primary caretaker.”
Michael explained that his dad started looking for work due to mounting medical bills and that he had been working eight-hour shifts, five days a week, for five years.
Meijer, the Michigan grocery store where Ed Bambas works, said he was a valued team member who connects with customers and adds joy and warmth to the store.
The store said it would offer additional support to Bambas considering recent events.
Weidenhofer says he plans to present Bambas with the money at a ceremony later today.
His son said the money raised means his dad can “start living and doing things for himself.”
“I don’t know how to thank everyone for what they’re doing for my dad. It’s just amazing.”