Coterra Energy shares dropped 3% on Tuesday despite the oil and natural gas producer delivering better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings late Monday. Capital efficiency was a highlight with output levels above management’s outlook range and capital expenditures near the low end of guidance. Revenue in the three months ended Dec. 31 declined 13% versus the year-ago period at $1.395 billion, slightly missing the $1.4 billion consensus forecast, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG. Adjusted diluted earnings per share fell 6% versus the year-ago period to 49 cents and beat expectations of 43 cents, LSEG data showed. Why we own it Formed by the merger of Cabot Oil & Gas and Cimarex, Coterra Energy is an exploration-and-production company with a high-quality, diversified asset portfolio. The company practices capital discipline and is a low-cost operator. Our lone energy stock, Coterra also acts as a hedge on inflation and geopolitical risk. Competitors: EQT Corp ., Devon Energy Last buy: Oct. 1, 2024 Initiation: April 14, 2022 Bottom Line Coterra Energy ended the year on a good note thanks to strong production on a lower-than-expected capital expenditure base. This is what we mean when we say Coterra is a disciplined, capital-efficient operator. It is able to get more out of the ground while keeping spending in check. There was some nitpicking around the company’s first-quarter outlook, which featured a lower-than-consensus production outlook and higher capital expenditures. However, the 2025 outlook was pretty much in line with what management provided in November when the company announced the acquisition of two assets in the Permian basin, a resource-rich area in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. But there were two noteworthy updates to the full-year projections: (1) Coterra is lowering its planned Permian spending this year by $70 million, driven by cost and service deflation and acquisition synergies. (2) It’s taking part of those cost savings and raising its investment in the natural gas-rich Marcellus Shale by $50 million to increase drilling activity that will impact next winter’s volumes. The Marcellus encompasses parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky. If macro conditions present an opportunity, management said it could increase Marcellus capital by an incremental $50 million in the second half of 2025 to deliver higher volumes by early 2026. This flexibility between basins and commodities is what has always attracted us to Coterra. If oil has a stronger outlook versus natural gas, Coterra can shift some of its investment activity toward more oily regions, like the Permian. If nat gas has the better fundamental outlook, it can flex some of that spending towards Marcellus to capitalize on the opportunity. “Although our 2025 plan includes significant oil investments, we also have flexibility if oil markets were to wobble. Rest assured, if we need to adjust our capital plan during the year, we will do so thoughtfully and explain it thoroughly. Flexibility is the coin of the realm,” CEO Tom Jorden said on Tuesday’s post-earnings conference call, which always held the morning after the results are released. Powering energy-intensive data centers that run artificial intelligence workloads is also an opportunity for Coterra as nat gas is the most immediate answer given many of the recent nuclear power deals with tech companies will take time to have an impact. Jorden, who will be on “Mad Money” on Tuesday evening said on the earnings call that the company is in discussions with “everything from good old fashioned combined cycle plants to, behind the meter type power solutions for data centers.” He added, “I think everyone’s still trying to figure out exactly what the end state looks like. But we have so many molecules and so many places that, we’re really well positioned to take advantage of some of this. And I’m hopeful we’ll have some good announcements coming before too long on this.” As for cash returns, Coterra paid out $218 million to shareholders in the quarter — split between $168 million in dividends and $50 million coming from share repurchases. The buyback was a step down from the $111 million spent in the third quarter but that was due to the company funding its Permian acquisitions and prioritizing debt repayment. Slower buybacks may continue this year despite $1.1 billion remaining on a $2 billion share repurchase program. As for the dividend, the company is hiking its quarterly payment by 5% to 22 cents per share, which brings the annual dividend yield on the stock up to around 3.2% based on a $27.25 stock price. That’s roughly where shares were trading Tuesday. We booked profits in Coterra in late January when the stock neared $30 per share. With the stock down about 5% since the trim, we are warming up to the idea of buying those shares back. However, we’re looking for a little bit more of a pullback to pull the trigger. So, while reiterating our 2 rating, we’re nudging up our price target to $30 per share from $28. CTRA 1Y mountain Coterra Energy 1 year 2025 guidance Following its announced Permian Basin acquisitions, Coterra provided pro forma 2025 capital expenditure, total production, and oil production outlook. The company tweaked the total production and oil production ranges but left them unchanged at the midpoint. The capital expenditure budget was also unchanged. Estimated discretionary cash flow of $5 billion based on recent strip prices. That’s higher than the consensus estimate of $4.64 billion. Estimated capital expenditure budget of $2.1 billion to $2.4 billion. The $2.25 billion midpoint is in line with the consensus of $2.23 billion. Free cash flow is estimated to be $2.7 billion based on recent strip prices. That’s higher than the consensus estimate of $2.375 billion. The company expects 2025 total equivalent production of 710 to 770 Mboe/d. The 740 midpoint of the range is slightly below the consensus forecast of 747 Mboe/d, which stands for total oil equivalent of a thousand barrels per day. Oil production is expected to be in the range of 152 to 168 Mbo/d and inline with consensus of estimate of 160 Mbo/d, which stands for a thousand of barrels of oil per day. Natural gas production is now expected to be in the range of 2,675 to 2,875 MMcf/d. The 2,775 midpoint is below the consensus of 2,808 MMcf/d, which stands for a million standard cubic feet per day. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CTRA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
In this photo illustration, a Coterra Energy Inc. logo is seen on a smartphone screen.
Coterra Energy shares dropped 3% on Tuesday despite the oil and natural gas producer delivering better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings late Monday. Capital efficiency was a highlight with output levels above management’s outlook range and capital expenditures near the low end of guidance.
On today’s fleet-focused episode of Quick Charge, we talk about a hot topic in today’s trucking industry called, “the messy middle,” explore some of the ways legacy truck brands are working to reduce fuel consumption and increase freight efficiency. PLUS: we’ve got ReVolt Motors’ CEO and founder Gus Gardner on-hand to tell us why he thinks his solution is better.
You know, for some people.
We’ve also got a look at the Kenworth Supertruck 2 concept truck, revisit the Revoy hybrid tandem trailer, and even plug a great article by CCJ’s Jeff Seger, who is asking some great questions over there. All this and more – enjoy!
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
Got news? Let us know! Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.
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Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
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March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
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However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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