Rivian (RIVN) eyes first positive gross profit in Q4: Here’s what to expect from its earnings
Rivian (RIVN) will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday after the market closes. Although the EV maker aggressively cut costs last year, a supply shortage derailed some momentum. Rivian still stands by its goal of achieving its first positive gross profit in Q4. Here’s what to expect from the report.
Rivian expects a positive gross profit in Q4 2024 earnings
Rivian beat expectations with 14,183 vehicles delivered in the final three months of 2024, bringing the annual total to 51,579.
Although it was enough for Rivian to meet its full-year guidance of 50,500 and 52,000, it was only slightly more than the 50,122 the company delivered in 2023.
After a supply shortage began in the third quarter, Rivian cut its full-year production target to 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles in 2024, down from 57,000. Rivian topped its (revised) target with 49,476 units produced at its Normal, IL plant last year.
Rivian’s deliveries and production include the R1S, R1T, and electric delivery and commercial vans. Despite the slower-than-expected growth last year, the company still expects profits to improve.
Last month, the EV maker confirmed that “The previously discussed shortage of a shared component on the R1 and RCV platforms is no longer a constraint” on production.
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Full-Year 2024 | 2024 guidance | |
| Deliveries | 13,588 | 13,790 | 10,018 | 14,183 | 51,579 | 50,500 – 52,000 |
| Production | 13,980 | 9,612 | 13,157 | 12,727 | 49,476 | 47,000 – 49,000 |
Rivian also said it’s still on track to post its first positive gross profit in Q4. CFO Claire McDonough told analysts on the company’s third-quarter earnings call that Rivian expects “a modest gross profit” in the final three months of 2024.
However, McDonough clarified that regulatory credit sales, lower costs thanks to plant upgrades and improved supply contracts, and other revenue outside vehicle sales would mainly drive the achievement.
| Q3 ’22 | Q4 ’22 | Q1 ’23 | Q2 ’23 | Q3 ’23 | Q4 ’23 | Q1 ’24 | Q2 ’24 | Q3 ’24 | |
| Rivian loss per vehicle | $139,277 | $124,162 | $67,329 | $32,594 | $30,500 | $43,372 | $38,784 | $32,705 | $39,130 |
Rivian’s net loss fell to $1.1 billion in the third quarter, with a gross profit loss of $392 million. Although the company lost around $39,000 on each vehicle delivered in the third quarter, this is a drastic improvement from 2022, when Rivian lost over $139,000 per unit.
Including a $1 billion convertible note from Volkswagen, Rivian ended the third quarter with $6.7 billion in cash and equivalents.
According to Estimize, Wall St expects Rivian to post Q4 revenue of $1.4 billion, up from $1.3 billion in Q4 2023, and a loss of 0.68 per share (EPS) compared to a loss of $1.36 per share.
Prepping for R2
After launching its new joint venture with VW, Scaringe said the partnership was a “meaningful financial opportunity” worth up to $5.8 billion.
According to Rivian’s Chief Software Officer, Wassym Bensaid, other OEMs are now “knocking on our door” about similar supply deals for EV tech and software.
Rivian’s biggest growth driver is still yet to come. The company is preparing to launch its mid-size electric SUV, the R2, early next year. It will initially be built at Rivian’s Normal, IL facility, but production is expected to significantly expand with plans to open a second plant in Georgia.
The R2 will start at around $45,000, or nearly half the cost of the current R1T ($71,700) and R1S ($77,700). Rivian will also build a smaller, more affordable R3 crossover and high-performance R3X at the Georgia facility.
Rivian plans to build the plant in two stages, each adding 200,000 units of annual production capacity. Rivian says the R2 and R3 are “critical drivers in the company’s long-term growth and profitability.”
Although Rivian secured a $6.6 billion federal loan for the new EV plant just before Trump took office, the funding is now in jeopardy after the Administration announced plans to freeze federal loans.
Georgia Gov Brian Kemp told Channel 2 news this week that Rivian “secured that loan at the tail end of the Biden administration and, you know, I think there’s no secret that the Trump administration is taking a look at all those things.” He added, “So I don’t really know where that stands right now.”
Rivian is confident the funds will be there next year when they go to draw them. A spokesperson said, “We’re working hard to onshore US manufacturing, providing thousands of American jobs here in Georgia.”
Rivian’s stock is up since reporting third-quarter earnings in November. However, RIVN shares are still down 12% over the past 12 months and 90% from their all-time high shortly after going public in November 2021.
Check back tomorrow after the market closes for a full breakdown of Rivian’s Q4 2024 earnings report.
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Ford’s electric pickup truck is back at the top. The F-150 Lightning is once again the best-selling electric pickup in the US after overtaking the Tesla Cybertruck in the first quarter.
Ford’s F-150 Lightning is the best-selling electric pickup
After launching in 2023, Tesla’s Cybertruck quickly outpaced the Lightning to become America’s top-selling EV pickup last year.
Since Tesla doesn’t break down regional sales, registration data gives us our best estimate. The latest registration data from S&P Global Mobility (via Automotive News) shows that the F-150 Lightning retook the title in March and the first quarter of 2025.
Ford’s electric pickup notched 2,598 registrations in March, topping the Tesla Cybertruck with 2,170. In the first quarter, the F-150 Lightning remained ahead with 7,913 registrations, compared to the Cybertruck’s 7,126.
Although the Cybertruck was the fifth top-selling EV in the US last year, it didn’t even crack the top ten in March. It placed ninth through the first three months of 2025, behind the Volkswagen ID.4.
While Tesla and Ford remained the leaders in the electric pickup market, several new models are gaining momentum. According to the most recent numbers from Cox Automotive, GM sold 2,383 Chevy Silverado EVs and 1,249 GMC Sierra EV models in Q1. Meanwhile, Rivian sold 1,727 R1Ts during the quarter.
Earlier today, Electrek reported that new models, including the Honda Prologue and Chevy Blazer EV, helped drive EV registrations up 20% in the US in March.
Although the Lightning reclaimed the crown from Tesla, Ford’s electric pickup isn’t exactly flying off the lot. Ford reported Lightning sales fell 16% to just 1,740 units in April. Through April 2025, Ford has sold 8,927 electric trucks, down 9% from the 9,833 it handed over last year.
Electrek’s Take
To be fair, Tesla is still ahead by a wide margin in the US. The S&P numbers show Tesla had over 51,000 registrations in March, up 1% after two months of lower YOY growth.
GM’s Chevy surpassed Ford to become the second-best-selling EV brand with nearly 8,500 registrations, an increase of 274% from last year. Ford dropped to third with 7,361 registrations.
Although it’s just one quarter, it’s starting to show how Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s political antics are likely impacting sales. After the Cybertruck’s initial hype, it appears many buyers are opting for traditional pickups, like the F-150 Lighting.
Meanwhile, Ram is delaying its first electric pickup, the 1500 REV, again. Ram is pushing production back until summer 2027, saying it’s “extending the quality validation period.” The plug-in hybrid (PHEV) Ramcharger will also be delayed until the first quarter of 2026.
After pulling the Ramcharger ahead of the fully electric version last year, Stellantis blamed weak demand for EV pickups in the US.
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Environment
Podcast: EV tax credit on chopping block, Tesla’s China problem, Slate gets interest, and more
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss how the GOP plans to kill the EV tax credit, Tesla’s China problem, Slate getting some interest, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET):
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Tesla’s Austin robotaxi fleet will be powered by ‘plenty of teleoperation’ as it “can’t screw up”, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley after meeting with Tesla.
You won’t hear anything negative about Tesla from Morgan Stanley very often.
Morgan Stanley’s Tesla analyst, Adam Jonas, has often been described as a ‘Tesla cheerleader’ on Wall Street for his extremely rosy view of the company. He generally believes whatever Elon Musk claims and adds a slight delay to the CEO’s timeline.
Recently, Jonas met with Tesla with some clients and released a new note that he hinted to be based on what he learned from Tesla during the meeting.
He claims that the planned “robotaxi” rollout in Austin next month is going to use “plenty of tele ops to ensure safety levels”:
Austin’s a ‘go’ but fleet size will be low. Think 10 to 20 cars. Public roads. Invite only. Plenty of tele ops to ensure safety levels (“we can’t screw up”). Still waiting for a date.
‘Tele ops’ stands for teleoperations, meaning that Tesla employees will be able to remotely access Tesla’s vehicles and operate them in some capacity.
Last year, Electrek reported that Tesla started hiring for this teleoperation team before the Robotaxi launch in Austin.
We have been extensively reporting on how much Tesla’s planned robotaxi fleet in Austin diverges from its previously disclosed plans of deploying “unsupervised Full Self-Driving” in its consumer vehicles.
Tesla plans to deploy “10-20” Model Y vehicles to offer ride-hailling services in a geo-fenced area of Austin, Texas using a version of its ‘Supervised Full Self-Driving’ (FSD), but instead of being supervised by a driver inside the vehicle, like the current product in consumer vehicles, Tesla is going to used employees to remotely supervise the vehicles.
The service is supposed to launch in June.
Electrek’s Take
I seriously don’t get why anyone could get excited about this. It is going to be a bit better than the current FSD, which has stalled for months as Tesla focuses on optimizing the system for Austin, but it will still basically be supervised – just remotely.
There’s a chance that it won’t even be remote as some believe Tesla will even fumble that timeline and use safety drivers, but I don’t know. I’m about 50/50 on that prediction right now.
Remote supervisors make more sense as Tesla can claim a little victory even though it would be less impressive than what Waymo has been doing for years.
The real goal that Tesla sold to consumers is that their privately owned vehicles would become self-driving without supervision and we are still so far from that. It’s clear that this project is mainly to distract them from that fact.
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