Rivian (RIVN) will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday after the market closes. Although the EV maker aggressively cut costs last year, a supply shortage derailed some momentum. Rivian still stands by its goal of achieving its first positive gross profit in Q4. Here’s what to expect from the report.

Rivian expects a positive gross profit in Q4 2024 earnings

Rivian beat expectations with 14,183 vehicles delivered in the final three months of 2024, bringing the annual total to 51,579.

Although it was enough for Rivian to meet its full-year guidance of 50,500 and 52,000, it was only slightly more than the 50,122 the company delivered in 2023.

After a supply shortage began in the third quarter, Rivian cut its full-year production target to 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles in 2024, down from 57,000. Rivian topped its (revised) target with 49,476 units produced at its Normal, IL plant last year.

Rivian’s deliveries and production include the R1S, R1T, and electric delivery and commercial vans. Despite the slower-than-expected growth last year, the company still expects profits to improve.

Last month, the EV maker confirmed that “The previously discussed shortage of a shared component on the R1 and RCV platforms is no longer a constraint” on production.

Rivian also said it’s still on track to post its first positive gross profit in Q4. CFO Claire McDonough told analysts on the company’s third-quarter earnings call that Rivian expects “a modest gross profit” in the final three months of 2024.

However, McDonough clarified that regulatory credit sales, lower costs thanks to plant upgrades and improved supply contracts, and other revenue outside vehicle sales would mainly drive the achievement.

Rivian’s net loss fell to $1.1 billion in the third quarter, with a gross profit loss of $392 million. Although the company lost around $39,000 on each vehicle delivered in the third quarter, this is a drastic improvement from 2022, when Rivian lost over $139,000 per unit.

Including a $1 billion convertible note from Volkswagen, Rivian ended the third quarter with $6.7 billion in cash and equivalents.

According to Estimize, Wall St expects Rivian to post Q4 revenue of $1.4 billion, up from $1.3 billion in Q4 2023, and a loss of 0.68 per share (EPS) compared to a loss of $1.36 per share.

Prepping for R2

After launching its new joint venture with VW, Scaringe said the partnership was a “meaningful financial opportunity” worth up to $5.8 billion.

According to Rivian’s Chief Software Officer, Wassym Bensaid, other OEMs are now “knocking on our door” about similar supply deals for EV tech and software.

Rivian’s biggest growth driver is still yet to come. The company is preparing to launch its mid-size electric SUV, the R2, early next year. It will initially be built at Rivian’s Normal, IL facility, but production is expected to significantly expand with plans to open a second plant in Georgia.

The R2 will start at around $45,000, or nearly half the cost of the current R1T ($71,700) and R1S ($77,700). Rivian will also build a smaller, more affordable R3 crossover and high-performance R3X at the Georgia facility.

Rivian plans to build the plant in two stages, each adding 200,000 units of annual production capacity. Rivian says the R2 and R3 are “critical drivers in the company’s long-term growth and profitability.”

Although Rivian secured a $6.6 billion federal loan for the new EV plant just before Trump took office, the funding is now in jeopardy after the Administration announced plans to freeze federal loans.

Georgia Gov Brian Kemp told Channel 2 news this week that Rivian “secured that loan at the tail end of the Biden administration and, you know, I think there’s no secret that the Trump administration is taking a look at all those things.” He added, “So I don’t really know where that stands right now.”

Rivian is confident the funds will be there next year when they go to draw them. A spokesperson said, “We’re working hard to onshore US manufacturing, providing thousands of American jobs here in Georgia.”

Rivian’s stock is up since reporting third-quarter earnings in November. However, RIVN shares are still down 12% over the past 12 months and 90% from their all-time high shortly after going public in November 2021.

Check back tomorrow after the market closes for a full breakdown of Rivian’s Q4 2024 earnings report.

Solar panel maker Heliene and steel solar panel frame maker Origami Solar have partnered to offer US-made, steel-framed solar panels in North America.

Starting in April 2025, Heliene’s 144 and 156 half-cut bifacial modules will be available with Origami Solar’s steel frames alongside existing aluminum options. The move aims to make solar panels stronger, more affordable, and less reliant on imported materials in the face of the Trump administration’s plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports beginning March 12, 2025.

Origami Solar’s steel frames provide notable advantages over traditional aluminum ones. They’re stronger, making them more resilient against extreme weather. Additionally, since the frames are produced domestically, they help avoid supply chain disruptions and additional import costs. The shift to steel also significantly reduces the carbon footprint of the panels, with over a 90% decrease in embodied carbon compared to foreign aluminum frames.

Martin Pochtaruk, CEO of Heliene, says that Origami’s steel frames are “affordable and sustainable.” He continued:

This partnership aligns with our mission to strengthen the domestic solar supply chain while optimizing product value and minimizing environmental impact. We’re proud to offer steel frames as an option for customers seeking these benefits.

Heliene, which is headquartered in Canada and has a solar panel factory in Minnesota, is doubling down on US manufacturing partnerships, recently working with SOLARCYCLE for recycled glass, Suniva for US-made silicon solar cells, and NorSun for US-made silicon wafers.

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After scrapping plans to build a $2.6 billion battery energy storage system factory in Georgia, FREYR Battery (NYSE: FREY) has rebranded itself as T1 Energy (NYSE: TE).

FREYR turned T1 Energy also has a new strategy: It says it’s committed to “becoming a vertically integrated US solar + battery storage leader from its new corporate headquarters in Austin, Texas.” T1 Energy expects to start trading under its new NYSE symbols on March 3.

In August, then-CEO Tom Einar Jensen told investors that a surplus of cheap Chinese batteries had made it harder to raise money to manufacture batteries, so the company switched its focus to solar panel manufacturing.

On December 24, FREYR announced closing its acquisition of China-headquartered Trina Solar’s 5-gigawatt (GW), 1.35 million-square-foot solar panel factory in Wilmer, Texas. The company renamed the factory G1 Dallas, and it employs more than 1,000 people. T1 says the solar panel production ramp is on schedule.

Daniel Barcelo, T1’s chairman of the board and chief executive officer, said, “More than 80% of new US electricity capacity in 2024 was solar and batteries. T1 plans to lead in the solar and battery markets by enabling the growth in energy supply required to support AI, data centers, reshoring, and electrification – to restore American industrial capacity and leadership in future advanced industries.”

T1 is moving forward with site selection for its upcoming US solar cell factory, G2, and expects to lock in a location by Q1 2025. Construction is still on track to kick off in mid-2025.

Read more: Chinese solar giant Trina sells its Texas factory a week after it opens

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