Exit poll may appear decisive – but path to coalition is not clear yet
Initial exit polls appear to confirm what we have known for weeks: that the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) have got the most votes in the federal election, with Friedrich Merz most likely to be the next chancellor.
While this result isn’t a surprise, it doesn’t mean the path to power will be easy.
First off, the CDU-CSU don’t have a majority so they need to try to build a coalition.
The first exit polls displayed on a screen at the SPD’s headquarters in Germany. Pic: Reuters
Their most obvious choices as partners are the third-place Social Democrats. A two-party coalition is preferred as it can avoid excess bickering but the SPD and CDU disagree on several key points including sending long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Follow live: Germany’s election results
Forming a government can take months but Mr Merz is keen to speed up the process – aware of the pressing issues both at home and abroad.
One of those is the rise of the far right, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party celebrating historic results.
The initial results suggest that for the first time since the Second World War, a far-right party has got the second highest number of votes.
That could also cause serious issues for the next government.
As a result of Germany‘s Nazi history, mainstream parties have a long-running pact known as the “firewall” which says they will not work with the far right.
Even before the polls had closed, AfD leader Alice Weidel echoed Donald Trump and released a video statement urging people to “observe” the ballots being counted and to “protect democracy”.
The AfD’s Alice Weidel celebrating after the exit poll result. Pic: AP
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How will Germany election impact Europe?
Many of the AfD’s supporters have said not allowing the second most popular party into government is undemocratic, threatening to take to the streets.
The US vice president JD Vance also sparked outrage when he spoke out against the firewall at the recent Munich Security Conference and suggested the new Trump administration would be ready to work with the AfD.
Conversely, in the run-up to the election, hundreds of thousands of Germans have protested to demand that the firewall remains.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party after the exit poll results. Pic: Reuters
In January, Mr Merz caused controversy when a draft motion got through parliament with AfD support, he’s since vowed he will not go into government with them.
If he sticks to that pledge then he is likely to see right-wing demonstrations as well becoming a target of prominent AfD backers including Elon Musk.
Read more on Germany election:
Who is Friedrich Merz – Germany’s likely next leader?
German elections are usually dull affairs – this time is different
The AfD’s result also cannot be ignored. While some of the vote may be a protest, the party has expanded its traditional base in the east to pick up support in the west.
Dissatisfaction over migration, the economy, rocketing prices and the war in Ukraine have all helped to grow its ranks as people feel ignored by mainstream parties.
Mr Merz has already tried to win back some of its voters by proposing tough migration reforms including permanent checks on the borders and potentially turning away some asylum seekers when they try to enter.
If he fails to deliver on these promises then the AfD will continue to make gains.
Other urgent to dos for the next government include sorting out Germany’s economy following two years of recession and restoring its position at the centre of the EU.
Ministers must also face up to the fact their traditional allies are no longer guaranteed.
The Trump administration appears to be ripping up the rule book when it comes to being a protector of Europe and its ongoing support for Ukraine.
If America steps back, as Europe’s largest power and Ukraine’s largest European backer, Germany will have to step up.
Again, that’s going to be a big challenge as its military needs to be transformed.
The final results are not even confirmed yet but whatever form it takes, the next government knows it has four years to fix Germany, if it fails then populists are highly likely to ride to power in 2029.
They rose to their feet in ecstatic surprise, shouting “heydar, heydar” – a Shia victory chant.
This was the first public appearance of their supreme leader since Israel began attacking their country.
He emerged during evening prayers in his private compound. He said nothing but looked stern and resolute as he waved to the crowd.
He has spent the last weeks sequestered in a bunker, it is assumed, for his safety following numerous death threats from Israel and the US.
His re-emergence suggests a return to normality and a sense of defiance that we have witnessed here on the streets of Tehran too.
Earlier, we had filmed as men in black marched through the streets of the capital to the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, whipping their backs with metal flails.
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Defiance on streets of Tehran
This weekend they mark the Shia festival of Ashura as they have for 14 centuries. But this year has poignant significance for Iranians far more than most.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday. We filmed men and women weeping as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The armies of the Caliph Yazid killed the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh-century Battle of Karbala.
Shiite Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates, of resistance against oppression and injustice.
But more so than ever in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here among people and officials.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
Death to Israel chants resounded outside the mosque in skies which were filled for 12 days with the sounds of Israeli jets. There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
A woman was dismissive about the US president. “I don’t think about Trump, nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby draw a line between Imam Hussein’s story and current events. The seventh-century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
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Officially Iran is projecting defiance but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times,” she said.
“We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
But there is also a hint of conciliation: Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News that back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. That proved unfounded, the government is in control here.
For many Iranians, it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.
It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.
But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.
Iranians gather ahead of Ashura
We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.
Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.
Men and women weeped as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.
There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
‘I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him,’ one woman tells Sky News
A woman was dismissive about the US president.
“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani said it would be a mistake for Israel to attack again
But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.
For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
World
Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says
Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.
In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.
The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.
GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamas was behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.
“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”
Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.
Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”
The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.
The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.
Read more:
Hamas gives ‘positive’ response to ceasefire proposal
Outcry as Israeli strike hits school
94 killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza, health staff say
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It comes after Sky News analysis showed GHF aid distributions are associated with a significant increase in deaths in Gaza.
According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.
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Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’
GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.
Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.
It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.
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