Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure to quickly lift defence spending to 2.5% of GDP or face new military cuts this year – even as he considers deploying troops to Ukraine, Sky News understands.
Defence sources said such an increase – which would amount to about an extra £5bn annually – is still far short of what is required to rebuild and transform the armed forces, stressing that an ultimate hike to at least 3% of national income would be necessary.
But the sources said a rapid rise in investment to the government’s promised target of 2.5% of GDP, from 2.3% at present, should prevent new swingeing reductions in capabilities – just as Donald Trump orders European militaries to be stronger.
“The truth is there needs to be more money now or else prepare for further cuts,” said one military insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
A second defence source said: “We know the government is in a difficult financial position. But getting to 2.5% sooner rather than later would be enormously beneficial for their relationship with the new US administration, and the UK’s leadership role within NATO.”
The prime minister has pledged to set a path to investing 2.5% of GDP on defence but he has yet to say when this commitment will be announced, let alone by what date the target will be met.
Defence sources said they believe the Treasury wants to push the timeline out to the very end of this parliament – a delay that would leave the armed forces to “wither on the vine”.
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“It is just not serious,” said a third defence source, sounding exasperated.
The UK position on defence spending came into sharp focus last week as European allies reeled from a barrage of criticism by the new Trump administration for their over-reliance on the US to defend Europe and support Ukraine.
Britain – a nuclear power – presents itself as the strongest European military within the NATO alliance and boasts of a special relationship with the US.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer has said he is ‘ready and willing’ to put UK troops on the ground in Ukraine to enforce any peace deal. Pic: PA
Yet, Sir Keir has stuck with his 2.5% target even as Mr Trump calls on allies to boost defence expenditure to 5% and take on a much greater responsibility for security in Europe.
Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, says the goal for all 32 allies should be “north of 3%”.
The reality of Europe’s weakness on defence has been brutally exposed by Mr Trump’s approach to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, with the president sidelining the UK, the Europeans and Kyiv.
But, given the hollowed-out state of the UK armed forces, an announcement by the prime minister that he was considering sending British soldiers to Ukraine to help secure the peace as part of any ceasefire deal raised eyebrows within defence circles.
One insider questioned how Mr Starmer could propose such a challenging deployment without explaining how he was going to fill the army’s gaping gaps in weapons and manpower.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said any international security force of British and other foreign troops would need to be about 110,000-strong.
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1:13
Zelenskyy warns of Russian army ‘danger’ to Europe
The UK would struggle to sustain a deployment of several thousand soldiers for any enduring length of time and would have to give up other commitments, such as a battlegroup of around 900 military personnel based in Estonia on a NATO mission to deter Russian aggression.
With defence matters in focus, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the armed forces, and his fellow chiefs met with Sir Keir on Friday to talk to him about military capabilities.
It is highly unusual for such a meeting to take place and signals a desire by the prime minister to understand the thinking of his top brass.
The meeting came as an external team of experts, led by Lord Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary and former secretary general of NATO, was putting the finishing touches to a sweeping review of defence that the government has said will be published this spring.
The reviewers were tasked with setting out how to transform the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force to meet future threats, but their ability to deliver has been constrained from the start by Downing Street saying this must be achieved within a defence spending target of 2.5% of GDP.
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2:23
Europe faces new reality
A government spokesperson said any suggestion the prime minister was considering raising defence spending beyond 2.5% “is purely speculation”.
The spokesperson said: “The Strategic Defence Review is wide-ranging, ensuring we look hard at the threats we face and the capabilities we need to meet the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century. As we have consistently said, the review will be published in the spring.
“To ensure the UK is prepared to deal with the changing threat, our budget increased defence spending by £2.9bn for next year and we are committed to setting a path to 2.5% of GDP on defence.”
In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).
Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”
Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”
Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”
Fast-forward 15 minutes.
Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”
(Pause)
Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”
Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.
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6:36
Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.
In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.
As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.
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9:11
Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’
For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.
So what can be done?
Well, the government could change the rules.
Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.
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5:31
Welfare: ‘Didn’t get process right’ – PM
A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.
Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.
That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.
The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.
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16:02
Is Corbyn an existential risk to Labour?
The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.
Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.
In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.
If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.
And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.
The UK has re-established diplomatic ties with Syria, David Lammy has said, as he made the first visit to the country by a British minister for 14 years.
The foreign secretary visited Damascus and met with interim president Ahmed al Sharaa, also the leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and foreign minister Asaad al Shaibani.
In a statement, Mr Lammy said a “stable Syria is in the UK’s interests” and added: “I’ve seen first-hand the remarkable progress Syrians have made in rebuilding their lives and their country.
“After over a decade of conflict, there is renewed hope for the Syrian people.
“The UK is re-establishing diplomatic relations because it is in our interests to support the new government to deliver their commitment to build a stable, more secure and prosperous future for all Syrians.”
Image: Foreign Secretary David Lammy with Syria’s interim president Ahmed al Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has also announced a £94.5m support package for urgent humanitarian aid and to support the country’s long-term recovery, after a number of British sanctions against the country were lifted in April.
While HTS is still classified as a proscribed terror group, Sir Keir Starmer said last year that it could be removed from the list.
The Syrian president’s office also said on Saturday that the president and Mr Lammy discussed co-operation, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East.
Since Assad fled Syria in December, a transitional government headed by Mr al Sharaa was announced in March and a number of western countries have restored ties.
In May, US President Donald Trump said the United States would lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and normalise relations during a speech at the US-Saudi investment conference.
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1:12
From May: Trump says US will end sanctions for Syria
He said he wanted to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed.
“I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”
Secret Service quietly amasses one of the world’s largest crypto cold wallets with $400 million seized, exposing scams through blockchain sleuthing and VPN missteps.