Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure to quickly lift defence spending to 2.5% of GDP or face new military cuts this year – even as he considers deploying troops to Ukraine, Sky News understands.
Defence sources said such an increase – which would amount to about an extra £5bn annually – is still far short of what is required to rebuild and transform the armed forces, stressing that an ultimate hike to at least 3% of national income would be necessary.
But the sources said a rapid rise in investment to the government’s promised target of 2.5% of GDP, from 2.3% at present, should prevent new swingeing reductions in capabilities – just as Donald Trump orders European militaries to be stronger.
“The truth is there needs to be more money now or else prepare for further cuts,” said one military insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
A second defence source said: “We know the government is in a difficult financial position. But getting to 2.5% sooner rather than later would be enormously beneficial for their relationship with the new US administration, and the UK’s leadership role within NATO.”
The prime minister has pledged to set a path to investing 2.5% of GDP on defence but he has yet to say when this commitment will be announced, let alone by what date the target will be met.
Defence sources said they believe the Treasury wants to push the timeline out to the very end of this parliament – a delay that would leave the armed forces to “wither on the vine”.
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“It is just not serious,” said a third defence source, sounding exasperated.
The UK position on defence spending came into sharp focus last week as European allies reeled from a barrage of criticism by the new Trump administration for their over-reliance on the US to defend Europe and support Ukraine.
Britain – a nuclear power – presents itself as the strongest European military within the NATO alliance and boasts of a special relationship with the US.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer has said he is ‘ready and willing’ to put UK troops on the ground in Ukraine to enforce any peace deal. Pic: PA
Yet, Sir Keir has stuck with his 2.5% target even as Mr Trump calls on allies to boost defence expenditure to 5% and take on a much greater responsibility for security in Europe.
Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, says the goal for all 32 allies should be “north of 3%”.
The reality of Europe’s weakness on defence has been brutally exposed by Mr Trump’s approach to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, with the president sidelining the UK, the Europeans and Kyiv.
But, given the hollowed-out state of the UK armed forces, an announcement by the prime minister that he was considering sending British soldiers to Ukraine to help secure the peace as part of any ceasefire deal raised eyebrows within defence circles.
One insider questioned how Mr Starmer could propose such a challenging deployment without explaining how he was going to fill the army’s gaping gaps in weapons and manpower.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said any international security force of British and other foreign troops would need to be about 110,000-strong.
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Zelenskyy warns of Russian army ‘danger’ to Europe
The UK would struggle to sustain a deployment of several thousand soldiers for any enduring length of time and would have to give up other commitments, such as a battlegroup of around 900 military personnel based in Estonia on a NATO mission to deter Russian aggression.
With defence matters in focus, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the armed forces, and his fellow chiefs met with Sir Keir on Friday to talk to him about military capabilities.
It is highly unusual for such a meeting to take place and signals a desire by the prime minister to understand the thinking of his top brass.
The meeting came as an external team of experts, led by Lord Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary and former secretary general of NATO, was putting the finishing touches to a sweeping review of defence that the government has said will be published this spring.
The reviewers were tasked with setting out how to transform the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force to meet future threats, but their ability to deliver has been constrained from the start by Downing Street saying this must be achieved within a defence spending target of 2.5% of GDP.
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A government spokesperson said any suggestion the prime minister was considering raising defence spending beyond 2.5% “is purely speculation”.
The spokesperson said: “The Strategic Defence Review is wide-ranging, ensuring we look hard at the threats we face and the capabilities we need to meet the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century. As we have consistently said, the review will be published in the spring.
“To ensure the UK is prepared to deal with the changing threat, our budget increased defence spending by £2.9bn for next year and we are committed to setting a path to 2.5% of GDP on defence.”
Three Iranian men have been charged with offences under the National Security Act in the UK, police have said.
The trio have been charged with engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service between 14 August 2024 and 16 February 2025, following an investigation by counter-terror police.
The Metropolitan Police said the three men are Mostafa Sepahvand, 39, Farhad Javadi Manesh, 44, and Shapoor Qalehali Khani Noori, 55.
The foreign state to which the charges relate is Iran, police said.
All three men will appear at Westminster Magistrates Court on Saturday, the force added.
Sepahvand, of St John’s Wood, London, has also been charged with “surveillance, reconnaissance and open-source research” with the intention of “committing serious violence against a person in the UK”, according to a police statement.
Meanwhile, Manesh, of Kensal Rise, London, and Noori, of Ealing, London, have also been charged with “engaging in conduct, namely surveillance and reconnaissance, with the intention that acts, namely serious violence against a person in the UK, would be committed by others”.
Commander Dominic Murphy, from the Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command, described the charges as “extremely serious”.
“Since the men were arrested two weeks ago, detectives have been working around the clock and we have worked closely with colleagues in the Crown Prosecution Service to reach this point,” he said.
“Now that these men have been charged, I would urge people not to speculate about this case, so that the criminal justice process can run its course.”
A fourth Iranian national aged 31 who was arrested was released with no further action on Thursday.
In a separate unrelated probe, counter-terror officers arrested five Iranian men, aged between 29 and 46, during raids across various locations in Greater Manchester, London, and Swindon earlier this month.
Last October, MI5 director general Ken McCallum said the UK intelligence agency had responded to 20 “potentially lethal” Iran-backed plots since 2022, warning of the risk of an “increase or broadening of Iranian state aggression in the UK”.
Two firefighters and a member of the public have died in a large fire in Bicester, the fire service announced.
The firefighters died in the inferno at a former RAF base in Oxfordshire, which now hosts historic motoring and aviation centre Bicester Motion.
The local fire service was called to the scene at 6.39pm last night.
Chief Fire Officer Rob MacDougall said: “It is with a very heavy heart that we today report the loss of two of our firefighters. Families have been informed and are being supported.
“Our thoughts are with them at this most difficult of times and we ask for privacy to be respected.
“We cannot release any details at present but will provide further information as soon as we can.”
Two other firefighters sustained serious injuries and are currently being treated in hospital, Oxfordshire County Council said in a statement.
Footage shared on social media shows plumes of smoke billowing into the sky and flames swallowing the large building.
Image: Clouds of smoke from the fire were billowing into the sky last night. Pic:@kajer87X
Image: Two firefighters and one other person died in the fire, while two more firefighters were seriously injured. Pic: PA
Ten fire crews attended the incident, with four remaining at the scene. The fire is still ongoing, but it is considered under control.
Local residents were advised to remain indoors and keep their windows shut, but this advice has now been lifted.
Bicester Motion said in a statement it would be closed today and over the weekend.
The cause of the fire is not yet known.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.