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How much have America, Britain and the rest paid Ukraine in aid since the Russian invasion? And do they have any hope of getting money back in return?

These are big questions, and they’re likely to dominate much of the discussion in the coming months as Donald Trump pressurises his Ukrainian counterparts for a deal on ending the war. So let’s go through some of the answers.

First off, the question of who has given the most money to Ukraine rather depends on what you’re counting.

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If you’re looking solely at the amount of military support extended since 2022, the US has provided €64bn, compared with €62bn from European nations (including the UK).

But now include other types of support, such as humanitarian and financial assistance, and European support exceeds American (€132bn in total, compared with €114bn from the US).

Divide Europe into its constituent nations, on the other hand, and none of them individually comes anywhere close to the US quantity of aid.

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That being said, simple cash numbers aren’t an especially good measure of a country’s ability to pay.

Look at US support as a percentage of gross domestic product and it comes to 0.5% of GDP. That’s almost precisely the same as the aid from the UK.

Looked at through this prism, it’s other countries which are clearly the most generous: Denmark, Estonia and much of the Baltics providing around 2% of their GDP – a far bigger amount versus their ability to finance it.

Still, compare the aid this time around with previous amounts spent in other conflicts and they are nowhere close.

Lend-Lease during WWII, aid during the Vietnam and Korean Wars, and even the first Gulf War, involved significantly bigger outlays than currently being spent on Ukraine.

That goes not just for the US but also for the UK, Germany and Japan, all of which provided more aid to the Kuwaitis and other affected nations during the first Gulf War.

Even so, it’s clear that the US and others have put significant resources towards Ukraine.

President Trump has been talking recently about recouping $500bn from Ukraine in the form of revenues from mining rare earth metals.

This is, on the face of it, slightly odd. Rare earth metals represent an obscure corner of the periodic table and play a small if important role in electronics and military manufacturing.

The entire market is small – making it essentially implausible that, even if Ukraine suddenly produced the majority of the world’s supply, the president could expect that amount of revenue back in return.

More to the point, while there are a couple of rare earth deposits in Ukraine, they have languished, unexploited, for years. They are so expensive to mine no-one has worked out how to extract the elements and make a profit at the same time.

And even if you presumed they could do, Ukraine would still be a relative minnow in global rare earths production.

Map of Ukraine minerals

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Assuming, as one probably should, that Donald Trump didn’t just mean rare earths, but was talking more broadly about “critical minerals” (the two are different things, but let’s not get too pedantic here), there are also one or two other promising mine sites in the country.

There is an old, shuttered alumina plant seized from Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. There is a large lithium resource which could, if all went well, be the single biggest lithium mine in Europe.

Yet even taking this into account, Ukraine would still be a relatively small player in global lithium. Not nothing – but not world changing either. Certainly not enough to generate the hundreds of billions of dollars Mr Trump is seeking.

Then again, Ukraine has other resources at its disposal too: vast seams of coal in the Donbas, large iron ore reserves in the south of the country.

Both of these are in or close to Russian occupied areas – which might, from the Ukrainians’ perspective, actually be the point. Old fashioned as this stuff is, it does actually generate significant revenue. It might be Donald Trump’s best hope for some payback.

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Steel tycoon Gupta’s troubles deepen amid Australian probe

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Steel tycoon Gupta's troubles deepen amid Australian probe

Sanjeev Gupta, the metals tycoon whose main British business was forced into compulsory liquidation last week, is facing a deepening probe by Australian regulators into his operations in the country.

Sky News has learnt that officials from the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) last week served Mr Gupta’s Liberty Steel group with a new demand for information about its activities.

Sources said the regulator had also taken possession of a mobile phone belonging to Mr Gupta as part of the probe.

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One insider said that other senior executives at the company may also have had electronic devices confiscated, although the accuracy of this claim could not be verified on Thursday morning.

Both ASIC and a spokesman for Mr Gupta’s GFG conglomerate refused to comment on the suggestion that a search warrant had been produced by the watchdog.

ASIC’s deepening investigation comes a month after it said that three of GFG Alliance’s companies had been ordered by the Supreme Court of New South Wales to lodge outstanding annual reports with it.

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It is the latest headache to hit Mr Gupta, whose companies remain under investigation by the Serious Fraud Office in the UK.

Last week, the Official Receiver took control of Speciality Steels UK following a winding-up petition from creditors led by Greensill Capital, the collapsed finance firm.

Mr Gupta remains intent on buying SSUK back, and has assembled financing from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, Sky News revealed last week.

SSUK employs nearly 1,500 people at steel plants in South Yorkshire, and makes highly engineered steel products for use in sectors such as aerospace, automotive and oil and gas.

“[Gupta Family Group] will now continue to advance its bid for the business in collaboration with prospective debt and equity partners and will present its plan to the official receiver,” Jeffrey Kabel, chief transformation officer, at Liberty Steel, said after SSUK’s collapse.

“GFG continues to believe it has the ideas, management expertise and commitment to lead SSUK into the future and attract major investment.”

“The plan that GFG presented to the court would have secured new investment in the UK steel industry, protecting jobs and establishing a sustainable operational platform under a new governance structure with independent oversight,” Mr Kabel added.

“Instead, liquidation will now impose prolonged uncertainty and significant costs on UK taxpayers for settlements and related expenses, despite the availability of a commercial solution.”

Mr Gupta wants to hand control of SSUK to his family in a bid to alleviate concerns about his influence.

One source close to the situation claimed that the ownership structure devised by Mr Gupta would be independent, ring-fenced from him and have “robust standards of governance”.

Behind Tata Steel and British Steel, SSUK is the third-largest steel producer in the country.

Other parts of Mr Gupta’s empire have been showing signs of financial stress for years.

Mr Gupta is said to have explored whether he could persuade the government to step in and support SSUK using the legislation enacted to take control of British Steel’s operations.

His overtures were dismissed by Whitehall officials.

He had previously sought government aid during the pandemic but that plea was also rejected by ministers.

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Nvidia beats revenue expectations in boost to AI investment and US stock markets

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Nvidia beats revenue expectations in boost to AI investment and US stock markets

The world’s most valuable company, and first to be valued at $4trn (£2.9trn), beat market expectations in keenly anticipated financial results.

Microchip maker Nvidia recorded revenues of $46.7bn (£34.6bn) in just three months up to July, latest financial data from the company showed, slightly better than Wall Street observers had expected.

The company’s performance is seen as a bellwether for artificial intelligence (AI) demand, with investors paying close attention to see whether the hype is overblown or if significant investment will pay off.

Originally a creator of gaming graphics hardware, Nvidia’s chips help power AI capability – and the UK’s most powerful supercomputer.

Nvidia’s graphics processors underpin products such as ChatGPT from OpenAI and Gemini from Google.

Other tech giants – Microsoft, Meta and Amazon – make up Nvidia’s biggest customers and are paying large sums to embed AI into their products.

Why does it matter?

Nvidia has been central to the boom in AI development and the surge in tech stock valuations, which has seen stock markets reach record highs.

It represents about 8% of the value of the US S&P 500 stock market index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable.

Strong results will continue to fuel record highs in the market. Conversely, results that fail to live up to the hype could trigger a market tumble.

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Nvidia itself saw its share price rise more than 40% over the past year. Its value impacts anyone with cash in the US stock market, such as pension funds.

The S&P 500 rose 14% over the past year, and the tech-company-heavy NASDAQ gained 21%, largely thanks to Nvidia.

As such, its earnings can move markets as much as major economic or monetary policy announcements, like an interest rate decision.

Sir Keir Starmer with NVIDIA chief Huang at London Tech Week. Pic: AP
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Sir Keir Starmer with NVIDIA chief Huang at London Tech Week. Pic: AP

What next?

Revenue rises are forecast to continue to rise as Nvidia said it expected a rise to roughly $54bn (£40bn) in the next three months, more than the $53.14bn (£39.3bn) anticipated by analysts.

This excludes any potential shipments to China as export of Nvidia’s H20 chip, designed with the Biden administration’s export crackdown on advanced AI powering chips in mind, had been banned under US national security grounds.

But in recent weeks, Nvidia and another chipmaker, AMD, reached an unprecedented agreement to pay the Trump administration a 15% portion of China sales in return for export licences to send chips to China.

There were no H20 sales at all to China in the second quarter of the year, the period for which results were released on Wednesday evening.

Previously, 13% of Nvidia’s revenue came from China, with nearly 50% coming from the US.

Market reaction

Despite the expectation-beating results, Nvidia shares were down in after-hours trading, as the massive revenue rises previously booked by the company were not repeated in the latest quarter.

Compared to a year ago, revenues rose 56% and 6% compared to the three months up to April.

The absence of Chinese sales in forecasts appeared to disappoint.

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Bonuses to rise for Ryanair staff spotting oversized baggage

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Bonuses to rise for Ryanair staff spotting oversized baggage

Ryanair staff are to get more money for spotting and charging for oversized baggage, the company’s chief executive has said.

Michael O’Leary said he made “absolutely no apology” for catching people who are “scamming the system”.

The reward for intercepting passengers travelling with bags larger than permitted will increase from €1.50 (£1.29) to €2.50 (£2.15) per bag in November, and the monthly €80 (£68.95) payment cap will be scrapped, Mr O’Leary said.

At present, the budget airline allows travellers a free 40cm x 30cm x 20cm bag, which can fit under the seat in front, and charges for further luggage up to 55cm x 40cm x 20cm in size.

Customers face fines of up to £75 for an oversized item if it is brought to the boarding gate.

“I make absolutely no apology for it whatsoever”, Mr O’Leary said.

“I am still mystified by the number of people with rucksacks who still think they’re going to get through the gate and we won’t notice the rucksack”, he added.

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Around 200,000 passengers per year are charged bag fees at airport gates.

“We have more work to do to get rid of them”, Mr O’Leary said.

“We are running a very efficient, very affordable, very low-cost airline, and we’re not letting anybody get in the way.”

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The airline does not support a European Union proposal to ensure customers get a free cabin bag, he said.

Air fares

After a 7% fall in air fares for the year to 31 March, Mr O’Leary said he expected ticket prices to go back up this financial year.

“We expect to get most of last year’s 7% decline, but not all,” he told reporters in a news conference.

“We have sold about 70% of our September seats, but we have another 30% to sell, and it’s those last fares, what people pay for all those last-minute bookings through the remainder of September, that will ultimately determine what average airfares are.”

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