A gift any Russian leader could only dream of is in Putin’s grasp – a NATO without US military support
In a strictly military sense, the war in Ukraine is not going so badly for Kyiv.
Russian territorial gains on the ground have slowed to a crawl since last November for which they are losing, on average, some 1,500 men every day.
They have almost – but still not quite – taken Toretsk. And after months of being on the verge of overwhelming the other key strategic towns of Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, Russian forces still remain outside them.
Russia’s massive air bombing campaign against the Ukrainian power grid, its critical infrastructure and civilian targets has not brought Kyiv to its knees, though this has been far and away the toughest winter of Russia’s air offensive against Ukraine.
And in the Black Sea, Ukraine has chased the Russian navy away from its western waters and thus kept its vital shipping routes open from the Odesa ports to the Mediterranean and the Danube Basin. This is a strategic battle Ukraine has unquestionably won.
But with so much material help from Iran, North Korea and China, Russia is obviously prepared to carry on the war, even though on current trends, its own economy will be pretty shaky by the end of this year.
If Western powers, particularly the United States, continued with their previous levels of support, then Ukraine could carry on as well, if it were minded to keep fighting, even with its more limited pool of manpower.
But the battlefield doesn’t matter much any more. The political ground has dramatically shifted under Kyiv and its principal backers in Europe.
The US seems to have suddenly reversed its position under President Trump, and it is driving Ukraine into a very rapid, so-called ‘peace deal’. Serious negotiations have not yet begun, but top US decision-makers seem to want to give Moscow more than it could ever have dreamed of when its “special military operation” in Ukraine went so spectacularly wrong three years ago.
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Three years of war in Ukraine
Moscow now feels it has a very good chance of keeping all its military gains, getting even parts of the Ukrainian regions it hasn’t yet conquered, getting some relief from sanctions, US investment in its economy and re-entry into the G7, which would go back to being a G8.
It will also be making demands on what Kyiv will and will not be allowed to do and what NATO should do to “reassure” Moscow that it won’t have to invade anyone else in an act of self-defence.
Most of all, the US is holding out the tantalizing prospect to Russia that NATO’s “transatlantic dimension” may be militarily finished under the Trump administration. That implies that if the Europeans end up fighting Russia in the future, the US will stand aside.
That prospect is the greatest free gift Washington could ever give Moscow.
Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, even Gorbachev and Yeltsin, fervently wished for it but never even got close. Putin may feel it is now within his grasp, whatever happens next in Ukraine.
Banned from Eurovision after its invasion of Ukraine, Russia will hold a rival international song contest on Saturday, with an emphasis on “traditional values”.
Instead of camp, think conservative – patriotic pop with a PG-rating.
“Intervision” was launched under the order of Vladimir Putin, with the hope it would serve as an expression of Moscow’s international pulling power.
Intervision decorations in Red Square, Moscow, ahead of the contest
There are contestants from 23 countries, which are a mixture of Russia’s allies old and new, including Belarus, Cuba and Tajikistan as well as China, India and Saudi Arabia.
The odd one out is the United States, who’ll be represented by an artist called “Vassy”. She’s not part of an official delegation, but an American voice is still a coup for the Kremlin, which will seek to use this contest as proof of the West’s failure to isolate Russia on the global stage.
‘War whitewash’
Intervision is not entirely new. It was originally launched in the 1960s as an instrument of Soviet soft power, before largely fading from view in the 1980s.
According to Moscow, its revival has nothing to do with politics. But Ukraine has condemned it as propaganda, and an attempt to whitewash Russia’s war.
It was a point I put to some contestants after their final press conferences, but it didn’t go down well.
“We don’t think like that, we are here to spread peace,” India’s Rauhan Malik told me, when I asked if his participation was a show of support for Russia’s invasion.
Malik, one of the contestants
“Are you not turning a blind eye to Russia’s aggression?” I countered.
“I have no idea about it,” he said. “I have no idea about the current situation that’s happening. I don’t want to speak about that as well.”
Eurovision legends Abba would almost certainly not make the Russian contest guest list. Pic: AP
Really? He had no idea? But before I could go on, I felt a forceful hand on my shoulder and a minder stepped in.
The intervention was even quicker when it came to speaking to Brazil’s act. As soon as I mentioned the word Ukraine, I was drowned out by shouts of “no, no, no, no” and the duo were ushered away.
Brazilian contestants, duo Luciano Calazans and Thais Nader
Where’s the glitter?
Intervision is not just a reaction to Russia’s recent exclusion from Eurosivion, however, it’s also a reaction to the contest’s values and what it’s come to represent.
Its celebration of sexual diversity and LGBTQ+ rights are seen as a symbol of what the Kremlin calls the West’s moral decline. In contrast, Intervision organisers say their contest will promote “traditional, family values.”
Judging by the costumes on show ahead of last week’s draw, that translates to less glitter, more embroidery, with a thematic emphasis on national heritage.
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So what do Russians think of Intervision’s resurrection? Can it replace Eurovision?
“We don’t miss Eurovision,” Galina and Tatiana say, underneath a collection of purple and pink ‘Intervision’ flags near Red Square.
“It was so horrible, especially lately. We didn’t like watching it at all.”
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Why are countries boycotting Eurovision?
Polina agrees, believing Russia’s version will be “more interesting”.
“Many countries that participated in Eurovision want to boycott it, so it’s interesting to see a more peaceful event now,” she says.
Igor is more circumspect. “I’d like to believe that this isn’t a political event,” he says, “but rather an event that unites nations and people.”
Intervision will succeed in uniting some nations. But at the same time, it may only deepen divisions with others – further evidence that Russia and the West are singing very different tunes.
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