Rivian (RIVN) eyes first positive gross profit in Q4: Here’s what to expect from its earnings
Rivian (RIVN) will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday after the market closes. Although the EV maker aggressively cut costs last year, a supply shortage derailed some momentum. Rivian still stands by its goal of achieving its first positive gross profit in Q4. Here’s what to expect from the report.
Rivian expects a positive gross profit in Q4 2024 earnings
Rivian beat expectations with 14,183 vehicles delivered in the final three months of 2024, bringing the annual total to 51,579.
Although it was enough for Rivian to meet its full-year guidance of 50,500 and 52,000, it was only slightly more than the 50,122 the company delivered in 2023.
After a supply shortage began in the third quarter, Rivian cut its full-year production target to 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles in 2024, down from 57,000. Rivian topped its (revised) target with 49,476 units produced at its Normal, IL plant last year.
Rivian’s deliveries and production include the R1S, R1T, and electric delivery and commercial vans. Despite the slower-than-expected growth last year, the company still expects profits to improve.
Last month, the EV maker confirmed that “The previously discussed shortage of a shared component on the R1 and RCV platforms is no longer a constraint” on production.
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Full-Year 2024 | 2024 guidance | |
| Deliveries | 13,588 | 13,790 | 10,018 | 14,183 | 51,579 | 50,500 – 52,000 |
| Production | 13,980 | 9,612 | 13,157 | 12,727 | 49,476 | 47,000 – 49,000 |
Rivian also said it’s still on track to post its first positive gross profit in Q4. CFO Claire McDonough told analysts on the company’s third-quarter earnings call that Rivian expects “a modest gross profit” in the final three months of 2024.
However, McDonough clarified that regulatory credit sales, lower costs thanks to plant upgrades and improved supply contracts, and other revenue outside vehicle sales would mainly drive the achievement.
| Q3 ’22 | Q4 ’22 | Q1 ’23 | Q2 ’23 | Q3 ’23 | Q4 ’23 | Q1 ’24 | Q2 ’24 | Q3 ’24 | |
| Rivian loss per vehicle | $139,277 | $124,162 | $67,329 | $32,594 | $30,500 | $43,372 | $38,784 | $32,705 | $39,130 |
Rivian’s net loss fell to $1.1 billion in the third quarter, with a gross profit loss of $392 million. Although the company lost around $39,000 on each vehicle delivered in the third quarter, this is a drastic improvement from 2022, when Rivian lost over $139,000 per unit.
Including a $1 billion convertible note from Volkswagen, Rivian ended the third quarter with $6.7 billion in cash and equivalents.
According to Estimize, Wall St expects Rivian to post Q4 revenue of $1.4 billion, up from $1.3 billion in Q4 2023, and a loss of 0.68 per share (EPS) compared to a loss of $1.36 per share.
Prepping for R2
After launching its new joint venture with VW, Scaringe said the partnership was a “meaningful financial opportunity” worth up to $5.8 billion.
According to Rivian’s Chief Software Officer, Wassym Bensaid, other OEMs are now “knocking on our door” about similar supply deals for EV tech and software.
Rivian’s biggest growth driver is still yet to come. The company is preparing to launch its mid-size electric SUV, the R2, early next year. It will initially be built at Rivian’s Normal, IL facility, but production is expected to significantly expand with plans to open a second plant in Georgia.
The R2 will start at around $45,000, or nearly half the cost of the current R1T ($71,700) and R1S ($77,700). Rivian will also build a smaller, more affordable R3 crossover and high-performance R3X at the Georgia facility.
Rivian plans to build the plant in two stages, each adding 200,000 units of annual production capacity. Rivian says the R2 and R3 are “critical drivers in the company’s long-term growth and profitability.”
Although Rivian secured a $6.6 billion federal loan for the new EV plant just before Trump took office, the funding is now in jeopardy after the Administration announced plans to freeze federal loans.
Georgia Gov Brian Kemp told Channel 2 news this week that Rivian “secured that loan at the tail end of the Biden administration and, you know, I think there’s no secret that the Trump administration is taking a look at all those things.” He added, “So I don’t really know where that stands right now.”
Rivian is confident the funds will be there next year when they go to draw them. A spokesperson said, “We’re working hard to onshore US manufacturing, providing thousands of American jobs here in Georgia.”
Rivian’s stock is up since reporting third-quarter earnings in November. However, RIVN shares are still down 12% over the past 12 months and 90% from their all-time high shortly after going public in November 2021.
Check back tomorrow after the market closes for a full breakdown of Rivian’s Q4 2024 earnings report.
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Tesla is now pulling on all the demand levers in the US with new discounts and incentives as sales are crashing due to brand damage.
Over the last few days, Tesla has introduced a series of new discounts and incentives in the US.
Previously, Tesla had a program to offer a $1,000 discount for US military personnel, but the automaker has now extended it to “students, teachers, first-responders, military veterans, retirees, active-duty members, their spouses, and surviving spouses.”
The update incentive applies to Tesla’s entire lineup of new vehicles.
Tesla also introduced a new incentive for Lyft drivers. They are eligible to $1,000 in Tesla credits when taking delivery and $1,000 from Lyft if they complete 100 deliveries by July 13.
The automaker wrote on its website:
Eligible Lyft drivers who purchase a new Tesla vehicle can receive $1,0001 in Tesla Credits upon taking delivery and a $1,000 incentive from Lyft after completing 100 trips on or before July 13, 2025. Tesla Credits can be used toward Supercharging, a new Tesla vehicle, service appointments or select Tesla Shop or upgrade purchases. Offer available to active Lyft drivers in good standing.
Tesla also started reaching out to Cybertruck reservation holders to let them know that they only have a month before they can’t take advantage of lower FSD prices.
The automaker wrote in the email:
As an early reservation holder, you have access to a reserved Full Self-Driving (Supervised) price of $7,000. To keep this price, you’ll need to take delivery by June 15, 2025. After June 15, 2025, FSD (Supervised) will be available at the latest price, which is currently $8,000.
When Tesla started taking Cybertruck reservations in 2019, Tesla said that by reserving the truck, reservation holders were locking in the then $7,000 price for its ‘Full Self-Driving’ package.
It looks like Tesla is now putting a deadline to take advantage of this deal to boost orders of the Cybertruck, which has proven to be a commercial flop.
On top of all these incentives, Tesla is also subsidizing interest rates to offer 0% financing on Model 3, and 1.99% financing on Model Y.
All those incentives in place point to Tesla having significant demand issues in the US.
Tesla’s global sales came about 50,000 units below expectations, which the company blamed on the production changeover of Model Y, its most popular model by far.
However, production is now back up to normal in Q2, and Tesla is clearly having issues selling the updated Model Y.
The automaker has no backlog of orders for the new Model Y and vehicles are already piling up in inventory:
We reported last week that Tesla employees wrote an open letter calling for Elon Musk’s removal as CEO due to the damage he has caused to the brand.
In the letter, the employees confirmed Tesla’s demand issues, saying that thousands of new Model Ys are now sitting unsold on lots in the US.
Electrek’s Take
This is not a great sign for Tesla. These are end-of-quarter level incentives when we are just about halfway through the quarter.
And that’s just in the US, where Tesla’s sale performance is more opaque.
In Europe and China, where we know for a fact that Tesla is struggling with sales, the automaker is virtually offering 0% financing on its entire lineup.
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The electric box van experts at Harbinger announced a new, EREV version of their medium-duty van that pairs a big battery with a small, gas-powered ICE engine to offer fleets that are hesitant to electrify a massive 500 miles of autonomy on a single charge + tank.
The American truck brand is putting its latest $100 million raise to good use, developing a cost-competitive EREV chassis that marries a low-emissions 1.4L inline four-cylinder gas engine with a close coupled 800V generator sending power to a 140 or 175 kW battery for up to 500 miles of fully loaded range. More than enough, in other words, to meet the needs of just about any fleet you can think of.
That’s a good thing, too, because medium-duty trucks are put to work in just about any circumstance you can think of, as well – a fact that’s not lost on Harbinger.
“Medium-duty vehicles serve an incredibly diverse range of applications, just like the fleets and operators that rely on them, ” explains John Harris, Co-founder and CEO, Harbinger. “There are some fleets whose needs simply can’t be met with a purely electric vehicle—and we recognize that. Our hybrid is designed for use cases and routes that go beyond what an all-electric system typically supports. The series hybrid delivers the benefits of an electric drivetrain, along with the added confidence of a range extender when needed.”
In addition an up-front cost that should make it an attractive prospect for fleet buyers, the new Harbinger EREV pack performance that should made it attractive for its drivers, too. The new chassis’ electric powertrain delivers 440 hp and 1,140 lb-ft of tq for quick acceleration into traffic and smooth running, even under load. Charging performance is also quick, with the ability to get the big battery from 10-80% charge in just under an hour on a 150 kW port.
You’ve heard all this before
If that sounds familiar, that’s because it is. This medium-duty chassis was first shown last year, making its debut under a Thor Class A motorhome concept that we covered in September. That vehicle promised the same great EREV range and capability to a market that values independence and spontaneity more than most, and bringing those values to a medium-duty commercial market that’s lapping up “messy middle” propaganda from Shell NACFE is just smart business.
The new Harbinger chassis’ batteries are manufactured by Panasonic. No word on who is making the 1.4L ICE generator, but my money’s on the GM SGE four-cylinder last seen in the gas-powered Chevy Spark. You guys are smart, though – if you have a better guess who the supplier might be, let us know in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Harbinger.
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Environment
Trump wants coal to power AI data centers. The tech industry may need to make peace with that for now
President Donald Trump wants to revive the struggling coal industry in the U.S. by deploying plants to power the data centers that the Big Tech companies are building to train artificial intelligence.
Trump issued an executive order in April that directed his Cabinet to find areas of the U.S. where coal-powered infrastructure is available to support AI data centers and determine whether the infrastructure can be expanded to meet the growing electricity demand from the nation’s tech sector.
Trump has repeatedly promoted coal as power source for data centers. The president told the World Economic Forum in January that he would approve power plants for AI through emergency declaration, calling on the tech companies to use coal as a backup power source.
“They can fuel it with anything they want, and they may have coal as a backup — good, clean coal,” the president said.
Trump’s push to deploy coal runs afoul of the tech companies’ environmental goals. In the short-term, the industry’s power needs may inadvertently be extending the life of existing coal plants.
Coal produces more carbon dioxide emissions per kilowatt hour of power than any other energy source in the U.S. with the exception of oil, according to the Energy Information Administration. The tech industry has invested billions of dollars to expand renewable energy and is increasingly turning to nuclear power as a way to meet its growing electricity demand while trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions that fuel climate change.
For coal miners, Trump’s push is a potential lifeline. The industry has been in decline as coal plants are being retired in the U.S. About 16% of U.S. electricity generation came from burning coal in 2023, down from 51% in 2001, according to EIA data.
Peabody Energy CEO James Grech, who attended Trump’s executive order ceremony at the White House, said “coal plants can shoulder a heavier load of meeting U.S. generation demands, including multiple years of data center growth.” Peabody is one of the largest coal producers in the U.S.
Grech said coal plants should ramp up how much power they dispatch. The nation’s coal fleet is dispatching about 42% of its maximum capacity right now, compared to a historical average of 72%, the CEO told analysts on the company’s May 6 earnings call.
“We believe that all coal-powered generators need to defer U.S. coal plant retirements as the situation on the ground has clearly changed,” Grech said. “We believe generators should un-retire coal plants that have recently been mothballed.”
Tech sector reaction
There is a growing acknowledgment within the tech industry that fossil fuel generation will be needed to help meet the electricity demand from AI. But the focus is on natural gas, which emits less half the CO2 of coal per kilowatt hour of power, according the the EIA.
“To have the energy we need for the grid, it’s going to take an all of the above approach for a period of time,” Kevin Miller, Amazon’s vice president of global data centers, said during a panel discussion at conference of tech and oil and gas executives in Oklahoma City last month.
“We’re not surprised by the fact that we’re going to need to add some thermal generation to meet the needs in the short term,” Miller said.
Thermal generation is a code word for gas, said Nat Sahlstrom, chief energy officer at Tract, a Denver-based company that secures land, infrastructure and power resources for data centers. Sahlstrom previously led Amazon’s energy, water and sustainability teams.
Executives at Amazon, Nvidia and Anthropic would not commit to using coal, mostly dodging the question when asked during the panel at the Oklahoma City conference.
“It’s never a simple answer,” Amazon’s Miller said. “It is a combination of where’s the energy available, what are other alternatives.”
Nvidia is able to be agnostic about what type of power is used because of the position the chipmaker occupies on the AI value chain, said Josh Parker, the company’s senior director of corporate sustainability. “Thankfully, we leave most of those decisions up to our customers.”
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said there are a broader set of options available than just coal. “We would certainly consider it but I don’t know if I’d say it’s at the top of our list.”
Sahlstrom said Trump’s executive order seems like a “dog whistle” to coal mining constituents. There is a big difference between looking at existing infrastructure and “actually building new power plants that are cost competitive and are going to be existing 30 to 40 years from now,” the Tract executive said.
Coal is being displaced by renewables, natural gas and existing nuclear as coal plants face increasingly difficult economics, Sahlstrom said. “Coal has kind of found itself without a job,” he said.
“I do not see the hyperscale community going out and signing long term commitments for new coal plants,” the former Amazon executive said. (The tech companies ramping up AI are frequently referred to as “hyperscalers.”)
“I would be shocked if I saw something like that happen,” Sahlstrom said.
Coal retirements strain grid
But coal plant retirements are creating a real challenge for the grid as electricity demand is increasing due to data centers, re-industrialization and the broader electrification of the economy.
The largest grid in the nation, the PJM Interconnection, has forecast electricity demand could surge 40% by 2039. PJM warned in 2023 that 40 gigawatts of existing power generation, mostly coal, is at risk of retirement by 2030, which represents about 21% of PJM’s installed capacity.
Data centers will temporarily prolong coal demand as utilities scramble to maintain grid reliability, delaying their decarbonization goals, according to a Moody’s report from last October. Utilities have already postponed the retirement of coal plants totaling about 39 gigawatts of power, according to data from the National Mining Association.
“If we want to grow America’s electricity production meaningfully over the next five or ten years, we [have] got to stop closing coal plants,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC’s “Money Movers” last month.
But natural gas and renewables are the future, Sahlstrom said. Some 60% of the power sector’s emissions reductions over the past 20 years are due to gas displacing coal, with the remainder coming from renewables, Sahlstrom said.
“That’s a pretty powerful combination, and it’s hard for me to see people going backwards by putting more coal into the mix, particularly if you’re a hyperscale customer who has net-zero carbon goals,” he said.
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