What minerals does Ukraine have – and why does Donald Trump want them?
Donald Trump is ramping up pressure on his Ukrainian counterpart to sign away up to 50% of its mineral supplies.
Amid concerns Mr Trump would withdraw aid if elected, during a meeting at Trump Tower in September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly proposed a US stake in Ukrainian minerals in exchange for more weapons.
But since Mr Trump’s return to the White House, US-Ukrainian relations have become increasingly strained, with him branding Mr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and excluding Ukraine from negotiations with Russia.
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A Ukrainian source told Sky News that Mr Zelenskyy is “not ready” to sign the US agreement due to a “number of problematic issues”, with a leaked draft claiming to ask for 50%. French President Emmanuel Macron has lent his support to the idea.
Here we look at Ukraine’s mineral supply – and why the US wants access to it.
Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower in September 2024. Pic: AP
Which minerals does Ukraine have?
Before Russia’s invasion in February 2022, minerals made up 6.1% of Ukraine’s GDP (gross domestic product) and 30% of its exports.
It is home to various ‘critical’ minerals, so called for their use in technology manufacturing, defence systems, and green energy, with examples including copper, nickel, lithium, and titanium.
According to the European Commission, in 2019 Ukraine supplied 7% of global titanium, which is used for building nuclear power plants and planes.
Similarly, it is believed to have more lithium (used to make batteries) than any other European country – a suspected 500,000 tonnes.
Before Russia’s invasion, it was also responsible for a fifth of global graphite, which is a key material for nuclear power stations and electric vehicle batteries.
Other raw materials in good supply include coal, iron ore, and manganese.
A titanium plant in Armyansk, Crimea. File pic: Reuters
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Pre-war figures are the most reliable, as up to 40% of Ukrainian metallic minerals are now in areas occupied by Russia – namely the Donbas and neighbouring eastern regions.
For example, two of Ukraine’s lithium deposits are under Russian control – Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.
A graphite pit in Zavallia, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
Rare earth elements
Rare earth elements (REE) are a group of 17 exotic minerals used to make everything from smartphones and electronic devices, to electric vehicles, wind turbines, and weapons systems.
Examples include europium, a material for control rods at nuclear power plants, and gadolinium, used to make the magnets inside mobile phones – as well as holmium, ytterbium, and dysprosium.
They are not strictly rare – but their extraction and storage are highly energy-intensive.
With the details of war-torn Ukraine’s mineral supplies uncertain – it is not clear which REEs are present there and how much there are of them.
But in a pre-war assessment of 109 critical mineral deposits across the country by the Kyiv School of Economics, three were reported to contain REEs.
Ukrainian mineral data, seen by Reuters, has also cited cerium, neodymium, erbium, yttrium, and lanthanum.
Why does Trump want them?
Donald Trump has not been clear about which minerals he wants from Ukraine.
And as Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway says, there are far greater supplies of lithium, graphite, and titanium elsewhere, including in the US.
But what is far more certain is the role China has to play in Mr Trump’s demands.
As the biggest manufacturer in the world, China processes more REEs than any other country – with its deposits representing between 50% and 75% of global supply, according to estimates.
As a result, both the US and Europe are trying to reduce their dependency on Beijing.
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In December as Mr Trump prepared to return to office, China banned the export of some REEs to the US. Under Joe Biden’s administration, it had already restricted its US mineral exports.
In response on 1 February, the Trump administration announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports.
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Why did China restrict mineral exports last year?
Beyond the trade war with China, REEs and critical minerals are fundamental to the global green energy transition.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, to meet net-zero targets by 2030, we will need three times as much copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
This will mean a further 50 lithium, 60 nickel, and 17 cobalt mines globally.
The fast-moving developments on Trump’s Ukraine peace deal are dominating the G20 summit in South Africa, as European leaders scramble to put together a counter-proposal to the US-Russia 28-point plan and reinsert Ukraine into these discussions.
European countries are now working up proposals to put to President Trump ahead of his deadline of Thursday to agree a deal.
Ukraine is in a tight spot. It cannot reject Washington outright – it relies on US military support to continue this war – but neither can it accept the terms of a deal that is acutely favourable to Russia, requiring Ukraine to give up territory not even occupied by Moscow and reducing its army.
Overnight, the UK government has reiterated its position that any deal must deliver a “just and lasting peace”.
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Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20
The prime minister, who spoke with E3 allies President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the phone on Friday, is having more conversations today with key partners as they work out how to handle Trump and improve this deal for Ukraine.
One diplomatic source told me allies are being very careful not to criticise Trump or his approach for fear of exacerbating an already delicate situation.
Instead, the prime minister is directing his attacks at Russia.
Read more:
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Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a plenary session on the first day of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. Pic: Reuters
“There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians,” he said on Friday evening.
“Time and again, Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but its actions never live up to its words.”
Pic: AP
On the Trump plan, the prime minister said allies are meetin on Saturday “to discuss the current proposal on the table, and in support of Trump’s push for peace, look at how we can strengthen this plan for the next phase of negotiations”.
Strengthening the plan really means that they want to rebalance it towards Ukraine’s position and make it tougher on Russia.
“Ukraine has been ready to negotiate for months, while Russia has stalled and continued its murderous rampage. That is why we must all work together with both the US and Ukraine, to secure a just and lasting peace once and for all,” said the prime minister.
“We will continue to coordinate closely with Washington and Kyiv to achieve that. However, we cannot simply wait for peace.
“We must strain every sinew to secure it. We must cut off Putin’s finance flows by ending our reliance on Russian gas. It won’t be easy, but it’s the right thing to do.”
Pic: AP
Europeans hadn’t even seen this deal earlier in the week, in a sign that the US is cutting other allies out of negotiations – for now at least.
Starmer and other European leaders want to get to a position where Ukraine and Europe are at least at the table.
There is some discussion about whether European leaders such as Macron and Meloni might travel to Washington to speak to Trump early next week in order to persuade him of the European and Ukrainian perspective, as leaders did last August following the US-Russian summit in Alaska.
But Sky News understands there are no discussions about the PM travelling to Washington next week ahead of the budget.
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