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Sir Keir Starmer will this week go to Washington to try to help broker a just peace deal for Ukraine with a capricious president who in just a week has unwound a consensus that was born from the ashes of the Second World War and had endured for 70 years.

How the Ukraine-Russia deal is struck will affect not just Ukraine’s security, but the whole of Europe.

Politics latest: ‘Alarm bells ringing for Labour’

It is, in the words of the prime minister, a generational moment – and he is the man who has to try to meet that moment in a week that could prove defining for his premiership.

His task is to try to persuade the US to offer security guarantees for Ukraine and contain rather than embolden an aggressive Russia.

He also has to use his trip to try to strengthen the trade relationship with the US and persuade Donald Trump to pause any potential tariffs for the UK.

His team have been war gaming all the scenarios, and the prime minister will go with a clear message on what the UK is asking of the US and what it can offer.

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Starmer in US: What are his main challenges?

How can PM woo Trump over Ukraine?

Sir Keir has already offered to put UK troops on the ground as part of any peacekeeping force and promised to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.

Trump is demanding markedly more from NATO allies, suggesting they should hit 5%, as expectations rise over the UK’s commitments on defence (Number 10 are refusing to comment, for now).

The prime minister will also, in a nod to Trump’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific, reiterate the UK’s commitment to AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between the US, UK, and Australia.

What Sir Keir and Europe need from Trump is some sort of US security backstop for Ukraine in any deal with Russia.

Up to now, Trump has parroted Vladimir Putin’s playbook, accusing Ukraine of starting the war (untrue) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy being a dictator (also untrue), while also ruling out Kyiv joining NATO and promising to normalise relations with Russia.

From the phone call with Putin, to cutting Europe and Ukraine out negotiations in Saudi Arabia last week, Trump has played the role of a strongman carving up the world according to spheres of influence.

Part of Sir Keir’s job on Thursday will be to persuade Trump that in this vein of “great power transactional diplomacy”, Putin is not his equal and playing into his hands will not secure a stable peace.

Read more:
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Trump’s falsehoods should be called out

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‘I’m gonna get the war settled’

From MAGA to MEGA

On trade, new ambassador Lord Mandelson is talking up a “MEGA” deal (Make our Economies Great Again) by working up a proposal for increasing the £300bn worth of trade between the UK and US.

The hope is for the prime minister to come away from the White House with a commitment to begin a process of deepening trade and economic ties between London and Washington, which leads to a series of individual trade arrangements rather than a big bang deal that could take years to negotiate.

But if those are the aims, there is plenty of jeopardy for a UK government and the Number 10 team trying to plan a trip against the backdrop of a president they simply can’t predict.

Lord Mandelson. Pic: PA
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Lord Mandelson has a big job on his hand as the PM’s man in Washington. Pic: PA

Could a rift open between old allies?

When I asked one insider whether they thought Trump’s attacks on Zelenskyy were a ploy to bring Putin to the table, or the president’s real views, they said: “The honest answer is we don’t know and that is part of where we are right now.

“We need to get over there and get a better sense of the president’s red lines.”

Never miss an episode of Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts.

For now, the Number 10 team are focused less on what Trump says and more on what he does, with the understanding that if his starting position really is his endgame, there will be a rift between two old allies.

Sir Keir’s problems were already piling up before Trump’s entry into the White House, and he goes to Washington knowing further instability in Europe – and potential trade barriers with the UK’s second-biggest trading partner – only makes his already difficult task of delivering a “decade of national renewal” harder still.

The stakes couldn’t be higher, or more unpredictable.

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Luton teenager who murdered family was planning school shooting

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Luton teenager who murdered family was planning school shooting

A teenager who admitted killing his mother and two younger siblings was plotting a school shooting, it can now be reported.

Nicholas Prosper, 19, appeared at Luton Crown Court over the deaths of Juliana Falcon, 48, Giselle Prosper, 13, and Kyle Prosper, 16.

Their bodies were found at a flat in Leabank, off Wauluds Bank Drive, Luton, in September.

He was also planning a shooting at St Joseph’s Catholic Primary School in Luton, where he and his siblings had all been pupils.

Headteacher Maureen Murphy said staff were “very shocked” to learn of the plot, but that there is no threat to the school.

Prosper’s harrowing plan, said to have left investigators “in shock and disbelief”, was foiled by police who spotted him in the street immediately after the murders.

He was stopped in nearby Bramingham Road, and a loaded shotgun was found hidden in bushes nearby, along with more than 30 cartridges.

As he appeared in court on Monday, Prosper spoke to confirm his identity and to plead guilty to three charges of murder.

Detective Chief Inspector Sam Khanna, from the Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire Major Crime Unit, said: “In all my years working on murder investigations, I have never known a case quite like this.

“Not only were three innocent lives taken in such brutal circumstances, but we then learnt of Prosper’s plans to carry out a shooting at a school, something which left our whole investigation team in shock and disbelief.

“We cannot even begin to comprehend why someone would plan to kill innocent children and are so grateful to those arresting officers who helped prevent this from taking place.”

Giselle Prosper (left), Juliana Prosper (centre), Kyle Prosper (right) found dead in a flat in Luton, Leabank, on Friday 13 September 2024. Pic: family pics issued via Bedfordshire police
Image:
Giselle Prosper (left), Juliana Falcon (centre), Kyle Prosper (right). Pic: Family pictures via Bedfordshire Police

Leader of Luton Council, Hazel Simmons MBE, branded the murders as “senseless” and said their thoughts were with the victims, their family and friends.

The councillor sought to reassure parents by saying “our schools have robust systems in place to keep children safe and security is constantly reviewed and monitored”.

After recently asking schools to review their security, Ms Simmons said schools will be asked to further review their measures in light of what emerged from court on Monday.

“On behalf of the town I would like to thank and praise the excellent work of Bedfordshire Police for apprehending the perpetrator before he attempted to cause more harm.

“However, we know this case will be unsettling for parents which is why the council is working with schools to put support in place in our schools to anyone who needs it.”

Prosper also admitted a number of other offences, including purchasing a shotgun without a certificate, possession of a shotgun with intent to endanger life and possession of a kitchen knife in a public place.

He will be sentenced on 5 March and has been remanded in custody.

‘A cold-blooded attack’

Chris Derrick, a deputy chief crown prosecutor at the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), said the victims’ lives “were stolen in a cold-blooded attack”.

Mr Derrick said in a statement “the full extent of Prosper’s actions will be laid bare when he is sentenced, and he can expect to face a very long time behind bars”.

He added: “We hope today’s conviction offers some solace to those who loved and cared for them, as they mourn their loss.”

A friend of Ms Falcon previously described her as someone who “lived for her children” and said she was “a positive person who will be so terribly missed”.

A previous statement on X from the headteacher at Lea Manor High School said they were “deeply shocked” by the death of Giselle.

“Giselle was a beautiful soul and a model pupil, she excelled in all her subjects and will be sorely missed, particularly by her friends in Year 9.”

Read more from Sky News:
Girl, 3, who died in crash involving van and tram named
Children ‘screaming in sheer terror’ after van filled with fireworks set alight

Kyle’s school described the incident as “devastating” and offered “heartfelt condolences” to his family.

A previous statement issued by Cardinal Newman Catholic School said: “This is devastating news to all those who knew and loved Kyle and it will take some time to come to terms with the profound sense of loss.

“We know this will be a difficult time for students and staff and we will do all we can to support them with love and compassion.

“We extend our heartfelt condolences to Kyle’s family on their immeasurable loss, to his friends and to all those in neighbouring schools who are coming to terms with their own loss.”

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Reform in contention in potential nightmare by-election for Labour

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Reform in contention in potential nightmare by-election for Labour

The jailing of Mike Amesbury for 10 weeks for assault means Sir Keir Starmer potentially faces his first by-election test since becoming prime minister.

Officially, the 55-year-old former Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby now faces a recall petition, but realistically he’s under enormous pressure to resign without delay.

Politics latest: ‘Alarm bells ringing’ for Labour

Amesbury was immediately disowned by the Labour Party, which condemned his actions in the assault as “completely unacceptable” and said it was time for a new MP.

“Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better, and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserved in the future with a new MP,” said a party spokesperson.

However, if Amesbury appeals against his sentence, as it’s being suggested he may, that would delay a by-election as a writ can’t be moved unless appeals are exhausted, or he stands down voluntarily.

Amesbury held the Cheshire seat with a seemingly healthy 14,696 majority at the July 2024 general election. But in a potential nightmare for Sir Keir, it was Reform UK – not the Conservatives – in second place.

 Nigel Farage addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.
Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage’s Reform UK leads the opinion polls. Pic: Reuters

A challenge for Labour – but Tories in disarray

The current state of opinion polls, with Nigel Farage’s party edging ahead of Labour, suggests Reform will be in contention in a by-election and could pull off a sensational victory.

And so predictably it was Reform’s chairman Zia Yusuf who led calls from opponents for Amesbury to resign, followed by a handful of Tory backbenchers – but not by Kemi Badenoch yet.

“The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place,” said Mr Yusuf. “We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately.”

The risk of humiliation by Mr Farage may deter Labour big hitter Jonathan Ashworth – one of five Labour MPs defeated in July last year – from gambling on a quick return to Westminster in this seat.

The Conservatives appear to be in disarray over a potential by-election. Sky News can reveal that party HQ last week invited applications to be Tory candidate, with a deadline fast approaching.

“We are writing to invite applications for Runcorn and Helsby,” said a letter from the party’s candidates team. “We are particularly keen to see applications from people with links to the constituency.

“If you are eligible to stand and interested in applying, please apply through the Microsoft Form here and apply by no later than Tuesday 25th February at 12pm.”

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Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury walks outside Chester Magistrates Court.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury. Pic: Reuters

When could a by-election happen?

A recall petition happens if an MP is jailed or receives a suspended sentence of a year or less. It lasts six weeks and if 10% of electors sign it, there’s a by-election – though the recalled MP can stand.

The last MP to be jailed was Tory Imran Ahmad Khan, former MP for Wakefield, who was sentenced to 18 months after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-yar-old boy. Labour won that by-election.

Although Sir Keir and the Labour high command have acknowledged since Amesbury pleaded guilty that a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was almost inevitable, the party faces a dilemma over the timing of a poll.

Labour’s statement looking forward to a new MP suggests the party favours a speedy by-election, without the delay of a recall petition, rather than waiting until the local elections on 1 May or even later.

But there are dangers in a quick poll, as Sir Keir will recall. He was advised to rush the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, with disastrous results, and he has admitted he considered quitting after that humiliating defeat.

Sir Keir Starmer leaves after a meeting in Paris with European leaders on Ukraine on 17 February. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer had a good record in by-elections when Labour were in opposition. Pic: Reuters

The numbers in Runcorn and Helsby last July were Labour on 22,358 votes (52.94%), Reform 7,662, (18.14%), Conservatives 6,756, (16%), Greens 2,715, (6.43%) and Liberal Democrats 2,149, (5.09%).

Runcorn is on the southern bank of the River Mersey and has expanded as a new town since 1964, and dominates the constituency with a population of 61,000. There are two smaller towns, Frodsham and Helsby.

Amesbury became MP for the processor seat of Weaver Vale in 2017. He was a shadow minister for work and pensions under Jeremy Corbyn, and for housing, communities and local government under Sir Keir until 2022.

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Luton teenager who murdered family was planning school shooting

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Luton teenager who murdered family was planning school shooting

A teenager who admitted killing his mother and two younger siblings was plotting a school shooting, it can now be reported.

Nicholas Prosper, 19, appeared at Luton Crown Court over the deaths of Juliana Falcon, 48, Giselle Prosper, 13, and Kyle Prosper, 16.

Their bodies were found at a flat in Leabank, off Wauluds Bank Drive, Luton, in September.

As he appeared in court on Monday, Prosper spoke to confirm his identity and to plead guilty to three charges of murder.

Assistant Chief Constable John Murphy, from Bedfordshire Police, said: “We understand the deep shock this case will have on people within Luton and across the country.

“Juliana, Kyle and Giselle were brutally murdered in their home by someone intent on causing the maximum harm and distress on not only his family, but to the wider community.

“We are extremely grateful to our officers who stopped him and prevented him from going through with his plans to target a school.

“We are working closely alongside Luton Borough Council to engage with schools in Luton to provide support, assistance and guidance to both schools and parents.”

Giselle Prosper (left), Juliana Prosper (centre), Kyle Prosper (right) found dead in a flat in Luton, Leabank, on Friday 13 September 2024. Pic: family pics issued via Bedfordshire police
Image:
Giselle Prosper (left), Juliana Falcon (centre), Kyle Prosper (right). Pic: Family pictures via Bedfordshire Police

Leader of Luton Council, Hazel Simmons MBE, branded the murders as “senseless” and said their thoughts were with the victims, their family and friends.

She then said the “revelation that the perpetrator had plans to cause further harm in one of our schools is extremely shocking, distressing and upsetting”.

The councillor sought to reassure parents by saying “our schools have robust systems in place to keep children safe and security is constantly reviewed and monitored”.

After recently asking schools to review their security, Ms Simmons said schools will be asked to further review their measures in light of what emerged from court on Monday.

“On behalf of the town I would like to thank and praise the excellent work of Bedfordshire Police for apprehending the perpetrator before he attempted to cause more harm.

“However, we know this case will be unsettling for parents which is why the council is working with schools to put support in place in our schools to anyone who needs it.”

Prosper also admitted a number of other offences, including purchasing a shotgun without a certificate, possession of a shotgun with intent to endanger life and possession of a kitchen knife in a public place.

He will be sentenced on 5 March and has been remanded in custody.

‘A cold-blooded attack’

Chris Derrick, a deputy chief crown prosecutor at the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), said the victims’ lives “were stolen in a cold-blooded attack”.

Mr Derrick said in a statement “the full extent of Prosper’s actions will be laid bare when he is sentenced, and he can expect to face a very long time behind bars”.

He added: “We hope today’s conviction offers some solace to those who loved and cared for them, as they mourn their loss.”

A friend of Ms Falcon previously described her as someone who “lived for her children” and said she was “a positive person who will be so terribly missed”.

A previous statement on X from the headteacher at Lea Manor High School said they were “deeply shocked” by the death of Giselle.

“Giselle was a beautiful soul and a model pupil, she excelled in all her subjects and will be sorely missed, particularly by her friends in Year 9.”

Read more from Sky News:
Girl, 3, who died in crash involving van and tram named
Children ‘screaming in sheer terror’ after van filled with fireworks set alight

Kyle’s school described the incident as “devastating” and offered “heartfelt condolences” to his family.

A previous statement issued by Cardinal Newman Catholic School said: “This is devastating news to all those who knew and loved Kyle and it will take some time to come to terms with the profound sense of loss.

“We know this will be a difficult time for students and staff and we will do all we can to support them with love and compassion.

“We extend our heartfelt condolences to Kyle’s family on their immeasurable loss, to his friends and to all those in neighbouring schools who are coming to terms with their own loss.”

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