Keir Starmer’s Trump trip is almost upon us – and the stakes could not be higher
Sir Keir Starmer will this week go to Washington to try to help broker a just peace deal for Ukraine with a capricious president who in just a week has unwound a consensus that was born from the ashes of the Second World War and had endured for 70 years.
How the Ukraine-Russia deal is struck will affect not just Ukraine’s security, but the whole of Europe.
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It is, in the words of the prime minister, a generational moment – and he is the man who has to try to meet that moment in a week that could prove defining for his premiership.
His task is to try to persuade the US to offer security guarantees for Ukraine and contain rather than embolden an aggressive Russia.
He also has to use his trip to try to strengthen the trade relationship with the US and persuade Donald Trump to pause any potential tariffs for the UK.
His team have been war gaming all the scenarios, and the prime minister will go with a clear message on what the UK is asking of the US and what it can offer.
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Sir Keir has already offered to put UK troops on the ground as part of any peacekeeping force and promised to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.
Trump is demanding markedly more from NATO allies, suggesting they should hit 5%, as expectations rise over the UK’s commitments on defence (Number 10 are refusing to comment, for now).
The prime minister will also, in a nod to Trump’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific, reiterate the UK’s commitment to AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between the US, UK, and Australia.
What Sir Keir and Europe need from Trump is some sort of US security backstop for Ukraine in any deal with Russia.
Up to now, Trump has parroted Vladimir Putin’s playbook, accusing Ukraine of starting the war (untrue) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy being a dictator (also untrue), while also ruling out Kyiv joining NATO and promising to normalise relations with Russia.
From the phone call with Putin, to cutting Europe and Ukraine out negotiations in Saudi Arabia last week, Trump has played the role of a strongman carving up the world according to spheres of influence.
Part of Sir Keir’s job on Thursday will be to persuade Trump that in this vein of “great power transactional diplomacy”, Putin is not his equal and playing into his hands will not secure a stable peace.
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‘I’m gonna get the war settled’
From MAGA to MEGA
On trade, new ambassador Lord Mandelson is talking up a “MEGA” deal (Make our Economies Great Again) by working up a proposal for increasing the £300bn worth of trade between the UK and US.
The hope is for the prime minister to come away from the White House with a commitment to begin a process of deepening trade and economic ties between London and Washington, which leads to a series of individual trade arrangements rather than a big bang deal that could take years to negotiate.
But if those are the aims, there is plenty of jeopardy for a UK government and the Number 10 team trying to plan a trip against the backdrop of a president they simply can’t predict.
Lord Mandelson has a big job on his hand as the PM’s man in Washington. Pic: PA
Could a rift open between old allies?
When I asked one insider whether they thought Trump’s attacks on Zelenskyy were a ploy to bring Putin to the table, or the president’s real views, they said: “The honest answer is we don’t know and that is part of where we are right now.
“We need to get over there and get a better sense of the president’s red lines.”
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For now, the Number 10 team are focused less on what Trump says and more on what he does, with the understanding that if his starting position really is his endgame, there will be a rift between two old allies.
Sir Keir’s problems were already piling up before Trump’s entry into the White House, and he goes to Washington knowing further instability in Europe – and potential trade barriers with the UK’s second-biggest trading partner – only makes his already difficult task of delivering a “decade of national renewal” harder still.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, or more unpredictable.
A woman who was stabbed to death in north London has been named by police – as a man was arrested on suspicion of murder.
Pamela Munro, 45, was found with a stab wound and died at the scene in Ayley Croft, Enfield, on Saturday evening, the Metropolitan Police said.
A 29-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of murder on Monday and is in custody, the force added.
Detective Chief Inspector Neil John said: “Investigating officers have worked relentlessly across the weekend to investigate the circumstances around Pamela’s death.
“We continue to support her family who are understandably devastated.”
Police at the scene at Ayley Croft in Enfield
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The Met Police has asked anyone with information or who was driving through Ayley Court between 6.30pm and 7.30pm on Saturday and may have dashcam footage to contact the force.
A “British man” has died after being beaten and set on fire by a mob in Ecuador, according to reports by media in the South American country.
According to reports, the man – who has not been officially identified – had been detained by police after being accused of being involved in a fatal shooting.
Ecuadorian news outlet Ecuavisa reported that the man had been taken to a police station Playas del Cuyabeno, a remote village in the Amazon rainforest.
While there, a group broke into the station and took the man away. He was then set on fire in the street, it is reported, and died from his burns.
The incident reportedly happened in the Playas del Cuyabeno area of Sucumbios province
Another local report, from EXTRA.ec, said that specialist police units had been slow to arrive due to the geographical conditions of the area – which is accessible by river.
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According to reports, police officers at the station apparently decided they could not intervene when the mob arrived out of concerns for their own safety.
It is understood the UK Foreign Office is following up reports about the incident and working with local authorities to confirm the details.
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