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The first two games of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off included one that was close until the end — Canada’s 4-3 OT win over Sweden — and one that was close through 37 minutes — the United States’ 6-1 rout of Finland.

A super Saturday doubleheader is on the way, including the most anticipated rivalry matchups: Sweden-Finland (1 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+) and U.S.-Canada (8 p.m., ABC/ESPN+/Disney+).

Before we dive into the preview, here’s an updated look at the round-robin standings. The top two teams after the round-robin will face off in the final Thursday:

Who are the key players and matchups to watch? What are the most important statistics heading into this contest? Read on for all of that, courtesy of ESPN Research and Stathletes, plus betting intel courtesy of ESPN BET, and picks on the game from Sean Allen.


Sweden vs.

Finland

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+
Bell Centre (Montreal)

Betting intel

Money line: SWE -210 | Finland +175
Game spread: SWE -1.5 (+130) | Finland +1.5 (-155)
Total goals: Over 5.5 (-105) | Under 5.5 (-115)

Sweden

  • Erik Karlsson leads all players with five blocked shots. His most in an NHL game this season is five, Dec. 29 vs. the New York Islanders.

  • Mika Zibanejad was the only Swedish skater to be over 50% on faceoffs (57%, 13-of-23). The 13 faceoffs won are the second most, behind Finland’s Aleksander Barkov (15).

  • While they did combine for the goal that tied the game 3-3, Sweden was down 15-9 in shot attempts and 8-4 in shots on goal at 5-on-5 when Joel Eriksson Ek, Jesper Bratt and Lucas Raymond were on the ice together, per Stathletes.

  • Swedish defenders had 26 passes that led to shot attempts, according to Stathletes, including three defensemen with at least six: Victor Hedman (7), Karlsson (7) and Gustav Forsling (6).


Finland

  • Captain Aleksander Barkov led Finland with five shots on goal, the second most in the game behind Matthew Tkachuk’s eight. Barkov has had three NHL games this season with five or more shots, but in two of those games he also scored a goal.

  • Three of Finland’s top four NHL goal scorers this season failed to record a shot on goal: Mikko Rantanen: 26 NHL goals (zero shots on goal), Artturi Lehkonen: 23 NHL goals (four shots on goal), Roope Hintz: 22 NHL goals (zero shots on goal), Sebastian Aho: 20 NHL goals (zero shots on goal).

  • Though Rantanen did not record a shot on goal, he was tied for the most passes leading to a shot with Auston Matthews (7).

  • Juuse Saros allowed six goals, which is tied with the most he gave up in an NHL game this season (done twice prior), including his last start before the break against the Chicago Blackhawks on Feb. 7. Kevin Lankinen will start against Sweden.


Picks for the game

Neither of these teams were a pushover in their opening losses of the tournament.

For Sweden, the line of Filip Forsberg, Adrian Kempe and Elias Pettersson did the best job of tilting the ice in their favor, managing 12 shot attempts and a goal in 8:39 at 5-on-5 against Canada, while only allowing seven shot attempts against.

Adrian Kempe to record 4-plus shots on goal (+145): Kempe fired five against Canada and should get plenty of chances to pepper Kevin Lankinen.

Esa Lindell anytime point scorer (+260): Wait. Hear me out. The Finns tried all-forward power-play units at both 4-on-3 and 5-on-4 for a total of 2:32 seconds with just two total shots on goal. They might consider squeezing a defenseman onto the top unit for a more traditional look, even if they don’t have a great candidate. The second unit with Lindell on the point played just over a minute against the Americans and generated two shots on goal and six shot attempts. — Sean Allen


United States vs.

Canada

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+
Bell Centre (Montreal)

Betting intel

Money line: USA -110 | Canada -110
Game spread: USA +1.5 (-325) | Canada -1.5 (+220)
Total goals: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125)

United States

  • The Tkachuk brothers were the stars of the show Thursday. Brady Tkachuk had five slot shot attempts, the most of any player in the tournament; four scoring chance shot attempts, tied for the most of any player (Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon); and five scoring chances created with shots and passes, tied for second (MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Cale Makar)

  • Matthew Tkachuk had four slot shot attempts, tied for second in the tournament (MacKinnon, Mark Stone); four scoring chance shot attempts, tied for the most (Brady Tkachuk, MacKinnon); and six scoring chances created with shots and passes, the most in the tournament.

  • The U.S. led all teams in slot shot attempts (23) and scoring chances (20), per Stathletes. The team ranks second in total shot attempts with 58, behind Sweden (69).

  • Team USA was credited with 32 hits, which led all teams through the first game. That was 11 more than the next-closest team (Sweden, 21). Brady Tkachuk led all players through the opening games with eight hits, matching his NHL season high (Nov. 9 vs. the Boston Bruins).


Canada

  • Canada has won 26 straight games with Sidney Crosby in the lineup. The streak consists of the last four games of the 2010 Olympics, all six games of the 2014 Olympics, all nine games he played in 2015 IIHF World Championship (he sat out the last preliminary-round game), all six games at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey and the first game of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off.

  • Nathan MacKinnon led all players in the game against Sweden with six shots on goal. He is the NHL leader in games having six or more shots on goal with 13, which is one more than USA’s Zach Werenski, USA’s Jack Hughes and David Pastrnak.

  • Brad Marchand‘s goal was his sixth in NHL international competitions (Canada Cup, World Cup of Hockey), the most among active players.

  • Per Stathletes, every Canadian forward created at least one scoring chance (either by pass or shot) except Anthony Cirelli and Travis Konecny. Konecny is being replaced in the lineup by Sam Bennett for the game against the U.S.

  • Connor McDavid had 72 puck touches, according to Stathletes, 16 more than the next-highest Canadian forward (Mitch Marner).


Picks for the game

The Americans made a couple of line changes late in the game that made a world of difference. First, they realized, ‘Hey, aren’t those two brothers?’ and finally put the Tkachuks on a line together. Brady and Matthew, along with Jack Eichel, dominated with 13 shot attempts in 6:03 at five-on-five.

Zach Werenski anytime point scorer (+110). Second, they swapped out Adam Fox and installed Werenski on the top power-play unit. With Fox, the group that also included Auston Matthews, Eichel, Jake Guentzel and Matthew Tkachuk managed just one shot on goal and three shot attempts in 2:55. With Werenski, they scored two goals on six shot attempts in just 1:15.

Canada’s power play was as dangerous as expected, but after William Nylander took an early high-sticking infraction, Sweden stayed out of the box for the rest of the game. The result was only 12 seconds of power-play time, because that’s how long the unit of Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Reinhart and Cale Makar needed to fire one shot on goal and score.

At 5-on-5, the line of Reinhart, McDavid and Mitch Marner was the only one of Canada’s lines that managed to have a positive result in the shot attempts battle, with the other three allowing equal or more shot attempts against them.

Sam Reinhart anytime goal scorer (+230): This game feels like it’s going to have more penalties. There are a lot of emotions coming into the contest, and we’ll get to see more than 12 seconds of this elite Canadian power play. So why not go right back to the same well and expect the player in front of the net to bank one in?

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Bottom 10: Things got even grimmer in Not-So-Happy Valley

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Bottom 10: Things got even grimmer in Not-So-Happy Valley

Inspirational thought of the week:

We’re taking the train to Happy Valley
Won’t you come along there too
It’s beautiful there in Happy Valley
With wonderful things to do

The sun shines brightly the whole day long
Every bird sings a different song
There’s no need to worry, there’s joys untold
In Happy Valley you’ll never grow old

— “Happy Valley,” Rodd and The Cavaliers

Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located behind the giant lake of frying grease that is held in a secret location in metro Dallas until the State Fair of Texas starts and it’s time to cook balls of butter and funnel cake burgers, we used to roll our eyes at the term “unprecedented times.” Why? Because we once believed that all times are precedented. As William Shakespeare once wrote, “Past is prologue.” And as my Uncle Willie once said to me, shaking a spear of asparagus, “Don’t get all worked up, Ryno. Ain’t nothing gonna happen that ain’t never happened before.”

So, what changed our mind? Penn State went to the Rose Bowl Not The Rose Bowl Game to play UCLA.

So, what do we do now? A Coveted Fifth Spot team that earned that Coveted Fifth Spot by losing an OT game to a top-5 team, so we know the team isn’t actually that bad, turns right around and loses to a Bottom 10 team that we know is actually that bad. Does that mean that team should be back in the Coveted Fifth Spot because it isn’t actually that bad … or does it graduate from the Coveted Fifth Spot into the actual Bottom 10 because it is actually that bad? And what about the team that was definitely bad but beat that team? Does it graduate out of the Bottom 10 … or does it stay in the Bottom 10 because perhaps the team that we thought wasn’t bad is actually bad?

To quote Cal Naughton Jr., the NASCAR driver who thought he was bad only because teammate Ricky Bobby wouldn’t let him win, thus keeping him thinking he was bad: “My head’s all tied up like a pretzel. I got a pretzel in my head!”

And you know where they make the best pretzels? Pennsylvania.

With apologies to former SMU wide receiver Happy Nelson, former Florida State running back Happy Fick, current Kentucky D-lineman Nic “Happy” Smith and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 6 Bottom 10 rankings.

The Bearkats were krushed by New Mexiko State and now, after zero home kontests in September, kan kruise through most of Ocktober in the friendly konfines of Huntsville, Teksas.


The Beavers are the nation’s only six-loss team after traveling 4,477 miles round trip to lose a heartbreaker in Boone, North Carolina, to Appalachian State. Now they host Wake Forest, which will make a 4,624-mile round trip from Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to Corvallis and back. FWIW, Wake and App State are separated by 86 miles. The Beavs should have just stayed in North Carolina and spent the week in the foothills eating barbecue, drinking moonshine and watching the fall foliage turn orange and black, both the colors of Oregon State and the colors that your liver turns after drinking real Carolina moonshine.


It was the actual Minutemen who were perched on Bunker Hill, holding steady atop Boston as the British marched closer and closer, but refusing to engage because they had been ordered by their commanding officer, “Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes!” That was us throughout the first six weeks of the season, as we waited not so patiently for Saturday’s Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year of the Century Mega Bowl, pitting UMass against …


“Don’t fire until you see the Golden Flashes of their eyes!”

“But, sir, we can’t see their eyes!”

“Why not?”

“Because their eye sockets and cheeks are so bruised and swollen from their trips to Florida State and Oklahoma!”


So, the answer to the question that we started with “So” in the intro to these rankings is that, yes, you can be a back-to-back Coveted Fifth Spot team. And all you Texas Longhorns fans can make your thank-you checks out to the Ryan McGee Key West Retirement Fund.


Last week I failed to have the Woof Pack in these rankings and I heard from a lot of folks in Reno about that, angry that their hometown team wasn’t included. But they didn’t see the comments I received during the weeks prior from folks upset that they were included. One of them was tied around the neck of a horse’s head that was in my bed, signed by someone named “Tahoe Tommy.”


I have also heard from a lot of people in central Tennessee, wondering why I haven’t had the Mob from Murfreesboro in these rankings more, especially since their only win of the year was over Nevada, and that was by only one point. One of those notes was tied around the neck of a possum’s head that was in my bed, signed by someone named “Chevy Tahoe Tammy.”


Oklahoma State’s leading passer, rusher and receiver have all combined for exactly zero touchdowns. The last time there was this little scoring in Stillwater was when I visited town for a Beanie Babies resale convention.


Let’s give credit to the Niners, who have played games on seemingly every day of the week but Saturday to get national TV exposure. It’s the perfect Halloween horror programming.


The Emus barely edged out Northern Ill-ugh-noise in a #MACtion showdown for the Not So Coveted Tenth Spot. But that was merely a virtual showdown. This weekend they will meet in an actual showdown, kicking off 1½ hours before the UMass-Kent State game. Let’s call it the Throw Pillow Fight of the Week, because it’s the slightly smaller pillow we have to move to get to the actual pillow.

Waiting list: UCLA Boo-ins, Northern Ill-ugh-noise, UTEPid, Bah-stan Cawledge, UNC Chapel Bill, Georgia State Not Southern, Stanfird, My Hammy of Ohio, South Alabama Redundancies, Give Me Liberty Or Give Me 1-4, the definition of a catch.

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Jets lock up forward Connor with $96M extension

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Jets lock up forward Connor with M extension

The Winnipeg Jets took care of business ahead of their regular-season opener, signing top forward Kyle Connor to an eight-year, $96 million extension on Wednesday.

It’s the richest contract in Jets franchise history, earned by one of their most consistent performers. Drafted by Winnipeg 17th overall in 2015, Connor has scored 30 or more goals in seven of his eight full NHL seasons to date and surpassed the 40-goal mark in two of his past four campaigns.

In 2024-25 he collected a career-high 56 assists and 97 points in 82 games and ranks top 20 among all NHL skaters in goals (153) and points (331) since 2021.

Winnipeg finished atop the league standings last season with a 116-point effort that only carried them to a second-round playoff defeat against Dallas. Keeping Connor in the fold was critical for the Jets to maintain their position as a contending team in the Western Conference. Winnipeg’s core includes Hart and Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, top center Mark Scheifele and blueliner Josh Morrissey.

Connor, 28, is now one of four Jets — including Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi and Neal Pionk — locked in through 2030.

This could be the start of a big year for Connor. He represented Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off in February and was part of their Olympic orientation camp over the summer ahead of NHL players returning to participate in the 2026 Milan-Cortina Games.

Winnipeg hosts its first game of the season on Thursday at home against the Stars.

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Oilers follow McDavid extension with Ekholm deal

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Oilers follow McDavid extension with Ekholm deal

Days after signing superstar Connor McDavid to a two-year extension, the Edmonton Oilers have locked up one of the most important championship players around him in defenseman Mattias Ekholm.

Ekholm, 35, signed a three-year, $12 million extension Wednesday that starts in the 2026-27 season. Ekholm is in the final season of the four-year contract signed with the Nashville Predators in 2021 that carries a $6 million average annual value. He would have been an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Entering his 15th NHL season, Ekholm had 33 points (9 goals, 24 assists) in 65 games last season for the Oilers. His 22:11 in average ice time was third on the team. One of Edmonton’s primary penalty killers, Ekholm also sees time on the power play.

The Swedish defenseman’s comportment and facial hair also inspired a group of Edmonton fans called “The Dancing Ekholms,” who attend games in horned helmets, kilts and war paint to honor their “Viking Warrior.”

Ekholm’s signing comes two days after McDavid agreed to a two-year contract extension with a $12.5 million AAV, a steep hometown discount that gives general manager Stan Bowman cap flexibility to build a winner around the star center.

Bowman immediately went to work, signing Ekholm and defenseman Jake Walman (7 years, $49 million) to contract extensions. The Oilers now have nine players signed through the end of McDavid’s deal in 2028.

Edmonton is coming off its second straight defeat to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final. The Oilers have played in the postseason in six straight seasons.

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