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Did you know there’s a critical product – one without which we’d all be dead – which Europe is actually importing more of from Russia now than before the invasion of Ukraine?

It might feel a bit pointless, given how much chat there is right now about the end of the Ukraine war, to spend a moment talking about economic sanctions and how much of a difference they actually made to the course of the war.

After all, financial markets are already beginning to price in the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Wholesale gas prices – the ones which change every day in financial markets as opposed to the ones you pay at home – have fallen quite sharply in the past couple of weeks. European month-ahead gas prices are down 22% in the past fortnight alone. And – a rare piece of good news – if that persists it should eventually feed into utility bills, which are due to rise in April, mostly because they reflect where prices used to be, as opposed to where they are now.

EU's Russian gas imports have fallen

But it’s nonetheless worth pondering sanctions, if for no other reason than they have almost certainly influenced the course of the war. When it broke out, we were told that economic sanctions would undermine Russia‘s economy, making it far harder for Vladimir Putin to wage war. We were told that Russia would suffer on at least four fronts – it would no longer be able to buy European goods, it would no longer be able to sell its products in Europe, it would face the seizure of its foreign assets and its leading figures would face penalties too.

The problem, however, is that there has been an enormous gap between the promise and the delivery on sanctions. European goods still flow in large quantities to Russia, only via the backdoor, through Caucasus and Central Asian states instead of directly. Russian oil still flows out around the world, though sanctions have arguably reduced prices somewhat.

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Luxury cars still getting to Russia

The upshot is Russia has still been able to depend on billions of euros of revenue from Europe, with which it has been able to spend billions of euros on components sourced, indirectly, from Europe. Its ability to wage war does not seem to have been curtailed half as much as was promised back in 2022. That in turn has undoubtedly had an impact on Russia’s success on the battlefield. The eventual peace deal is, at least to some extent, a consequence of these leaky sanctions, and of Europe’s reluctance to wage economic war, as opposed to just talking about it.

A stark example is to be found when you dig deeper into what’s actually happened here. On the face of it, one area of success for sanctions is to be seen in Europe’s gas imports. Back before the conflict, around half of all the EU’s imported gas came from Russia. Today that’s down to around 20%.

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But now consider what that gas was typically used for. Much of it was used to heat peoples’ homes – and with less of it around, prices have gone sharply higher – as we are all experiencing. But the second biggest chunk of usage was in the industrial sector, where it was used to fire up factories and as a feedstock for the chemicals industry. And that brings us back to the mystery product Europe is now importing more of than before the invasion.

One of the main chemicals produced from gas is ammonia, a nitrogen-based chemical mostly used in fertilisers. Ammonia is incredibly important – without it, we wouldn’t be able to feed around half of the population. And since gas prices rose sharply, Europe has struggled to produce ammonia domestically, turning off its plants and relying instead on imports.

EU is actually becoming more reliant

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Which raises a question: where have most of those imports come from? Well, in the UK, which has imposed a clear ban on Russian chemical imports, they have come mostly from the US. But in Europe, they are mostly coming from Russia. Indeed, according to our analysis of European trade data, flows of nitrogen fertilisers from Russia have actually increased since the invasion of Ukraine. More specifically, in the two-year pre-pandemic period from 2018 to 2019, Europe imported 4.6 million tonnes, while the amount imported from Russia in 2023-24 was 4.9 million tonnes.

UK fertiliser imports by country

It raises a deeper concern: instead of weaning itself off Russian imports, did Europe end up shifting its dependence from one category of import (gas) to another (fertiliser)? The short answer, having looked at the trade data, is a pretty clear yes.

Something to bear in mind, next time you hear a European leader lecturing others around the world about their relations with Russia.

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Health and beauty chain Bodycare in race to avert collapse

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Health and beauty chain Bodycare in race to avert collapse

A health and beauty retailer founded on a Lancashire market stall more than half a century ago is facing collapse amid a race to find a rescue deal.

Sky News has learnt that Bodycare, which employs about 1,500 people, could fall into administration as soon as next week unless a buyer is found.

City sources said that Interpath, the advisory firm which has been working with Bodycare and its owners for several months, was continuing to explore options for the business.

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The company is owned by Baaj Capital, a family office run by Jas Singh.

Its other investments have included In The Style, which underwent a pre-pack administration earlier this year, and party products supplier Amscan International.

Baaj also attempted to take over The Original Factory Shop earlier this year before its offer was trumped by Modella Capital, another specialist retail investor.

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News of Bodycare’s travails comes just weeks after the retailer secured a £7m debt facility to buy it short-term breathing space.

The facility was secured against Bodycare’s retail inventory, according to a statement last month.

Bodycare was established by Graham and Margaret Blackledge in Skelmersdale in 1970, and sells branded products made by the likes of L’Oreal, Nivea and Elizabeth Arden.

The chain was profitable before the pandemic, but like many retailers lost millions of pounds in the financial years immediately after it hit.

Bodycare received financial support from the taxpayer in the form of a multimillion pound loan issued under one of the Treasury’s pandemic funding schemes.

The chain is run by retail veteran Tony Brown, who held senior roles at BHS and Beales, the now-defunct department store groups.

If Bodycare does fall into insolvency proceedings, it would be the latest high street chain to face collapse this year, amid intensifying complaints from the industry about tax increases announced in last autumn’s budget.

In recent weeks, River Island narrowly avoided administration after winning creditor approval for a restructuring involving store closures and job losses.

Later this week, the struggling discount giant Poundland will seek similar approval from the courts for a radical overhaul that will entail dozens of shop closures.

Bodycare could not be reached for comment on Tuesday, while Baaj has been contacted for comment and Interpath declined to comment.

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Trump seeks to fire Fed governor, triggering fresh independence crisis

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Trump seeks to fire Fed governor, triggering fresh independence crisis

President Trump says he is firing a governor of the US central bank, a move seen as intensifying his bid for control over the setting of interest rates.

He posted a letter on his Truth Social platform on Monday night declaring that Lisa Cook – the first black woman to be appointed a Federal Reserve governor – was to be removed from her post on alleged mortgage fraud grounds.

She has responded, insisting he has no authority over her job and vowed to continue in the role, threatening a legal battle that could potentially go all the way to the Supreme Court.

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The president‘s threat is significant as he has consistently demanded that the central bank cut interest rates to help boost the US economy. Growth has sagged since he returned to office on the back of US trade war gloom and hiring has slowed sharply in more recent months.

Mr Trump has previously directed his ire over rates at Jay Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, blaming him for the economic jitters and has repeatedly called for him to be fired.

The Fed, as it is known, has long been considered an institution independent from politics and question marks over that independence has previously shaken financial markets.

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The dollar was hit overnight while US futures indicate a negative opening for stock markets.

Mr Powell’s term is due to end next spring and the president is expected to soon nominate his replacement.

Fed chair Jay Powell is seen in discussion with board member Lisa Cook. Pic: AP
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Fed chair Jay Powell is seen in discussion with board member Lisa Cook. Pic: AP

The Fed has 12 people with a right to vote on monetary policy, which includes the setting of interest rates and some regulatory powers.

Those 12 include the seven members of the Board of Governors, of which Ms Cook is one.

Replacing her would give Trump appointees a 4-3 majority on the board.

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He has previously said he would only appoint Fed officials who support lower borrowing costs.

Ms Cook was appointed to the Fed’s board by then-president Joe Biden in 2022 and is the first black woman to serve as a governor.

Her nomination was opposed by most Senate Republicans at the time and was only approved, on a 50-50 vote, with the tie broken by then-vice president Kamala Harris.

It was alleged last week by a Trump appointed regulator that Ms Cook had claimed two primary residences in 2021 to get better mortgage terms.

Mortgage rates are often higher on second homes or those purchased to rent.

She responded to the president’s letter: “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” she said in an emailed statement.

“I will not resign.”

Legal experts said it was for the White House to argue its case.

But Lev Menand, a law professor at Columbia law school, said of the situation: “This is a procedurally invalid removal under the statute.

“This is not someone convicted of a crime. This is not someone who is not carrying out their duties.”

The Fed was yet to comment.

It has held off from interest rate cuts this year, largely over fears that the president’s trade war will result in a surge of inflation due to higher import duties being passed on in the world’s largest economy.

However, Mr Powell hinted last week that a cut could now be justified due to risks of rising unemployment.

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New Look owners pick bankers to fashion sale process

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New Look owners pick bankers to fashion sale process

The owners of New Look, the high street fashion retailer, have picked bankers to oversee a strategic review which is expected to see the company change hands next year.

Sky News has learnt that Rothschild has been appointed in recent days to advise New Look and its shareholders on a potential exit.

The investment bank’s appointment follows a number of unsolicited approaches for the business from unidentified suitors.

New Look, which trades from almost 340 stores and employs about 10,000 people across the UK, is the country’s second-largest womenswear retailer in the 18-to-44 year-old age group.

It has been owned by its current shareholders – Alcentra and Brait – since October 2020.

In April, Sky News reported that the investors were injecting £30m of fresh equity into the business to aid its digital transformation.

Last year, the chain reported sales of £769m, with an improvement in gross margins and a statutory loss before tax of £21.7m – down from £88m the previous year.

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Like most high street retailers, it endured a torrid Covid-19 and engaged in a formal financial restructuring through a company voluntary arrangement.

In the autumn of 2023, it completed a £100m refinancing deal with Blazehill Capital and Wells Fargo.

A spokesperson for New Look declined to comment specifically on the appointment of Rothschild, but said: “Management are focused on running the business and executing the strategy for long-term growth.

“The company is performing well, with strong momentum driven by a successful summer trading period and notable online market share gains.”

Roughly 40% of New Look’s sales are now generated through digital channels, while recent data from the market intelligence firm Kantar showed it had moved into second place in the online 18-44 category, overtaking Shein and ASOS.

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