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Taken at face value Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war, that would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.

In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise to address a near trillion dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.

In response, he wants to deploy tariffs as an “external revenue service”, simultaneously easing the US deficit and, so the theory goes, pricing out imports in favour of domestic production.

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With a promise to reestablish industries, from chip production lost to Taiwan, and car and pharmaceutical manufacturing to Europe, he is promising a country-by-country tailored assault on the status quo.

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Donald Trump unveils new tariffs for trading partners

Risk to Britain remains uncertain

His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.

Mexico and Canada, the European Union (whose 10% tariff on US cars is a particular irritation), as well as the ‘BRICS’ nations – Brazil, Russia, India (which imposes 9% tariffs on US imports), China and South Africa.

What it means for the UK will not be certain until the details are revealed in April, but it is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.

To begin with, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK – in a quirk of statistics, the UK thinks it has a surplus too – and Brexit has placed it outside the EU bloc with the ability at least in theory to be more agile.

The UK also imposes direct tariffs on very few US goods following a deal in 2021, brokered by then trade secretary Liz Truss, that removed tariffs on denim and motorcycles bound for Britain, and cashmere and Scotch whisky heading the other way.

But we do add VAT to imports, and Mr Trump’s threat to treat the sales tax as a tariff by another name will chill British exporters.

Read more from Sky News:
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President Donald Trump listens as he meets with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, in Washington. (Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Donald Trump accepts his tariffs will be inflationary for the US. Pic: AP

Tariffs set to raise prices in US

Analysts have estimated tariffs could add 21% to the cost of exports, amounting to a £24bn blow to national income.

Pharmaceuticals, cars, chemicals, scientific instruments and the aerospace industry – the main components of our £182bn US export trade – will all be potentially affected.

But the pain will certainly be shared.

Tariffs are paid by the importer, not the exporter, and even Mr Trump accepts they will be inflationary.

Rising prices on Main Street could yet be the biggest brake on the president’s tariff plan.

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Israel and Hamas resume ceasefire talks after ‘extensive strikes’ on Gaza

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Israel and Hamas resume ceasefire talks after 'extensive strikes' on Gaza

Israel and Hamas said ceasefire talks have resumed in Qatar – even as Israeli forces ramped up a bombing campaign and mobilised for a massive new ground assault.

Earlier, the Israeli military said it had been “conducting extensive strikes and mobilising troops” as part of preparations to expand operations in Gaza.

Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said Hamas had “refused to discuss negotiations without a cessation of the war”, but after the airstrikes and the mobilisation of forces the militant group’s representatives “have agreed to sit in a room and seriously discuss the deal”.

“Israel emphasises that if the talks do not progress, the [military] operation will continue,” he added.

A Hamas source told Sky News that ceasefire talks began in Doha on Saturday morning.

Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip, May 17, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Jabalia. Pic: Reuters

Palestinians inspect the damage caused by an Israeli airstrike that struck tents at Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Saturday, May 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Tents were targeted in an airstrike on Saturday at al Aqsa Hospital in Deir al Balah in central Gaza. Pic: AP

Hamas official Taher al-Nono told Reuters news agency that the two sides were involved in discussions without “pre-conditions”.

He added Hamas was “keen to exert all the effort needed” to help mediators make the negotiations a success.

More than 150 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.

This week has been one of the deadliest phases of bombardment since a truce collapsed in March and marked a significant escalation in Israel’s offensive.

The Israeli military’s preparations to expand operations in Gaza have included the build-up of tanks and troops along the border.

It is part of “Operation Gideon Chariot”, which Israel says is aimed at defeating Hamas and getting its hostages back.

A view shows Israeli tanks near the Israel-Gaza border, in Israel May 17, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
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Israeli tanks near the Israel-Gaza border on Saturday. Pic: Reuters

An Israeli tank moves in a staging area in southern Israel, near the border with Gaza, Friday, May 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo)
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An Israeli tank being relocated to a position near the Gaza border on Friday. Pic: AP

An Israeli defence official said earlier this month that the operation would not be launched before Donald Trump concluded his visit to the Middle East.

The US president ended his trip on Friday, with no apparent progress towards a new peace deal.

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Forensic look at Israel’s escalation

Meanwhile, on Saturday, leaders at the annual summit of the Arab League in Baghdad said they were trying to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

They also promised to contribute to the reconstruction of the territory once the war stops.

The meeting comes two months after Israel ended a ceasefire reached with the Hamas militant group.

A Palestinian man carries the body of a child killed in Israeli strikes,‏ in Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip May 16, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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A man carrying the body of a child killed in Israeli airstrikes‏ on Friday in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters

A general view of destruction in North Gaza, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border, May 17, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
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Parts of northern Gaza have been completely destroyed in the bombing campaign. Pic: Reuters

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 5 May that Israel was planning an expanded, intensive offensive against Hamas as his security cabinet approved plans that could involve seizing Gaza and controlling aid.

This week, Israel said it had bombed the European Hospital because it was home to an underground Hamas base, but Sky News analysis has cast doubt on its evidence.

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Israel’s goal is the elimination of Hamas, which attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and seizing about 250 hostages.

Its military response has killed more than 53,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

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The chilling moment in Russia-Ukraine peace talks – as Putin makes mockery of Trump’s efforts to end war

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The chilling moment in Russia-Ukraine peace talks - as Putin makes mockery of Trump's efforts to end war

Vladimir Putin made a mockery this week of Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Far from punishing him for it, the US president went out of his way to dodge calls to get tough with the Russian leader.

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On Sunday, President Trump called on leaders of both Russia and Ukraine to meet.

He posted: “President Putin of Russia wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY.”

That post let the Russian leader off the hook. Only the day before, Putin had been ordered by Ukraine’s allies, including America, to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.

Donald Trump hints at meeting with Vladimir Putin soon
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Pic: AP

The Russian president had swerved that demand, suggesting talks instead.

“If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump posted before swivelling and backing Putin’s proposals for talks instead.

Undeterred, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted the call.

Putin though refused to go, sending officials instead.

And yet there was no reprimand from the US president. Instead, he chose to undermine the talks he had himself called for.

“Look, nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together,” he told reporters on Air Force One. So much for that then.

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What happened at Ukraine talks?

It is what happened in those talks though that should give the US president the greatest pause for thought about Putin’s intentions – as it does in Kyiv.

The message they brought was blunt and belligerent, threatening eternal war.

“We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three – however long it takes,” lead Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky is reported to have said. “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”

Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. Pic: AP
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Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. Pic: AP

Far from offering a compromise, they are reported to have demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four regions they have partially seized by force and the capitulation of another two, just for good measure.

And there was a chilling moment when the Russians are reported to have threatened their interlocutors like gangsters.

“Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones,” Mednisky said. Russia is prepared to fight forever.

For Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, that was personal.

Max, his 23-year-old nephew, lost his life fighting the Russians in 2022 not long after their illegal and unprovoked invasion began.

Read more from Sky News:
Nine killed in attack on Ukrainian bus
First direct Russia-Ukraine talks since 2022
Analysis: Talks reveal a stark reality about war

Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine's deputy foreign minister. Pic: AP
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Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister. Pic: AP

At the end of this week, Putin appears scornful of Western efforts to end this war through a ceasefire and negotiations and Trump seems happy to let him get away with it.

Even Fox News, normally slavishly subservient to Trump, is wondering what gives.

Its anchor Bret Baier is no Jeremy Paxman, but in an interview last night asked Donald Trump 10 times if he might finally now put pressure on Putin.

The US president ducked and dived, talking about the money he had made in his Gulf tour, Zelenskyy’s shortcomings, Biden, and Iran instead. But he did not give a straight answer to the question.

With performances like that, Putin has nothing to worry about. Trump’s position though seems increasingly untenable.

Ukraine’s European allies though should be alarmed. They threatened Russia with sanctions and retaliation last weekend if he rejected a ceasefire. He now has.

With or without America, will they be good to their word?

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How Israel has escalated Gaza bombing campaign

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How Israel has escalated Gaza bombing campaign

A wave of deadly strikes in northern Gaza has marked a significant escalation in Israel’s offensive.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on Friday evening it was “conducting extensive strikes and mobilising troops to achieve operational control in the areas of Gaza”.

Earlier, it said it had struck “over 150 terror targets” across the Gaza Strip in the previous 24 hours – an average of one airstrike every 10 minutes.

Israeli strikes on Gaza have killed more than 250 people since Thursday morning, the Hamas-run health ministry in the region said on Friday.

Nurse and his family killed in strike

The impact of this new bombardment is cataclysmic, as this video of an Israeli airstrike in Jabalia, northern Gaza, verified by Sky News, shows.

Other videos show huge smoke clouds rising from airstrikes on residential neighbourhoods surrounding the city’s Indonesian Hospital.

The hospital’s director, Dr Marwan al Sultan, told Sky News: “There is a shortage of everything except death.”

Among those killed in Jabalia on Friday was 42-year old Yahya Shehab, a nurse for the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund (PCRF).

He was killed alongside his wife Tamara, 37, and their five children: Sarah, 18, Anas, 16, Maryam, 14, Aya, 12 and Abdul, 11.

PCRF nurse Yahya Shehab, 42, was killed on Friday alongside his wife and five young children. Pic: PCRF
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Nurse Yahya Shehab, 42, was killed alongside his wife and five young children. Pic: PCRF

He is survived by his niece Huda, 27, a civil engineer, who lives nearby with her husband Ahmad Ngat, 31, and their two young sons, Mohammed, seven, and Yusuf, four.

Ahmad remembers Yahya as kind and generous, and that he would use his skills as a nurse to treat Mohammed and Yusuf whenever they were sick.

“His kids were great too,” Ahmad says. “May God have mercy on them.”

Operation Gideon Chariot

An Israeli official said Friday’s strikes were preparatory actions in the lead-up to a larger operation.

Earlier this month, Israel’s security cabinet approved “Operation Gideon Chariot” – a plan to “capture” all of Gaza and force its entire population to move to a small enclave in the southern Gaza Strip.

At the time, a defence official said the operation would go ahead if no hostage deal was reached by the end of US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East. That visit ended on Friday 16 May.

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Hamas had proposed releasing all hostages in exchange for a permanent end to the war. Last month, Hamas turned down Israel’s offer of a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the militant group laying down its weapons and releasing half the living hostages.

Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, who sits in the security cabinet, said of Operation Gideon Chariot that Gaza would be “entirely destroyed”, and that its population will “leave in great numbers to third countries”.

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Fresh airstrikes hit Gaza

Ahmad says he is ready to leave Gaza with his family at the earliest opportunity.

“We want to live our lives,” he says.

Huda (L) with her husband Ahmad (C) and their son Mohammed (L). Pic: Ahmad Ngat
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Ahmad (C) with his wife Huda (R) and their son Mohammed (L). Pic: Ahmad Ngat

His wife Huda grieving the loss of her uncle Yahya, is seven months pregnant. The family are constantly struggling to find enough food for her and the children, he says.

“Unfortunately, she suffers greatly,” Ahmad says. “She developed gestational diabetes during this pregnancy.”

Israel has prevented the entry of all food, fuel and water since 2 March. On Monday, a UN-backed report warned that one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation.

Satellite imagery may show new aid hubs

Under new proposals backed by the US, Israel now intends to control the distribution of aid via private military contractors.

The proposals, set to start operating by the end of May, would see aid distributed from militarised compounds in four locations around the Gaza Strip.

Satellite imagery from recent weeks shows Israel has constructed four compounds which could be used for aid distribution.

Newly constructed compounds in Gaza, May 2025. Pics: Planet Labs PBC
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Newly constructed compounds in Gaza, May 2025. Pics: Planet Labs PBC

Construction began in April and was completed by early May.

Three of these are clustered together in the southwest corner of the Gaza Strip, with one in the central Netzarim corridor.

None are located in northern Gaza, where Ahmad and Huda’s family live.

The UN has called this a “deliberate attempt to weaponise” aid distribution and has refused to participate.

The planned aid distribution system is being coordinated by a new non-profit, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which was set up in February in Switzerland.

Its board includes a former head of World Central Kitchen, as well as people with close ties to the US military and private military contractors.

Proposals drawn up by the GHF say the four planned aid distribution sites could feed around 1.2 million people, approximately 60% of Gaza’s population.

The GHF later requested that Israel establish additional distribution points.

Speaking to the UN Security Council on Tuesday, UN Relief chief Tom Fletcher said the plan “makes starvation a bargaining chip”.

“It is cynical sideshow. A deliberate distraction. A fig leaf for further violence and displacement,” he said.

Read more:
Up to a million Palestinians could be ‘permanently relocated’
Trump risks becoming losing interest in Gaza – analysis

Large areas of Gaza have already been razed in recent weeks, including vast tracts of the southern city of Rafah, where many had fled during the war’s early stages.

Sky News analysis of satellite imagery shows approximately two-thirds of Rafah’s built-up area (66%) has been reduced entirely to rubble, with buildings across much of the rest of the city showing signs of severe damage.

On Thursday, Human Rights Watch executive director Federico Borello said the UK and US have a duty, under the Genocide Convention, to “stop Israeli authorities from starving civilians in Gaza”.

He said: “Hearing Israeli officials flaunt plans to squeeze Gaza’s two million people into an even tinier area while making the rest of the land uninhabitable should be treated like a five-alarm fire in London, Brussels, Paris, and Washington.”

Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said on Friday that Israel’s new offensive is intended to secure the release of its hostages. “Our objective is to get them home and get Hamas to relinquish power,” he said.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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