The rupture in diplomatic norms has left Ukraine and Europe reeling – as Russia’s full-scale invasion reaches three-year mark

Published

7 months ago

February 24, 2025

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In less than a fortnight, Donald Trump has shredded long-standing security assumptions about American support for Europe, creating a new crisis for Ukraine and leaving the whole continent in greater peril than at any time since the Second World War.

The dramatic unravelling of transatlantic ties comes as Kyiv marks the grimmest of milestones – three years since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, with fighting still raging along a vast frontline.

The new US president says he is determined to negotiate a peace deal with the Kremlin, but Ukraine and its European allies are fearful that a failure to prioritise Ukrainian demands will only embolden Moscow and set the stage for Russia to launch a wider European war within a few years.

Adding to this sense of gloom, the signals from the White House are relentlessly bleak.

Mr Trump has already unilaterally spoken to Vladimir Putin by phone, called Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator”, and is trying to force Kyiv to sign away hundreds of billions of dollars worth of its natural resources as a kind of payback for past US military support – which had been freely given by Joe Biden to fight Russia’s war.

The unpicking of the security blanket between Europe and the United States – woven from the ashes of two world wars – began with an email to the media on 12 February.

It contained the embargoed comments that Pete Hegseth, the new American defence secretary, was set to make that day at the opening of a meeting between some 50 nations to discuss assistance to Ukraine to fight Russia’s war.

I was among the journalists covering the event at NATO headquarters in Brussels and – presumably like most other defence journalists – had to read and then re-read the text as I could not believe what it said.

There were extraordinary reversals in US policy towards Ukraine, including a claim that it is “unrealistic” to believe Kyiv can recapture all its territory from Russia, a ruling out of NATO membership as part of any ceasefire deal with Moscow and saying that US forces would not be deployed on the ground to deter future Russian attacks following a peace deal.

But it was this line from Mr Hegseth that raised the highest eyebrows: “I’m also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being the primary guarantor of security in Europe.”

In one sentence, the defence secretary appeared to be confirming the worst fears of his European allies and Canada – that the US, under Mr Trump, no longer views the NATO transatlantic alliance as the bedrock of American and European security.

When he actually addressed the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting – a format originally set up and chaired by his predecessor Lloyd Austin, but now led for the first time by the UK Defence Secretary John Healey – Mr Hegseth’s European remarks were slightly softer, saying the US could no longer be “primarily focused on the security of Europe”.

Yet the stark message that European allies and Canada must shoulder a far greater burden of responsibility for their own security and to support Ukraine rather than rely on America – Europe cannot turn “Uncle Sam into Uncle Sucker” was a phrase Mr Hegseth used when speaking subsequently with the media – was heard loud and clear.

With allies already in a tailspin, the crisis deepened a few hours later as news emerged that Mr Trump had picked up the phone with Russia’s president – the first such call between the leaders of the two countries since before the start of the full-scale war.

The US president described the 90-minute interaction as a “lengthy and highly productive” conversation. Only afterwards, did Mr Trump reach out to Mr Zelenskyy.

The thawing in relations between Washington and Moscow and the new chill in ties between the US and Europe meant tensions were at a record high when top ministers from around the world met for an annual security conference in Munich from 14 to 16 February.

From a European perspective, US vice president JD Vance stole the show for all the wrong reasons, using his outing on the world stage to berate the state of Europe’s democracy, slamming restrictions on free speech and what he described as censorship.

The next-level shock felt by European capitals was palpable. Mr Zelenskyy was the other star turn at the conference.

He used his appearance to underline Kyiv’s position on White House plans for a peace deal with Russia – that no agreement on Ukraine could be made without Ukraine.

He also issued a rallying cry for his European partners to strengthen their defences and build credible European armed forces to better withstand the whims of larger powers.

But the president simultaneously had to confront the reality of Mr Trump, whose administration was ramping up pressure on his government to sign an economic deal with the US that would give away up to half of Ukraine’s natural resources such as minerals and rare earth.

He kept a brave face in Munich after meeting with Mr Vance, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

But Mr Zelenskyy’s smile started to fade as Mr Rubio and two other top Trump officials then popped up in Saudi Arabia for face-to-face talks with their Russian counterparts.

He was not invited despite planning to be in the region around the same time.

While billed as part of an effort to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine, the meeting in Riyadh was also focused on a rekindling of economic ties between Washington and Moscow – to the horror and disbelief of European and Ukrainian allies that have worked hard with Washington for the past three years to impose strict sanctions on Russia.

At the same time, Mr Trump started to become increasingly frustrated with Mr Zelenskyy for – in his mind – refusing to sign the minerals deal.

In a devastating outburst, the American president falsely claimed his Ukrainian counterpart had a 4% public approval rating and suggested Kyiv was to blame for starting the war.

Mr Zelenskyy – who had stayed quiet in the face of previous White House provocations – clearly felt Mr Trump had gone too far.

On 20 February, he retorted that he believed the US leader was living in a “disinformation space”, where falsehoods spread by Moscow were percolating.

This triggered an even more jaw-dropping rebuke from Washington, with Mr Trump describing his Ukrainian counterpart as a “dictator without elections” and saying he had “better move fast” to secure a peace deal or risk not having a country to lead.

The rupture in diplomatic norms has left Ukraine and wider Europe reeling, while Russia must be laughing.

Now no longer able to rely on Washington, Kyiv needs its European allies to step up.

A trip to Washington DC this week by President Emmanuel Macron of France on Monday, and Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer on Thursday, will be important moments to try to convince Mr Trump that to stand with Ukraine is to be on the right side of history.

But there is little from the past fortnight to indicate that he will heed any advice from European powers that he does not regard as his equal, has repeatedly slammed for insufficient investment in their own militaries and that have – as far as he is concerned – “freeloaded” off American strength when it comes to support for Ukraine and for wider European defence.

Rather than returning to being an ally, Mr Trump will likely instead stick to his mantra of “peace through strength” but only on his own terms.

This though raises the risk of more war when it comes to Russia as Mr Putin will surely want to test what else he can take from Europe if the US really is stepping back.

World

What recognising a Palestinian state actually means

Published

14 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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What recognising a Palestinian state actually means

The UK is planning to recognise Palestine as a state in a major shift in policy.

The announcement – expected today – comes ahead of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York next week.

While Sir Keir Starmer signalled the move in July, it was not made official before Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK, reportedly due to fears it could have dominated the meeting with the US president.

Here is what you need to know about the significance of recognising a Palestinian state.

What is the current status of Palestinian statehood?

The Palestinian Authority (PA), led by President Mahmoud Abbas, is internationally recognised as representing the Palestinian people.

The governing body exercises limited self-rule in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank under agreements with Israel. It issues Palestinian passports and runs the Palestinian health and education systems.

However, some trade, investment, educational and cultural exchanges are restricted by Israel and there are currently no Palestinian airports.

The landlocked West Bank can only be reached through Israel or through the Israeli-controlled border with Jordan. Israel also controls all access to the Gaza Strip.

Much of what would form a potential Palestinian state has been under Israeli military occupation for more than half a century.

Under the Montevideo Convention of 1933, there are several criteria before Palestine can be recognised as a sovereign state under international law.

The process requires the state to have:
• A permanent population;
• A defined territory;
• An effective government and international relations;
• Formal diplomatic processes including embassies, ambassadors and treaties.

The UK did not sign the 1933 convention, but in July some of Britain’s top lawyers wrote a letter to the government’s top legal adviser warning that recognising a Palestinian state could breach the convention, which they said has become part of “customary law”.

But others, including Philippe Sands KC, a professor of law at University College London, argued against this. He told The Guardian that the UN’s top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), has recognised that Palestinians have a right to “self-determination” – meaning a country determines its own statehood and forms its own government.

Is the move just symbolic?

The likes of China, India, Russia and many Arab states have recognised Palestinian independence for decades, but largely see it as a symbolic gesture, which has little influence on what happens on the ground.

However, in the UK’s case, recognising a Palestinian state could put the two on “equal footing” according to the Palestinian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Husam Zomlot.

This could result in strategic partnerships or lead to steps such as banning products that come from Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, Vincent Fean, a former British consul general to Jerusalem, told Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who was the first leader of a G7 country to endorse recognition, said the recognition would also come with a commitment that the PA would enact reforms, which, he says, would put it in a better position to govern a post-war Gaza.

Why is the UK acting now?

Sir Keir Starmer said in July that the time to recognise Palestine is now, as it would have the highest impact given the hope of a two-state solution – a “secure” Israel alongside a “viable” Palestinian state – was at risk.

He said it was part of an “eight-part plan” agreed with France and Germany, but denied it represented a U-turn after pressure from Labour MPs, saying instead it was always part of the plan to recognise Palestine.

Pressure has also been mounting on Sir Keir after Israel began a major ground offensive to take Gaza City on 16 September.

Despite widespread condemnation, Israeli tanks and troops have continued to push deeper into the city in a bid to destroy Hamas and force the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper called the operation “utterly reckless and appalling”.

The UK’s official declaration comes days before the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN General Assembly, where Gaza will be a major topic of discussion.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to talk at the assembly, but Mr Abbas has not been granted a US visa. It is likely he will instead appear via video.

What countries do (and do not) recognise Palestine?

As of September 2025, 147 out of 193 United Nations member states recognise Palestine. This includes more than a dozen in Europe, including Spain, Ireland and Norway.

Click, zoom in or search for a country to see their stance on recognising a Palestinian state:

Recognition from countries vs the United Nations

Without a full seat at the UN, the PA only has limited ability to conduct bilateral relations. This means a delegation officially representing the State of Palestine has permanent observer status but no voting rights.

No matter how many individual countries recognise Palestinian independence, full UN membership requires the approval of the Security Council.

Approval requires at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by the permanent ‘big five’ member states: UK, US, France, Russia and China.

If the Council approves the request, it goes to the General Assembly for approval, where a two-thirds majority is needed.

A state can’t join the UN without the backing of both the Security Council and the General Assembly.

In 2011, the Security Council looked at an application for Palestine to become a permanent member for several weeks but it was unable to reach a unanimous position, so a formal vote never took place.

Most recently, on 18 September, the US vetoed a Security Council resolution that had demanded an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages, saying the effort did not go far enough in condemning Hamas.

How have Palestinians and the Israelis responded?

When the UK, France and Canada announced in July they were planning to recognise Palestine as a state, the PA’s leader Mr Abbas expressed “thanks and appreciation” to all three countries.

Mr Netanyahu condemned the move, saying recognising a Palestinian state would be a “launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it”.

He says Israel will never give up ultimate security control of Gaza or the West Bank, and the decision to recognise Palestine as a state “constitutes a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of hostages”.

What about America?

The US, Israel’s closest ally, also remains opposed to official recognition of a Palestinian state.

During a press conference with Sir Keir in the UK on 18 September, Mr Trump told reporters he has a “disagreement” with his British counterpart over it.

In reaction to European allies recognising Palestinian independence, the US has imposed sanctions on Palestinian officials.

Within the US Senate, however, a group of Democratic senators have introduced a resolution to try and urge recognition of a Palestinian state – showing some divide in America’s two main political parties.

However, the resolution is unlikely to pass the chamber, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority.

How does this all link to a two-state solution?

Simply put, a two-state solution is widely regarded as the most viable framework for enabling Palestinian independence.

It would see an independent Palestinian state established alongside the existing state of Israel – giving both peoples their own territory.

Earlier in September, the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly – 142 votes in favour – to endorse a declaration outlining the “tangible, time bound, and irreversible steps” towards a two-state solution.

The declaration condemns the October 7 attacks by Hamas and the retaliatory action by Israel against civilians and infrastructure in Gaza. Israel and the US were among 10 member states that voted against the resolution.

The Palestinians seek an independent state in the occupied West Bank, annexed East Jerusalem and Gaza, territories that have been occupied by Israel since the 1967 Six-Day War.

Mr Netanyahu and most of Israel’s political class have long been opposed to Palestinian statehood, and argue that it would reward militants after October 7.

One of the biggest obstacles to a two-state solution would be deciding what the borders of a potential Palestinian state would be.

Many believe they should be the same ones that existed before 1967, but since then, increasing numbers of Israeli settlements have been established inside the West Bank, with around 600,000 Israelis now living there and in occupied East Jerusalem.

World

‘Better late than never’: Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be ‘courageous step’

Published

1 day ago

September 20, 2025

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'Better late than never': Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be 'courageous step'

Britain will be taking “a courageous step at a very difficult time” by officially recognising a Palestinian state, according to the authority’s foreign minister, who told Sky News she believes the announcement – expected in the coming days – will inspire more nations to follow suit.

The Palestinian Authority’s foreign minister, Varsen Aghabekian, told me Britain’s move was “better late than never”, and said “Britain, with its weight, can influence other countries to come forward and recognise, because that is the right thing to do”.

But she also said she is “very angry” with the White House over its “unwavering support” for Israel, and said that Israel’s refusal to pass on tax revenue was pushing Palestinian civil society to the brink of “collapse”.

Aghabekian was speaking as Britain, along with France, Canada and Australia, prepares to recognise the State of Palestine officially at the United Nations.

She told me: “Britain has been supporting the existence and the flourishing of Israel for some time, but I think today Britain is looking at the matter objectively, in terms of the right of people, in terms of complying with international law, and in terms of the future of this area for both the Israelis and Palestinians.”

She rejected the idea that recognising Palestine was a reward for Hamas terrorism, saying that “non-recognition” would also be a “reward to the extremists” and said that “if we wait until Israel decides it wants to go into negotiations with the Palestinians, then it won’t happen”.

Aghabekian told me she expected Gaza to be returned to the Palestinians, but I put it to her that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was being empowered by the diplomatic support he receives from America, and in particular, US President Donald Trump.

So is she angry with the White House? “Very angry, because I expect the White House and the United States of America to align with international law, with human rights, with having no double standards.

“This unwavering support for Israel, this blind support, is not only harming the Palestinians but also Israeli society.”

The state of Palestine is already recognised by three-quarters of the United Nations’ members. It comprises two separate territories – the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. Together, they are officially known as the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

The West Bank has been subject to Israeli military occupation since 1967, while Gaza has been attacked by Israel since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, when nearly 1,200 Israelis were killed and around 250 people were taken hostage.

Since then, more than 65,000 people have been killed in Gaza as Israel has sought to destroy Hamas and recover its hostages. There are 48 hostages still in Gaza, with 20 believed to be alive.

She confirmed to me that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, “has given guarantees in letters to various leaders around the globe that said Hamas will not be part of the governance of the Gaza Strip” and insisted there was “probably a worldwide consensus” on the topic.

But she also insisted it was “not reasonable” to talk of completely erasing Hamas: “Hamas is an ideology, not a building that you bring down. Hamas is in people’s minds; in their heads.

“Those who support Hamas need to see a future, need to see something that is moving on the political level, need to see that there might be a state in which their children and their grandchildren might prosper.

“What people see today, whether they are Hamas supporters or not, they see darkness and they see destruction all over. They see violation of rights. They are helpless and hopeless. People need to see things are moving forward, and once that happens, there will be a shift in the mood, and they will look for a better future.”

But just as the Palestinians prepare to welcome recognition, Aghabekian said the West Bank was facing financial collapse as Israel continues to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars of tax revenue that, under a 30-year-old agreement, it collects on the Palestinian Authority’s behalf.

Israel has retained a proportion of the money since the start of the war in Gaza, but, encouraged by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, it has recently withheld a much higher amount.

“People have not been paid, civil servants are only receiving small parts of their salaries. We can’t buy medical supplies, equipment, you name it,” said Aghabekian.

“How can a government run a country under such conditions? So yes, we are very worried.”

World

Dublin Airport terminal evacuated as ‘safety precaution’

Published

2 days ago

September 20, 2025

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Dublin Airport terminal evacuated as 'safety precaution'

Passengers have been evacuated from Dublin Airport’s Terminal 2 as a “precautionary measure”.

Flights could be “temporarily impacted”, the airport said in a statement.

It did not give any details about the reason for the evacuation but said “the safety and security of our passengers and staff is our absolute priority”.

At this stage there is no suggestion the evacuation is linked to the cyber attack that has caused disruption at several European airports.

“We advise passengers to check with their airline for the latest updates,” the airport added, saying further information would be provided as soon as it is available.

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