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Ukraine appears set to sign a deal that gives the United States access to its mineral supply in exchange for continued military aid.

A Ukrainian government source told Sky News that Kyiv has agreed its terms with Washington.

Mr Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the mineral fund means US taxpayers will “get their money back and then some” for three years of providing weapons against Russia.

Ukraine latest: Zelenskyy to visit US on Friday

The idea of a deal first emerged in September. With concerns swirling Mr Trump would withdraw support if elected, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly suggested it during a meeting at Trump Tower.

The imminent signing of the deal comes amid strained US-Ukrainian relations since Mr Trump’s return to the White House, with the president branding Mr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and excluding Ukraine from negotiations with Russia.

Here we look at Ukraine’s mineral supply – and why the US wants access to it.

Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower in September 2024. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower in September 2024. Pic: AP

Which minerals does Ukraine have?

Before Russia’s invasion in February 2022, minerals made up 6.1% of Ukraine’s GDP (gross domestic product) and 30% of its exports.

It is home to various ‘critical’ minerals, so called for their use in technology manufacturing, defence systems, and green energy, with examples including copper, nickel, lithium, and titanium.

According to the European Commission, in 2019 Ukraine supplied 7% of global titanium, which is used for building nuclear power plants and planes.

Map of Ukraine minerals

Similarly, it is believed to have more lithium (used to make batteries) than any other European country – a suspected 500,000 tonnes.

Before Russia’s invasion, it was also responsible for a fifth of global graphite, which is a key material for nuclear power stations and electric vehicle batteries.

Other raw materials in good supply include coal, iron ore, and manganese.

A titanium plant in Armyansk, Crimea. File pic: Reuters
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A titanium plant in Armyansk, Crimea. File pic: Reuters

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Pre-war figures are the most reliable, as up to 40% of Ukrainian metallic minerals are now in areas occupied by Russia – namely the Donbas and neighbouring eastern regions.

For example, two of Ukraine’s lithium deposits are under Russian control – Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.

A graphite pit in Zavallia, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
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A graphite pit in Zavallia, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters

Rare earth elements

Rare earth elements (REE) are a group of 17 exotic minerals used to make everything from smartphones and electronic devices, to electric vehicles, wind turbines, and weapons systems.

Examples include europium, a material for control rods at nuclear power plants, and gadolinium, used to make the magnets inside mobile phones – as well as holmium, ytterbium, and dysprosium.

They are not strictly rare – but their extraction and storage are highly energy-intensive.

With the details of war-torn Ukraine’s mineral supplies uncertain – it is not clear which REEs are present there and how much there are of them.

But in a pre-war assessment of 109 critical mineral deposits across the country by the Kyiv School of Economics, three were reported to contain REEs.

Ukrainian mineral data, seen by Reuters, has also cited cerium, neodymium, erbium, yttrium, and lanthanum.

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Why does Trump want them?

Donald Trump has not been clear about which minerals he wants from Ukraine, although he referred to the agreement as a “deal on rare earths” on Tuesday.

And as Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway says, there are far greater supplies of lithium, graphite, and titanium elsewhere, including in the US.

But what is far more certain is the role China has to play in Mr Trump’s demands.

As the biggest manufacturer in the world, China processes more REEs than any other country – with its deposits representing between 50% and 75% of global supply, according to estimates.

As a result, both the US and Europe are trying to reduce their dependency on Beijing.

A chinese rare earth smelting plant spews polluted water
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A chinese rare earth smelting plant spews polluted water

In December as Mr Trump prepared to return to office, China banned the export of some REEs to the US. Under Joe Biden’s administration, it had already restricted its US mineral exports.

In response on 1 February, the Trump administration announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports.

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Why did China restrict mineral exports last year?

Beyond the trade war with China, REEs and critical minerals are fundamental to the global green energy transition.

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, to meet net-zero targets by 2030, we will need three times as much copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt.

This will mean a further 50 lithium, 60 nickel, and 17 cobalt mines globally.

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What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war ramps up

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What China could do next as Trump's tariff war ramps up

The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.

Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.

In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.

It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.

China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.

While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.

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Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump

The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?

It has said it will “fight to the end”, but what does that mean?

In reality, there are few good options.

There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.

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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.

Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.

The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.

It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.

Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.

In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.

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This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.

Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.

Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.

There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.

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Social media posts spark US markets upturn – before White House clarification sends them back into the red

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Social media posts spark US markets upturn - before White House clarification sends them back into the red

A rumour on social media fuelled a brief upturn for struggling US stock markets – but they swiftly swung back down again after the claim was debunked by the White House.

Markets around the world have struggled since some of Donald Trump’s new import tariffs came into effect over the weekend.

Tariffs latest: Starmer sets out response to US levies

The US markets opened on Monday with a fall for the third day in a row but briefly rallied and showed growth of over 2% at 3.15pm UK time.

The upturn came after a social media rumour claimed a top Trump administration adviser had suggested the president could be considering a 90-day pause on tariffs.

The origin of the false report was unclear but it appeared to be a misinterpretation of a comment made by a White House employee during a Fox News interview.

Asked if the US president would consider a pause, Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council director, said: “I think the president is going to decide what the president is going to decide.

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“There are more than 50 countries in negotiation with the president.”

Nearly two hours later, multiple X accounts posted identical messages claiming Mr Hassett said a pause – for all countries except China – was being considered.

The identical posts were picked up by some news outlets and stock traders, sending the markets skyrocketing.

However, when the White House said any talk of a pause was “fake news”, they were sent back into the red.

This brief upturn was market volatility writ large

It was the stock market as a spectator sport.

The moment, mid-morning, when a Trump aide had given a TV interview and subsequent headlines screamed that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs.

Suddenly, the markets went from red to green.

Make that green to red, just minutes later, when the White House dismissed the story as fake news, insisting there would be no pause.

Investors duly reverted back to panic mode.

It was market volatility writ large.

The stance inside the White House can be best characterised as ‘panic, what panic?’.

Donald Trump on Monday joked his way through a photo call with the Los Angeles Dodgers, winners of baseball’s World Series, ahead of his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

For those two men, there is much on the agenda, of course – not least the collapse of the ceasefire in Gaza.

On that, this will be an important stage in a grinding diplomacy that has ground to a halt around a ceasefire.

On tariffs, with Netanyahu, there will be a first look at how negotiations work with the punitive president.

Israel faces a 17% tariff from its largest trade partner and ally.

How to strategise a route towards the sweet spot?

With Trump’s first visitor since the tariff announcement comes a first test of how negotiations work and what they produce.

The world will be watching agog – as all the world has a stake.

Mr Trump has remained defiant despite fears that his levies could be pushing the US towards a recession.

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The US president has insisted the taxes are necessary for rebuilding domestic manufacturing and resetting trade relationships with other countries.

“Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!” he wrote on Truth Social on Monday.

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What’s going on with the stock markets?

Mr Trump – who played golf in Florida over the weekend – has also threatened an extra tariff on China, after Beijing announced a retaliatory levy on the US.

He said if Beijing does not withdraw its retaliatory tax, the US will impose an additional 50% levy on China and “negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately”.

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Meghan reveals ‘huge medical scare’ after childbirth

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Meghan reveals 'huge medical scare' after childbirth

The Duchess of Sussex has spoken about medical complications she suffered after the birth of one of her children.

Meghan revealed she was diagnosed with postpartum pre-eclampsia, a condition similar to pre-eclampsia which affects women during pregnancy.

In the first episode of a new podcast, Meghan described the condition as “so rare” and “so scary”.

“You’re still trying to juggle all these things and the world doesn’t know what is happening, quietly and in the quiet you are still trying to show up for people,” she added.

“You’re still trying to show up, mostly for your children. But those things are huge medical scares.”

While Meghan spoke about suffering with postpartum pre-eclampsia, she did not reveal whether it happened after the birth of five-year-old son Archie or three-year-old daughter Lilibet.

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What we learnt from Meghan series

Postpartum pre-eclampsia is a serious condition linked to high blood pressure which occurs most commonly within the first seven days of a birth, but can be a risk up to six weeks after delivery, according to the charity the Preeclampsia Foundation.

The NHS says symptoms include severe headaches, vision problems, pain below the ribs, vomiting and sudden swelling of the feet, ankles, face and hands.

Without immediate treatment, it can lead to serious complications including, in rare cases, convulsions, liver and blood clotting disorders and strokes.

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Meghan’s podcast, Confessions Of A Female Founder, is the latest show she has produced since the release of her Netflix lifestyle series With Love, Meghan and her new brand As Ever.

She has promised the podcast will feature “girl talk” and advice on how to create “billion-dollar businesses”.

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Whitney Wolfe Herd, founder of dating platform Bumble, spoke to Meghan on her podcast about the impact of childbirth.

The first episode was released on the same day Prince Harry appeared at the Royal Courts of Justice in London for the latest stage in his legal challenge over the level of security he is given when he is in the UK.

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