Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government face being voted out of office next week, as Germany heads to the polls in an election dominated by Ukraine, energy prices and the rise of the far right.
Here’s everything you need to know as Europe’s biggest economy goes to the polls.
When is the election and when will we know the result?
Elections will be held on 23 February across Germany.
Polls close at 6pm, after which the first results exit polls are published (they aren’t allowed before that time).
Additional, more precise projections follow soon after, based on votes counted at a handful of polling stations.
Generally, the preliminary official results are published on the night of the election, based on results from every polling station.
Image: Olaf Scholz speaks ahead of the German election. Pic: Reuters
Who are the main parties?
Germany has two centrist, “big-tent” parties: Mr Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the opposition conservatives, made up of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Both of them have lost support in recent years, and smaller parties have gained ground such as the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Also running are the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).
Image: Friedrich Merz could be the next German chancellor. Pic: AP
Who are the main party leaders?
Olaf Scholz, 66, from the SPD is the current chancellor of Germany.
He was given the post in December 2021 and has led the country through various crises, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But his three-party coalition with the Greens and the FDP was fraught with argument and his popularity has fallen significantly during his time as chancellor.
While he is again running for the top job, he is expected to be voted out of office, based on polling.
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Germans protest against right-wing parties
Friedrich Merz, 69, whose opposition bloc has been ahead in the polls, is an experienced politician and a familiar face in the German conservative movement.
He was famously pushed aside by former chancellor Angela Merkel, but is now back and expected to win the top job after returning to politics and promising a break from Ms Merkel’s centrist approach.
Mr Merz drew controversy this year after his motion on migration passed with the support of the AfD – seen by some as breaking a taboo against cooperating with the far-right party. He continues to reject going into coalition with them.
He has positioned himself as someone who could get along with Donald Trump, despite previously calling out the US leader’s response to his 2020 election defeat.
Image: Alice Weidel’s AfD have gained popularity. Pic: AP
The AfD’s leader Alice Weidel has overseen a rise in support for her party and will now lead them into the election.
Ms Weidel will fight the election with a manifesto that follows a familiar pattern from other successful populist campaigns in Europe and beyond – contempt for mainstream politicians, anger over levels of irregular immigration, a desire to rein in the power of the European Union and dismay over the spread of so-called woke values.
Image: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
What are the key issues in the German elections?
Ukraine has been a key consideration in European politics for years now and these polls are no different.
All of Germany’s mainstream parties favour aid to Ukraine, but Mr Scholz has been seen as taking a more cautious tone than the conservatives, Greens and FDP. Mr Scholz, for instance, has so far refused to supply long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv while the three other parties support sending them.
The AfD want weapons deliveries to Ukraine stopped and a resumption of good relations with Russia.
The war has forced Germany to re-evaluate its attitude towards its defence and military in a way it has not had to since the Second World War.
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Germany has changed its attitude to defence
The economy is also central to the election, in particular the issue of whether to reform Germany’s constitutionally enshrined debt brake to allow for higher public spending.
The CDU, SPD and Greens are all in favour of expanding renewable energy to reduce costs, but differ in how they would achieve that. In contrast, the AfD opposes renewable energy subsidies and advocates for unrestricted coal-fired power plant operations.
A series of violent attacks linked to foreign suspects in Germany have compounded public concerns over security and migration, leading to political parties demanding stricter measures on migration.
Both the CDU and SPD have toughened their position on the issue, while the anti-Islam, anti-migration AfD has called for borders to be closed
What are the polls saying?
Mr Merz’s conservatives have been ahead in the polls for more than two years and his bloc is at 29%, according to an INSA survey published on 8 February.
They are followed by the AfD on 21% and Mr Scholz’s SPD on 16%, with the Greens on 12% and BSW on 6%.
Despite the rise in popularity of the AfD, they are unlikely to be involved in any coalition government as all the other parties have ruled out any cooperation with them. That could mean that coalition negotiations after the elections take more time, if the AfD does indeed win a sizeable number of seats on Sunday.
How are seats in the Bundestag allocated?
Germany’s system is a bit different to the UK’s Each voter casts two votes in the Bundestag (parliament) elections – one for a candidate in their constituency and one for a political party.
The 630 seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties based on what proportion of second votes they received.
Once each party has been awarded a number of seats matching their national vote share, their candidates are ranked from the most to the fewest number of constituency votes received in a list and it’s from this that their new Bundestag members are chosen.
The new Bundestag then elects a chancellor by majority vote.
Donald Trump has announced a 10% trade tariff on all imports from the UK – as he unleashed sweeping tariffs across the globe.
Speaking at a White House event entitled “Make America Wealthy Again”, the president held up a chart detailing the worst offenders – which also showed the new tariffs the US would be imposing.
“This is Liberation Day,” he told a cheering audience of supporters, while hitting out at foreign “cheaters”.
He claimed “trillions” of dollars from the “reciprocal” levies he was imposing on others’ trade barriers would provide relief for the US taxpayer and restore US jobs and factories.
Mr Trump said the US has been “looted, pillaged, raped, plundered” by other nations.
Image: Pic: AP
His first tariff announcement was a 25% duty on all car imports from midnight – 5am on Thursday, UK time.
Mr Trump confirmed the European Union would face a 20% reciprocal tariff on all other imports. China’s rate was set at 34%.
The UK’s rate of 10% was perhaps a shot across the bows over the country’s 20% VAT rate, though the president’s board suggested a 10% tariff imbalance between the two nations.
It was also confirmed that further US tariffs were planned on some individual sectors including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical mineral imports.
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Trump’s tariffs explained
The ramping up of duties promises to be painful for the global economy. Tariffs on steel and aluminium are already in effect.
The UK government signalled there would be no immediate retaliation.
Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: “We will always act in the best interests of UK businesses and consumers. That’s why, throughout the last few weeks, the government has been fully focused on negotiating an economic deal with the United States that strengthens our existing fair and balanced trading relationship.
“The US is our closest ally, so our approach is to remain calm and committed to doing this deal, which we hope will mitigate the impact of what has been announced today.
“We have a range of tools at our disposal and we will not hesitate to act. We will continue to engage with UK businesses including on their assessment of the impact of any further steps we take.
“Nobody wants a trade war and our intention remains to secure a deal. But nothing is off the table and the government will do everything necessary to defend the UK’s national interest.”
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Who showed up for Trump’s tariff address?
The EU has pledged to retaliate, which is a problem for Northern Ireland.
Should that scenario play out, the region faces the prospect of rising prices because all its imports are tied to EU rules under post-Brexit trading arrangements.
It means US goods shipped to Northern Ireland would be subject to the EU’s reprisals.
The impact of a trade war would be expected to be widely negative, with tit-for-tat tariffs risking job losses, a ramping up of prices and cooling of global trade.
Research for the Institute for Public Policy Research has suggested more than 25,000 direct jobs in the UK car manufacturing industry alone could be at risk from the tariffs on car exports to the US.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) had said the tariff costs could not be absorbed by manufacturers and may lead to a review of output.
The tariffs now on UK exports pose a big risk to growth and the so-called headroom Chancellor Rachel Reeves was forced to restore to the public finances at the spring statement, risking further spending cuts or tax rises ahead to meet her fiscal rules.
A member of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), David Miles, told MPs on Tuesday that US tariffs at 20% or 25% maintained on the UK for five years would “knock out all the headroom the government currently has”.
But he added that a “very limited tariff war” that the UK stays out of could be “mildly positive”.
He said: “There’s a bit of trade that will get diverted to the UK, and some of the exports from China, for example, that would have gone to the US, they’ll be looking for a home for them in the rest of the world.
“And stuff would be available in the UK a bit cheaper than otherwise would have been. So there is one, not central scenario at all, which is very, very mildly potentially positive to the UK. All the other ones which involve the UK facing tariffs are negative, and they’re negative to very different extents.”
Israel is beginning a major expansion of its military operation in Gaza and will seize large areas of the territory, the country’s defence minister said.
Israel Katz said in a statement that there would be a large scale evacuation of the Palestinian population from fighting areas.
In a post on X, he wrote: “I call on the residents of Gaza to act now to remove Hamas and return all the hostages. This is the only way to end the war.”
He said the offensive was “expanding to crush and clean the area of terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and capture large areas that will be added to the security zones of the State of Israel”.
The expansion of Israel’s military operation in Gaza deepens its renewed offensive.
The deal had seen the release of dozens of hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, but collapsed before it could move to phase two, which would have involved the release of all hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
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26 March: Anti-Hamas chants heard at protest in Gaza
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had already issued evacuation warnings to Gazans living around the southern city of Rafah and towards the city of Khan Yunis, telling them to move to the al Mawasi area on the shore, which was previously designated a humanitarian zone.
Israeli forces have already set up a significant buffer zone within Gaza, having expanded an area around the edge of the territory that had existed before the war, as well as a large security area in the so-called Netzarim corridor through the middle of Gaza.
This latest conflict began when Hamas launched an attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages.
The ensuing Israeli offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
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Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza
Aid group Doctors Without Borders warned on Wednesday that Israel’s month-long siege of Gaza means some critical medications are now short in supply and are running out, leaving Palestinians at risk of losing vital healthcare.
“The Israeli authorities’ have condemned the people of Gaza to unbearable suffering with their deadly siege,” said Myriam Laaroussi, the group’s emergency coordinator in Gaza.
“This deliberate infliction of harm on people is like a slow death; it must end immediately.”
“Liberation day” was due to be on 1 April. But Donald Trump decided to shift it by a day because he didn’t want anyone to think it was an April fool.
It is no joke for him and it is no joke for governments globally as they brace for his tariff announcements.
It is stunning how little we know about the plans to be announced in the Rose Garden of the White House later today.
It was telling that we didn’t see the President at all on Tuesday. He and all his advisers were huddled in the West Wing, away from the cameras, finalising the tariff plans.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the so-called ‘measured voice’. A former hedge fund manager, he has argued for targeted not blanket tariffs.
Peter Navarro is Trump’s senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing. A long-time aide and confidante of the president, he is a true loyalist and a firm believer in the merits of tariffs.
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His economic views are well beyond mainstream economic thought – precisely why he appeals to Trump.
The third key character is Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary and the biggest proponent of the full-throttle liberation day tariff juggernaut.
The businessman, philanthropist, Trump fundraiser and billionaire (net worth ranging between $1bn and $2bn) has been among the closest to Trump over the past 73 days of this presidency – frequently in and out of the West Wing.
If anything goes wrong, observers here in Washington suspect Trump will make Lutnick the fall guy.
And what if it does all go wrong? What if Trump is actually the April fool?
“It’s going to work…” his press secretary said when asked if it could all be a disaster, driving up the cost of living for Americans and creating global economic chaos.
“The president has a brilliant team who have been studying these issues for decades and we are focussed on restoring the global age of America…” Karoline Leavitt said.
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‘Days of US being ripped off are over’
Dancing to the president’s tune
My sense is that we should see “liberation day” not as the moment it’s all over in terms of negotiations for countries globally as they try to carve out deals with the White House. Rather it should be seen as the start.
Trump, as always, wants to be seen as the one calling the shots, taking control, seizing the limelight. He wants the world to dance to his tune. Today is his moment.
But beyond today, alongside the inevitable tit-for-tat retaliation, expect to see efforts by nations to seek carve-outs and to throw bones to Trump; to identify areas where trade policies can be tweaked to placate the president.
Even small offerings which change little in a material sense could give Trump the chance to spin and present himself as the winning deal maker he craves to be.
One significant challenge for foreign governments and their diplomats in Washington has been engaging the president himself with proposals he might like.
Negotiations take place with a White House team who are themselves unsure where the president will ultimately land. It’s resulted in unsatisfactory speculative negotiations.
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Treasury minister: ‘We’ll do everything to secure a deal’
Too much faith placed in the ‘special relationship’?
The UK believes it’s in a better position than most other countries globally. It sits outside the EU giving it autonomy in its trade policy, its deficit with the US is small, and Trump loves Britain.
It’s true too that the UK government has managed to accelerate trade conversations with the White House on a tariff-free trade partnership. Trump’s threats have forced conversations that would normally sit in the long grass for months.
Yet, for now, the conversations have yielded nothing firm. That’s a worry for sure. Did Keir Starmer have too much faith in the ‘special relationship’?
Downing Street will have identified areas where they can tweak trade policy to placate Trump. Cars maybe? Currently US cars into the UK carry a 10% tariff. Digital services perhaps?
US food? Unlikely – there are non-tariff barriers on US food because the consensus seems to be that chlorinated chicken and the like isn’t something UK consumers want.
Easier access to UK financial services maybe? More visas for Americans?
For now though, everyone is waiting to see what Trump does before they either retaliate or relent and lower their own market barriers.