The first two games of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off included one that was close until the end — Canada’s 4-3 OT win over Sweden — and one that was close through 37 minutes — the United States’ 6-1 rout of Finland.
Before we dive into the preview, here’s an updated look at the round-robin standings. The top two teams after the round-robin will face off in the final Thursday:
Who are the key players and matchups to watch? What are the most important statistics heading into this contest? Read on for all of that, courtesy of ESPN Research and Stathletes, plus betting intel courtesy of ESPN BET, and picks on the game from Sean Allen.
Sweden vs.
Finland
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+ Bell Centre (Montreal)
Betting intel
Money line: SWE -210 | Finland +175 Game spread: SWE -1.5 (+130) | Finland +1.5 (-155) Total goals: Over 5.5 (-105) | Under 5.5 (-115)
Sweden
Erik Karlsson leads all players with five blocked shots. His most in an NHL game this season is five, Dec. 29 vs. the New York Islanders.
Mika Zibanejad was the only Swedish skater to be over 50% on faceoffs (57%, 13-of-23). The 13 faceoffs won are the second most, behind Finland’s Aleksander Barkov (15).
While they did combine for the goal that tied the game 3-3, Sweden was down 15-9 in shot attempts and 8-4 in shots on goal at 5-on-5 when Joel Eriksson Ek, Jesper Bratt and Lucas Raymond were on the ice together, per Stathletes.
Swedish defenders had 26 passes that led to shot attempts, according to Stathletes, including three defensemen with at least six: Victor Hedman (7), Karlsson (7) and Gustav Forsling (6).
Finland
Captain Aleksander Barkov led Finland with five shots on goal, the second most in the game behind Matthew Tkachuk’s eight. Barkov has had three NHL games this season with five or more shots, but in two of those games he also scored a goal.
Three of Finland’s top four NHL goal scorers this season failed to record a shot on goal: Mikko Rantanen: 26 NHL goals (zero shots on goal), Artturi Lehkonen: 23 NHL goals (four shots on goal), Roope Hintz: 22 NHL goals (zero shots on goal), Sebastian Aho: 20 NHL goals (zero shots on goal).
Though Rantanen did not record a shot on goal, he was tied for the most passes leading to a shot with Auston Matthews (7).
Juuse Saros allowed six goals, which is tied with the most he gave up in an NHL game this season (done twice prior), including his last start before the break against the Chicago Blackhawks on Feb. 7. Kevin Lankinen will start against Sweden.
Picks for the game
Neither of these teams were a pushover in their opening losses of the tournament.
For Sweden, the line of Filip Forsberg, Adrian Kempe and Elias Pettersson did the best job of tilting the ice in their favor, managing 12 shot attempts and a goal in 8:39 at 5-on-5 against Canada, while only allowing seven shot attempts against.
Adrian Kempe to record 4-plus shots on goal (+145): Kempe fired five against Canada and should get plenty of chances to pepper Kevin Lankinen.
Esa Lindell anytime point scorer (+260): Wait. Hear me out. The Finns tried all-forward power-play units at both 4-on-3 and 5-on-4 for a total of 2:32 seconds with just two total shots on goal. They might consider squeezing a defenseman onto the top unit for a more traditional look, even if they don’t have a great candidate. The second unit with Lindell on the point played just over a minute against the Americans and generated two shots on goal and six shot attempts. — Sean Allen
United States vs.
Canada
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+ Bell Centre (Montreal)
Betting intel
Money line: USA -110 | Canada -110 Game spread: USA +1.5 (-325) | Canada -1.5 (+220) Total goals: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125)
United States
The Tkachuk brothers were the stars of the show Thursday. Brady Tkachuk had five slot shot attempts, the most of any player in the tournament; four scoring chance shot attempts, tied for the most of any player (Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon); and five scoring chances created with shots and passes, tied for second (MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Cale Makar)
Matthew Tkachuk had four slot shot attempts, tied for second in the tournament (MacKinnon, Mark Stone); four scoring chance shot attempts, tied for the most (Brady Tkachuk, MacKinnon); and six scoring chances created with shots and passes, the most in the tournament.
The U.S. led all teams in slot shot attempts (23) and scoring chances (20), per Stathletes. The team ranks second in total shot attempts with 58, behind Sweden (69).
Team USA was credited with 32 hits, which led all teams through the first game. That was 11 more than the next-closest team (Sweden, 21). Brady Tkachuk led all players through the opening games with eight hits, matching his NHL season high (Nov. 9 vs. the Boston Bruins).
Canada
Canada has won 26 straight games with Sidney Crosby in the lineup. The streak consists of the last four games of the 2010 Olympics, all six games of the 2014 Olympics, all nine games he played in 2015 IIHF World Championship (he sat out the last preliminary-round game), all six games at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey and the first game of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off.
Nathan MacKinnon led all players in the game against Sweden with six shots on goal. He is the NHL leader in games having six or more shots on goal with 13, which is one more than USA’s Zach Werenski, USA’s Jack Hughes and David Pastrnak.
Brad Marchand‘s goal was his sixth in NHL international competitions (Canada Cup, World Cup of Hockey), the most among active players.
Per Stathletes, every Canadian forward created at least one scoring chance (either by pass or shot) except Anthony Cirelli and Travis Konecny. Konecny is being replaced in the lineup by Sam Bennett for the game against the U.S.
Connor McDavid had 72 puck touches, according to Stathletes, 16 more than the next-highest Canadian forward (Mitch Marner).
Picks for the game
The Americans made a couple of line changes late in the game that made a world of difference. First, they realized, ‘Hey, aren’t those two brothers?’ and finally put the Tkachuks on a line together. Brady and Matthew, along with Jack Eichel, dominated with 13 shot attempts in 6:03 at five-on-five.
Zach Werenski anytime point scorer (+110). Second, they swapped out Adam Fox and installed Werenski on the top power-play unit. With Fox, the group that also included Auston Matthews, Eichel, Jake Guentzel and Matthew Tkachuk managed just one shot on goal and three shot attempts in 2:55. With Werenski, they scored two goals on six shot attempts in just 1:15.
Canada’s power play was as dangerous as expected, but after William Nylander took an early high-sticking infraction, Sweden stayed out of the box for the rest of the game. The result was only 12 seconds of power-play time, because that’s how long the unit of Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Reinhart and Cale Makar needed to fire one shot on goal and score.
At 5-on-5, the line of Reinhart, McDavid and Mitch Marner was the only one of Canada’s lines that managed to have a positive result in the shot attempts battle, with the other three allowing equal or more shot attempts against them.
Sam Reinhart anytime goal scorer (+230): This game feels like it’s going to have more penalties. There are a lot of emotions coming into the contest, and we’ll get to see more than 12 seconds of this elite Canadian power play. So why not go right back to the same well and expect the player in front of the net to bank one in?
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replacedRonald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
Tampa Bay Rays owner Stu Sternberg has agreed in principle to a $1.7 billion deal to sell the franchise to a group led by a Florida-based developer Patrick Zalupski, according to a report from The Athletic.
The deal is reportedly expected to be closed as early as September and will keep the franchise in the area, with Zalupski, a homebuilder in Jacksonville, having a strong preference to land in Tampa rather than St. Petersburg.
Sternberg bought the Rays in 2004 for $200 million.
According to Zalupski’s online bio, he is the founder, president and CEO of Dream Finders Homes. The company was founded in December 2008 and closed on 27 homes in Jacksonville the following year. Now, with an expanded footprint to many parts of the United States, Dream Finders has closed on more than 31,100 homes since its founding.
He also is a member of the board of trustees at the University of Florida.
The new ownership group also reportedly includes Bill Cosgrove, the CEO of Union Home Mortgage, and Ken Babby, owner of the Akron RubberDucks and Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, both minor-league teams.
A year ago, Sternberg had a deal in place to build a new stadium in the Historic Gas Plant District, a reimagined recreational, retail and residential district in St. Petersburg to replace Tropicana Field.
However, after Hurricane Milton shredded the roof of the stadium last October, forcing the Rays into temporary quarters, Sternberg changed his tune, saying the team would have to bear excess costs that were not in the budget.
“After careful deliberation, we have concluded we cannot move forward with the new ballpark and development project at this moment,” Sternberg said in a statement in March. “A series of events beginning in October that no one could have anticipated led to this difficult decision.”
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and some other owners began in March to privately push Sternberg to sell the franchise, The Athletic reported.
It is unclear what Zalupski’s group, if it ultimately goes through with the purchase and is approved by MLB owners, will do for a permanent stadium.
The Rays are playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, located at the site of the New York Yankees‘ spring training facility and home of their Single-A Tampa Tarpons.
ATLANTA — Shohei Ohtani will bat leadoff as the designated hitter for the National League in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game at Truist Park, and the Los Angeles Dodgers star will be followed in the batting order by left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. of the host Atlanta Braves.
Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes will start his second straight All-Star Game, Major League Baseball announced last week. Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal will make his first All-Star start for the American League.
“I think when you’re talking about the game, where it’s at, these two guys … are guys that you can root for, are super talented, are going to be faces of this game for years to come,” Roberts said.
Ohtani led off for the AL in the 2021 All-Star Game, when the two-way sensation also was the AL’s starting pitcher. He hit leadoff in 2022, then was the No. 2 hitter for the AL in 2023 and for the NL last year after leaving the Los Angeles Angels for the Dodgers.
Skenes and Skubal are Nos. 1-2 in average four-seam fastball velocity among those with 1,500 or more pitches this season, Skenes at 98.2 mph and Skubal at 97.6 mph, according to MLB Statcast.
A 23-year-old right-hander, Skenes is 4-8 despite a major league-best 2.01 ERA for the Pirates, who are last in the NL Central. The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year has 131 strikeouts and 30 walks in 131 innings.
Skubal, a 28-year-old left-hander, is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. He is 10-3 with a 2.23 ERA, striking out 153 and walking 16 in 121 innings.