Exit poll may appear decisive – but path to coalition is not clear yet

Published

3 months ago

February 23, 2025

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Initial exit polls appear to confirm what we have known for weeks: that the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) have got the most votes in the federal election, with Friedrich Merz most likely to be the next chancellor.

While this result isn’t a surprise, it doesn’t mean the path to power will be easy.

First off, the CDU-CSU don’t have a majority so they need to try to build a coalition.

Their most obvious choices as partners are the third-place Social Democrats. A two-party coalition is preferred as it can avoid excess bickering but the SPD and CDU disagree on several key points including sending long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Follow live: Germany’s election results

Forming a government can take months but Mr Merz is keen to speed up the process – aware of the pressing issues both at home and abroad.

One of those is the rise of the far right, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party celebrating historic results.

The initial results suggest that for the first time since the Second World War, a far-right party has got the second highest number of votes.

That could also cause serious issues for the next government.

As a result of Germany‘s Nazi history, mainstream parties have a long-running pact known as the “firewall” which says they will not work with the far right.

Even before the polls had closed, AfD leader Alice Weidel echoed Donald Trump and released a video statement urging people to “observe” the ballots being counted and to “protect democracy”.

Many of the AfD’s supporters have said not allowing the second most popular party into government is undemocratic, threatening to take to the streets.

The US vice president JD Vance also sparked outrage when he spoke out against the firewall at the recent Munich Security Conference and suggested the new Trump administration would be ready to work with the AfD.

Conversely, in the run-up to the election, hundreds of thousands of Germans have protested to demand that the firewall remains.

In January, Mr Merz caused controversy when a draft motion got through parliament with AfD support, he’s since vowed he will not go into government with them.

If he sticks to that pledge then he is likely to see right-wing demonstrations as well becoming a target of prominent AfD backers including Elon Musk.

The AfD’s result also cannot be ignored. While some of the vote may be a protest, the party has expanded its traditional base in the east to pick up support in the west.

Dissatisfaction over migration, the economy, rocketing prices and the war in Ukraine have all helped to grow its ranks as people feel ignored by mainstream parties.

Mr Merz has already tried to win back some of its voters by proposing tough migration reforms including permanent checks on the borders and potentially turning away some asylum seekers when they try to enter.

If he fails to deliver on these promises then the AfD will continue to make gains.

Other urgent to dos for the next government include sorting out Germany’s economy following two years of recession and restoring its position at the centre of the EU.

Ministers must also face up to the fact their traditional allies are no longer guaranteed.

The Trump administration appears to be ripping up the rule book when it comes to being a protector of Europe and its ongoing support for Ukraine.

If America steps back, as Europe’s largest power and Ukraine’s largest European backer, Germany will have to step up.

Again, that’s going to be a big challenge as its military needs to be transformed.

The final results are not even confirmed yet but whatever form it takes, the next government knows it has four years to fix Germany, if it fails then populists are highly likely to ride to power in 2029.

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Nicusor Dan beats hard-right favourite George Simion in surprise win in Romanian election

Published

20 mins ago

May 18, 2025

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Nicusor Dan beats hard-right favourite George Simion in surprise win in Romanian election

Pro-Western candidate Nicusor Dan has unexpectedly beaten hard-right populist George Simion in the Romanian presidential election.

Mr Simion, 38, and his rival – a centrist who’s mayor of Bucharest – faced off in the second round of the contest.

According to the official tally, Mr Dan was leading by nearly nine percentage points with more than 98% of the votes counted.

After exit polls suggested he wasn’t going to win, Trump-supporting Mr Simion rejected the result and said estimates put him 400,000 votes ahead.

Speaking after voting ended, Mr Simion said his election was “clear” as he posted on Facebook: “I won!!! I am the new President of Romania and I am giving back the power to the Romanians!”

Romania’s last election was annulled after its highest court ruled the leading candidate, nationalist Calin Georgescu, should be disqualified due to claims of electoral interference by Russia.

The result is surprising because in the first round, 38-year-old Mr Simion, founder of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), took 40.96% of the vote – almost 20 points ahead.

An opinion poll on Friday had it much closer, but still suggested the two men were virtually tied.

Mr Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, is running as an independent and has pledged to clamp down on corruption.

He is also staunchly pro-EU and NATO, and has said Romania’s support for Ukraine is vital for its own security.

When voting closed at 9pm local time, 11.6 million people – about 64% of eligible voters – had cast ballots. About 1.64 million Romanians living abroad also took part.

The election is being closely watched across Europe amid a rise of support for President Donald Trump.

After polls closed, Mr Dan said “elections are not about politicians” but about communities and that in the latest vote “a community of Romanians has won, a community that wants a profound change in Romania”.

“When Romania goes through difficult times, let us remember the strength of this Romanian society,” he said.

“There is also a community that lost today’s elections. A community that is rightly outraged by the way politics has been conducted in Romania up to now.”

World

Israel to allow ‘basic quantity of food’ into Gaza to avoid ‘starvation crisis’

Published

1 hour ago

May 18, 2025

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Israel to allow 'basic quantity of food' into Gaza to avoid 'starvation crisis'

Israel has said it will allow a “basic quantity of food” into the besieged enclave of Gaza to avoid a “starvation crisis” following a near three-month blockade.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the decision was “based on the operational need to enable the expansion of the military operation to defeat Hamas”.

Gaza, where local authorities say more than 53,000 people have died in Israel’s 19-month campaign, has been under a complete blockade on humanitarian aid since 2 March.

It comes as global food security experts warn of famine across the territory and after a UN-backed report issued last Monday which warned one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation.

The statement from the prime minister’s office said it would “allow a basic quantity of food to be brought in for the population in order to make certain that no starvation crisis develops in the Gaza Strip”.

“Such a crisis would endanger the continuation of Operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ to defeat Hamas,” it added.

“Israel will act to deny Hamas’s ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian assistance in order to ensure that the assistance does not reach the Hamas terrorists.”

It comes after a British surgeon working in Gaza said in a video to Sky News the enclave is now “a slaughterhouse” amid Israeli bombardment.

Israel has just ramped up its offensive in Gaza, with Palestinian health officials reporting at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.

Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed troops had begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.

The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.

In a statement on Sunday, IDF said its air force struck “over 670 Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip to disrupt enemy preparations and support ground operations” over the past week.

Israel has launched an escalation to increase pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.

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British surgeon working in Gaza says it is now ‘a slaughterhouse’ amid Israeli bombardment

Published

8 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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British surgeon working in Gaza says it is now 'a slaughterhouse' amid Israeli bombardment

A British surgeon working in southern Gaza has compared the region to a “slaughterhouse” because of the daily bombardment from Israeli forces.

Dr Tom Potokar, who is based at the European Hospital near Khan Younis in southern Gaza, offered his assessment of Israel’s military offensive after Palestinian health officials reported at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.

Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have confirmed their troops have begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.

In a video, Dr Potokar said it was “another day of devastation here in Gaza”, adding: “The stories coming from the north… absolutely horrific… particularly around the Indonesian Hospital.”

“I mean, it’s difficult to describe in words what’s happening here… [with the] constant sound of bombardment jets overhead.

“If Cambodia was the killing fields, then Gaza now is the slaughterhouse.”

His reference to Cambodia’s killing fields refers to when more than a million people were murdered in mass executions and buried by the extreme communist guerrilla group, the Khmer Rouge, under Pol Pot, between 1975 and 1979.

The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.

Dr Potokar described the impact on those on the ground, saying: “We’ve been operating all morning so far and [treating] awful explosive injuries… [including] one young woman with leg fracture and shoulder fracture and a large wound on her buttock, who came in yesterday and is not yet aware that everyone in our family was killed in the onslaught.”

Israel has launched an escalation of its war in Gaza to ramp up pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.

On Sunday, it announced and launched “extensive” new ground operations in Gaza.

It came after airstrikes killed more than 100 people, including dozens of children, overnight and into Sunday, hospitals and medics said, and forced northern Gaza’s main hospital to close.

A spokesperson for the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said: “Complete families were wiped off the civil registration record by Israeli bombardment”.

The ministry also said the bombardment had forced the closure of the Indonesian Hospital, the main hospital serving people in northern Gaza.

Nasser hospital, in the southern city of Khan Younis, said more than 48 people – mostly women and children – were killed in the area which includes tents sheltering displaced people.

In Deir al Balah, in central Gaza, at least 12 people were killed in three separate strikes, according to Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital and the Nuseirat camp’s Awda Hospital.

Meanwhile, the Gaza health ministry and the Palestinian Civil Defence – which operates under the Hamas-run government – reported that 19 people were killed in several strikes in Jabalia in northern Gaza.

The Israeli military had no immediate comment on the strikes.

Read more from Sky News:
How Israel has escalated Gaza bombing campaign

Ceasefire talks are taking place in Qatar this weekend – with Israel saying they involve discussions on ending the war as well as a truce and hostage deal.

A statement from the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said any lasting truce must include the demilitarisation of Gaza as well as the exile of Hamas militants.

But a senior Israeli official added there had been little progress so far during talks in Qatar’s capital Doha.

Sky News Arabia reported Hamas had proposed freeing about half its Israeli hostages in exchange for a two-month ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

A Palestinian official close to the discussions said: “Hamas is flexible about the number of hostages it can free, but the problem has always been over Israel’s commitment to end the war.”